The shares of American International Group (NYSE: AIG) soared nearly 23% Monday and are rising fast again today on news that shareholders may band together to prevent the Federal Reserve from snapping up an 80% stake in the insurance firm. Apparently, major investors (which could include Bill Miller of Legg Mason) are hoping that the quick sale of assets will raise enough capital to pay off the Fed's $85 billion loan. However, AIG chief Edward Liddy seemed to put the kibosh on this speculation last night in a CNBC interview.
Liddy told the cable news channel he thinks the government's bailout plan is an "excellent idea," and added that he doesn't consider the Fed's intervention as a step toward nationalization. While the CEO believes that the government's loan will be fully repaid, he noted that a shareholder rescue isn't the most likely outcome. Instead, Liddy plans to prepare a list of assets for sale within seven to ten days, in hopes that the divestments will generate enough cash to stave off the feds at the door.
So, what's for sale at AIG? Well, Liddy made it clear that the firm's Asian operations are both "sacrosanct" and "unassailable." The chief executive also emphasized that he wants his company to emerge on the other side of this crisis as a leaner and more resilient version of itself. "It will look a lot like it did prior to 1998-1999, with less reliance on the financial services side," he told CNBC, noting that AIG will instead focus on its core business of property-casualty insurance.
Today could be blamed on many issues. No ECB rate cut, oil confusion, weak economic data, and more. But this is looking like wholesale de-leveraging across the board amid new credit concerns and tightening standards. Want to see what a bubble popping in commodities looks like? The sad part is that there are very few spots to hide out in, which is perhaps more symptomatic of a bear market. Here are the unofficial closing bell levels: DJIA 11,185.63 (-347.25) S&P500 1236.76 (-38.22) NASDAQ 2259.04 (-74.69) 10YR T-Note 3.643% (-0.054%) 52-week lows Top Analyst Upgrades Top Analyst Downgrades
American International Group, Inc. (NYSE: AIG) may be testing out the waters to see how Wall Street reacts. There are reports that the insurance giant may spin-off its bad assets into a new high-risk company to get the assets off its books. Shares were down 6% right before the close.
Ciena Corporation (NASDAQ: CIEN) basically met earnings but it is seeing a slowdown and order delay from Tier One telecom and data carriers. It has now lowered revenue guidance to $190 to $210 million for its fiscal fourth quarter, far under the $263 million expected by analysts. Shares are down over 10% and at new 52-week lows.
Stock futures were lower this morning as oil rose back above $110 a barrel and investors awaited a barrage of economic data due today including weekly oil inventories. Other economic indicators include data on employment, manufacturing and productivity. Also, retailers will be announcing August same-store sales. Overall, sales are expected to rise 2%. Meanwhile, the Bank of England and the European Central Bank are deciding their interest rate policy today, where the ECB could tighten.
The first of the retailers has already reported August sales. Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT) said sales increased 3% in August, beating its forecast. Seems discounts drew shoppers. WMT shares are up over 1% in pre-market.
Unfortunately for Boeing (NYSE: BA), The International Machinists and Aerospace Workers union, which represents nearly 27,000 machinists, voted to strike as they rejected Boeing's contract offer. The union, however, postponed the strike by 48 hours as the two parties go to mediation. Boeing will likely suffer from a strike at a time it's struggling to stand by its Dreamliner obligations. BA stock is down over 1% in pre-market.
BP PLC (NYSE: BP) shares stand to rise after it finally reached an agreement with its billionaire Russian partners have over TNK-BP. While BP remains with a 50% holding in the venture, it has made many concessions, including agreeing to have the CEO Dudley leave. Shares are up over 2% in pre-market.
Investors are taking their money out of hedge funds more now that at any time over the past 10 years, according to the Wall Street Journal. Firms are bracing for the end of June when the next big wave will hit.
First it was a demand for management changes, and now shareholders, including one time director Eli Broad and fund managers Shelby Davis of Davis Selected Advisors and Bill Miller of Legg Mason Inc (NYSE: LM), are again upset with American International Group Inc (NYSE: AIG) and want changes in the boardroom as well, the Wall Street Journal reported.
Spotlight Capital is increasing pressure on Chico's FAS Inc (NYSE: CHS) and said it has been in touch with 25 major shareholders in order to oust CEO Scott Edmonds and unseat board member John Burden, who are accused of having a conflict of interest, the New York Post reported.
WEB SITES:
Advanced Micro Devices Inc (NYSE: AMD) denied reports certain of its new dual-core chip, code-named Kuma, have been canceled, according to CNet. A spokesman for the company said that the launch of Kuma, scheduled for the second half of 2008, remains on track.
Deutsche Bank downgraded Best Buy (NYSE:BBY) to "hold" from "buy", according toBriefing.com. The news service also reports that Merrill upgraded Peabody Energy (NYSE:BTU) to "buy" from "neutral."
Legg Mason (NYSE:LM) was raised to "neutral" at Credit Suisse, according toBriefing.com. The financial site also reports that Hughes Communications (NASDAQ:HUGH) was started as "overweight" at Lehman Brothers.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Legg Mason, Panacos Pharma and PepsiAmericas were today's noteworthy upgrades:
Wachovia upgraded Legg Mason (NYSE: LM) to Market Perform from Underperform citing valuation, new CEO change, and reduced Citigroup (NYSE: C) ownership.
Bear upgraded Panacos Pharma (NASDAQ: PANC) to Outperform from Peer Perform citing renewed confidence in Bevirimat, an HIV inhibitor, following analysis of Phase IIb data. The firm expects a partnership for Bevirmat to be the next catalyst.
Deutsche Bank raised PepsiAmericas (NYSE: PAS) to Buy from Hold shares on valuation, as they believe the recent weakness is overdone.
OTHER UPGRADES:
Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) was raised to Equal Weight from Underweight at Morgan Stanley.
MarketWatch was running a interview today with Will Nasgovitz, co-manager of the Heartland Select Value Fund (NASDAQ: HRSVX). The $332 billion fund has absolutely trounced the S&P 500 (AMEX: SPY) since 2000. Even with an extremely rocky 2007, the fund is up over 100% since 2000, where the S&P is actually (ugh) in the red for the same time period.
The secret sauce?
MarketWatch quotes manager Nasgovitz as saying that the team running Select Value has a background covering small- and micro-cap stocks, which don't get as much analyst research coverage, that they apply when delving into larger companies.
Jay Winthrop of Douglass Winthrop Advisors LLC, a $250 million (assets under management) New York registered investment advisory firm, likes to buy stocks whose prices are so low that the odds of them benefiting from a positive surprise exceed those of losing from a negative one. Douglass Winthrop is ahead of the S&P year-to-date and has delivered "positive, tax-efficient results since inception in 2002." Through its 10% to 15% stock turnover, it offers investors lower expenses and taxes than its higher turnover "fast money" peers. As Winthrop summed it up: "Good things happen to cheap stocks."
Four stocks that he mentioned particularly caught my attention:
Nestle S A (OTC: NSRGY). Nestle has benefited from its investment in emerging markets -- giving it a strong brand and distribution presences in countries experiencing rapid growth. A significant share of its profits are generated in developing markets. And its core food business is cheap when its strategic investments are backed out. Nestle trades at a mere 13x to 14 x operating earnings -- which is lower than the value of stocks in its peer group. Finally, Nestle is capitalizing on the profitable and growing health and wellness trend.
Legg Mason (NYSE: LM). Legg Mason is a pre-eminent asset manager with $1 trillion under management. But its stock has declined due to temporary problems. Its Value Trust fund -- which had long outperformed the market under its manager Bill Miller -- has had two sub-par performing years in a row. And it's had troubles integrating a merger with Citigroup Inc.'s (NYSE: C) mutual fund unit. Winthrop also thinks Legg Mason has been hit by the overall decline in financials. However, he argues, Legg Mason trades at 1% of assets under management which is far below the 2% industry average. And its valuation is much less than that of newly public alternative investment managers.
In August I posted on the danger that subprime mortgages pose to people who invest in money market funds. Today, the New York Times reports that several such funds have invested in commercial paper (CP) issued by Structured Investment Vehicles (SIVs) backed by subprime mortgage-backed securities (MBSs). I think all money market funds should start a public information campaign to let people know if they have the SIV virus and if so, what they're doing to protect their customers from it.
Earlier, I posted on all the new vocabulary words I've learned in the last year thanks to the subprime mortgage meltdown. This $1.3 trillion market consists of mortgages to people who can't afford to repay in many cases. Forty seven percent of the loans were made without documentation of the borrower's income -- these are known as liar loans. The subprime mortgages were packaged as MBSs and among the buyers were SIVs -- off-balance sheet entities that use a bank's good credit rating to issue CP to invest in MBSs.
Thanks to the subprime mortgage meltdown, the CP is not worth as much as before so the money market funds that bought it are now forced to break the $1 per share constant value or put money into the fund to make up for the lost value. So far, analysts say that most SIV securities are trading at 97 to 98 cents on the dollar. But if more SIVs are forced to unwind, the resulting fire sale would put pressure on prices.
As Facebook and MySpace popularize social networks, we are seeing more specialized networks. For example, Sermo.com is a social network that caters to the complex needs of physicians.
And the site is getting lots of traction -- with about 30,000 physicians (growing at about 2,000 physicians per week).
Actually, Sermo is fairly young (the launch date was September of last year). But the company has spent a lot of time and resources building a great platform. For example, the registered users can share information on treatments, new drugs/devices, and so on.
As the stock shot up 14% the other day, it was revealed that the warm and fuzzy big bear hired Lehman Brothers to "explore strategic alternatives." Some analysts think an LBO is what will happen, and range the valuation at from $34 to $36. Very recently the company reduced its second quarter per share profit expectations to 7 cents to 10 cents, down from 15 cents to 19 cents, because of slow sales at stores that have been opened for at least a year. Here's a bear to be bullish on.
It's troubled times for the nation's largest mortgage lender. Earlier in the week the shares began to fall when it was revealed that they may be a part of a government investigation into subprime loans. It certainly doesn't help that three former company executives pleaded guilty to conducting insider trading in shares of Countrywide. The heat is on.
Two Texas investment groups, HBK Investments and Lone Star Funds, who between them own about 9.5% of the company, are said to be interested in digesting the whole dang thing. The 490 restaurant chain that has operations in 20 states just saw their most recent quarterly profit drop 30% from the previous year, as same store sales fell 4.7%. Gentlemen that they are though, they'll only pursue the sizzle if the board cooks it up with them.
Jana Partners and S.A.C. Capital Advisors, who have about an 8.4% combined ownership of AMTD, are keeping the pressure on for the firm to partner up with another brokerage firm, and have now formalized their demands.
BUZZ
DJO INCORPORATED (NYSE: DJO): MMI Investments purchased 9.4% of the company's shares. When they buy in, they usually see the company acquired...Pride International Inc (NYSE: PDE): Spin off of foreign assets, or a possible takeover, has attracted interest...Legg Mason Inc (NYSE: LM): Pershing Square Capital, whose activist leader William Ackman has tried to push around McDonald's Corporation (NYSE: MCD) and Wendy's, has taken a 1.5% share of the company.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Genesit Energy LP (GEL), EnerNoc (ENOC) and Comcast (CMCSA) were today's noteworthy initiations:
Genesis Energy (AMEX: GEL) was initiated with a Buy rating and $40 target at Stanford, as the firm believes the company's affiliation with Denbury Resources and pending acquisition of petroleum products, terminals, and transportation businesses from the Davison family will drive rapid growth.
EnerNoc Inc (NASDAQ: ENOC) was initiated with a Hold rating and $42 target at Jefferies, due to valuation. EnerNoc was also initiated at Morgan Stanley with an Equal Weight rating and $40 target.
Stifel expects Comcast (OTC: CMCSA) to benefit from higher penetration levels of DVR and HDTV set-top boxes over the next several years and initiated shares with a Buy rating and $34 target.
OTHER INITIATIONS:
Select asset managers were initiated at Credit Suisse:
Deutsche Bank initiated Ryland Group (NYSE: RYL) with a Buy rating and $52 target, as well as Pulte Homes (NYSE: PHM) and Meritage Homes Corp (NYSE: MTH) with Hold ratings and a $23 target and $29 target, respectively.
The crème de la crème of portfolio managers met up in New York to exchange investment ideas at the Ira W. Sohn Investment Research Conference last week. Presenters included turnaround expert Wilbur Ross, Joe Rosenberg who has managed money at Loews Corporation (NYSE: LTR) forever, Bill Miller of Legg Mason Inc (NYSE: LM) and Mason Hawkins, Chairman of Southeastern Asset Management.
Some of the highlights:
General theme was favoring large cap over small cap
Technology is coming back into favor in addition to healthcare
Investors should avoid Asia
Mason Hawkins ended the conference not recommending individual stocks but focusing more on investment advisory prose: have the discipline to say no, be patient and wait for the right opportunity, be willing to stand on your own when no one agrees with you, and take advantage of other peoples fear and greed. That investment advice pretty much follows the thoughts of many of the presenters.
In the U.S. markets this morning, traders are faced with declines in Asia and Europe. Bloomberg reports that MSCI's Asia-Pacific Index fell 2.4%, its steepest slide since March 5. Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Average lost 2.9%. In Europe, the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index retreated 2%, poised for its worst day since February 27 when the Dow fell 416 points. The Euro Stoxx 50, a measure for the 13 nations sharing the euro, slipped 1.8%.
U.S. futures suggest a down opening -- but what matters is where the U.S. markets close. I don't know what makes the market go up and down. I think those who control the most capital do but they're not talking. So the rest of us are left wondering what's going on. On February 27th, the declines around the world traced out a path that seems to be repeating itself again today:
Yen strengthens relative to the dollar - Yesterday, the yen was up against the dollar as Japanese and other investors got concerned about a U.S. economic slowdown. This was partially responsible for the declines in Asia and Europe.
Carry trade reverses - Carry trade refers to the practice of investors borrowing a low-yielding currency -- such as the yen -- to invest in higher-yielding currencies and assets. The reversal of this trade means that investors sell other positions to pay back their Yen-based loans.
Treasury yields fall - A flight to safety causes investors to flee stocks and get into treasury bonds. For example, yesterday the 10-year Treasury note added 15/32, or $4.6875 for every $1,000 invested, to 101 1/32, yielding 4.495% Tuesday. The 30-year bond was up 17/32 to 101 15/32, yielding 4.658%.
Stock markets fall - Unfortunately, fleeing the Yen carry trade and buying Treasuries means that money flows out of stocks around the world. And the outflows in the U.S. lead Asian and European investors to sell -- which scares U.S. investors. And the cycle of selling continues until someone influential is willing to catch the falling knife.
The shares of American International Group (NYSE: AIG) soared nearly 23% Monday and are rising fast again today on news that shareholders may band together to prevent the Federal Reserve from snapping up an 80% stake in the insurance firm. Apparently, major investors (which could include Bill Miller of Legg Mason) are hoping that the quick sale of assets will raise enough capital to pay off the Fed's $85 billion loan. However, AIG chief Edward Liddy seemed to put the kibosh on this speculation last night in a CNBC interview.
Today could be blamed on many issues. No ECB rate cut, oil confusion, weak economic data, and more. But this is looking like wholesale de-leveraging across the board amid new credit concerns and tightening standards. Want to see what 
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