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Option update 8-15-07: Countrywide Financial (CFC) Put volume & implied volatility Spike


Countrywide Financial
-(NYSE-CFC) Put volume & implied volatility Spikes on sell off. CFC, the largest U.S. home mortgage lender, is recently down $3.16 to $21.40. CFC call option volume of 98,035 contracts compares to put volume of 191,635 contracts. CFC September option implied volatility of 141 is above its 26-week average of 55 according to Track Data, indicating larger price fluctuations.

ExxonMobil-(NYSE-XOM) September implied volatility of 31 above 26-week average of 24. XOM is recently up .65 to $83.76. Crude oil futures are up 1.02% to $73.12 according to Bloomberg. XOM September option implied volatility of 31 is above its 26-week average of 24 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price fluctuations.

Continue reading Option update 8-15-07: Countrywide Financial (CFC) Put volume & implied volatility Spike

Private equity borrowers and lenders battle

Last week, the battle between private-equity borrowers and lenders in the debt market that began to unfold in the middle of July hit the equity market in full force.

"Covenant light" loan packages that greatly reduced the terms borrowers had to meet became the norm in the beginning of 2007. However, lenders have now revolted. Major money center bankers are now stuck with $150 billion to $200 billion of loans that they have committed to for their private equity clients.

Borrowers, the Blackstones of the world, are reminding the banks that they committed to the loans, so they have to deal with them. The lenders, the institutions who buy the debt from the banks, are saying they are no longer going to be lenient with their lending terms. It appears this stalemate is going to last into the fall.

For equity investors, the unfortunate reality is that equity markets will remain volatile until this pipeline, which needs to be financed, is worked through. This huge pipeline can be viewed in terms of a widget company having too many widgets, meaning pricing will remain volatile until this excess inventory is worked off.

It looks to be time to pick stocks you want to own for the long term and the price points you want to own them at, stepping up to the plate while everyone else is panicking.

It begins with Beazer -- political backlash hits homebuilders

Beazer Homes USA Inc (NYSE: BZH), following in the footsteps of other home builders, has been reporting awful results. However, to add more fuel to the fire, a report by the Charlotte Observer wrote the FBI and the U.S. attorney's office in Charlotte, N.C., along with the Internal Revenue Service and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, launched an investigation of Beazer Homes last week. OUCH!

Everyone is going after this homebuilder. This is as bad as the political backlash following the tech bubble imploding which led to Sarbox.

Look for other district attorneys around the country to start going after other homebuilders and their relationships with mortgage brokers and lenders. Do you think homebuilders reduced lending standards in order to get rid of excess inventory? Why not when you can dump the loan in the secondary market.

The housing industry is getting uglier and uglier, as we have been blogging about for a long time. No need to bottom fish yet. Wait for the political backlash to crescendo before looking at this group again.

Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA-89.2312,801.23
NASDAQ-23.352,903.88
S&P 500-9.311,342.64

Last updated: February 11, 2012: 03:12 AM

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