MOST NOTEWORTHY: Novartis, AIG, Diageo, and BEA Systems were today's noteworthy downgrades:

• HSBC downgraded Novartis (NYSE: NVS) to Underweight from Neutral, as they believe the company's mid-single digit pharma sales growth is not sustainable.
  
• AIG (NYSE: AIG) was downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform by Keefe Bruyette due to their concerns about the company's deteriorating profit trends.
  
• Diageo (NYSE: DEO) was lowered to Neutral from Buy by Goldman Sachs to reflect a lack of near-term catalysts.
  
• Deutsche Bank downgraded BEA Systems (NASDAQ: BEAS) to Hold from Buy, as they believe it is likely that the acquisition will close in April.

OTHER DOWNGRADES:

• Live Nation (NYSE: LYV) was dropped to Hold from Buy by Morgan Joseph.
• Jackson Hewitt (NYSE: JTX) was dropped to Neutral from Buy at FTN Midwest.
• Roth Capital downgraded Collagenex (NASDAQ: CGPI) to Hold from Buy.
• Credit Suisse lowered MFA Mortgage (NYSE: MFA) to Neutral from Outperform.

Rumors now frequently circulate about massive music acts leaving their long-term record labels. Last spring Paul McCartney defected from EMI after 45 years to join Starbucks' (NASDAQ: SBUX) Hear Music label. Madonna left Warner Music Group (NYSE: WMG) last fall. Other artists have followed suit, while some who are still signed have started speaking out against their labels. In this most recent case, Irish rock band U2 is rumored to be leaving Vivendi's Universal Music Group to sign up with Live Nation (NYSE: LYV).

Although I wouldn't blame the artists for leaving their labels, as long as it is in their best interests and increases fans accessibility to the music, it is certainly going to affect the record industry long-term if the defections continue. At the same time, many critics and bloggers would point out that the acts switching labels are already past their prime -- their big hits and money-making lies with albums that came while they were at the labels. That may be true for acts like McCartney, U2, and Madonna, but the best example of this -- Radiohead -- is hardly through making the huge hits they enjoyed while with a major record label.

Radiohead, if you remember, is that "little" band that caused such a stir last October when it decided to release its new album, In Rainbows, to fans in a pay-what-you-want model. When the album was released on CD earlier this year it hit #1 in numerous charts around the world.

Obviously, none of these acts would have achieved such huge successes without major record labels, and it is impossible to say that the future of the record industry is without music labels. These rumors and the actual occurrences indicate that companies like Live Nation and Starbucks, while not necessarily oriented primarily for music distribution, are making better gains than the labels. This will not be ignored for long so the rumors may cease, and only indicates the movement music acts are making for the time being.

While sagging global music sales may be down, spelling hard times for music labels and the like, the proliferation of cribbed (read, downloaded illegally) music is actually driving concert sales to record levels.

Anyone heard of Live Nation (NYSE: LYV)? It only happens to be a real player in this industry. Live Nation recently announced its global ticketing initiative, which is set to debut next January. Live Nation is partnering with European firm CTS Eventim, which will provide the back-end technology and other related services for LYV's ticketing business.

So, what does this new business mean to a company that is a mover and shaker in the the promotion and production of live music shows, theatrical performances, and specialized motor sports events?

Warner Music Group Corp. (NYSE: WMG) announced today a $5 million net profit in the last quarter, compared to $12 million at this time last year. Continued growth in digital sales over sales of physical albums (CDs) is cited as the reason for this drop. There is good news out of that growth as digital sales for WMG rose 25% during the quarter, but according to Billboard this could not make up for CD sales. Across the board, the report indicates that album sales in the United States were down 14% in the last year. Fans are using digital stores like Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL)'s iTunes store to buy tracks in greater quantities than full albums.

In mid-October, WMG lost a major artist when Madonna opted to sign a new contract with tour promoter Live Nation (NYSE: LYV). For years, WMG had also been mentioned as a possible buyer of London-based EMI Group, but the seven-year rumor ended when Terra Firma bought the music company and took it private. Billboard indicates that WMG is attempting to create new business relationships with the company's roster of artists, much like the other major record companies. This new business model would include "new digital services as well as a share of image rights, advertising, touring and management revenue."

WMG's profit decline is certainly not unexpected, and it is another indication that the digital market is the one these companies should be focusing their attention. As movies and television shows are indicating, the internet and online stores are providing new outlets for material to be tested and offered to fans. It would be prudent to test similar measures and see what the results might be. Clearly, interest would be maintained as fans are already buying more material through online stores versus strolling through retailers looking for CDs.

With the news this morning that Madonna is potentially leaving Warner Music Group (NYSE: WMG) for tour promoter Live Nation (NYSE: LYV), the future of the record industry is again being questioned. In the wake of English band Radiohead's self-release online of its seventh album, any move away from the record industry is demanding notice. A move to a tour promoter with album and merchandise opportunities only gives artists more control over their product, as opposed to making numerous deals with separate entities.

The Wall Street Journal's article cites that "a range of players in the music business -- labels, concert promoters and even managers and ticketing companies -- are eager to make broad deals that give them a larger piece of the pie by participating in revenue streams such as endorsement deals between artists and advertisers, as well as the sales of concert tickets and merchandise." That very sentiment spells doom for the record industry as the "newer" entities that enter the album-making business make offers that are often better than the deals the record labels offer.

The possibility of Madonna moving from Warner Music is only the most recent in a long line this year of successful artists moving from the big labels, but so far the question has revolved around embracing new technologies like the digital market. Paul McCartney shook up everything back in March when he moved from the Terra Firma-held EMI to Starbucks' (NASDAQ: SBUX) Hear Music, seizing on a market that had primarily been used for selling compilation CDs. McCartney's Memory Almost Full sold extremely well and catapulted him into the digital world. Radiohead's In Rainbows is this year's other strong case, though exact sales numbers are not available yet (however, the album's download site did get overloaded yesterday).

But the problems that face label groups like Warner and EMI are not limited to those companies. The entire business model for the music industry is being redrawn and recreated, but not by the labels. As the cases of Madonna, McCartney, and Radiohead illustrate, the artist is taking control of an industry that has long abused its power.

MAJOR PAPERS:

• Madonna, the original material girl, is signing a 10-year $120M deal with concert promoter Live Nation (NYSE: LYV), leaving Warner Music Group (NYSE: WMG) in her wake, reported the Wall Street Journal.
• According to the Wall Street Journal's "Heard on the Street" column, Progressive Corporation (NYSE: PGR) is struggling due to competitors' pricing, safer cars, and a struggling economy, to name a few factors.
• The Financial Times reported that General Electric Company (NYSE: GE) will decide whether to sell its 80% stake in NBC Universal after the Beijing Olympics in August 2008, according to sources.
• Tenaris (NYSE: TS), the maker of steel pipes for oil and gas exploration, has ruled out any possible sale of itself to ArcelorMittal (NYSE: MT) , the world's biggest steel producer, reported the Financial Times.

OTHER PAPERS:

• The New York Post reported that UBS AG (NYSE: UBS) has fired David Martin, its head of interest-rate trading, and James Stehli, the head of its collateralized debt obligation unit, due to the fallout from the mortgage meltdown.
• BP PLC (NYSE: BP) CEO Tony Hayward will today unveil plans to reduce bureaucracy and duplication of management at the oil giant, reported the Telegraph.

Madonna is on her way out the door at Warner Music Group (NYSE: WMG). She is being drawn away by a $120 million, ten year offer from Live Nation (NYSE: LYV), the large concert promoter.

Under the terms of the deal, according to The Wall Street Journal, Madonna will make three albums with the concert promoter. Live Nation will also promote merchandise and the licensing of her name.

Several industry observers say that Live Nation cannot make its money back on album sales. It would require close to 50 million units. But, by making money on other lines of business, like sponsorship of tours, the company may well be able to make a profit.

Warmer Music Group probably decided that the deal did not make economic sense and let Madonna go. But, that would be short-sighted. With CD sales falling and more revenue coming from digital downloads, WMG shares have lost almost two-thirds of their value in a little over a year. The stock now trades just above $11.

Digital sales do not yield music publishers as much per song as CDs do. Warner has to come up with some other way to make money. Taking a chance on Madonna's concert sales and sponsorships would have been a good first step out of a hole for Warner. But, they did not take it.

Douglas A. McIntyre is a partner at 24/7 Wall St.

MAJOR PAPERS:

• Bank of America Corporation (NYSE: BAC) is making a $2 billion equity investment in Countrywide Financial Corporation (NYSE: CFC), people familiar with the situation told the Wall Street Journal (subscription required).
• Ticket seller Ticketmaster, which is owned by IAC/InterActiveCorp (NASDAQ: IACI), has halted talks with concert promoter Live Nation Inc (NYSE: LYV), failing to reach a new, long-term agreement. The talks have "grown acrimonious" over the last year and a half, say people close to the situation, with Live Nation CEO Michael Rapino threatening to start his own ticketing company rather than renewing with Ticketmaster, according to the Wall Street Journal.
• Home Depot Inc's (NYSE: HD) sale of its wholesale supply division to a group of private equity firms is in doubt, due to uncertainty about the willingness of three investment banks to fund the deal, reported the Financial Times (subscription required).
  
• The Financial Times reported that Motorola Inc (NYSE: MOT) lost more than 7% of market share in the handset market in Q2, according to new figures.

OTHER PAPERS:

• Private equity firm Kohlberg Kravis Roberts has reportedly postponed its $1.25B initial public offering, after investors showed little interest in the IPO, reported the U.K. Times.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Chico's FAS, Inc (CHS), Live Nation (LYV) and Clear Channel Communications, Inc (CCU) were some of today's notable upgrades:

• Friedman, Billings, Ramsey upgraded shares of Chico's FAS Inc (NYSE: CHS) to Market Perform from Underperform and raised their target to $25 from $17 on valuation.

• Matrix USA upgraded Live Nation (NYSE: LYV) to Hold from Sell on valuation.

• Sanders Morris upgraded Clear Channel Communications (NYSE: CCU) to Hold from Sell, as the firm believes the disapproval by holders to sell the company will result in shares trading in the $34-$37 range.

OTHER UPGRADES:

• Lehman upgraded PPL Corp (NYSE: PPL) to Overweight from Equal-Weight.

• Friedman, Billings, Ramsey continued to recommend shares of Urban Outfitters, Inc (NASDAQ: URBN) with an Outperform rating as the firm has seen consistent progress at both the company's divisions throughout March. Friedman added Urban Outfitters to its Top Picks list.

• JP Morgan raised Sonic Corp (NASDAQ: SONC) to an Overweight rating from Neutral, and believes shares have priced in softer Q2 sales that were pre-announced late-February.

• Martha Stewart Living Omnimedia, Inc (NYSE: MSO) was upgraded at Bear Stearns to Peer Perform from Underperform.

• Morgan Stanley upgraded Mylan Laboratories (NYSE: MYL) to Neutral from Sell.

• Goldman Sachs upgraded the Mortgage Insurance sector to Neutral from Cautious.

Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).