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Analyst initiations: CYPB, BAC, PODD, TLEO and VOCS

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Cypress Bioscience, Banc of America, Insulet, Taleo and Vocus Inc were today's noteworthy initiations:
  • Friedman Billings started shares of Cypress Biosciences Inc (NASDAQ: CYPB) with an Outperform rating and $22 target, and is positive on the company's lead product milnacipran, in Phase III studies for fibromyalgia. The firm expects a 1Q09 launch and believes the U.S. market could be as large as $7B.
  • Goldman resumed coverage of Bank of America Corporation (NYSE: BAC) with a Buy rating and $63 target as they believe the company has around $22.5B of unrealized gains in its strategic investment portfolio. Goldman also added BAC to their Americas Buy List.
  • Insulet Corporation (NASDAQ: PODD) was initiated at William Blair with an Outperform rating. The firm believes the unique features of the OmniPod will allow PODD to capture a meaningful portion of the 300,000 current insulin pumpers in the United States.
  • Soleil started shares of Taleo Corporation (NASDAQ: TLEO) with a Buy rating and $35 target and believes the company's recent growth pace can continue.
  • Shares of Vocus Inc (NASDAQ: VOCS) were also initiated at Soleil with a Buy rating and $39 target. The firm believes the company can gain share in the early stage market for public relations software given its on-demand model and low price entry point.
OTHER INITIATIONS:

Market highlights for next week: MRK's Vioxx trial to start in Illinois court

Monday September 10
Tuesday September 11
Wednesday September 12
Thursday September 13 Friday September 14

Newspaper wrap-up: Lions Gate close to acquiring Mandate Pictures

MAJOR PAPERS:
OTHER PAPERS:
  • Lions Gate Entertainment Corp (NYSE: LGF) is in final negotiations to acquire production and foreign sales company Mandate Pictures for more than $40M, reported the Los Angeles Times.
  • British retail chain WH Smith is among several companies seeking to buy the U.K. operations of troubled bookseller Borders Group Inc (NYSE: BGP) , reported the Telegraph.
  • From BusinessWeek's "Inside Wall Street" section:
    • People are buying Marshall & Ilsley Corporation (NYSE: MI) because it is a bargain when you consider that Marshall is spinning off to shareholders its traditional banking and processing business in Q4.
    • One safe and steady stock in these volatile markets may be Iron Mountain Inc (NYSE: IRM), the world's largest provider of information storage and protection, whose business has been rock-solid and whose stock has kicked up despite the market's wild swings.
    • Shinhan Financial Group (NYSE: SHG), which has very solid credit metrics and top-quality loan portfolios, is attracting positive attention.

WWE won't be pinned down forever

World Wrestling Entertainment Inc. (NYSE: WWE) shares have plunged more than 5% over the past month as investors fled Vince McMahon's muscle-bound empire in the wake of the Chris Benoit tragedy. The stock is headed for an even bigger fall in the coming months as the company grapples with congressional scrutiny, potential lawsuits and long-overdue increased government regulation.

Nonetheless, WWE is something that truly adventurous investors should consider. The shares are trading at a multiple of 25, which is dirt cheap compared with its peers such as Playboy Enterprises Inc. (NYSE:PLA)'s 130 and Lions Gate Entertainment Corp. (NYSE: LGF)'s 53. Though profit and sales are expected to fall this year, analysts expect WWE to rebound next year.

When WWE holds its earnings conference call on August 2, there no doubt will be plenty of questions about Benoit, steroids, declining ratings and potential share buybacks. WWE management should also be scolded for its stupid decision to air a tribute to Benoit.

But some long term perspective also is in order. Big media companies including Viacom Inc. (NYSE: VIA) and News Corp (NYSE: NWS) would love to buy WWE to gain access to its huge library of content and rabid fan base.

Like it or not wrestling has been part of the pop culture landscape for a long time. Eventually, some other personality will come along that will make people forget the Benoit murders.

At that point, investors who hung in there will have their patience rewarded.

Lions Gate targeting kids with latest movies and that's scary for investors

Lions Gate Entertainment Corp (NYSE: LGF), which has been a bright light in the otherwise dim movie industry recently, has found success making low budget movies aimed at the 20-30 year-old audience. Here is a list of some of their more notable recent releases, sorted by their estimated budgets. None of the movies has a rating milder than PG-13.
  • Hostel ($4.5M est. budget / $47.3M gross)
  • Diary of a Mad Black Woman ($5.5M est. budget / $50.3M gross)
  • Crash ($6.5M est. budget / $54.5M gross, won Best Picture Oscar)
  • Crank ($12M est. budget / $27.8M gross)
  • Employee of the Month ($12M est. budget / $28.4M gross)
  • Saw III ($12M est. budget / $80.1M gross)
  • Hotel Rwanda ($17.5M est. budget / $23.4M gross, nominated for 3 Oscars)
  • Lord of War ($42M est. budget / $24.1M gross)
(All above figures taken from IMDB.com)

From the above list, you can see Lions Gate's winning formula. All their successes have budgets under $20 million dollars, and most fit into three categories: Movies that push the limits of violence and gore (Hostel, Crank, Saw); low-brow adult-themed comedies (Diary of a Mad Black Woman, Employee of the Month); and edgy dramatic works that gain critical appreciation (Crash, Hotel Rwanda).

Now, here is the problem -- neither the movie the just released, Happily N'Ever After, nor the movie that is making noise today with its addition of Paula Abdul to its cast, Bratz, fits this formula.

Continue reading Lions Gate targeting kids with latest movies and that's scary for investors

Analyst upgrades 11-14-06: Motorola upgraded to Strong Buy

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Motorola (MOT) and Lions Gate Films (LGF) top today's modest list of upgrades.

  • Matrix USA upgraded Motorola, Inc. (NYSE:MOT) to Strong Buy from Buy as it believes strong demand for handsets is leading to increased market share for the company. Matrix set Motorola's intrinsic value at $34 a share.
  • Janco upgraded Lions Gate Entertainment Corp. (NYSE:LGF) to Buy from Accumulate based on the belief that the Street overreacted to the third-quarter earnings miss and underestimated the probable 2008 inflection point in EBITDA.

OTHER UPGRADES:

  • C.E. Unterberg upgraded Hurray! Holding (NASDAQ:HRAY). The firm expects Hurray! to report solid third-quarter results and guidance, and said the company is a potential takeover target given its music assets.
  • Suntrust Robinson Humphreys upgraded Barnes & Noble, Inc. (NYSE:BKS) to Buy from Neutral based on improved visibility and modest comps.

Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

A quick review of this week's earnings releases

Fall earnings are winding down, but there were still a number of notable companies reporting this week.

Excellent

  • AES Corporation (NYSE:AES) 27c per share vs analyst expectations of 21c - at $22.45 (yesterday's close) the stock is up 42% year-to-date and is near its 52-week high of $22.66.
  • American International Group (NYSE:AIG) $1.53 vs $1.42 - AIG is only now returning to its levels from the beginning of the year with just over a 2% return YTD. The stock is up more than 2.5% today.
  • Fluor Corporation (NYSE:FLR) 31c vs (12c) - while FLR is up more than 20% in the past year, its YTD return is only 8% and at $83.39 is trading within its 52-week range of $68.70-$103.85
  • JC Penney (JCP) $1.26 vs. $1.23 - JCP had an amazing run. YTD return is nearly 45%. The stock is up another 1.3% today to $80.61, very near its 52-week high of $81.40 set yesterday during the session.

On the Fence

  • El Paso Corporation (NYSE:EP) 16c vs 16c
  • Watson Pharmaceutical (NYSE:WPI) 33c vs 34c
  • Walt Disney Company (NYSE:DIS) 36c vs 34c

Awful

  • Federated Department Stores (NYSE:FD) 20c vs 25c
  • IMAX Corporation (NASDAQ:IMAX) (30c) vs 5c
  • Lions Gate Entertainment Corp. (NYSE:LGF) (14c) vs (2c)

Earnings review from Tedd Cohen of TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

Apple's movie plans confirmed

I've pointed out that Apple's ability to negotiate with movie industry executives to be able to allow iTunes Music Store to carry videos will be key in Apple's plans to continue making the iPod the hippest media device around. Macminute points out an article that confirms that Lions Gate Entertainment has plans to offer movies through iTunes, as well as MovieLink and Cinema Now, and this will happen before the end of the year. At that point, will we see a name change? ITMS could go from iTunes Music Store to iTunes Media Store.

This places the iPod in a crucial place. The iPod is the storage center for an increasing ecosphere of iPod-enabled objects. From cars to computers to soon TVs, putting Apple at the top of pyramid of media devices. There is no resting on laurels here, the moment someone stops someone else can step up. We saw this happen when Apple snapped the lead away from Creative.

There are some less-than-positive pieces to this piece of good news for Apple. Unlike with the music offerings, Apple doesn't have exclusivity in its movie offerings, so customers will have a wide variety of services to choose to try. This works in the customers' favor, but Apple won't have the easy edge it snagged before. Secondly, Apple is supposedly choosing a rental approach for the movies.

I think the second issues will have the greatest impact. Are customers ready to pay but not get to keep the media around? Certainly in the past online customers haven't seemed too excited about the idea of this, can even Apple's hype change the average consumers mind? It will probably depend on the price.

Tobias Buckell is a freelance blogger, futurist, and author who grew up in the Caribbean. He owns shares in Apple.

Starbucks promotional partner Lionsgate cuts Q1 losses

Akeella Promotion Cup SleeveLionsgate Films partnered with Starbucks (SBUX) this year on promotion of the film Akeelah and the Bee, which you might recall was a less-than spectacular campaign involving cup sleeves like the one pictured at right. The promotion will continue with DVD sales of the film, which grossed a disappointing $18.8 million on 2195 screens.

Now Lionsgate has said it will cut its losses after a disappointing first quarter. Starbucks may have better luck with its book club, but it's tough selecting creative projects that will be acceptable to a broad range of customers.

The coffee retailer's "The Way I See It," campaign of placing quotes from various thinkers brought its own controversy when introduced. Not the substance of the quotes themselves so much as the political views, and even lifestyles, of some of the sources, which were deemed offensive and/or biased by some critics.

Starbucks won't please everyone, but seems intent to try not displeasing anyone. Focusing on sentimental heartwarming fare like the spelling bee movie and Mitch Albom's slender lightly-spiritual works seems prudent, if not incredibly inspired.

Michael Canfield is a private investor, a business and media writer, living in Seattle. He doesn't own stock in Starbucks.

Remember 'Akeelah and the Bee'? -- neither do I

Laurence Fishburne in Lionsgate Films and Starbucks (SBUX) partnered this past Spring to promote one of the (seemingly endless number of) spelling-bee-themed rockyesque films recently in production, Akeelah and the Bee. (Read: Video Business Online: Lionsgate and Starbucks get educated.) Starbucks has had good cross-promotion success in the past, notably with music CD's (not only with repackages of well-known artists like Ray Charles, but also, promoting niche acts like Sonya Kitchell) but this maiden attempt to tie-in with a film fizzled. The film has grossed just around $18.5 million through last weekend-- some 70+ days since opening. I myself never caught spelling-bee fever from the promotional sleeves featuring obscure words and definitions that came with my cups of joe during the promotion. Evidently others felt much more than indifference.

The movie studio, naturally, prefers to show the experience in a positive light.

Continue reading Remember 'Akeelah and the Bee'? -- neither do I

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