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Options Update: Louisiana Pacific volatility low at 77

Louisiana Pacific (NYSE: LPX) closed at $6.11. LPX September option implied volatility is at 78, November is at 77; below its 26-week average of 106 according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing price movement.

Seagate (NYSE: STX) closed at $12.30. STX September 10 puts were active on August 20 with volume of 4,564 contracts. STX September option implied volatility is at 49, December is at 51; below its 26-week average of 68, according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing price movement.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

Analyst upgrades, downgrades and initiations: CI, CCE, JBLU, LIZ, LLL

Analyst upgrades:

  • Oppenheimer upgraded FTI Consulting (NYSE:FCN) to Outperform from Perform on expectations the stock will outperform in the second half of 2009 due to easier comparisons and a "deeper and longer" restructuring cycle. The firm has a $62 target on shares.
  • Citigroup upgraded Cigna (NYSE:CI) to Hold from Sell to reflect reduced balance sheet risk following the company's capital raise and the potential for a PBM sale. The firm raised its target price to $23 from $13.
  • Goldman expects Coca-Cola Enterprises (NYSE:CCE) to benefit from favorable soda demand and lower commodity costs. The firm upgraded shares to Conviction Buy from Buy and has a $20 target on the stock.
  • Novellus (NASDAQ:NVLS) was raised to Buy from Neutral at Bank of America/Merrill.
  • CME Group (NASDAQ:CME) was upgraded at JP Morgan to Neutral from Underweight.
  • Allegiant (NASDAQ:ALGT) was upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley.

Continue reading Analyst upgrades, downgrades and initiations: CI, CCE, JBLU, LIZ, LLL

Analyst upgrades, downgrades and initiations: T, ADBE, GPS, RIMM, MCD, PFE ...

Analyst upgrades:
  • Citigroup upgraded Lubrizol (NYSE: LZ) to Buy from Hold on valuation as they believe economic weakness is already priced into the stock. Despite upgrading, Citigroup lowered their target price to $32 from $36.
  • UBS believes AT&T (NYSE: T) consensus estimates are beatable and that the 7.1% dividend yield is safe. Additionally, the firm said a strike is possible when the unionized wireline employee contract expires on April 4th but expects the company to succeed in lowering healthcare benefits. Shares were upgraded to Buy from Neutral.
  • Friedman Billings upgraded Adobe (NASDAQ: ADBE) to Market Perform from Underperform as they believe guidance appropriately reset expectations and that the risk/reward is neutral at current levels. The firm lowered their target price to $16 from $17. Shares were also upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jefferies after the Q1 results to reflect better-than-expected cost cuts and an attractive risk/reward at current levels.
  • Lousiana Pacific (NYSE: LPX) was raised to Sector Outperformer from Sector Performer at CIBC.
  • OmniVision (NASDAQ: OVTI) was upgraded at Baird to Neutral from Underperform.

Continue reading Analyst upgrades, downgrades and initiations: T, ADBE, GPS, RIMM, MCD, PFE ...

Analyst upgrades, downgrades and initiations: BHP, MRK, LUV, MA, AAUK ...

Analyst upgrades:
  • ING believes BHP Billiton (NYSE: BHP) will grow through acquisitions and is in a good position relative to peers. Shares were upgraded to Buy from Hold.
  • KeyBanc upgraded Kaman (NASDAQ: KAMN) to Buy from Hold based on valuation, higher foreign 2009 sales, and exposure to the military helicopter market, among other reasons.
  • Merck (NYSE: MRK) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Banc of Amerca/Merrill on valuation.
  • J Crew (JCG) was upgraded to Market Perform from Underperform at Keefe Bruyette.
  • UBS upgraded Expeditors (NASDAQ: EXPD) to Neutral from Sell.
  • CVB Financial (NASDAQ: CVBF) was raised to Hold from Sell at Sandler O'Neill.
Analyst downgrades:
  • Morgan Stanley downgraded Petrobras (NYSE: PBR) to Equal Weight from Overweight and lowered their target to $25 from $26 based on valuation and high Street estimates given lower oil prices and weaker currency.
  • CIBC downgraded Louisiana Pacific (NYSE: LPX) to Sector Performer from Outperformer. The analyst believes LPX may have to issue equity at these depressed levels given the tight credit markets and ongoing cash losses.
  • Calyon downgraded Southwest Airlines (NYSE: LUV) to Sell from Underperform and lowered their target to $7 from $8. The firm recommends taking profits in Southwest due to unit cost challenges given slowing growth and its reduced fuel hedging program.
  • CME Group (NASDAQ: CME) was downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Bernstein.
  • Keefe Bruyette downgraded shares of Amcore Financial (NASDAQ: AMFI) to Market Perform from Outperform.
  • Anglo American (NASDAQ: AAUK) was downgraded to Hold from Buy at Royal Bank of Scotland.
Analyst initiations:
  • Citigroup believes MasterCard (NYSE: MA) is vulnerable to the consumer spending slowdown and expects a more cautious outlook from management when the company reports earnings. Shares were initiated with a Sell rating and $110 target.
  • Janney Montgomery initiated GameStop (NYSE: GME) with a Buy rating and $34.50 target and expects GameStop to benefit from the secular growth in gaming, potential hardware cuts, international expansion, and 2009 title visibility.
  • Jefferies assumed Chicago Bridge & Iron (NYSE: CBI) with a Hold rating and $13 target and expects shares to be range-bound until the company shows progress on project execution and margin performance.
  • Gran Tierra Energy (GTE) was initiated at Wunderlich with a Buy rating.
  • Coverage of CME Group (AMEX: CME) was resumed with an Underweight rating at JP Morgan.
  • Shanda (NASDAQ: SNDA) was initiated with a Hold rating and $30 target at Roth Capital.

Analyst initiations: LECO, PSEC and GMXR

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Lincoln Electric, Prospect Capital and GMX Resources were today's noteworthy initiations:
  • Piper believes Lincoln Electric (NASDAQ: LECO) is positioned to capitalize on global infrastructure spending as a leading manufacturer of welding/metal fabrication equipment and materials. Shares were initiated with a Buy rating and $100 target.
  • Wachovia said Prospect Capital (NASDAQ: PSEC) has good visibility on portfolio growth and sees significant value in the potential sale of the company Gas Solutions business. The firm assumed shares with an Outperform rating.
  • Collins Stewart initiated GMX Resources (NASDAQ: GMXR) with a Buy rating and $67 target. The firm believes the company's drilling program will continue to drive both strong production and proved reserves growth.
OTHER INITIATIONS:
  • Louisiana Pacific (NYSE: LPX) was initiated at RBC Capital with an Underperform rating and $10 target.
  • The firm also started Mercer International (NASDAQ: MERC) with an Outperform rating and $11 target.
  • Keefe Bruyette initiated SWS Group (NYSE: SWS) with a Market Perform rating.

Analyst downgrades 6-13-07: AL, COST, DF and HOFF

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Some of today's more noteworthy downgrades included Dean Foods Co (DF), Louisiana-Pacific Corp (LPX), Costco Wholesale Corp (COST), Alcan Inc (AL) and Horizon Offshore, Inc (HOFF):
  • Dean Foods Co (NYSE: DF) was cut to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan to reflect future guidance concerns after management's cautious tone.
  • Louisana-Pacific Corp (NYSE: LPX) was downgraded to Strong Sell from Buy at Matrix USA. The firm believes a weak housing market is having a significant negative impact on shares and sees downside to $14/share.
  • Bear Stearns cut Alcan (NYSE: AL) to Peer Perform from Outperform based on valuation.
  • Oppenheimer downgraded Horizon Offshore (NASDAQ: HOFF) to Neutral from Buy on news of the acquisition by Cal Dive International (NYSE: DVR) as the firm believes the likelihood of a materially higher bid is low...
OTHER DOWNGRADES:
  • Nucor Corp (NYSE: NUE) was taken off Goldman's Conviction Buy List.
Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

Cramer's secondary and tertiary merger plays

On today's STOP TRADING! segment on CNBC, Cramer discussed the NYSE Group Inc. (NYSE:NYX) as still being the most attractive stock in the exchange sector even though IntercontinentalExchange Inc. (NYSE:ICE) has rallied the most.

This isn't Cramer's first note on NYX, as that was his #1 Growth Pick for 2007. On TXU Corp. (NYSE:TXU) merging, Cramer thinks that McDermott International (NYSE:MDR) is down too much at -5% on concern that it will lose TXU business.

Foster Wheeler Ltd (NASDAQ:FWLT) is one that Cramer thinks is still great on a post-asbestos basis. On Dow Chemical (NYSE:DOW), Cramer said the history of these deals may keep them up and he noted how Alcoa (NYSE:AA) has not fallen. Eastman Chemical Co. (NYSE:EMN) is the one he would do right now because it is too cheap. He also like Louisiana-Pacific Corp. (NYSE:LPX) after temple-Inland Inc. (NYSE:TIN) FINALLY announced its own break-up it had hoped for when he was a broker in 1991.

Newspaper wrap-up 1-26-07: Iran to attempt space launch

MAJOR PAPERS:
  • The Wall Street Journal's (subscription required) "Heard on the Street" column wrote that activist investor Carl Icahn has his eyes set on WCI Communities Inc. (NYSE:WCI).
  • The Financial Times (subscription required) reports that BAE Systems Plc. ADR (OTC:BAESY) faces a court challenge from anti-arms groups that want to know how private documents belonging to them ended up in the company's hands.
OTHER PAPERS:
  • Aviation Week reported that Iran said it is set to attempt a space launch. There is speculation it could be a cover for Iran testing longer-range missile strike technologies.
  • Investor's Business Daily's "New America" column focused on Home Inns & Hotels Management Inc. ADR (NASDAQ:HMIN), China's top budget hotel chain. The company went public in October and is in the midst of a building boom, leasing properties and adding franchises in fast growing cities across China.
  • BusinessWeek's "Inside Wall Street" column highlighted three companies:

Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA-93.7910,197.47
NASDAQ-17.882,149.02
S&P 500-11.271,087.24

Last updated: November 12, 2009: 05:35 PM

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