Iconic, battle-honed retailer Macy's Inc. (M), first discussed here on June 17, 2009, at a price of $11.23, has pulled back slightly to about $23 after a better-than-decent run-up in 2010. But just view that dip as an opportunity to scoop up shares of a preferred company.

Further, the modifier "battle-honed" has been used because "Big M" has survived the worst U.S. economic contraction since the Great Depression, a downturn that hammered the retail sector.

Macy's should post a FY2012 same-store sales increase of 3% to 4%, followed by a similar rise in FY2013.

On Thursday, Dillard's (DDS) announced that it plans to form a wholly-owned real estate investment trust. The company will transfer some of its properties to the REIT and then lease back the properties from the entity. The company said that the move may enhance its ability to access debt or preferred stock and improve its liquidity.

The market is currently pricing REITs at rich valuations, and the transaction will allow Dillard's to better monetize its significant real-estate assets. By transferring these holdings into a publicly traded REIT, Dillard's should be able to unlock additional shareholder value. According to Craig Johnson, an analyst at Customer Growth Partners, "the sum of the parts can be greater than the sum of the whole."

Analyst Upgrades

• Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) to buy from neutral at UBS.
• Fluor (FLR) to overweight from neutral at JPMorgan.
• Macy's (M) to outperform from neutral at Credit Suisse.
• Canadian Solar (CSIQ), JA Solar (JASO) and HeartWare (HTWR) to buy from hold at Auriga.
• Ashford Hospitality (AHT) to outperform from market perform at FBR Capital.
• RenaissanceRe (RNR) to buy from neutral at Janney Capital.
• DCT Industrial (DCT) to market perform from underperform at Wells Fargo.
• Coeur d'Alene Mines (CDE) and Silver Standard (SSRI) to buy from hold at Deutsche Bank.
• Weatherford (WFT), Hercules (HERO), GulfMark Offshore (GLF), Tidewater (TDW) and GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) to buy from hold, and Diamond Offshore (DO) to hold from underperform, at Jefferies.
• Ritchie Bros. (RBA) to buy from neutral at BofA/Merrill.
• AstraZeneca (AZN) to buy from hold at Citigroup.

Battle-honed retail chain Macy's (M), first discussed here on June 17, 2009, at a price of $11.23, has pulled-back slightly, after a better-than-decent run-up in 2010, but just view that dip as an opportunity to consider the shares.

Moreover, the modifier "battle-honed" has been used because iconic retailer Macy's has survived the worst U.S. economic contraction since the Great Depression -- a downturn that hammered the retail sector.

Last week, Macy's (M) and JCPenney (JCP) kicked off the retail earnings season by posting better-than-expected earnings for the most recent quarter. Many more quarterly reports from retailers are due this week, and by and large expectations of analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters are high.

Walmart (WMT), the king of retailers, is expected to buck the trend, though. Analysts anticipate that the Bentonville-based company will report that its third-quarter earnings grew only 6.7% year-over-year to 90 cents per share. During the three months that ended in October, Walmart announced an acquisition in South Africa and kicked-off the holiday shopping season, and revenue for that period is predicted to have risen 3.0% to $102.4 billion. Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, analysts so far expect sequential and year-over-year growth of both earnings and revenue. Walmart results have not fallen short of consensus estimates in the past five quarters.

This week, JCPenney (JCP), Kohl's (KSS) and Macy's (M) are the first of the major retailers to report results for the most recent quarter.

Macy's launched an American Express credit card and increased its mobile presence during the fiscal fourth quarter. The analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters forecast Macy's earnings for that period come to three cents per share, which compares to a net loss of three cents per share in the same period of last year. The Cincinnati-based department store operator is expected to post revenue of $5.6 billion for the three months that ended in October, which is 5.2% more than a year earlier. For the full year, the forecast calls for earnings of $1.50 per share (+6.7%) and $8.2 billion in revenue (+4.3%). Macy's earnings results have been better than expected in recent quarters by a penny or a few per share.

As the earnings season begins to wind down, retail earnings move into the spotlight. Already, JCPenney (JCP), Kohl's (KSS) and Macy's (M) have posted earnings that topped consensus estimates, though the former two also offered disappointing guidance, and Nordstrom (JWN) met earnings expectations.

Many more retailers are scheduled to post their second-quarter results this week, including Walmart (WMT), Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF), and Dollar Tree Stores (DLTR), whose earnings expectations we'll take a closer look at here.

JCPenney (JCP) fell to a new 52-week low of $20.20 Friday morning after its second-quarter results included weaker-than-expected full-year earnings estimates.

JCPenney said growth of store and Internet sales, as well as tightly controlling expenses, resulted in record-level gross margins for the period. Earnings totaled $14 million, or 6 cents per share, in the quarter, compared to a loss of $1 million, or break-even per share, in the same quarter of last year. Analysts' estimates were topped by a penny per share.

On a down day for the markets, it's nice to see some strength. Macy's (M) is getting a healthy bid in response to the retailer's Q2 numbers. At least, that's what's happening at the time of this writing (hopefully, the stock can retain its green status through the closing bell). It's up over 4% to $20.23. Volume is rocking.

I'm wary of this equity, though. It fooled me the last time. After the Q1 report was released near the middle of May, I thought it might be an interesting trade idea. It has slid ever since, as the following chart indicates.

Analyst Upgrades

• Goldman believes EOG Resources (EOG) can regain its premium multiple given its ability to find new horizontal liquids resource plays. The firm upgraded shares to conviction buy from buy and has a $129 price target on the stock.
• Deutsche Bank upgraded Macerich (MAC) to buy from hold following the company's Q2 results and raised its target for shares to $47 from $45.
• Needham upgraded QuinStreet (QNST) to strong buy from buy, citing the strong Q4 report and valuation, and has a $20 target on the stock.
• Macy's (M) was upgraded to buy from neutral at BofA/Merrill.
• Whole Foods (WFMI) was upgraded to buy from neutral at UBS.
• Texas Instruments (TXN) was upgraded to outperform from market perform at Raymond James.

Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC) meets again on Tuesday. Though the August meeting of the FOMC is generally uneventful, this time there is speculation about whether the FOMC will resort again to some quantitative easing -- a way of pumping additional money into the financial system.

Fed chairman Ben Bernanke has already hinted at such a move, given that economic growth has clearly slowed. Last week's disappointing employment numbers are the latest confirmation of that. The question is whether the Fed's decision to take action will happen at this week's meeting, perhaps aggravating deflation fears, or it may wait until the September meeting, at which point it risks impacting the upcoming mid-term elections.