Analyst Upgrades

• JMP Securities views Yahoo!'s (YHOO) risk-reward as compelling, especially as cyclical and secular growth of online advertising improves. The firm upgraded shares to outperform from market perform and has a $21 target.
• FBR Capital upgraded PNC Financial (PNC) to outperform from market perform, citing an attractive valuation and better risk profile following the company's capital raise. The firm raised its target price on shares to $65 fro $55.
• Janney Montgomery upgraded SEI Investments (SEIC) to buy from neutral on expectations the company's revenues will accelerate in 2011. The firm has a $28 price target on shares.
• Research in Motion (RIMM) was upgraded to outperform from market perform at BMO Capital.
• Cisco (CSCO) was upgraded to overweight from neutral at JPMorgan.
• Macy's (M) was upgraded to buy from hold at Soleil.

Here are some highlights from this past week's earnings coverage on BloggingStocks:

• American International Group Inc. (AIG) posted a big loss and warned it may require additional assistance.
• Athenahealth (ATHN) shares sank after it delayed earnings and its annual report, and warned of restatements.
• Barnes & Noble Inc. (BKS) Q3 sales jumped on popularity of the Nook reader but same-store sales declined.
• Brocade Communications Systems Inc. (BRCD) disappointing report and guidance caused a sell-off in shares.
• Dell Inc. (DELL) acquisitions and better-than-expected earnings may not be enough to stop shrinking market share.
• Gap Inc. (GPS) rose after it beat earnings estimates, raised its dividend and announced stock buybacks.

Tuesday morning was a big one for retail earnings, with Home Depot, Macy's, Sears and Target reporting good news.

Barnes & Noble (BKS) total sales came to $2.2 billion in fiscal third quarter, a 33% increase year over year. Earnings were $80.2 million, or $1.38 per share. However, same-store sales slipped 4.7% from a year ago to $1.4 billion, despite strength from BN.com due to demand for the Nook. The company expects comps to decline in the fourth quarter, and forecast full-year earnings below consensus estimates.

With reduced national income due to unemployment, reduced spending power due to tightened credit, reduced wealth due to falling home and stock market values and reduced confidence due to all of the above, we are seeing consumers take on new attitudes toward spending.

This "New Frugal" will not be a fad that passes quickly. U.S. consumers will continue to keep their purse strings tightened.

I love my country: the chaos, the hurly-burly of democracy, the hard work of quiet people and the great, big heart as shown by our private donations to Haiti at a time of near 20% unemployment and underemployment. We forgive wayward politicians and athletes, let our children make more decisions than virtually any people on Earth and we stand for something -- a true city on a hill. But right now, that city is in political chaos ... and pretty broke.

Although, I don't like to say it, it is time to short the United States.

Retailers appear to have been rescued at the last minute, according to data from the International Council of Shopping Centers. Shoppers looking for deals the week before Christmas -- and making up for the day lost to stormy weather on the East Coast -- spent aggressively, sparing the retail sector a dismal 2008-like performance.

The healthy conclusion to the holiday season led to a positive change from November and made December one of only three months (including September and October) in which retail sales increased year-over-year.

This week, the world's top retailers will tell investors how the much-discussed holiday season went. Analysts expect a year-over-year gain of 1.3% for stores open at least a year, which of course uses a dismal 2008 as a benchmark.

The holiday shopping season is the last chance retailers get to pump up their financial statements before the close of their fiscal year, which usually comes at the end of January. For some retailers, up to 40% of their revenue comes in the weeks heading into Christmas.

Anxious to grab every last dollar they can out of holiday shoppers, retailers are pulling out all the stops. Especially given the snowstorm on the East Coast last week, they have to make up some ground, and time is running out. They lost the Saturday before Christmas, one of the busiest shopping days of the year -- and a favorite of people like me who wait until the last minute.

"Super Saturday," as it's called, was off close to 13% compared to last year, says research firm ShopperTrak. Only $6.9 billion came in, off $1 billion-year-over-year. And, let's not forget that 2008 was a drag. Its $7.9 billion performance was down from $8.7 billion in 2007.

Sluggish retail sales in November didn't stop retailers from adding bodies. A report by outplacement consulting company Challenger, Gray & Christmas, reavealed to BloggingStocks, shows that retail sector payrolls grew to 321,300 in November, an improvement from the previous month's 233,700. This follows 54,200 retail hires in October, bringing the total number of seasonal retail employees up to 375,500. Already, that comes close to the 384,300 hired from October through December in 2008. The analysis is based on data supplied by the Department of Labor.

High expectations for the holiday season likely contributed to the up-tick in hiring. The estimated 0.5% growth from Black Friday 2008 to Black Friday 2009 was a disappointment, and November sales were off 0.3%, surprising analysts, who expected the trend to go in the other direction. Costco (COST) and Limited Brands (LTD) came out ahead, but most retailers, including Target (TGT) and Macy's (M) struggled. Saks (SKS) is also suffering from an anemic luxury goods market.

There has been a rumor floating around that Amazon (AMZN) plans to open physical stores. Really?! Stores?!

Amazon is a known quality in the online retail space -- it's the industry leader. That's a great place to be right now. On Black Friday, overall retail sales edged higher only 0.5%, but online action spiked 35%. Let's do the math, why the hell would anyone move from zeroes and ones to bricks and mortars?

Two months of momentum and Black Friday weren't enough to make November a winner for retailers. The holiday shopping season kickoff was up only 0.5% year-over-year, and the month as a whole saw retail sales fall 0.3% year-over-year. As if the drop weren't bad enough, it's a decline on top of last year's November retail freefall, which means we went from bad to worse.

Meanwhile, analysts had expected a strong increase. U.S. government data on retail sales isn't due to be reported until December 11, 2009, and it's expected to be a better indicator of the sector's performance. The data released Thursday doesn't include sales by Wal-Mart (WMT).

Online retail sales are expected to increase 3% to $28.8 billion for this year's holiday season. The analysts at comScore include traditional retailers, like Macy's (M) in this estimate, but don't count auction sites like eBay (EBAY), travel or corporate sales. The estimate compares favorably against the National Retail Federation's forecast of a 1% year-over-year drop for all retail sales and exceeds the industry's most aggressive holiday season sales estimates of 2%.

Last year, online retail sales fell 3% for the holiday season, the first decline since the industry started keeping score in 2001. Even if we don't hit the 3% growth level this year, 2009 is still expected to be better than 2008, now that the economy has stabilized (at least relative to last year).

Stores were busy on Black Friday, as deals lured recession-weary consumers out of their homes. The spending was cautious, but the crowds and transactions signaled strength.

Nonetheless, retailers are still concerned that the momentum is only temporary. With consumer spending still under pressure because of high unemployment, there's a risk that holiday shopping may not reach the levels the stores would like to see. The day after Thanksgiving is usually the hottest of the year and can account for close to 20% of annual retail sales.