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Sam Zell's interest in Tribune is puzzling

Sam Zell has gotten really rich without my help. But I have to wonder what is motivating the "grave dancer" to buy Tribune Co. (NYSE:TRB).

Of all of the things that that Zell could spend with the billions he's earned from the sale of his Equity Office Properties company, Tribune seems to be an odd choice. I know he's from Chicago and Tribune, owner of the Chicago Tribune and Los Angeles Times, is based there. But it's going to take more than civic pride to turn around Tribune.

The trends in the newspaper business are lousy. Though publishers are gaining Internet advertising revenue, it's not at a fast enough rate to off-set the decline in their core print business. Young people don't read papers and probably aren't going to start anytime soon.

Maybe Zell can prove naysayers like me wrong. Maybe private equity players will take an interest in Gannett Co. (NYSE:GCI), New York Times Co. (NYSE:NYT), and other publishers. But the newspapers continue to decline at faster rates than even the most pessimistic forecasts.

As the New York Times points out today, newspapers had an awful February. Advertising plunged 14 percent at USA Today, 7.5 percent at the Times (where I've done freelance writing), 5 percent at Tribune and McClatchy Co. (NYSE:MNI). Believe it or not before investors LIKED McClatchy before it acquired Knight Ridder last year.

I don't know what Zell and the members of the billionaire boys club who suddenly fancy themselves as William Randolph Hearst think they can do as publishers that the current crop of managers haven't already tried. Tribune, whose papers are mostly based in big cities where competition for readers is intense, seems like a particularly difficult company to turn around.

Like I said earlier, Zell has done fine in his career without my help. I only hope he understands the rough road ahead for Tribune.

Newspaper wrap-up 3-26-07: Massive job cut expected at Citigroup

MAJOR PAPERS:
  • The Wall Street Journal (subscription required) reported that E.On AG (NYSE: EON), the German utility, today raised its takeover offer for Spain's Endesa (ELE) to EUR40 a share, valuing the utility at about EUR42.36B.
  • Also in the Wall Street Journal, Citigroup Inc (NYSE: C) is expected to cut 15,000 jobs under its restructuring plan.
  • According to the Financial Times (subscription required), Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (NYSE: SMI) is seeking a strategic investor and has named Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) and Deutsche Bank AG (NYSE: DB) to assist in the process.
  • The Financial Times also reported that Saudi Basic is preparing a bid for General Electrics Company (NYSE: GE) GE Plastics division, that could be worth up to $12B.
OTHER PAPERS:
  • Blackberry maker Research in Motion (NASDAQ: RIMM) is getting a line of mobile games from Gameloft, a leading cell phone games maker, reported the New York Times.
  • The Los Angeles Times reported that Tribune Company (NYSE: TRB) is said to be favoring Sam Zell's $33 per share offer for the company, according to a person familiar with the talks.
  • The Sunday Telegraph reported that Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT) is preparing to launch a range of audio and video phones.
WEBSITES:
  • According to AppleInsider.com, Jeff Hansen, Apple Inc's (NASDAQ: AAPL) Senior Director of Channel Sales and Distribution, told colleagues in a company e-mail that he plans to retire from his post effective March 31st.
  • According to ChinaTechNews.com, China Unicom Limited (NYSE: CHU) will reportedly sell is CDMA business for RMB70 billion to China Telecom Corporation Limited (NYSE: CHA), but China Telecom reportedly wants the price cut by RM35 billion.

Can Sam Zell save Tribune from itself?

With all of the hubbub surrounding Tribune Co. (NYSE:TRB), you would think that the company was some red-hot startup that throngs of companies were eager to buy. Of course, nothing could be further from the truth.

Sam Zell has emerged as an unlikely suitor for the Chicago-based media company. He's made his fortune in real estate and has no experience in the media though he reportedly told the Chicago Tribune that newspapers were just like any other business.

Zell, who earned the nickname grave dancer for his ability to spot undervalued companies, is right to a point. Media companies need to sell a product that people want at a price that they will buy. There is a big point that eludes Zell and the other guys who are interested in the newspaper business.

Good news organizations will anger their major customers -- advertisers -- from time to time. If Zell is successful, he will be besieged by people looking to influence the editorial direction of the Los Angeles Times, Chicago Tribune and Newsday. He has to ignore all of it.

Believe it or not advertisers -- the ones who aren't angry -- want to be seen in credible news outlets because it lends legimimacy to their brands. If a media outlet isn't credible, big advertisers avoid it. Check out one of the supermarket tabloids and you'll see what I'm talking about.

Continue reading Can Sam Zell save Tribune from itself?

Chicago to LA Times: drop dead

la timesI just heard that Dean Baquet, the editor of the Los Angeles Times, has been pushed out by his Chicago-based overlords because he refused to oversee any more staff cuts.

Well, all of us members of the Fourth Estate, past and present, saw this coming. It's just another ill tiding for the newspaper industry.

The Tribune Company (NYSE:TRB), owners of the Chicago Tribune (and lots of other media outlets), own the Los Angeles Times. It's been relentless in its pursuit of profits, slashing staff and other resources. It's slowly starving its brand by trying to wring every last penny of profit out of its business. And when was the newspaper business ever a money-making operation?

Yes, the newspaper industry is dying. Yes, more people get their news now from the Internet or TV. Yes, advertising revenue has tanked, again thanks to the Internet. I'll even hazard to say there won't be newspapers as we know them in 20 years time. But it ain't dead yet. There are still millions of people who get a newspaper every day, for whatever reason. And those people want a good product. The Los Angeles Times was a good product. A great brand.

Continue reading Chicago to LA Times: drop dead

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