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Hannah Montana film sees big drop in second weekend -- yes, the fad is over

Well, my friends, last week I discussed the better-than-expected box office results of Disney's (NYSE: DIS) Hannah Montana: The Movie. The project grossed well over $30 million in its opening weekend and ranked in first place. Looks like the half-life was short on this one.

According to Boxofficemojo, the early estimates for this past weekend place Montana in fourth place with roughly $12 million. This represents a huge dive of 60%. The film does not have any legs, let me tell you. Disney shareholders should be disappointed (I'm one, and I'm very disappointed).

Continue reading Hannah Montana film sees big drop in second weekend -- yes, the fad is over

General Electric speeds up the box office

General Electric (NYSE: GE) shareholders have a little something to celebrate today. Fast & Furious, distributed by GE's Universal asset and starring Vin Diesel, came in first place over the weekend at domestic theaters according to Boxofficemojo.

The racing movie scored about $72 million as of early estimates, more than enough to secure the top spot. I know that such success won't do much for GE in terms of stock movement, but hey, as a GE shareholder myself, it's personally been a tough year with all the financial awfulness at GE Capital, so if one of GE's latest movies is a hit, I'll take it.

Continue reading General Electric speeds up the box office

World Wrestling Entertainment's stock has been hot - is John Cena responsible?

Don't tell me you haven't noticed the rise in value of shares of World Wrestling Entertainment (NYSE: WWE). The recent rally in the stock is supremely impressive. The shares closed on Thursday at $12.08. The 52-week low of $8.76 was made back in November of last year. If you look at a one-month chart, you'll see that it's been nothing but straight-up action.

Yes, my friends, the stock is Hulking up! (I love it when Hulk Hogan does that routine.) Of course, by the time this is published, maybe the shares will have experienced a sell-off, but for now, the shares are hot.

Continue reading World Wrestling Entertainment's stock has been hot - is John Cena responsible?

Time Warner's 'Watchmen' takes over the box office while Jonas Brothers tank

Time Warner (NYSE: TWX) won the box-office battle this past weekend. I have no idea what Watchmen is all about, except that there's a collection of superheroes and some sort of mutant blue dude in it, but I do know that it grossed around $55 million at domestic theaters, according to early estimates at Boxofficemojo.

For a rated-R mainstream pic that is over two and a half hours long, that isn't too bad. If it had been shorter and a little more open to younger demographics with a PG-13 rating, it probably would have taken in even more revenue. Come on, guys, think next time! Go for profit maximization.

Continue reading Time Warner's 'Watchmen' takes over the box office while Jonas Brothers tank

The Jonas Brothers fail at the box office -- will they survive?

This was a big weekend for me. Jonas Brothers: The 3D Concert Experience was released in over 1,200 theaters. No, I had no plans to see the movie at my local IMAX (NASDAQ: IMAX) auditorium. The reason I was so excited is because I own shares of Disney (NYSE: DIS). And I was praying that the film would firmly cement the Jonas Brothers in the collective consciousness of tweens across the globe.

Unfortunately, that didn't happen. In fact, the Jonas movie failed at the domestic box office. Don't even try to spin it. According to Boxofficemojo, the film came in second place with a little under $13 million (keep in mind I am working off estimates, final figures will be released later). Lions Gate Entertainment's (NYSE: LGF) latest Tyler Perry project, Madea Goes to Jail, was number one again for the second week in a row, grossing about $16 million. This is really, really disappointing.

Continue reading The Jonas Brothers fail at the box office -- will they survive?

Carl Icahn wants a seat on Lion's Gate board

Carl Icahn's battle for shareholder value at Lion's Gate Entertainment (NYSE: LGF) is heating up. After announcing that he had doubled his stake in the company to 9.2% back in October, the super-investor has again increased his position to 14.28%. Since Icahn began investing in Lion's Gate more than two years ago, the share price has plunged and the bellicose mogul is giving indications that he may have had enough with massive losses from film flops like The Spirit and Transporter III

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Continue reading Carl Icahn wants a seat on Lion's Gate board

Tyler Perry's new 'Madea' movie brings in bucks for Lions Gate

According to Boxofficemojo, Tyler Perry's Madea Goes to Jail came out on top over the weekend at domestic theaters. As of early estimates, the film brought in over $40 million, proving that Tyler Perry's name can still sell tickets. This is great news for Lions Gate Entertainment (NYSE: LGF), which was looking to score a big hit after experiencing some weak performances at the box office.

Tyler Perry beat out News Corp.'s (NYSE: NWS) successful thriller Taken, which landed in the second spot. Coming in third was Coraline from General Electric Company's (NYSE: GE) Focus Features, although those two films could change positions once final numbers are in. Both of them scored around the $11 million mark. Time Warner Inc's (NYSE: TWX) He's Just Not That Into You was fourth and News Corp.'s Slumdog Millionaire, the toast of the Oscars telecast last night, was fifth. Both of those features scored similar amounts, about $8 million each, so we'll see what happens with their respective rankings. Poor Jason Voorhees. Last week, his movie, Friday the 13th, killed at the box office. This week, the slasher dropped 80% in terms of gross and landed in sixth place after debuting in the top slot. Talk about a bloody decline for Time Warner. Horror movies do tend to go down fast after the opening weekend, but I thought this particular feature might exhibit more strength.

Continue reading Tyler Perry's new 'Madea' movie brings in bucks for Lions Gate

Earnings preview: Will Viacom rock the analysts?

Viacom (NYSE: VIA), a media company that used to exist as one business with CBS (NYSE: CBS) and whose colleagues include Disney (NYSE: DIS), Time Warner (NYSE: TWX), News Corp. (NYSE: NWS), Sony (NYSE: SNE), and General Electric's (NYSE: GE) NBC Universal, will issue Q4 results on Thursday, February 12.

I don't know, I don't feel a lot of confidence about them. According to this source, Viacom may earn somewhere around 79 cents per share in the fourth quarter. That would represent a drop of about 6% when compared to last year's Q4 results (which you can check out via this .pdf link). It wouldn't be so bad if Viacom merely met earnings expectations. After all, the media industry is working through a nasty cycle of contraction. Take a look at Disney's earnings and you'll see what I mean.

Continue reading Earnings preview: Will Viacom rock the analysts?

Lions Gate's Q3 reflects risky movie business

Lions Gate Entertainment (NYSE: LGF), whose media colleagues include Disney (NYSE: DIS), Time Warner (NYSE: TWX), Viacom (NYSE: VIA), and Sony (NYSE: SNE), had one bomb of a quarter. Earnings were terrible. Actually, did I say earnings? No, there were none of those, just a big fat loss! For Q3, the studio saw revenues increase by over 8%. Great, but that does nothing to erase the fact that there was a loss of $0.81 per share. And talk about a miss. According to this source, Wall Street was expecting a loss of $0.20 per share. In last year's Q3 report, Lions Gate saw a profit of $0.06 per share.

So what happened? Well, Lions Gate's movie slate just didn't perform. The television-production operations did very well, increasing revenues by over 80%, but it wasn't enough. Total expenses increased significantly, driven by severe rises in direct operating and distribution/marketing expenses. Plus, there were a lot of unsold DVDs that were returned.

Continue reading Lions Gate's Q3 reflects risky movie business

Sony's 'Paul Blart' can't be stopped

Sony (NYSE: SNE) had a great weekend at the domestic box office. According to Boxofficemojo, two of the company's film products, Paul Blart: Mall Cop and Underworld: Rise of the Lycans, came in first and second, respectively, on the movie charts. This is the second weekend in a row at the top for Blart, and early estimates available at the time of this writing credit the comedy with $21.5 million for the three-day period. Underworld so far seems to have about $20.5 million in the bank, but whereas these are estimates, the numbers and rankings could change.

You've got to praise Sony for the marketing campaigns behind both features. The fact that Underworld virtually made as much as the more accessible comedy is pretty impressive to me. Those Underworld commercials were on all the right channels, and I bet they hit the demo that's still riding high from the success of Summit Entertainment's Twilight perfectly (in case you're not familiar, both pictures feature vampires). Twilight has so far grossed well over $180 million.

Time Warner's (NYSE: TWX) Gran Torino came in third, and Viacom's (NYSE: VIA) modest performer, Hotel for Dogs, was fourth. That latter picture has barked up (it's a tradition in the trade to use goofy puns when covering box-office results, sorry) a total of approximately $37 million at this point. Not too great, to be honest. But News Corp.s (NYSE: NWS) Slumdog Millionaire is moving up in the ranks thanks to the Oscar nominations surrounding it and a wider release pattern. It increased in rank to fifth place and has achieved a total tally of $56 million. Look for this one to hit $100 million.

Continue reading Sony's 'Paul Blart' can't be stopped

Mall cop beats a murderous miner: Poor Lions Gate

Oh, well, can't win 'em all. I thought Lions Gate Entertainment (NYSE: LGF) had a pretty good chance of being on top this past weekend with My Bloody Valentine 3-D. Unfortunately, it was not to be. The honors, according to early estimates at Boxofficemojo, go to Sony's (NYSE: SNE) Paul Blart: Mall Cop, a movie that does indeed look hilarious. Blart took in more than $33 million at domestic theaters.

Now, the race for slots two, three, and four are close as I write this. Time Warner's (NYSE: TWX) Gran Torino, Valentine 3-D, and News Corp.'s (NYSE: NWS) Notorious are credited with box-office hauls of $22.2 million, $21.9 million, and $21.5 million, respectively. As can be seen, the rankings could easily change when final figures are computed, but it shows just how competitive the weekend was, and how Lions Gate maybe should have tried a bit harder with its marketing campaign.

It's not that the studio necessarily needed to spend more money, it's just that maybe those in charge of selling the film could have been smarter about the ways in which they invested their ad budget. Even if being number-one wasn't in the cards for the horror flick, Valentine 3-D could have at least been a decisive second-place finisher. Still, I concede that Blart simply could have been too much competition. Really, the whole idea of parodying the profession of the mall cop would definitely appeal to the same demo as a murderous miner would. (As a side note, not long ago, I saw a mall cop on a Segway for the first time; it indeed is a humorous sight to behold.)

I expect that Valentine 3-D will see a decline of at least 50% next weekend. It's the typical pattern for a horror film, unless there's something particularly compelling about it. In this case, I don't think there's any differentiating element to the concept/plot that would predict better staying power. Plus, we can look to General Electric's (NYSE: GE) The Unborn, released by GE-owned Universal, for guidance. That project, which hit the market last weekend, grossed roughly the same amount in its debut frame as Valentine 3-D did in its opening weekend. This weekend, Unborn is down 50%, and it dropped from third place to seventh. This is why I'm such a stickler about big opening weekends, and why I'm critical when a studio doesn't do as well as it perhaps should have. You need to start from as high a level as possible so that 50% drops don't mean as much. I'm sure institutions invested in Lions Gate share my opinion on that count. We'll have to wait and see what the raging miner does next week...

Disclosure: I own GE; positions can change without notice.

Clint Eastwood shoots to the top of the box office

Clint Eastwood's box-office day was made this past weekend. According to Boxofficemojo, his film Gran Torino, distributed by Time Warner (NYSE: TWX), was number one at domestic theaters. The film, which saw a much wider release this week, took in $29 million. That was $8 million more than the movie in second place, News Corp.'s (NYSE: NWS) Bride Wars, starring Kate Hudson and Anne Hathaway. Gran Torino has banked about $40 million at this point. Eastwood may be old, but he's still relevant. Good going, Dirty Harry.

As interesting as the above is, I'm actually more interested in the film in third place. And I'd be willing to bet that Lions Gate Entertainment (NYSE: LGF) shareholders are interested in it as well. That's because The Unborn, distributed by General Electric's (NYSE: GE) Universal, is a horror film that did much better than I expected. I heard bad word of mouth about the project, but it actually grossed more than $20 million. Lions Gate will be releasing My Bloody Valentine 3-D next weekend, and I think the performance of The Unborn may improve that film's chances.

Lions Gate, as we all know, is a studio that has a reputation for being an expert in targeting slick (as well as sick) slashers at young people. I want to see this remake, but I'm not interested in the whole 3-D aspect, I couldn't care less. I know, though, that perhaps the older teens will care. Still, I do hope the studio made sure that there's quality to back up the gimmick. If there isn't any, then it will quickly fade from the multiplex.


Continue reading Clint Eastwood shoots to the top of the box office

Lions Gate buys TV Guide properties: Why?

So, I just read that Lions Gate Entertainment (NYSE: LGF) purchased TVGuide.com and TV Guide Network from Macrovision Solutions Corp. (NASDAQ: MVSN) for over $250 million. Here's the press release. The question I have is: Why would Lions Gate want to do this?

I know I'm going to be called pretty ignorant by some for even thinking to disagree with this move, but nevertheless, I disagree with this move. The reason is simple (to me, at least). If I were a shareholder of the company, I think I'd rather have management focus on creating content as opposed to spending a lot of money to buy up a platform. Sure, these TV Guide properties have a high level of brand equity and are indeed widely distributed. But a quarter of a billion dollars is a lot of money, a sum that could have been allocated toward new movie franchises and content acquisitions.

Does Lions Gate really want the hassle of integrating the TV Guide portfolio into its business? Won't that distract the company from focusing on its desire to build a great library of movies and television shows so that it can become an attractive buyout candidate someday? I mean, let me get specific for a second. Take the Saw franchise. That's getting a little long in the tooth, isn't it? I look at that quarter-billion bucks and see a bunch of seed money for a ton of new concepts. If only a few made it to Saw-level, then I can only imagine that it would help shareholder value.

Continue reading Lions Gate buys TV Guide properties: Why?

I can't believe 'Four Christmases' is #1 again

According to Boxofficemojo, holiday cheer is currently ruling the silver screen. Time Warner's (NYSE: TWX) Four Christmases was number one at domestic theaters this past weekend with an estimated haul of $18 million. This is the movie's second weekend out, and it's the second time that it captured the top slot. What gives? Seriously. Is the movie that good? I expressed similar sentiment last week about the flick. I guess congratulations are in order for Time Warner and its marketing machine.

And I continue to be surprised by Summit Entertainment's Twilight. The teen phenomenon doesn't seem as phenomenal to me anymore. It came in second over the weekend, and its cumulative gross now stands at slightly under $140 million. Is it me, or were you thinking that Twilight would have snared over $200 million by now?

And just to prove that all my expectations are being turned upside down, let me say that I thought Disney's (NYSE: DIS) Bolt would have surely made it past the century mark by its third weekend at the multiplex. Not even close. Right now, Bolt has close to $80 million in its dog bowl (hey, I had to come up with one goofy pun, right?). By comparison, DreamWorks Animation's (NYSE: DWA) Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa, which is distributed by Viacom (NYSE: VIA), has grossed about $165 million after its fifth weekend at bat.

Continue reading I can't believe 'Four Christmases' is #1 again

Lions Gate misses in Q2, but is the stock a trade?

Lions Gate Entertainment (NYSE: LGF), whose bigger colleagues include Disney (NYSE: DIS), General Electric's (NYSE: GE) Universal, Time Warner (NYSE: TWX), Viacom (NYSE: VIA), and Sony (NYSE: SNE), publicized its Q2 earnings after the bell on Monday. There was good news and bad news.

The good news was that the company narrowed its loss compared to last year's results. Lions Gate booked a net loss of $0.41 per share this year versus a net loss of $0.49 per share in the year-ago period. The bad news, however, is that the results did not meet expectations. I mean, they really didn't meet expectations, as the call was for a loss of $0.15 per share. That's just how the movie business goes sometimes.

However, let's look at the cash flow, because we can find some comfort there. Operational cash flow for the quarter was positive this year instead of being negative, and free cash flow, which is the ultimate goal of any business, increased over three times to nearly $74 million.

And I'll steer you to another positive statistic -- filmed entertainment backlog increased to what management is calling a record $456.5 million. I know, I also tend to dismiss terms like "record" when I see them in a press release, but at least in this case it refers to revenues that will ultimately be recognized down the line.

Continue reading Lions Gate misses in Q2, but is the stock a trade?

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