Kohl's (NYSE: KSS) closed at $51.04 Tuesday. KSS overall option implied volatility of 46 is near its 26-week average according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional price movement.
Dillard (NYSE: DDS) closed at $13.05 Tuesday. DDS September option implied volatility of 80 is above its 26-week average of 65, indicating larger price movement.
Macy's (NYSE: M) closed at $21.62 Tuesday. M overall option implied volatility of 55 is near its 26-week average according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional price movement.
J.C. Penney (NYSE: JCP) closed at $40.63 Tuesday. JCP comparable store sales decreased 4.9% for the four-week period ended August 30, 2008, in-line with company guidance. JCP September option implied volatility of 50 is near its 26-week average, suggesting non-directional price movement.
Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com
TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says with gas coming down further, the coming rally could be broad and fierce.
The great hurricane fakeout leaves us with oil much lower than it began, having launched itself from $112. Now that the $110 level's been breached and natural gas has gone as low as $7.50, we can begin to put together a holiday scenario that might -- just might -- explain the incredible run in retail that's been going on.
The presumption in retail, if you use Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) (Cramer's Take) as retail, was that once the stimulus wore off, presumably last month, the stocks would get hammered. On Aug. 7, Wal-Mart as much as told you that, and the stock dropped to $57 from $60.90.
Ever since then, it has been creeping up. Kohl's (NYSE: KSS) (Cramer's Take) dropped a point from that warning, going from $45 to $44. It is now at $49. Macy's (NYSE: M) (Cramer's Take) went from $19.80 to $18.90 before bouncing to $20.82. Jones (NYSE: JNY) (Cramer's Take) went from $17.40 to $17.20 before roaring to $19.80. Ralph Lauren (NYSE: RL) (Cramer's Take), because of a great quarter, didn't even get hurt, rallying from $67 to $75.
JP Morgan upgraded O'Reilly (NASDAQ: ORLY) to Overweight from Neutral, citing increased demand and CSK acquisition synergies.
Yamana Gold (NYSE: AUY) was raised to Outperform from Sector Perform by RBC Capital, based on valuation and the firm's expectation that gold will rally.
HSBC upgraded KLA-Tencor (NASDAQ: KLAC) to Overweight from Neutral with a $44 target.
Analyst downgrades:
Bernstein dropped DISH Network (NASDAQ: DISH) to Underperform from Market Perform, citing continued weak operations, declining cash flow, and satellite sector headwinds, among other reasons.
Macy's (NYSE: M) was downgraded to Neutral from Buy by Goldman Sachs based on valuation.
Kohl's (NYSE: KSS) was also dropped to Neutral from Buy by Goldman based on valuation.
UBS downgraded Dr Pepper Snapple (NYSE: DPS) to Neutral from Buy based on valuation.
Analyst initiations:
Salesforce.com (NYSE: CRM) was started with a Buy rating by Kaufman Bros., which believes the core on-demand CRM application market is nowhere close to full penetration.
Caris initiated Eli Lilly (NYSE: LLY) with a Below Average rating, citing the company's Zyprexa and Cymbalta patent expirations.
Leerink Swann assumed coverage of Amgen (NASDAQ: AMGN) with an Outperform, as the firm predicts that the company's denosumab will allow the company to substantially increase its earnings starting in 2010.
TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says lower gas prices mean the numbers are too low.
People are missing this retail move. They are missing it because the market is deciding right now that the guidance companies are giving is just plain wrong given the $3.50 at the pump (although premium's a lot more expensive). They are also recognizing that the strong are surviving and thriving and taking share in a radical fashion -- witness Lowe's (NYSE: LOW) (Cramer's Take), which must be killing Sears (NASDAQ: SHLD) (Cramer's Take) and the mom-and-pop shops out there.
When I met with Lowe's last year, they told me that they have picked up share in every downturn. They did not know when the downturn would end or when you would see the results, but they were confident that the longer the downturn lasted, the more likely they would be to have pulled away from their competition.
Macy's (NYSE: M) didn't do too well in its second-quarter according to the earnings report, but it did beat profit expectations. Net revenues saw a decline of 3%, coming in at $5.7 billion. Adjusted net income from continuing operations was $0.29 per diluted share. According to this article, the call from the wizards of Wall Street was for $0.19 per share.
That's quite a beat, I'll grant you, but there are some caution signs investors must read regarding Macy's. As the article mentioned, the outlook isn't that great, and the retailer doesn't expect much from same-store sales as it goes into the autumn. In fact, sales should either be flat or will decline slightly. Same-store sales represent an important metric for retail chains, and if that metric can't be delivered, then investors need to take notice. For the quarter, comps were down a little over 2%. Over the last six months, comps were down by roughly the same amount.
Net cash provided by operating activities actually went up 44% to $592 million. The gross margin also improved. Cool stuff, perhaps, but they still don't change my bearish inclination toward the company. Macy's is still trying to turn itself around and become a player in retail, but it will be tough considering the economic challenges that the entire industry is currently facing. It's not going to be a strong holiday season for the company, and in terms of investment ideas, I'd still look at Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) or Target (NYSE: TGT) in the retail sector. I don't see any reason to put money to work in Macy's (some do, though, since the stock is up almost 2% as I write this, and it has done very well over the last month, according to the AOL Finance snapshot).
Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change at any time.
U.S. stock futures were mixed Wednesday ahead of retail sales, import price data and oil inventories reports. Analysts expect retail sales, to be reported at 8:30 a.m., rose 0.5% in July. Futures may find direction after the report. Meanwhile, oil futures rose ahead of the inventory report due out at 10:35 a.m., the dollar fell against some currencies and gold futures rose. [Update: Following a decline in retail sales in July, futures turned lower.]
Deere & Co. (NYSE: DE) has just reported quarterly results and shares sank 6.1% in premarket trade. The world's largest maker of farm machinery, said earnings in the latest quarter rose 7% and revenue increased 17% as soaring crop prices boosted global demand for its agricultural equipment. The company, however, missed on earnings and gave forecast that was lower than estimations.
Earnings are still due from Macy's (NYSE: M), among others.
Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) shares rose 7.3% in premarket trading despite reporting a $121 million loss Tuesday. Investors liked that Nvidia announced a stock buyback of $1 billion and predicted margin improvement.
Applied Materials (NASDAQ: AMAT) also rose, up 1.2% in premarket trading after the largest maker of semiconductor-production machinery forecast better-than-estimated orders and CEO Mike Splinter said conditions will improve. Its fiscal third-quarter profit plunged 65%, but sales results beat estimates.
TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says all that money has to go somewhere, and this is a likely destination.
Clash of the ideals! Oil's down, and what can you buy when there's so much bad bank news? What can you buy when Wachovia (NYSE: WB) (Cramer's Take) is boosting reserves and Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS)) (Cramer's Take) is still being pursued by authorities and JPMorgan (NYSE: JPM) (Cramer's Take) says July stunk and UBS (NYSE: UBS) (Cramer's Take) is so tarnished that you can't believe it was once the most conservative blue chip out there.
The answer is tech, of course!
Wait a second. Would anyone mind if we actually had a reason to buy tech beyond the Kindle, the device that made Citigroup gaga about Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) (Cramer's Take) -- not that you needed a device to do that.
Sure, we have pre-seasonality. Remember, you are supposed to buy tech at the end of the summer, not that anyone waits that long.
Even with the stimulus checks, retail sales numbers for June and July have been nothing to cheer about. And this coming week should provide another look at how things have been shaping up in the apparel and accessories arena. A number of companies are scheduled to release quarterly numbers, from upscale retailer Nordstrom to the parent of discounter TJ Maxx, from hipster Urban Outfitters to global giant Wal-Mart. Here's a look at what Wall Street is anticipating.
Analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial expect the following to report strong earnings growth when compared to the same period of the previous year.
"One group of stocks that has always intrigued us are those whose symbols have one letter," notes George Putnam. The editor of The Turnaround Letter explains, "Odd as this idea may at first seem, it actually makes some sense for a deep value investor. These are often old-line companies with well-known brand names. In some cases the single letter symbols were awarded many decades ago."
After reviewing the 19 stocks with single letter symbols (7 are currently unused), Putnam offers six that he says, have been "beaten down pretty badly and now look particularly appealing."'
"Agilent Technologies (NYSE: A), which makes electronic and bio-analytic measuring devices, was spun out of Hewlett-Packard in 1999. Revenues surged in 2000 as did the stock price, reaching a lofty 162.
"But the company subsequently suffered along with its customers in the communications and technology sectors. However, the financials are sound, including strong cash flow that is supporting a $2 billion share buyback, and management has been restructuring and realigning operations for long-term growth.
TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says our problems are so widespread, he sees lots more IndyMacs before we're out.
You don't need me to tell you it's awful out there. You don't need me to tell you that there's no quick fix for any of these things. But what might help you understand why it feels so bad this time is that I have never, in my career, seen so many companies go off track at the same time. This is one unbelievable moment, and it is made more horrible by the day as companies' stocks just get pummeled, causing people to then question the very viability of the companies involved.
First, obviously, are Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) (Cramer's Take) and Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE) (Cramer's Take). We don't know what will happen, but we do know that their futures are much darker than their pasts. Their best hope: a Democrat becomes president and shows the usual love to both. But as investments, they are pretty much perma-losers going forward. The losses are that heavy. Yes, it is true that two years from now they will be better, but will the government let them limp through to that? View them as calls on a Democratic win.
We all know that Citigroup (NYSE: C) (Cramer's Take), Wachovia (NYSE: WB) (Cramer's Take), Washington Mutual (NYSE: WM) (Cramer's Take) and National City (NYSE: NCC) (Cramer's Take) are in trouble. Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) (Cramer's Take) says it isn't in trouble, but obviously the market doesn't believe management because the stock failed to rally when it said its dividend was safe. Any short-selling hedge fund could hire 30 actors and have them line up at a Washington Mutual or two and get a bank run going. Then we would have to hear about a "hasty" Treasury department plan to bail out WM. Hasty? How can these guys not see it coming?
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Genzyme, Dean Foods and Key Energy Services were today's noteworthy upgrades:
Citigroup upgraded shares of Genzyme (NASDAQ: GENZ) to Buy from Hold as it sees EPS upside in 2008 and 2009 from the company's three upcoming product launches and improving operating margins. Citigroup raised its target to $91 from $80.
JP Morgan upgraded Dean Foods (NYSE: DF) to Overweight from Neutral citing valuation and expectations for dairy costs to decline.
Banc of America upgraded shares of Key Energy Services (NYSE: KEG) to Buy from Neutral to reflect the company's increasing pricing power and projected margin expansion for well services and growth opportunities in the shale plays. The firm raised its target price to $22 from $18.
OTHER UPGRADES:
Domtar (NYSE: UFS) was raised to Outperform from Sector Perform at RBC Capital.
Gladstone (NASDAQ: GOOD) was upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Baird.
JP Morgan upgraded Macy's (NYSE: M) to Neutral from Underweight.
Goldman upgraded Rexam (OTC: REXMY) to Buy from Neutral.
UBS downgraded Wachovia (NYSE:WB) to "neutral" from "buy" according toBriefing.com. The news service also reports that JP Morgan upgraded Macy's (NYSE:M) to "neutral" from "underweight."
"Analysts polled by Thomson Financial expect Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) to report second-quarter income of 25 cents per share on revenue of $9.32 billion," according to the AP.
Ciena (NASDAQ:CIEN) raised to Market Perform at JMP Securities, according to24/7 Wall St.
Today's inflation report was the main reason for the rally as it looks like prices nominally are not getting much worse. But as I noted, that's true if you don't go to the gas station or grocery store. Home foreclosures rose yet again, and that may be something to get used to. Oil prices were down down $1.86 to $123.94 per barrel in after-hours trading. Here are the unofficial closing index levels:
China Architectural Engineering, Inc. (AMEX: RCH) saw another massive rise today based upon the Chinese earthquake. Shares were up 40% at $8.38 at the end of the day. Architecture, engineering, China, earthquake... what more did traders need to hear?
Deere & Co. (NYSE: DE) saw a sharp drop in shares after reporting earnings, and it pulled down other ag-stocks. The company said it was being impacted by tight part supplies and rising materials costs, and that sent shares tumbling 10% to $81.10 in the final minutes today.
Macy's (NYSE: M), which was forecast to report a loss of a penny a share in the first quarter, said the difficult retail environment hurt sales and it incurred costs from a restructuring. The loss came to $59 million, or 14 cents a share, compared with a profit of $36 million, or 8 cents a share, a year earlier. (As the numbers are quite fresh, it's possible they include one-time item not yet sorted out and not comparable to analyst expectations.)
John Deere (NYSE: DE) said its second-quarter profit rose 22%. Deere experienced increased demand for its farm equipment, as crop prices kept rising, posting an 18% increase in sales. Profit for the quarter jumped to $763.5 million, or $1.74 per share, a penny below analyst estimates. From premarket early action, it seems shares of DE might start much lower.
Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE) also reported this morning, saying its first quarter loss widened to $151 million as the U.S. housing market worsened. Somehow, though, the results were not as poor as expected and FRE's loss of 66 cents a share beat estimates of a 92 cents a share loss. FRE's shares are up over 6% in premarket trading.
Still on earnings, last night Whole Foods (NASDAQ: WFMI) and Electronic Arts (NASDAQ: ERTS) reported results. Shares of WFMI are plunging nearly 9% in premarket trading as the organic grocery chain reported a worse-than-forecast 13% profit fall.
Electronic Arts (NASDAQ: ERTS) shares are also declining over 2.8% in premarket trading after the suitor of Take-Two Interactive (NASDAQ: TTWO) reported a widening quarterly loss and a disappointing outlook.
Kohl's (NYSE: KSS) closed at $51.04 Tuesday. KSS overall option implied volatility of 46 is near its 26-week average according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional price movement. 
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Macy's
U.S. stock futures were mixed Wednesday ahead of retail sales, import price data and oil inventories reports. Analysts expect retail sales, to be reported at 8:30 a.m., rose 0.5% in July. Futures may find direction after the report. Meanwhile, oil futures rose ahead of the inventory report due out at 10:35 a.m., the dollar fell against some currencies and gold futures rose.
Even with the stimulus checks, retail sales numbers for June and July have been 
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The week in preview: Chicken soup (or a doughnut) for the recession-weary soul?
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