The Air Transport Association announced that passenger revenue plunged 21% in July relative to the same month last year. This was the ninth month in a row that the industry has had to contend with what has been a brutal market for a perpetually beleaguered business.

The number of passengers hopping on flights fell 4% from July 2008 to July 2009, and the revenue situation wasn't helped by a decline of 18% in the average price a passenger paid to fly one mile.

Famous cruise line entity Carnival Corp. (NYSE: CCL), which competes with Royal Caribbean (NYSE: RCL) and The Walt Disney Company's (NYSE: DIS) vacation voyages, reported earnings for the third quarter on Thursday. The company held up well during the summer months. Revenues increased 11% to $4.8 billion. Earnings per diluted share did decrease slightly from a year ago, dropping two pennies to $1.65. But management reported that the number was better than expected because of lower costs and the positive effect of an insurance recovery. As far as Wall Street estimates were concerned, the bottom line beat by a wide margin. This item says that Carnival bested estimates by $0.07.

Another cool thing is that Carnival narrowed its fiscal-year guidance in a most positive way. Before, the company expected that it would book earnings somewhere between $2.70 and $2.80 per share. Well, now management thinks it'll do between $2.79 and $2.81. That shows confidence in the business, and it looks like the market is pretty happy with the results. Taking a look at the stock at the time of this writing, I see that is up almost 3%, and that volume is decent so far.

I personally would not buy Carnival at this time, however, even though there are some sound elements to this story. It does sport a very good dividend yield of 4%, but it's not close to the 52-week low, and one could argue that the upgraded guidance is confirmation that the stock could be a buy. Still, the market is volatile, the economy is questionable, and energy prices remain a concern. Plus, the earnings release did note some weakness in occupancy levels for advance bookings. I'd be fearful of looking at Carnival before a pullback brings the stock in a little. Long term, though, I do think the company will prosper, since I think it is a great brand in the leisure business.

Disclosure: I own Disney; positions can change at any time.

Investors/readers have probably already heard all of the bad jokes regarding Six Flags.

• "Things are so bad at Six Flags, it's now called Three Flags."
• "The only thing rising at Six Flags is the rollercoaster."
• "A contest offered a vacation prize. First Prize: a day at Six Flags. Second Prize: two days at Six Flags."

O.K., that last one was borrowed from arguably the greatest comedian of all time, Groucho Marx, but you get the point: times are tough for Six Flags (NYSE: SIX).

Six Flags has more than $2.4 billion in debt, hasn't posted a profit in years, and has a big hurdle next summer: a $288 million payment to preferred shareholders, The Wall Street Journal reported (subscription required). Six Flags' stock closed Friday down 10 cents to $1.02.

Attendance, down 3% in Q2, is expected to "decline by at least that percentage, or come in even lower" for the year stock analyst C. Leonard Bauer told BloggingStocks, adding that it's not an elaborate mystery concerning why Six Flags is becoming less of a destination of significance.

That the arrival of $4 per gallon gasoline has already propelled changes in consumer and corporate behavior would not be a revelation to most investors / readers.

Still, a prudent tack for investors -- or heads of households/husbands/wives, for that matter -- is to look beyond the short-term conditions and try to gauge longer-term trends -- trends that may uncover investment opportunities.
Short-term, oil is likely to correct, many economists agree. Oil at one-hundred-twenty-five bucks per barrel is well above what many economists and analysts believe is a price capable of sustaining adequate U.S. and global economic growth. Speculators have pushed oil higher than what it should sell for based on fundamentals, and a pull-back is likely in the quarters ahead. That will take some pressure off gasoline, diesel and heating oil prices.

But what about long-term? Short-term, gasoline prices should moderate, but is $4 gasoline a high point? Probably not, if current global oil consumption trends continue. What's more likely? Additional, steady rises in gasoline, diesel and heating oil prices in the years ahead, particularly if the U.S. economy shows signs of a recovery later in 2008.

The highly improbable may be happening. U.S. gasoline consumption may be arcing downward, The Wall Street Journal reported Monday (subscription required).

Confronted with near-record gasoline prices, an anemic-growth U.S. economy, and rising food costs, among other living expense increases, U.S. gasoline consumption has fallen about 1.1% in the past six weeks, on a year-over-year basis, The Journal reported Monday, citing U.S. Government data. Further, excluding Hurricane Katrina in 2005, which destroyed energy facilities, the six-week drop in demand is the longest drop in 16 years.

If the 'mini' trend strengthens or at least holds on a year-over-year basis, experts say it will limit gasoline price increases that typically occur during the summer driving season - - a period when U.S. gasoline consumption historically increases and oil companies increase gasoline prices to take advantage of that higher demand.

For Mac Murphy of New Rochelle, NY, a husband and father of two teen-age daughters in college, the rise in the price of gasoline is not an incidental expense.

"It's like an extra car payment, for crying out loud," Murphy said as he pumped $3.39 per gallon unleaded regular gasoline into his wife's car Tuesday.

Gas pump shock

Murphy pays for his daughters' gas bills while the two are studying at college. Each has a car. Up until about a year ago, the bills were about $20-$25 per month each. These days, they're sending back monthly bills that are routinely over $50 each, and those gasoline expenses combined with his and his wife Laura's gas purchases, means ..."about $300 dollars a month in gasoline expenses."

The family has done its best to limit gasoline expenses by carpooling and eliminating unnecessary trips, and next year the family will trade in one car for a substantially more-fuel-efficient vehicle. Still, given that he and his wife each commute by car to different locations, there's only so much they can do to reduce their gasoline costs. Further, Murphy says the expense "is only likely to increase this summer, when gas hits $4 per gallon."

When told by an inquirer that gasoline may actually approach $5 per gallon this summer in high-cost cites such as his metro New York region, Murphy was apoplectic.

In less-than-certain economic times, it's prudent to add one or two large-cap demonstrated business model performers to your portfolio, and with the aforementioned in mind, Disney is worth a review.

Disney (NYSE: DIS) is the world's second largest media conglomerate.

In general, analysts see adequate revenue gains on media network performance (including solid TV advertising sales), and relatively heavy traffic at worldwide theme parks.

Meanwhile, merchandise licensing revenue should be adequate, as should film revenue, with difficult year-to-year film revenue comparisons expected to lighten somewhat in F2009. Further, Disney's balance sheet is among the strongest in the sector. The Reuters F2008/F2009 EPS consensus estimates for DIS are $2.23/$2.39.

Delta Airlines Inc. (OTC:DALRQ) Chief Executive Gerald Grinstein isn't expecting a pat on the back when the airline emerges from bankruptcy. In fact, he's not expecting much of anything.

Grinstein, who is planning to step down when Delta emerges from Chapter 11, declined all management equity awards, payments or severance that he otherwise would be entitled. When asked why he's forgoing the money, Grinstein told the Wall Street Journal (subscription required) that Delta "is a terrific company, and I wanted to see it succeed if I could help." He will continue collect a base salary of $338,000.

How refreshing to find a CEO that understand that it's not all about him. The Journal points out that Grinstein already has amassed a fortune from his business career.

Of course, Delta's employees deserve to be rewarded for their sacrifices.

When Delta emerges from bankruptcy in May about 39,000 workers will share $480 million in lump-sum payouts and equity, according to the Associated Press, adding that 1,200 management employees will hold a 2.5 percent stake in the company valued at $240 million. Pilots and flight dispatchers, who are represented by unions, will not receive lump sum and equity payouts but will participate in profit sharing and rewards program in exchange for wage concession.

Once Delta emerges from bankruptcy, investors should avoid the stock for a long time. The future remains as cloudy as ever for the airline industry.