The New York Times [registration required] reports that American Home Mortgage Investment Corp. (NYSE: AHM) is shutting its doors thanks to the fear of its lenders -- who provide the wholesale money they lend to home buyers -- that they won't get their money back. Doug McIntyre posted about this here. Several of AHM's peers -- IndyMac Bancorp (NYSE: IMB) and Accredited Home Lenders Holding (NASDAQ: LEND) -- are also in rough shape.

Last October, I began looking for ways to profit from the collapse in the housing market. My best idea -- posted in December -- was to short shares of NovaStar Financial (NYSE: NFI) which dropped from $116 to $7.19. This post got the attention of a reporter from NPR's MarketPlace who dropped by my office this week to interview me about where the next opportunities for short profits might lie.

My answer is that I don't know. That's because the hedge funds, endowments, pension funds, and insurance companies that buy the mortgage backed securities (MBS) constructed from the loans that NovaStar and its peers originate are not disclosing the value of their MBS holdings. To identify short selling opportunities, I'd like to know this information because many MBS holders will be wiped out.

Continue reading Credit crunch hitting mortgages: where can you profit next?

Credit crunch hitting mortgages: where can you profit next? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 03 Aug 2007 10:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

American Home Mortgage (NYSE: AHM) fired almost all 7,000 of its employees late yesterday. According to CNN Money, the company will go into bankruptcy immediately.

AHM made $59 billion in loans last year, many of them with adjustable-rates. Many of the company's loans were to the middle part of the housing market and were no sub-prime mortgages.

Another lender, Accredited Home Lenders (NASDAQ: LEND), also showed signs of distress yesterday. After closing at $8.35 on Wednesday, shares fell as low as $3.98 Wednesday.

The mortgage lending fall-out is much likely to get much worse. While many of the problems with sub-prime mortgage problems have now been exposed, loans to more credit-worthy borrowers are likely to fall apart fairly fast.

A large number of adjustable-rate mortgages made in the last year will moved to higher, fixed rates over the next 24 months. Some consumers will not be able to make the larger payments. With home inventory rising and prices falling, they may also find it impossible to sell their homes, unless they want to take a large loss.

The mortgage troubles today may only be the beginning of a much uglier period.

Douglas A. McIntyre is a partner at 24/7 Wall St.com.

American Home Mortgage (AHM) gives up the ghost originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 03 Aug 2007 08:15:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Accredited Home Lenders (NYSE:LEND) volatility Spikes as LEND collapses 15%. LEND, a mortgage company originating, financing, securitizing, servicing and selling non-prime mortgages, is recently down $1.95 to $10.97. LEND August option implied volatility of 155 is above its 26-week average of 78 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price risks.

Rohm and Haas (NYSE:ROH) volatility stays elevated after reporting 2Q earnings of $161M. ROH operates five business segments: powder coatings, salt, electronic materials, performance materials and specialty materials that generated sales of $2.19 billion in the second quarter. ROH is recently up $.40 to $60.74. Goldman Sachs CO says "ROH continues to prove the benefit of its portfolio and geographic diversification as strength in Asia and Europe offset the weakness in the US. ROH August option implied volatility of 30 is above its 26-week average of 22 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price risks.

Daily Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

Option update 7-24-07: Accredited Home Lenders volatility Spikes as it collapses 15% originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 24 Jul 2007 12:36:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

MOST NOTEWORTHY:

• Openwave Systems Inc (NASDAQ: OPWV) was downgraded to Underperform from Buy at Needham, as the firm no longer believes the company's assets and balance sheet are worth $11/share and expects the franchise to be again disrupted due to layoffs and asset sales. Openwave was also downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan, to Hold from Buy at Wedbush after no superior bid emerged to Harbinger's, and to Sector Underperformer from Outperformer at CIBC World Markets, which cited reduced prospects of a buyout.

• Trump Entertainment Resorts Inc (NASDAQ: TRMP) was downgraded to Underperform from Peer Perform at Bear Stearns citing valuation as upside from a takeout at current levels is remote.

• Accredited Home Lenders Holding Co (NASDAQ: LEND) was downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Keefe Bruyette & Woods following its acquisition by Lone Star for $400M.

• Bebe Stores Inc (NASDAQ: BEBE) was downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Friedman Billings citing new merchandise that lacks a significant casual component to drive business, tough comps, aggressively planned inventory levels for 2H, and the potential for sustained negative comps during the next few quarters.

• Friedman Billings also downgraded Aladdin Knowledge Systems Limited (NASDAQ: ALDN) to Market Perform from Outperform based on valuation and challenges in the U.S. market.

• General Mills Inc (NYSE: GIS) was downgraded to Peer Perform from outperform at Bear Stearns on valuation and concerns with the turnaround plan for Big G cereal division.

Analyst downgrades 6-05-07: OPWV, TRMP and LEND originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 05 Jun 2007 11:40:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Just a few months ago, it looked like the subprime sector was destined for a complete wipeout.

Maybe not.

There are brave hedge funds and private equity funds that are moving aggressively into the sector.

The latest deal: Lone Star Fund V L.P. has agreed to shell out $400 million for Accredited Home Lenders Holding (NASDAQ: LEND). Then again, the stock was about $50 a share about a year ago.

Over the past few months, I'm sure management at Accredited has had lots of sleepless nights. They've been able to snag $230 million in financing from hedge fund Farallon Capital Management. There was also a sale of $2.7 billion in loans.

On the news of the Lone Star buyout offer, Accredited's stock surged 9.88% to $15.12 per share. It's actually about two cents above the offer and is an indication that the Street thinks a higher bid may come to the table.

Tom Taulli is the author of various books, including the Complete M&A Handbook and the EDGAR-Online Guide to Decoding Financial Statements.

Accredited Home's prime buyout deal originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 04 Jun 2007 19:10:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Before the bell 4-3-07: Stock futures rising as tensions fall, ahead of auto sales originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 03 Apr 2007 07:49:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading Accredited has 200 million reasons to like Farallon

Accredited has 200 million reasons to like Farallon originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 20 Mar 2007 15:19:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Volatility Index S&P 500 Options-VIX down 0.57 to 14.02.

Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) April option implied volatility-Risk stays elevated into EPS.
MS operates its business through four segments: retail brokerage, asset management, institutional securities. Investors expect to hear more about MS plan to spin off its Discovery Card, a company with 50 million card members and four million merchant /cash access locations. MS is expected to report EPS of $1.88 on 3/21 according to Thomson First Call. MS April option implied volatility of 28 is above its 26-week average of 24 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price risk.

Motorola Inc. (NYSE:MOT) volatility and volume Spikes on canceled CEO speech, LBO and PALM chatter.
MOT is recently up $0.46 to $18.74 on LBO speculation. Carl Icahn entities own 1.39% of MOT. The Chicago Tribune reported MOT CEO Edward Zander canceled his keynote speech at the cell phone's industry annual U.S. trade show, CTIA Wireless. Chatter is also circulating that MOT could purchase Palm Inc. (NASDAQ:PALM). MOT call option volume of 35,471 contracts compares to put volume of 18,121 contracts. MOT April option implied volatility of 35 is above a level of 30 from 70-minutes ago. MOT average option implied volatility over the last 26-week average is 29 according to Track Data. Increasing option volume and implied volatility suggests larger price risk fluctuations.

Note: The Daily Option Update is provided by Stock Options Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

Daily option update - March 20, 2007 originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 20 Mar 2007 14:01:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

After the recent pounding that the subprime mortgage sector has been taking, you're probably not thinking about its investment opportunities. But that's what I'll be talking about on CNBC at 11 a.m. with Becky Quick and Tom Gardner of Motley Fool.

There are two reasons for thinking there might be opportunities here:

• Investment banking put - Investment banks are putting a floor under the stock price of many subprime lenders. For example, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE: GS), Lehman Brothers Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: LEH) and Bear Stearns Companies, Inc. (NYSE: BSC) have all said they may commit more funds to subprime. Yesterday, Accredited Home Lenders Holding Co. (NYSE: LEND) added $3.39, or 56%, to $9.43, helped by apparent takeover speculation in the wake of its statement Tuesday that it would explore "strategic options." On the pink sheets, New Century Financial rose 68 cents to $1.35, more than doubling its share price from a day earlier. NovaStar Financial Inc. (NYSE: NFI) is also up 50% since it bottomed out at $3.43 on Tuesday.
• Picking the long term survivors - Not every industry participant will be wiped out. For example, Countrywide Financial Corp. (NYSE: CFC) -- which only has 7% of its loans in subprime -- added $376 million in cash for a total of $1.4 billion in 2006. Nevertheless, it is far from being out of the woods: it recently reported a rise in bad loans across the board -- i.e., payments were 30 days late at the end of 2006 on 2.9% of prime home-equity loans serviced by CFC, up from 1.6% a year earlier and payments were late on 19% of subprime mortgage loans [subscription required], up from 15.2% at the end of 2005. If it reports worse than expected damage in future quarters, CFC will drop further, which could represent buying opportunities that lower an investor's cost basis. Despite the medium term pain of such a strategy, if CFC survives until the next housing upturn, investors will profit.

Continue reading Subprime investment opportunities?

Subprime investment opportunities? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 16 Mar 2007 10:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Stock futures are lower

Before the bell 3-16-07: Futures lower ahead of CPI, consumer confidence originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 16 Mar 2007 07:52:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Note: The Daily Option Update is provided by Stock Options Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

Volatility Index S&P 500 Options-VIX down 1.47 to 15.80

Chicago Mercantile Exchange Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:CME) - April option implied volatility increases on ICE offer for BOT.
CME is recently down $14.94 to $548.78. The ICE announced an offer to issue 1.42 shares for each BOT share. CME and BOT announced a merger on 10/17/06. CME is paying 0.3006 shares for each BOT share. Shareholder votes by CME and BOT shareholders are set for 4/4/07. Smith Barney says: "if the CME/BOT deal does not go through, investors could bid up NMX shares on speculation of a CME/NMX deal." SBSH has a Hold rating on CME. CME April option implied volatility of 31 is above its 26-week average of 29 according to Track Data, suggesting slightly larger risk.

NYSE Group Inc. (NYSE:NYX) call volume heavy on spreaders adjusting on evolving Fundamentals.
NYX is recently up $0.70 to $83.01. The ICE announced an offer to issue 1.42 shares for each BOT share. CME is paying 0.3006 shares for each BOT share. Shareholder votes by CME and BOT shareholders are set for 4/4/07. Smith Barney says "if the CME/BOT deal does not go through, investors could bid up NMX shares on speculation of a CME/NMX deal." NYX call option volume of 38,141 contracts compares to put volume of 10,864 contracts. NYX April option implied volatility is at 33, puts are at 43. NYX 26-week average option implied volatility is 40 according to Track Data. NYX puts are expensive because NYX is difficult to borrow.

Option volume leaders today were: Accredited Home Lenders Holding Co. (NYSE:LEND), NYSE Group Inc. (NYSE:NYX) and Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:APPL).

Daily option update - March 15, 2007 originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 15 Mar 2007 13:52:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Note: The Daily Option Update is provided by Stock Options Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

Volatility Index S&P 500 Options-VIX up 2.30 to 20.43

Sepracor Inc. -(NASDAQ:SEPR) option implied volatility stays low on FDA request for new warnings. SEPR markets Lunesta, a prescription sleep aid and Xopenex, a treatment to prevent bronchospasm. SEPR is down .67 to $48.15. Dow Jones reported "The FDA said Wednesday it's requesting new warnings on 13 drugs such as Ambien and Lunesta." Goldman says "important catalyst for this year include the launch of generic SNY-Ambien on April 21 (which could threaten Lunesta trends) and the initial CMS decision on Xopenex UDV Medicare reimbursement on June 20 (final decision in September)." Goldman has a $55 target on SEPR, down from $59. SEPR call option volume of 3,026 contracts compares to put volume of 9,348 contracts. SEPR April option implied volatility of 35, below its 26-week average of 42 according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing price fluctuations.

Accredited Home Lenders-(NASDAQ:LEND volatility-call volume spikes: LEND rallies on chatter. LEND is a mortgage company originating, financing, securitizing, servicing and selling non-prime mortgages. LEND is recently up $1.61 to $5.61 on unconfirmed M&A chatter. LEND call option volume of 52,058 contracts compares to put volume of 36,681 contracts. LEND April option implied volatility of 210 is above its 26-week average of 63 according to Track Data, suggesting large price fluctuations.

Option volume leaders today were: Accredited Home Lenders (NYSE:LEND), Citigroup (NYSE:C) & Apple (NASDAQ:APPL).

Daily Option Update - March 14, 2007 originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 14 Mar 2007 15:32:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Note: The Daily Option Update is provided by Stock Options Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

Volatility Index S&P 500 Options-VIX up 1.99 to 15.98

Countrywide Financial Corp. (NYSE:CFC) implied volatility and put volume Aggressive on Hedging.

CFC, the largest U.S. home mortgage lender, is recently down $0.80 to $34.33. KBWI has an Underperform rating with a price target of $36 on CFC. CFC call option volume of 13,126 contracts compares to put volume of 22,720 contracts. CFC April option implied volatility of 69 is above last night's close of 52 and above its 26-week average of 35 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price fluctuations.

National City Corp. (NYSE:NCC) option implied volatility and put volume Elevated on Hedging.

NCC operates a banking network in Ohio, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Michigan & Pennsylvania with total assets of $140 billion. NCC is recently down $0.76 to $36.35. KBWI has a Market Perform rating and $35 price target on NCC. NCC call option volume of 4,597 contracts compares to put volume of 6,780 contracts. NCC April option implied volatility of 24 is above its 26-week average of 20 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price fluctuations.

Continue reading Daily option update - March 13, 2007

Daily option update - March 13, 2007 originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 13 Mar 2007 14:35:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

MOST NOTEWORTHY:

• Keefe Bruyette cut Accredited Home Lenders Holding Co (NASDAQ: LEND) to Underperform from Market Perform, saying the downturn in the subprime market raised liquidity concerns on the stock.

• RBC downgraded RadioShack Corp (NYSE: RSH) to Underperform from Sector Perform, explaining that cost cutting measures are largely complete and margin expansion estimates are too aggressive.

• Shuffle Master Inc (NASDAQ: SHFL) was downgraded to Hold from Buy at Jefferies, citing the lack of visibility into the company's placements and potential IP protection risk in Macau. Shuffle Master was also cut to Underperform from Peer Perform at Bear Stearns following the company's announcement that it will have to restate prior financial results.

• UBS downgraded shares of Marvell Technology Group (NASDAQ: MRVL) to Reduce from Buy, citing risks to HDD demand given upcoming launches by Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) of NAND-based Video iPods. The analyst expects HDD weakness to phase in and not collapse, but sees limited growth in the HDD segment.

• Roth Capital cut WPT Enterprises, Inc (NASDAQ: WPTE) to Sell from Hold, citing valuation, reduced earnings expectations and execution risk related to bringing the online gaming business in house.

• China Eastern Airlines Corp (NYSE: CEA) was downgraded to Underweight from Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley.

• China GrenTech Corp (NASDAQ: GRRF) was downgraded to Neutral from Positive at Susquehanna.

• RBC cut Nova Chemicals Corp (NYSE: NCX) to Sector Perform from Outperform.

• Sandler downgraded shares of OceanFirst Financial (NASDAQ: OCFC) to Hold from Buy.

• Citigroup downgraded Dollar General Corp (NYSE: DG) to Hold from Buy.

Analyst downgrades 3-13-07: RadioShack & Marvell Technology downgraded today originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 13 Mar 2007 11:24:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE:GS) reported a 29% gain in first-quarter profit, handily beating analysts' forecasts and investors probably could care less. Wall Street is waiting on pins and needles to find out whether the largest securities firm escaped the black hole engulfing suprime lenders.

As Bloomberg News notes, Goldman Sachs is a lender to New Century Financial Corp. (NYSE:NEW), the suprime lender that can't pay its creditors. Shares of the Goldman have slumped 8.3% since February 20 amid concerns that the real estate market will fall because of higher interest rates resulting in a slowdown of the economy, Bloomberg said.

Not suprisingly, New Century shares were halted yesterday after plunging nearly 90% last week. Another subprime lender Accredited Home Lenders Co. (NASDAQ:LEND) plumetted 27% yesterday and plunged another 43% in pre-market trading.

Suprime lending is bound to come up over the next two weeks when Bear Stearns Cos. (NYSE:BSC), Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. (NYSE:LEH) and Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) report earnings.

Did the subprime tsunami spare Goldman Sachs? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 13 Mar 2007 09:10:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

The Volatility Index for S&P 500 Options is down $.32 to $15.65.

Lear Corp. (NYSE: LEA) June 40 calls bid up on expected Buyout offer exceeding Icahn's $36. LEA, an automotive interior systems & components supplier, announced on February 9, 2007 that American Real Estate Partners, a holding company controlled by Icahn, will purchase LEA for $36 per share in cash. LEA June 40 calls are bid $.85, according to Track Data, suggesting buyers expect LEA to trade above $40 in the next three months.

Accredited Home Lenders (NASDAQ: LEND) volatility increases to 133 suggesting Aggressive Risk. LEND, a mortgage company originating, financing, securitizing, servicing and selling non-prime mortgages, is recently down $1.00 to $16.57. On March 2, LEND filed to delay its 10-K. LEND call option volume of 7,784 contracts compares to put volume of 16,687 contracts. LEND April option implied volatility of 133 is above its 26-week average of 60 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price fluctuations.

Option volume leaders today were: Google (NASDAQ: GOOG), Citigroup (NYSE: C), Altria (NYSE: MO) and ScanDisk (NASDAQ: SNDK).

The Daily Option Update is provided by Stock Options Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

Daily Option Update - March 7, 2007 originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 07 Mar 2007 13:36:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Cramer's STOP TRADING: First Solar and Chrysler originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 14 Feb 2007 16:39:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.