After seven months of tracking my 2008 picks -- Wham! -- I went from beating the indices and Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.B) to being humbled by the market. However difficult it is to display your failings, once again I will share all. This is the low point since I posted the original story Chasing Value: Final list -- 8 stocks for 2008.

Only Reliance Steel & Aluminum (NYSE: RS) remained in positive territory, down from five stocks that were up in the last report. Sometimes, the reasons for the downslide were more obvious than they were in the cases for my picks. The cutting in half of Valero Energy Corporation (NYSE: VLO) has been reported often, as the largest independent oil refiner in North America has had its profit margins squeezed.

Loews Corporation (NYSE: L) has been hurt by its insurance interests and helped by its holdings -- a 51% stake in Diamond Offshore Drilling, Inc. (NYSE: DO) that has been doing well as the world remains desperate for more oil and natural gas.

The gap between the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Standard & Poor's 500 Index and the technology heavy NASDAQ Composite Index is narrower than in the past.

Continue reading Chasing Value: 8 stocks for 2008 -- June/July, that sinking feeling

Chasing Value: 8 stocks for 2008 -- June/July, that sinking feeling originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 14 Aug 2008 12:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

The stock market is in turmoil today and the reasons can be found elsewhere (including in some peoples' imaginations). But if you are a bottom line investor, then here is where you should be looking. Food and energy exploration are the places to be.

Things can change rapidly, but as of right now food related stocks like Bunge Ltd. (NYSE: BG), the largest company involved with soy based products, and Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan (NYSE: POT), the largest fertilizer company, are up.

In the exploration sector, Anadarko Petroleum (NYSE: APC), the oil, gas and exploration company, Loews Corporation (NYSE: LTR), which is the majority shareholder in Diamond Offshore Drilling and is separating from its tobacco interests, and Precision Drilling TR (NYSE: PDS), the Canadian contract driller that is expanding into the lower 48 states, are all up.

All five stocks have out performed the market this year and that trend does not seem to be in jeopardy yet.

I will update this post with final results after the market close to see how the story ends.

UPDATE: four of the five closed in positive territory when all the major indices were in the red.

• APC finished down to $77.69, -0.54 (-0.69%)
• BG finished up to $122.40, +0.47 (+0.39%)
• LTR finished up to $48.95, +0.45 (+0.93%)
• PDS finished up to $26.95, +0.49 (+1.85%)
• POT finished up to $223.10 +2.54 (+1.15%)

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. He writes the columns Chasing Value and Serious Money. Disclosure: I own shares of APC and PDS.

Serious Money: What's up today? Food & drillers! originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 11 Jun 2008 13:45:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

The transaction will close as of trading on Tuesday, June 10. Lorillard is being distributed to the public via a two-tier process involving: 1) the retirement of the tracking stock Carolina Group (NYSE: CG), in exchange for which approximately 62% of Lorillard's common stock will be issued, and 2) an offer in which shares of S&P 500 constituent Loews Corp. can be exchanged for the remaining shares of Lorillard

It was a smart move by Loews company management to separate the tobacco company from its other interests in hospitality, oil exploration, real estate and insurance.

Continue reading Chasing Value: Lorillard Inc. joins the S&P 500

Chasing Value: Lorillard Inc. joins the S&P 500 originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 04 Jun 2008 15:33:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

After five months of tracking my 2008 picks, it is rewarding to finally have a breakthrough -- topping the three major stock indices and Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.B) too. It has been painful to have to report each month that I was being bested. However, since I have not seen anything contradicting my original rationale for my eight picks I stood my ground.

This past month saw great improvement. For the first time since I posted the original story Chasing Value: Final list -- 8 stocks for 2008, five of the eight stocks are up:

Moving into positive territory by pennies was Loews Corporation (NYSE: LTR). Among its holdings is a 51% stake in Diamond Offshore Drilling, Inc. (NYSE: DO) that has been doing well as the world remains desperate for more oil and natural gas.

Bunge Limited (NYSE: BG) was the other stock to cross the line into the black, while Valero Energy Corp. (NYSE: VLO), although improving, remains my worst performer. It is still down almost 28% after five months.

The gap between the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Standard & Poor's 500 Index and the technology heavy NASDAQ Composite Index narrowed substantially so that the three are tracking each other very closely. Stocks like Apple, Inc (NASDAQ: AAPL) and Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) continue to gain significantly and their outlooks have not been shaken amid overall pessimistic economic forecasts.

Continue reading Chasing Value: 8 stocks for 2008 -- May beats all

Chasing Value: 8 stocks for 2008 -- May beats all originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 02 Jun 2008 13:01:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

This month saw great improvement after last month's disaster. Having to conclude my findings on a specific month end day, or any day, depending on the news, sometimes distorts results. For example news on March 31 sent the market down and on April first my picks shot up an unusual amount; hopefully the trend will continue.

My riskiest stock pick Newcastle Investment Corp (NYSE: NCT) was down the most in March but recovered about 35% of the loss in April leaving Valero Energy Corp. (NYSE: VLO) the dubious honor of being my worst performer, down over 30% in the first four months of the year.

April showed improvement as many companies reported positive earnings reports or beat expectations.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained some ground in April as did the Standard & Poor's 500 Index, and the technology heavy NASDAQ Composite Index was up with stocks like Apple, Inc (NASDAQ: AAPL) and Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) improving significantly on very strong reports. Google is up over 25%.

Most of my picks improved. Higher food prices no doubt helped Bunge Limited (NYSE: BG) which recaptured losses moving up 23% from its recent bottom. My two winners Raytheon Co. (NYSE: RTN), the high tech defense contractor, and Reliance Steel & Aluminum (NYSE: RS) were joined by a third, Anglo American plc (ADR) (NASDAQ: AAUK) which had a 10% swing entering positive territory.

Continue reading Chasing Value: 8 stocks for 2008 -- April Bunge's back

Chasing Value: 8 stocks for 2008 -- April Bunge's back originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 01 May 2008 15:58:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

After three months it is time to face the facts: two of the three indices beat my picks handily. I have not made a good showing so far and unlike most investment idea sources, I feel obliged to air my dirty laundry for all to see.

My riskiest stock pick Newcastle Investment Corp (NYSE:NCT) is down almost 37% this year, and the energy stocks did almost as poorly even though fuel prices are near all-time highs. The downers were not offset by this months' repeat winners.

March was a seesaw battle, but in the end there was not much to show for it. However, unlike the last day of January (down 370 points in the Dow) and February's last trading day (down 315 points), March had a final day of plus 46.49, which is not very meaningful.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average gave some ground in March as did the Standard & Poor's 500 Index while the technology heavy NASDAQ Composite Index was marginally up with stocks like Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL) improving notably.

Most of my picks sagged a little more, while two remain in positive territory. Raytheon Co. (NYSE: RTN), the high tech defense contractor is up and Reliance Steel & Aluminum (NYSE: RS) is way up.

Continue reading Chasing Value: March review -- 8 stocks for 2008 -- not so refined

Chasing Value: March review -- 8 stocks for 2008 -- not so refined originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 07 Apr 2008 15:18:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Two months into the year and investors' true 'metal' was tested, and mine more than most. February showed signs of improvement over January, but the last week ended hopes of any rally. The last day of January saw a 370 point drop in the Dow and February's last trading day closed with similar results, down 315 points.

The soft stock market did display many points worth noting. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was about break even for the month, indicating investors were showing some signs of support for large cap stocks, prompted in part by news of increased profits at Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) and share buy-backs at IBM Corp (NYSE: IBM).

I cannot say the same for the other major indices, NASDAQ Composite Index and Standard & Poor's 500 Index, which dropped significantly last month.

Some of my picks also sagged a little more, although not as much, while two turned into positive territory. In January, only Raytheon Co. (NYSE: RTN), the high tech, defense contractor, was up. In February, the weak dollar and inflation concerns boosted Anglo American plc (ADR) and Reliance Steel & Aluminum (NYSE: RS) -- two commodity plays.

Continue reading Chasing Value: February review -- 8 stocks for 2008 -- testing my 'metal'

Chasing Value: February review -- 8 stocks for 2008 -- testing my 'metal' originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 03 Mar 2008 14:55:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Here are a few highlights of this past week's earnings coverage from BloggingStocks:

• Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (NYSE: ANF) beat estimates on strong sales and higher profit margins.
• Baidu.com Inc. (NASDAQ: BIDU) profit soared on strong revenue from online marketing.
• Coca-Cola Co. (NYSE: KO) earnings and revenue surged in the fourth quarer.
• Dean Foods Co. (NYSE: DF) missed expectations on rising commodity costs and lower profit margins.
• Deere & Co. (NYSE: DE) posted better-than-expected profits as rising grain prices spurred demand.
• Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co. (NYSE: GT) posted solid results on cost savings and debt reduction.
• Insight Enterprises Inc. (NASDAQ: NSIT) beat expectations and raised its guidance.
• LECG (NASDAQ: XPRT) posted a net loss despite a slight increase in revenue in the fourth quarter.
• Loews Corp. (NYSE: LTR) missed estimates due to profit decline in its CNA Financial (NYSE: CNA) affiliate.
• Marsh & McLennan Inc. (NYSE: MMC) missed estimates on weakness in its insurance services business.
• Playboy Enterprises Inc. (NYSE: PLA) posted disappointing results on weakness in publishing and TV.
• Qwest Communications International Inc. (NYSE: Q) fourth-quarter and full-year results met estimates.
• Sierra Wireless Inc. (NASDAQ: SWIR) beat esimates on the launch of new product s.
• Taser International Inc. (NASDAQ: TASR) profits doubled, which was in line with expectations.
• Visteon Corp. (NYSE: VC) posted a fourth-quarter loss on restructuring costs and write-downs.
• Waste Management Inc. (NYSE: WMI) beat espectations and offered 2008 guidance.
• Wyndham Worldwide Corp. (NYSE: WYN) earnings met expectations and were buoyed by lodging revenue.
• Zoltek Companies Inc. (NASDAQ: ZOLT) missed earnings estimates due to inventory buildup.

Upcoming results to watch for include Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT), Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ), OfficeMax (NYSE: OMX), Whole Foods (NASDAQ: WFMI), MGM Mirage (NYSE: MGM), JCPenney (NYSE: JCP), and Safeway (NYSE: SWY).

Visit AOL Money & Finance for more earnings coverage.

Earnings highlights: Coca-Cola, Deere, Abercrombie, Baidu, Playboy, Taser and others originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sat, 16 Feb 2008 15:40:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading Allstate (ALL) slips on Loews (LTR) earnings

Allstate (ALL) slips on Loews (LTR) earnings originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 11 Feb 2008 12:51:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

January was a wild ride and February holds the promise of more of the same after yesterday's 370 point drop in the Dow. All the major indices were down in January and so were seven of my eight picks. Only Raytheon Co. (NYSE: RTN), the high tech defense contractor, was up. My two high flyers from last year, Huaneng Power International, Inc. (ADR) (NYSE: HNP) and Valero Energy Corp. (NYSE: VLO), were the biggest losers.

I have not changed my opinion of these stocks from that of the original story Chasing Value: Final list -- 8 stocks for 2008 and I am following them closely for buying opportunities. We have already added more Newcastle Investment Corp. (NYSE: NCT) and Huaneng Power to our holdings.

Among the indices, the DJIA lost the least and the NASDAQ lost the most. The average return for my eight picks was -7.82%. This underperformed the average of the indices that was -7.58% -- but my new stalking horse Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.B) bested both, so Buffett is still the man.

Now including dividends for my picks which average 3.91% divided by 12 for the one month allows for an additional .326%, reducing the loss to -7.494%. Using 1.8% for the average dividend of the indices divided by 12 adds 0.15%, reducing the loss to -7.43%. The dividends tighted things up. BRK.B does not pay a dividend.

The following are my eight picks with the starting share price as of December 28, 2007:

Continue reading Chasing Value: January review -- 8 stocks for 2008

Chasing Value: January review -- 8 stocks for 2008 originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 06 Feb 2008 12:44:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading Don't confuse conglomerate Loews (LTR) with that other company

Don't confuse conglomerate Loews (LTR) with that other company originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 16 Jan 2008 17:12:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

I recently posted Chasing Value: Final list -- 8 stocks for 2008 and mentioned that all of them pay a dividend. If this year is going to be as gloomy as some would have you believe, then stocks that pay dividends, as a group, will outshine those that do not.

The following are my eight picks, with the closing stock price as of my start date December 28, 2007 and the dividend yield. Last year, there were more stocks among my picks that paid a dividend higher than the S&P 500 Index average of 1.8% . This year there are only two.

• Anglo American plc (ADR) (NASDAQ: AAUK) $30.79. 1.9%
• Bunge Limited (NYSE: BG) BG was $119.03. 0.56%
• Huaneng Power International, Inc. (ADR) (NYSE: HNP) HNP was $41.75. 3.5%
• Loews Corp. (NYSE: LTR) at $49.35. 0.50%
• Newcastle Investment Corp. (NYSE: NCT) was $13.08. 22%
• Raytheon Co. (NYSE: RTN) RTN was $61.51. 1.65%
• Reliance Steel & Aluminum (NYSE: RS) $54.32 per share. 0.58%
• Valero Energy Corp. (NYSE: VLO) VLO was $70.55. 0.66%

Continue reading Chasing Value: Final 8 -- love dividends

Chasing Value: Final 8 -- love dividends originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 07 Jan 2008 14:40:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

A few days behind schedule, but here is my list of eight stocks. Included in the list there are two holdovers from the 2007 list of seven stocks. I do not see any value in creating an entirely new list when I have done well over the years riding the winners. This is particularly true if the reasons you bought the stock in the first place remain valid.

These eight picks for the year will be tracked monthly with updated results. The initial share prices are from December 28, 2007. They are focused on defense, energy, food, gold, metals, mining, oil, power, and every one pays a dividends. The following are my "Quick Takes" in alphabetical order with links to the complete stories.

Anglo American plc (ADR) (NASDAQ: AAUK) is a world-class player in precious metals, diamonds, and commodities, which are all growing in demand. When the world economy is booming, all of its mining products are sought after, and when the market runs scared, gold goes up. It pays a dividend yield of 1.9% and is trading almost 25% off its 52-week high. For full story: Chasing Value: Anglo American diamonds and gold are your best friend. The closing price on December 28, 2007, for AAUK was $30.79.

Continue reading Chasing Value: Final list -- 8 stocks for 2008

Chasing Value: Final list -- 8 stocks for 2008 originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sat, 05 Jan 2008 15:10:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

• Russian President Vladimir Putin said today that Moscow could aim nuclear weapons at targets in Europe as part of "retaliatory steps" if Washington proceeds with building a missile defense system on the continent.
• After reaching levels not seen since 2000, European markets reacted to Putin's statement, naturally, but also to the Chinese stock market plunge. China's main stock index tumbled 8.3% Monday, extending losses from last week. Hong Kong and Japan stocks didn't follow China's example, however, gaining on the strong U.S. economic data. Similarly, other Pan-Pacific markets reached record highs.
  
• April factory orders are the only economic report due out today at 10:00 a.m. EDT. Orders are expected to have risen 0.7% after a 3.1% jump in March.

Before the bell 6-4-07: Putin, China, bonds -- stocks to start week lower originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 04 Jun 2007 08:07:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Johnson & Johnson: Overlooked large cap pharma stock originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 30 May 2007 11:17:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

• General theme was favoring large cap over small cap
• Technology is coming back into favor in addition to healthcare
• Investors should avoid Asia

Top fund managers congregate originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 29 May 2007 14:50:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Stock futures are negative to flat

Before the bell 2-12-07: Futures seen mostly lower originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 12 Feb 2007 07:57:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Oh boy, oh boy. This is not what anyone wanted to hear, I'm sure; not investors, not smokers and definitely not the general public. But we did hear it. A research from Harvard University's School of Public Health found that manufacturers increased the level of nicotine in major-brand cigarettes by 11% between 1997 and 2005.

Now, if I'm an Altria shareholder, am I happy Phillip Morris didn't increase nicotine in its Marlboros, or am I unhappy the company isn't doing more (like its rivals) to hook smokers? Well, Altria shares closed down 0.7% while Carolina Group's shares closed up 0.9% today. Perhaps it's just a coincidence.

More nicotine in cigarettes but not in Marlboro originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 18 Jan 2007 18:15:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.