Analyst Upgrades

• Philip Morris (PM) to conviction buy from buy at Goldman.
• Peet's Coffee (PEET) to neutral from sell at Janney Capital.
• Cephalon (CEPH) to equal weight from underweight at Morgan Stanley.
• StoneMor Partners (STON) to outperform from neutral at RW Baird.
• Tibco (TIBX) to buy from underperform at BofA/Merrill.
• Apollo Group (APOL) to outperform from market perform at BMO Capital.

The calendar quarter winds down this week and quarterly reports are due from Apollo Group (APOL), CarMax (KMX), Global Payments (GPN), Krispy Kreme (KKD), Lennar (LEN) and McCormick (MKC). But analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters have high hopes for results from fertilizer and animal feed maker Mosaic (MOS), apparel maker Phillips Van Heusen (PVH) and discount retailer Family Dollar (FDO). So here's a look at what they anticipate from these three companies.

Mosaic

During its fiscal second quarter, Cargill agreed to distribute its stake in Mosaic, and Mosaic also said it would redeem senior notes. Analysts anticipate that the Minnesota-based potash producer will report per-share earnings of $1.07, a jump of 53.3% from the same quarter of last year. Mosaic also is expected to post revenue of $2.4 billion for the three months that ended in February. That's a 35.9% rise from a year earlier.

Analyst Upgrades

• Disney (DIS) to buy from hold at Wunderlich.
• Pike Electric (PIKE) to outperform from market perform at FBR Capital.
• Kindred Healthcare (KND) to overweight from equal weight at Barclays.
• UBS (UBS) to hold from sell at Canaccord.
• Avery Dennison (AVY) and Take-Two (TTWO) to buy from neutral at BofA/Merrill.
• Mercer (MERC) to outperform from market perform at Raymond James.

Last time around, I was bearish on Lennar (LEN). This was following the company's third-quarter report. Well, now we've got the fourth-quarter report to consider. Should I change my opinion?

You know, I feel like I should. Yesterday's price action was somewhat compelling. The stock experienced an increase in value of 7%. The closing price was $20.24, not too far away from the 52-week high of $21.79. The 52-week low for the stock is $11.93, so the shares are comfortably above that level.

Lennar Corp. (LEN) just can't seem to win much respect on Wall Street. Despite well-known fundamental issues within the housing sector, LEN has tallied a year-to-date advance of roughly 35% -- easily topping the 11.4% gain collected by the S&P 500 Index (SPX).

Wall Street seems less than impressed by this technical outperformance, though. Earlier today, S&P Equity downgraded the stock to hold from strong buy, joining six other analysts who maintain a tepid rating on the shares.

"Home Prices Are About to Bottom" was the headline for the Barron's cover story the week of July 14, 2008. The story explained that the housing market should level off in many areas of the country by the end of the year.

I have made some equally unfortunate prognostications in my tenure at BloggingStocks, so my purpose is not to poke fun at Barron's but to point out that here we are, over two years later, and it is still debatable whether the housing market has bottomed out.

Homebuilder Lennar (LEN) had a great session on Monday. It closed at a price of $15.14, which represents a gain of over 8%. Volume was quite active, implying conviction in the move.

The one-year chart appears to be a volatile one, but it's in the context of a narrow range. The 52-week low is $11.56, and the 52-week high is $21.79. Does the stock have what it takes to break out of recent resistance levels? Can we infer positive things from yesterday's price change?

Housing steps into the spotlight again this coming week. The release of the National Association of Homebuilders Housing Market Index starts out the week on Monday morning. Then on Tuesday morning, look for housing starts data from August. Release of the July FHFA House Price Index is scheduled for Wednesday. And numbers for existing home sales and for new home sales in August are due out Thursday and Friday, respectively. Overall, the housing market is expected to have continued to lose momentum in August, but less dramatically than in July.

Also on the economic calendar this week: Tuesday's FOMC meeting on interest rates, the Conference Board's Leading Economic Indicators Index for August on Thursday, initial jobless claims for last week, and durable goods orders data for August on Friday. No significant changes from the Fed are anticipated, but the leading economic indicators may rise a bit.

When Russell Sage was asked how to to become wealthy, he replied: "Buy straw hats in the winter." Who was Russell Sage? A Congressman from New York who was also a Wall Street financier who died with $70 million ... in 1906. His (sage) advice still works today, especially for stocks.

If you can buy stocks when they're out of season, or more likely, out of favor, you've got a much better chance of making money than when everyone else is jumping on the band wagon. The key item to remember is this: there are four seasons in a year ... every year, and when you buy straw hats in the winter (on sale no doubt), you know summer will be coming and their price will go higher. There are no seasons in the stock market. A stock out of favor now could stay that way for a long, long, long time. Even go bankrupt. So don't believe that a "cheap" stock now will automatically become valuable later.

Analyst Upgrades

• Jefferies upgraded Computer Sciences (CSC) to buy from hold and raised its target to $53 from $47. The analyst said Computer Sciences' valuation has created one of the best LBO opportunities in several years and could provide a five year IRR of 25+%.
• Keefe Bruyette upgraded Comerica (CMA) to outperform from market perform, citing strength of the company's capital. The firm raised its target for shares to $44 from $43.
• RBC Capital upgraded Nokia (NOK) to outperform from sector perform and raised its price target to $14 from $12. The firm upgraded shares based on valuation, reduced execution risk on software development, and potential catalysts from new devices based on Symbian^3. RBS upgraded Nokia to buy from hold after the company named Stephen Elop as CEO.
• Allstate (ALL) was upgraded to buy from hold at Citigroup.
• Coca-Cola Enterprises (CCE) was upgraded to buy from neutral at BofA/Merrill.
• Moody's (MCO) was upgraded to overweight from neutral at Piper Jaffray.

During an earnings season when most stocks have beaten their analyst estimates, Beazer Homes (BZH) came in woefully under expectations with a loss of $27.8 million, or 41 cents per share.

Normally, you would expect news like this, coupled with a housing market that looks shaky at best, to be a major deterrent to investors. But I don't think we should write Beazer off just yet. It could actually be an interesting longer-term buy opportunity. Here's why:

Cleveland fans are angry and still in denial, while South Florida is jumping for joy and celebrating the region's king catalyst for the housing market turnaround. On the evening of July 8th, LeBron James officially placed a catalyst for a potential bottom on the fledgling South Florida condo and housing market. Season tickets at American Airlines were already sold out in anticipation of the King James arrival to the city of Miami. In the words of Minyanville's Todd Harrison today, "Inspiration is a beautiful thing."

Nobody could be more excited and inspired with the King James confidence booster than the following employees of these six companies:

If you are looking for clues telling you which stocks have a good chance of increasing in value, you might want consider watching what insiders are doing. After all, talk is cheap, but when insiders put their own money on the line, you should sit up and take note.

Lions Gate Entertainment Corp. (LGF) topped the insider-buying charts for the week ending July 2 as insiders snapped up 7,071,774 shares of company stock at a market value of $49,502,418. During the past six months, insiders have increased their overall holdings in the company by 15.84% and now own 7.71% of LGF stock.