level 3 posts
FeedPosted Sep 20th 2007 11:00AM by Eric Buscemi (RSS feed)
Filed under: Analyst Reports, Corning Inc (GLW), News Corp'B' (NWS), Analyst Initiations
MOST NOTEWORTHY: News Corp, Limelight Networks, Corning and Carmike Cinemas were today's noteworthy initiations:
- RBC Capital is positive on News Corporation's (NYSE: NWS) strategy of investing cash flow away from mature enterprises to fund high-growth initiatives such as Sky Italia and Fox Interactive Media. The firm initiated shares with an Outperform rating and $26 target.
- Kaufman Brothers rates Limelight Networks Inc (NASDAQ: LLNW) a Sell based on a significant increase in the competitive environment with Akamai discounting on large deals, Level 3 Communications Inc (NASDAQ: LVLT) introducing a competitive offering in November 2007, Korean major-CD Networks becoming aggressive, and new entrants becoming aggressive with their value propositions.
- Deutsche Bank initiated Corning Inc (NYSE: GLW) with a Buy rating and $31 target as they believe shares are fundamentally undervalued given the company's strong fundamentals and promising outlook.
- Carmike Cinemas Inc (NASDAQ: CKEC) was started at JP Morgan with an Overweight rating. The firm said the company is the most exposed to 3-D, which could lead to potential upside due to low margins and leverage capital structure.
OTHER INITIATIONS:
Posted Aug 10th 2007 12:15PM by Eric Buscemi (RSS feed)
Filed under: Industry, Level 3 Communications (LVLT), Bargain Stocks
Global Crossing Limited (NASDAQ:
GLBC),
Time Warner Telecom (NASDAQ:
TWTC) and
Level 3 Communications Inc (NASDAQ:
LVLT), had one heck of a rally the past few day, despite horrific market conditions.
Both Global Crossing and Time Warner Telecom reported very strong results. Global Crossing's stock is selling from $22, up from $17.50 earlier this week. Why? The international telecommunications service provider reported a 500 basis-point improvement in its gross margin. This is a company that had some of the lowest gross margins in the telecommunication sector a few years ago. EBITDA came in $4 million ahead of analysts expectations. A good sign for a company that has often missed financial targets.
Jefferies has EBITDA going from $144 million in 2007 to $388 million by 2010. The combination of better industry conditions and recent acquisitions bodes well for the once-bankrupt telecom provider.
Time Warner Telecom also reported strong results earlier this week and should be looked at.
Emerging telecommunications providers got hit pretty hard after Level 3's results came in lite. Level 3 said demand for its services was strong, but messed up getting new customers on the network. Investors were not sure to believe management. From the results of both Global Crossing and Time Warner Telecom, it appears the demand for service from these new service providers is most definitely strong.
Posted Aug 3rd 2007 10:32AM by Kevin Shult (RSS feed)
Filed under: Analyst Reports, Analyst Initiations, Level 3 Communications (LVLT), SanDisk Corp (SNDK)
MOST NOTEWORTHY: SanDisk (SNDK), Indevus Pharmaceuticals (IDEV), Integra LifeSciences (IART) and Level 3 Communications (LVLT) were today's noteworthy initiations:
- SanDisk (NASDAQ: SNDK) was initiated with a Neutral rating at Cowen, as the firm believes it could face challenges in Q4 NAND flash memory demand given supply.
- Shares of Level 3 Communications (NASDAQ: LVLT) were initiated at Raymond James with an Underperform rating, as the firm believes estimates will be difficult to achieve given high debt levels and free cash flow.
OTHER INITIATIONS:
- Goldman Sachs started shares of Herbalife (NYSE: HLF) with a Buy rating and $50 target.
Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).Posted Aug 1st 2007 12:32PM by Eric Buscemi (RSS feed)
Filed under: Home Depot (HD), Level 3 Communications (LVLT), Bargain Stocks, Stocks to Buy
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With weak futures this morning and panic selling at the end of the trading day yesterday, it is time to start looking at buying some stock. The market is so oversold it could mean we are due for a pretty good short term rally. Stocks to consider include:
- Home Depot Inc. (NYSE: HD) -- Barron's was on target this past weekend writing that the home-improvement retailer could have considerable upside in the years ahead. The company still has a tender on the market between $39 and $44, the record day of which may have passed, but there is $10 to $12 billion in buybacks still to come.
- National Semiconductor Corporation (NYSE: NSM) -- iPhones are selling and the move to wireless is still the rage, which fits into this wireless semiconductors sweet spot. Following a strong earnings report and a huge share repurchase agreement, the stock rallied to $29.60, but it is now down below $26, essentially erasing all the gains for the good earnings. This is a good entry point.
- AES Corporation (NYSE: AES) -- The Fly blogged about this one the other day, with the stock down 15% from its recent high, and continuing to trade poorly, this stock may be worth scooping up.
We
blogged about a trading opportunity in
Level 3 Communications Inc (NASDAQ:
LVLT) the other day, and the stock rallied from $5.00 to $5.40. For those who were nimble enough to sell into yesterday's strength, that trade worked out well. The trades listed above should also work out well as this oversold market has a short-term rebound.
Posted Jul 27th 2007 9:50AM by Eric Buscemi (RSS feed)
Filed under: Earnings Reports, Level 3 Communications (LVLT)
Level 3 Communications (NASDAQ:
LVLT), the IP telecommunications company, got hit pretty good yesterday due to the market's broad-based sell-off and its coming up
short on revenue.
Management cited integration issues due to its seven recently completed acquisitions as the prime reason. The sales backlog is increasing but it is slow bringing customers on to its network. Level 3 will be a show-me stock for the next few quarters as management will have to hit their numbers to regain investors' confidence. October is expected to be another weak quarter, but business is expected to ramp in 4Q.
However, with what looks like a weak or a flat opening this morning in combination with yesterday's sell off, a quick recoil is possible from its oversold condition for traders to make a nice profit on.
Posted Jul 19th 2007 10:51AM by Kevin Kelly (RSS feed)
Filed under: Bad News, Consumer Experience, Competitive Strategy, Ciena Corp (CIEN), Level 3 Communications (LVLT), Vonage Holdings (VG)
When companies discontinue operations it's one thing, but when a company ceases operations without warning its customers something is fishy. When SunRocket
did just this, red flags appeared in my head. Companies don't just close their doors one days for no reason, but it appears that SunRocket did just this:
"At the company's Tysons Corner headquarters, the phones went unanswered, the doors were locked and a cardboard sign with "Out of Business" scribbled on it hung inside the glass front door."Obviously consumers who used the company's services were out of luck for the day, but it didn't stop there. In fact, many of these consumers paid for their services well in advance.
Although this seems like an isolated event, it casts further doubt on the entire VoIP industry. As a result, the primary VoIP provider in America,
Vonage (NYSE:
VG) is likely to lose some (more?) credibility. That being said, for many consumers the benefits VoIP offers over traditional phonelines are powerful enough to let them "roll the dice" once again. Some followers of this space who I spoke to are going as far as to say this could help Vonage because they will gain some of SunRocket's business, but I'm not sure about that and the impact wouldn't be significant because SunRocket's total customer base was about 10% of Vonage's current customer base.
However, if
8x8 (NASDAQ:
EGHT) could pick up SunRocket's accounts, the stock would most certainly fly because of its small size - $82 million - and 8.7 short ratio.
Continue reading More bad news for VoIP industry
Posted Jul 17th 2007 2:59PM by Kevin Kelly (RSS feed)
Filed under: Columns, Ciena Corp (CIEN), Under Armour'A' (UA), Level 3 Communications (LVLT)
Is it ever OK to forget valuation? Yes -- if you have the right mindset.
Once I learned how companies were valued, and how to value companies, I found it increasingly difficult to trade stocks that I may have found interesting before. The idea behind investing is that the stock market offers you businesses at premiums and discounts to their values. Obviously, to make money, you try to purchase the stocks with the deepest discounts and wait for the market to realize their value. However, this certainly has its flaws -- namely, you might have valued the company incorrectly. If you have too much conviction in this valuation, you can stand to lose a lot of money.
Trading is different from investing because you don't look at a stock as a business -- you look at it is a "stock." This mindset has its benefits over investing -- primarily the fact that money management becomes much easier because you can quickly cut losses without guilt.
Prior to learning about the concepts of value investing, I would guiltlessly trade in and out of stocks based on which sector was hot, momentum in earnings, and even momentum in price. And I happened to do well, but when another commitment came up (school) I was forced to shift to a more long-term mindset.
Continue reading Is it ever OK to forget valuation?
Posted Jul 12th 2007 1:15PM by Kevin Kelly (RSS feed)
Filed under: Deals, Competitive Strategy, Level 3 Communications (LVLT), Akamai Technologies (AKAM)
Level 3 Communications Inc. (NASDAQ:
LVLT)
announced its acquisition of
Servecast, an Irish broadband and mobile video provider for $45 million. In terms of the cost of this deal, I wouldn't think much of it. This clearly wasn't an acquisition meant to quickly bolster Level 3's financial figures, considering Servecast only had $5 million in sales in 2006. However, this acquisition should help LVLT in its battle against
Akamai Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ:
AKAM) in the web video space, even if it is not as significant as the Savvis acquisition. According to one analyst at a hedge fund I spoke to, although this acquisition is rather small in terms of size, he is "sure it will help" as the company becomes a more formidable competitor to AKAM. Anyone who has followed
AKAM over the last two years realizes how lucrative the web video space is in today's "Web 2.0" age in which online video is becoming more prominent by the day.
But this isn't what all of you care about! You want investment ideas! While the stock isn't appealing to the deep value investor in me (low multiples, hopefully low debt, etc.), the stock is very interesting and I believe it has tremendous upside potential in the next year and a half as the company's acquisitions finally come to fruition and integration is completed.
Continue reading Level 3 makes acquisition, stock looks attractive
Posted Jul 3rd 2007 11:05AM by Eric Buscemi (RSS feed)
Filed under: Google (GOOG), Microsoft (MSFT), Level 3 Communications (LVLT), Bargain Stocks, Stocks to Buy
Savvis Inc (NASDAQ:
SVVS) announced transaction with
Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:
MSFT) yesterday is another clear sign that the datacenter business is here to stay.
Savvis announced that Microsoft would assume leases for 300,000 square feet of datacenter space in Santa Clara that Savvis controls, the heartland of Silicon Valley. In return, Savvis receives $200 million. Microsoft gets greater control of more datacenter space and Savvis gets rid of below-market-rate leases that were signed when the industry was in the dump.
We began blogging that investors should jump into Savvis in April 2006 when the stock was selling for $26. Today, the stock is at $50, just shy of 100% profit. The datacenter industry was a boom-bust posterchild sector for Internet 1.0. Many of these companies went into or flirted with bankruptcy.
However, while the two largest stand-alone datacenter companies, Savvis along with
Equinix Inc (NASDAQ:
EQIX), have done considerably well since we started blogging about their merits as investments over one year ago, these stocks are still underfollowed and underknown. The fundamentals of this industry continue to improve and the barriers to entry continue to expand.
Stay with both Savvis and Equinix, and if you do not own them, I'd suggest buying them and putting them away. These are difficult assets to build and maintain and companies such as Microsoft,
Google Inc (NASDAQ:
GOOG) and
Level 3 Communications Inc (NASDAQ:
LVLT) want to own more of them.
Posted Jun 25th 2007 2:55PM by Eric Buscemi (RSS feed)
Filed under: Google (GOOG), Cisco Systems (CSCO), Wal-Mart (WMT), Home Depot (HD), Ciena Corp (CIEN), News Corp'B' (NWS), Level 3 Communications (LVLT)
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Typically, a growth stock is defined by rapid revenue and profit growth. Does this make commodity companies growth stocks? Revenue and profits are soaring, but the reality is volume growth for many commodities is unspectacular, with demand increasing in the low-to-mid single digits.
When Henry Ford came up with the Model T, most other automobile manufacturers would produce several hundred cars per year and charge several thousand dollars per car, according to Wall Street historian John Steele Gordon in this weekend's
Barron's. In 1908, Ford made 10,607 Model Ts, selling them for $850 each. By utilizing the assembly line, Ford was able to drive down cost, which, in turn, permitted him to charge customers less. Lower prices meant more Americans could afford automobiles, translating into huge volume growth and massive economies of scale for Ford Motor and its part suppliers.
By 1916, Model Ts were being assembled in only 93 minutes and the price dropped to $360, according to Gordon. Ford Motor sold 730,041 Model Ts that year and had 50% global market share. Volume in the auto industry was no longer being defined by a few hundred but by hundreds of thousand if not a million cars produced each year.
What industries demonstrate these characteristics today? It is not the auto sector any longer, that's for sure.
Wal-Mart Stores (NYSE:
WMT) and
Home Depot Inc (NYSE:
HD) successfully played the economies-of-scale curve for decades. Semiconductors and technologies are still on this curve. Moore's Law is all about playing this strength.
Continue reading Targeting growth industries
Posted Jun 21st 2007 3:40PM by Jon Ogg (RSS feed)
Filed under: Analyst Reports, Intel (INTC), Ciena Corp (CIEN), EMC Corp (EMC), Level 3 Communications (LVLT), SanDisk Corp (SNDK)
Jim Cramer came out on
STOP TRADING on CNBC and said,
"Tech is roaring.
" He noted that this is where the money is today, and therefore that is where the trade is. Here are the tech stocks he commented on:
Level 3 Communications (NASDAQ:
LVLT) is the trade for the growth of YouTube's 70% growth each week (that was one of his top picks for the year). He thinks
Intel (NASDAQ:
INTC) can go to to $27.00,
NVIDIA (NASDAQ:
NVDA) can go $7 higher,
SanDisk (NASDAQ:
SNDK) can go to $50,
EMC (NYSE:
EMC) is obviously headed to $20.00, and
Ciena (NASDAQ:
CIEN) looks good.
He did note these are all trades, not long-term plays yet. But, so much for
"tech is dead until August" as he was maintaining before. Frankly, Level 3 is not a surprise as this was
his top speculative stock pick for 2007. He's already been positive on NVIDIA as a speculative stock just recently. As for the rest of it,
calling for the calendar as the true read year in and year out, is just not the right call. That's my opinion anyway.
Jon Ogg is a partner at 24/7 Wall St.; he does not own securities in any of the companies he covers.Posted Apr 27th 2007 10:11AM by Eric Buscemi (RSS feed)
Filed under: Earnings Reports, Level 3 Communications (LVLT)
Level 3 Communications Inc (NASDAQ:
LVLT) reported
very solid results yesterday, however, the organic growth rate seemed to slip from its 24% target down to 17%. This led to the stock getting hit a bit by investors in yesterday's trading.
I would use this price weakness to buy the stock.
Supposedly, Level 3 walked away from weak pricing in the enterprise business, something it can now afford to do since its balance sheet is in much stronger shape. What is also a positive is that most of the restrictive loan covenant agreements on its debt are now gone, which means it can focus on profitability and not revenue generation, which was a covenant that drove business decisions in the past.
Level 3 also remains on the path to being free cash flow positive, which has proven a boon for communications stock prices previously.
The other positive for Level 3 is that video usage is ramping up but revenue has not as of yet. This means when video pricing takes hold, Level 3 revenue growth should accelerate considerably.
The dynamics of this business are two powerful to ignore. I'd use the price weakness to buy this stock and put away.
Posted Mar 14th 2007 9:50AM by Eric Buscemi (RSS feed)
Filed under: Expedia Inc (EXPE), Level 3 Communications (LVLT)
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Stocks that have held up best during this correction are most likely showing us where investor conviction is the strongest.
For example, one area that has held up surprising well is the Internet Protocol transport sector. Companies like Level 3 Communications Inc (NASDAQ:
LVLT), Global Crossing Ltd (NADSAQ:
GLBC), and Time Warner Telecom Inc (NASDAQ:
TWTC) have changed little in price.
In previous corrections, these IP transport stocks would get crushed. However, that is not the case anymore.
This is a sign to stay with these stock and add to your position as the broader market continues to correct. If investors aren't selling these stocks now, it most likely indicates confidence is building in this space.
Additionally, Expedia inc (NASDAQ:
EXPE), the online travel giant, has also held up very well, changing little in price during this correction. The stock has traded all over the place in previous corrections. This is a sign that investor confidence is improving here also.
All four stocks mentioned in this blog have good unit volume growth, operate low-cost businesses and appear to have pricing power returning to their industry -- a good combination to make some good money.
Posted Mar 12th 2007 11:02AM by Kevin Shult (RSS feed)
Filed under: Before the Bell, Analyst Upgrades and Downgrades, Bad News, Advanced Micro Dev (AMD), Amgen Inc (AMGN), Level 3 Communications (LVLT)
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Amgen, Inc (AMGN), Secure Computing Corp (SCUR), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and Level 3 Communications (LVLT) were some of today's more notable downgrades:
- UBS downgraded shares of Amgen Inc (NASDAQ: AMGN) to Reduce from Neutral as the firm believes most Medicare carriers will drop reimbursement for Aranesp in certain types of anemia due to safety concerns.
- Goldman Sachs cut Secure Computing Corp (NASDAQ: SCUR) to Sell from Neutral, citing valuation.
- Thomas Weisel believes Advanced Micro Devices (NYSE: AMD) will have a difficult time regaining lost channel share from Intel (INTC) without additional price cuts, downgrading shares to Market Weight to Overweight.
- Buckingham cut Level 3 Communications (NASDAQ: LVLT) to Accumulate from Strong Buy on valuation.
OTHER DOWNGRADES:
- Deutsche Bank downgraded shares of Edison International (NYSE: EIX) to Hold from Buy.
- Wachovia downgraded shares of Countrywide Financial Corp (NYSE: CFC) to Underperform from Market Perform on concerns that subprime weakness has spread to other sectors of the residential mortgage market.
- Ferris Baker Watts downgraded shares of Comstock Homebuilding (NASDAQ: CHCI) to Hold from Buy to reflect the uncertainty regarding the company's lender relationships and homebuilding market outlook.
- Citigroup downgraded shares of StanCorp Financial Group (NYSE: SFG) to Hold from Buy on valuation and recommends swapping money into Assurant, Inc (AIZ).
- JP Morgan cut AngloGold Ashanti Ltd (NYSE: AU) to Underweight from Neutral.
Analyst summaries provided by
TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).
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