mad money posts
FeedPosted Aug 18th 2007 8:45AM by Peter Cohan (RSS feed)
Filed under: Television, Indices, Market Matters, Personal Finance, S and P 500, DJIA
"Fed Chair" James Cramer enjoyed taking credit for yesterday's announcement that the Fed had eased its Discount Rate. But today's Barron's takes him to task for trying to keep Mad Money viewers from measuring the extent to which his stock picks underperform the market indices.
Cramer has accomplished many things. He managed a hedge fund, started TheStreet.com (NASDAQ: TSCM) which survived the dot-com bust, he writes columns for New York magazine, and he provides a unique blend of entertainment and stock touting on CNBC.
But Barron's analysis of his stock picks over the last two years suggests that you would have been better off buying a low-cost stock index fund. Barron's cites an analysis by YourMoneyWatch.com that analyzed his stock picks between 7/28/05 and 8/17/07 -- finding that Cramer's picks lagged the general market averages. Specifically, his picks were up 12%, the Dow Jones Industrials Average rose 22%, the S&P 500 gained 16% and the NASDAQ was up 14%.
Continue reading Fed Chair Cramer's stock pix lag the market
Posted Aug 17th 2007 10:53AM by Peter Cohan (RSS feed)
Filed under: Economic Data, S and P 500, DJIA, Housing
Fed Chair James Cramer -- or was that Ben Bernanke? -- announced that the Fed was cutting its discount rate 50 basis points this morning.
If you have not watched James Cramer's tantrum about interest rate cuts, view this clip. I heard about this rate cut as I was driving this morning at 8:30 -- NPR reported the Fed had cut the rate by half a percent to 5.75%. The important thing here is that the Fed cut the Discount Rate -- which is largely symbolic since it is a rate charged only to qualified banks -- not the one that Cramer was ranting about. That rate, the Fed Funds rate -- which affects rates that consumers pay on various types of loans -- remains at 5.25%.
Cramer sounded ecstatic on CNBC this morning. He predicted that today would be the biggest point move in history. Now, he said he "loves" Bernanke. Yesterday's goat is today's hero.
Markets have responded with jubilation this morning. But it remains to be seen how much of that jubilation is traders covering the short positions they put on after watching Asian markets tumble. The bigger issue is that the Fed obviously is scared of something big that we don't know about. It decided that the negatives of the rate cut -- bailing out Wall Street for its risky bets and taking the pressure off persistent inflation -- are dwarfed by something much worse.
Continue reading Fed Chair James Cramer cuts rates 50 basis points
Posted Aug 16th 2007 8:20PM by Jon Ogg (RSS feed)
.Tonight on CNBC's MAD MONEY, Jim Cramer tauted Reynolds American (NYSE:RAI) as a high dividend stock with a safe yield that out pays US treasury yields. Even with the 5.5% yield he thinks this dividend is not at risk like some other high yield stocks. He sounded like he even likes it better than Altria (NYSE:MO) as the smokeless tobacco is doing well.
I have noted before about defensive stocks being the way to go and those companies' products are the ones you eat, drink, smoke, and use for critical personal hygiene (toilet paper, tooth paste, deodorant... you get the idea). We noted the sector back on our own list we titled "Defensive Stocks For A Crummy Market" recently, although we had others. Defensive investing is what investors will flock to when they have to own stocks but want to be a bit more conservative than chasing the "New Four Horsemen of Tech" or want to go for less aggressive picks than say his TOP NINE STOCKS for 2007.
Jon Ogg is a partner at 24/7 Wall St. and publisher of Special Situation Investing Newsletter. He does not own securities in the companies he covers.
Posted Aug 9th 2007 8:00PM by Jon Ogg (RSS feed)
Filed under: Intel (INTC), Advanced Micro Dev (AMD)
Tonight on CNBC's MAD MONEY, Jim Cramer said that tech is currently not in the "you gotta sell" boat during a crummy market. He said these are awash in cash and buying back stock left and right, Also, they have no mortgage and CDO exposure. He thinks that
Intel Corp. (NASDAQ:
INTC) is the one to own now with August usually the bottom of the chip cycle and heading into the fourth quarter. The stock is down over $2.00 from recent highs, is cheaper than and killing
Advanced Micro Devices (NYSE:
AMD), and sells at 21-times next year's earnings with a 12% growth rate that is accelerating. He thinks you should buy it this month.
I could argue this either way, but frankly I am not ready to kill the whole market. In a boxing match between Paul Otellini and Hector Ruiz, I'd bet on Otellini any day. If you believe that the PC-cycle is real then this one will work. Frankly, it is still the safer bet in chip and processor land. It is holding up pretty well for a crummy market and I think AMD has gotten itself into a
borrowing pickle that it won't get out of until it can change its entire business model. Intel shares fell 3% with the broad market today to $23.92 and shares are up 0.2% after the Cramer tout here. Oddly enough, Jim Cramer didn't once mention any of his
"New Four Horsemen of Tech" in this. This is one of the "Old Horsemen," but old horses know the tricks that young studs haven't learned yet.
Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.Posted Aug 7th 2007 8:17AM by Georges Yared (RSS feed)
Filed under: Rants and Raves
Jim Cramer made a complete fool of himself on television yesterday. Erin Burnett of CNBC was trying to have a civil and informative conversation with him when he lost it. She wanted to discuss the already fragile credit markets when Cramer let loose a tirade that Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke was playing "academic games."
Wake up Cramer. The Federal Reserve rarely reacts to a couple of lousy weeks of trading in the markets. The Fed reacts to economic conditions and not volatile market conditions. Cramer shilled for some of his Wall Street buddies that are facing tough times. " I speak to them all day" he said. No kidding Jim. I am sure Fed boss Bernanke speaks to a few people too.
I speak to portfolio managers and trading desks all over the world on a daily basis. Yes, those that trade fixed-income paper may have a really crummy year and -- as is the Wall Street way -- jobs may be lost. We don't hear Cramer screaming and yelling when Wall Street is hiring en masse, just when it lays off people. Traders know how the game works: feast or famine. Traders prefer this, as the feast is quite often seven-figure bonuses. The famines can last a year and then they land with another firm as the feast is perceived to be arriving.
Cramer has passion, but in this case it was misguided. He allowed the rants of his trading-desk buddies to get to him. Cramer hurt his supposed objectivity, especially when he threw out the term "Armageddon." The word Armageddon was the trading-desk world mantra this past Thursday and Friday.
Posted Aug 6th 2007 3:30PM by Jon Ogg (RSS feed)
Filed under: Under Armour'A' (UA)
Does
lululemon Athletica Inc. (NASDAQ:
LULU) really feel like
Under Armour Inc. (NYSE:
UA)? The long and short of it is "NO, it doesn't." But there are many merits ahead, and the underlying "sport" of yoga has actually continued to grow in appeal to the masses. Yoga, it seems, isn't just for hippies anymore.
On Friday evening's
MAD MONEY on CNBC, Jim Cramer noted that Lululemon has many of the same characteristics of Under Armour. In his defense, this was more figurative than literal and he said there is not a hurry to buy it because it has run a lot already. The company has many store openings and even more coming in 2008, and Cramer is looking at it for accelerated revenue and accelerated earnings growth.
LULU is an odd call because there are actually very few reliable statistics on just how many people practice yoga. Many still believe that it's a bit strange or "out there," compared to other forms of exercise or stress-relief. When you look at the
lululemon.com website you will understand why. If you have ever taken a yoga class, you will know why the stereotypes can instantly be debunked. LULU is going to be interesting to watch, mainly because of its stellar IPO performance. Cramer recently called Under Armour
"The Next Nike!" but that won't be the case for LULU. Still, there is a growth story here, and one that investors are looking at. How it will do and if it manages its own growth is where the jury is still out.
Posted Aug 6th 2007 9:50AM by Eric Buscemi (RSS feed)
Filed under: Television, Economic Data
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Jim Cramer, the overly enthusiastic host of "Mad Money," became apoplectic just prior to the market's collapse on Friday afternoon on his CNBC "Stop Trading" spot. Cramer's ranting focused on the need for the Fed to drop rates to save humanity. It came across more that the Fed needed to drop rates to save Jim Cramer's portfolio.
The reality of the situation is if the Fed had to desperately lower rates, gold would be crashing, as was the case in the late 1990s. It is interesting looking back to what everyone was calling the Goldilock's economy then, and seeing that gold was saying otherwise. Gold proved to be correct. Remember that in 1998, oil sold for only $10 a barrel.
Today, the opposite is true: gold has formed a plateau in the $600 price range and oil demand remains strong, with its price approaching $80 per barrel.
All told, despite Cramer's ranting, liquidity is getting a little tighter and the Fed should begin dropping rates in October. I wouldn't worry too much, the sky is not falling despite what Cramer may say.
Posted Aug 1st 2007 8:00PM by Jon Ogg (RSS feed)
Filed under: Products and Services, Marketing and Advertising, Chipotle Mexican Grill'A' (CMG)
On tonight's MAD MONEY on CNBC, Jim Cramer said the best company he has in the food space is Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (NYSE: CMG). He says this is a regional to national story that beat estimates and raised guidance last night. Cramer noted that the stock hasn't even seen upgrades after a 12% gain today on the better performance and Cramer said he thinks Chipotle will go up Thursday again. He interviewed Chipotle's CFO on the show.
Cramer asked about food costs being up..... costs are higher and theirs grew 100 basis points, but they have food integrity and solid contracts. The rest of the P&L statement is very efficient and they can offset some of that. Cramer's concern is on the slowness of the original buildout and then changing to rapid growth..... CFO said they are growing based on real estate availability and the quality of managers they can get. Managers are coming from inside now and they can do better now than earlier. How do they incentivize managers? Elite managers are bonused on sales growth above expectations above plan plus they get $10K per group leader that gets turned into a manager. As far as feeling like a chain....CFO said he doesn't want it to feel like a chain and they want to personalize the experience.
Chipotle is on a tear, that's a fact. Shares climbed nearly another 2% to yet another high, above $100.00 after Cramer talked this up after-hours. My only concern here is that at $3.25 billion in market cap with 640 restaurants and 110 to 120 restaurants scheduled to open in 2007, the value here is pretty high. If the company beats 2007 estimates by 20% it trades at 50-times earnings. On a per store value assuming these all come online that generates a $4,276,315.78 value per store after the store openings, and as of today's 640 restaurants in operation assuming no add-ons you would have a franchise value per store of $5,078,125.00 per store. The good news for growth and speculative investors is that in all fairness, these cautionary metrics I calculated won't come into play for some time and there is an unbelievable amount of growth this chain can generate now that it is out on its own.
Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.
Posted Jul 29th 2007 5:40PM by Sheldon Liber (RSS feed)
Filed under: Consumer Experience, Internet, Market Matters, Entrepreneurs, Sunday Funnies, Battle of the Brands
Many of you, like me, are probably reading the Motley Fools or TheStreet.com's Internet investment pages from time to time when you are not totally engulfed in Bloggingstocks.com's deeply informative blogs.
Just about everything you read these days is way over hyped including our own pages. During the Internet bubble days when everyone talked about eyeballs you almost expected to see promotional posters of a giant eyeball cloaked in the red, white, and blue, top hat and all, staring you down, over the direct plea caption "We want you!"
TheStreet.com heralded by none other than James 'Mad Money' Cramer has survived the dot-bomb era of recent past to become one of the good stock reads on the Web. Recently though I have noticed it has become less interesting, and made more difficult to read.
I must assume that in an effort to increase revenue from advertising because of its poor subscription base TheStreet.com has stretched one page stories to four and five pages. You must click on never ending 'continued' prompts at the bottom of the page. This has allowed it to increase the number of advertisements by up to 500%. It has become so obnoxious that I refrain from the torment and simply go elsewhere on many occasions.
Continue reading Sunday Funnies: Motley Fools vs. TheStreet.com
Posted Jul 18th 2007 8:00PM by Jon Ogg (RSS feed)
Filed under: After the Bell, International Markets, Analyst Reports
On tonight's MAD MONEY on CNBC, Jim Cramer continued his stock pick series for "Investing in Europe" with Germany's
Siemens AG (NYSE:
SI/ADR). He likes the conglomerate that participates in 9 sectors and considers it Europe's version of General Electric (NYSE:GE). The breadth of its businesses also lets it win projects that other companies cannot handle.
Here is the problem with this call: Siemens is a great company but its valuations look higher than most of the other large conglomerates. Its market cap is $131 billion on a currency adjusted basis. Part of its100% rise in ADR's is because of the weak dollar, but even in Euros this stock is up more than 60% over the last year. Keep in mind that these are all ADR's, and even active ADR's tend to trade fewer shares in the US than their US-based competitors.
Philips Electronics (NYSE:
PHG) was his
top EU pick on Monday, and that is another conglomerate.
His pick from Tuesday was Switzerland's
ABB Ltd. (NYSE:
ABB),
a key infrastructure play.
Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.
Posted Jul 16th 2007 7:50PM by Jon Ogg (RSS feed)
Filed under: Analyst Reports
On tonight's MAD MONEY on CNBC, Jim Cramer said his new weekly feature will be European stock picks. The markets in Europe are hot despite higher taxes and rising interest rates. The Netherlands has
Philips Electronics (NYSE:
PHG), and that is one of Cramer's top picks for the series. The company was a dead money stock a few years ago without much going on. He thinks the company is worth 20% more than it is listed at right now. It has four segments and the non-core operations and investments/stakes that could be worth another $10.00.
This call is hard to argue with, even if you take the 'anti-Cramer stance no matter what. The company still has billions of dollars worth of other public companies. It has been able to keep winning medical equipment business and its green business initiatives have been getting good press.. It has even been able to hedge its currency risk with business in the US and the weak US Dollar. Lastly, this large cap is fairly liquid and widely held for an ADR. Shares did trade down almost 2% today after earnings were released, so barring any major downgrades tomorrow the specific event risk has largely been taken out of the stock.
Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.Posted Jul 6th 2007 7:40PM by Jon Ogg (RSS feed)
Filed under: Research in Motion (RIMM)
On tonight's MAD MONEY on CNBC, Cramer said you don't need to worry about next week: You need a roadmap for six months. Growth is back, and growth stocks are the ones that will keep running.
Research In Motion Ltd. (NASDAQ:
RIMM) blew out estimates, ran $30, and then ran another $15 ... AND STILL HAS LEGS. Cramer said tech is just now starting to hit its seasonal sweet spot. You have to pay up for growth stocks, and "the next RIM is ... RIM." American Tech stuck a $300 target on R-I-M. He's sticking with his
4 Horsemen of Tech.
I do want to bring up one point about this. All of these growth stocks are on a total tear and it is obvious. What is amazing is that they hardly take a brake. In some instances it is feeling like the late 1990's pattern and in other instances you just have to understand that there are only a few major growth engines out there right now. Traders are obviously paying up for this, so how high will they keep going? If Cramer's right about the "sweet spot of the tech calendar" then these will continue. If he is just catching the top of a trend and following the momentum, then you know what will happen. It's too hard betting against momentum stocks today.
Jon Ogg is a partner at 24/7 Wall St.; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.Posted Jul 5th 2007 8:00PM by Jon Ogg (RSS feed)
Filed under: After the Bell, Television
On tonight's
MAD MONEY on CNBC, Jim Cramer hosted his first live episode in more than one week. Tonight, he noted that some of the scare and fright he heard while he was out was too much: the sub-prime blow-up, rates could hit 5.5%, a fed tightening may occur, Bear Stearns may drop, the buyout craze was over, oil prices rising, housing....and more. He said if you got scared out because of the main negatives then maybe you should not be a stock owner. He thinks
you have to own tech. He thinks listening to the bears is how you miss all the market moves. Metals, tech, aerospace, infrastructure...these are all great markets, and you shouldn't let the press scare you out.
O.K. you get the picture. Cramer spent more than a couple minutes being sarcastic. Sometimes I agree with Cramer, and sometimes I do not. But tonight felt more true than it did false. If you looked at all the negativity over the last two weeks and realized the market didn't melt down then it is hard to think it will after the news has mostly or partly passed. So he's probably keeping his
14,582 DJIA target for year-end and he's still positive on his
other top 9 picks for the year.
Posted Jun 22nd 2007 12:20PM by Jon Ogg (RSS feed)
Filed under: Analyst Reports, Wal-Mart (WMT), Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A), Johnson and Johnson (JNJ), American Express (AXP), MasterCard Inc'A' (MA), Procter and Gamble (PG)
Last night there was an interesting edition of MAD MONEY on CNBC. Jim Cramer came out and did a review of many different picks that Warren Buffett has as
Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE:
BRK.A) holdings.
Two picks that Cramer was very positive on were
Wal-Mart (NYSE:
WMT) and
American Express (NYSE:
AXP). For some conjecture here, or a mini-critic round of the master critic: these are both DJIA components, and frankly both are in a good spot. American Express is now cheaper than
MasterCard (NYSE:MA) on most metrics, and it has longer-standing and better management. The fact that American Express has the best credit customers of all major credit cards is worth more in any soft economy than any other credit card issuer. Wal-Mart is a name that was just too hard to not comment on, particularly since I have been so anti-Lee Scott up until recently. He may have saved his beck by keeping himself out of the live media, but more importantly the company has finally gone "shareholder friendly." Even better than that, it has finally figured out it's not a growth stock and acted like it even read my 10-step program to fix itself.
Jimbo had a couple picks he didn't like from Warren Buffett's Holdings. He panned
Procter & Gamble (NYSE:
PG) and
Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:
JNJ). For some conjecture here, it is easy to hate J&J right now. The company's best days have been behind it and there is nothing cheap about it. My only issue is that since so many people have gone negative, a true contrarian would lick their lips over it. But on
Procter & Gamble (NYSE:
PG), this one isn't so much of a pan. It has major depth into markets and has major brand protection now that it owns Gillette. The P/E of 21 seems high for a consumer staples stock, but this one can do well in good markets and in bad markets because it is defensive and still has growth.
If you want to pain through the entire list, Cramer actually reviewed 20 Warren Buffett Picks. You can read them in the
first 10 grouped together or the
second group of 10 Buffett reviews.
Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in any of the companies he covers.Posted Jun 15th 2007 7:20PM by Jon Ogg (RSS feed)
Filed under: Analyst Reports, Advanced Micro Dev (AMD)
On tonight's Mad Money on CNBC, Jim Cramer had his normal
'Speculation Friday' and talked about
CV Therapeutics (NASDAQ:
CVTX) as a speculative biotech and
NVIDIA (NASDAQ:
NVDA) as a speculative tech pick.
Cramer said CV is a huge battleground stock that makes small molecule drugs for respiratory diseases. Last month 36% of the float was short, but he thinks the bearish case just doesn't hold up. Cramer thinks the stock could explode into the $20's because of earnings, and could also be a takeover play. Its Ranexa drug for angina is the driver now, and it could get approved as a diabetic treatment down the road. It has a drug up for potential approval next year to detect cardiac disease.
Cramer is still anti-tech for the summer, but likes NVIDIA. He said this just hit a new-52-week high. It's one of the few winners in the PC-supply chain because of high-end graphics chips that are taking market share from
AMD's (NYSE:
AMD) ATI unit.
CV Therapeutics lost $2.95 EPS for fiscal 2007 and expected to lose $1.31 in 2008 fiscal EPS. This stock closed up over 5% today, and shares went up another 6% after-hours and after-Cramer to $12.08. Its market cap at the close was $675 million and the 52-week trading range is $6.43 to $14.67. For a history lesson, this has been public since 1997 and shares reached north of $80.00 back in 2000 to 2001. This is one we can look at from before Cramer gave it the nod, and if we trust a "sometime in 2008 time frame" then we can look at the JAN-2009 closest out of the money call options, or the $12.50 strike. These didn't trade today, but the closing levels looked to be $2.90X$3.20 with only 507 contracts in the open interest. With that 36% short interest and an almost 30% price-premium in longer dated LEAP options you know some speculating is going on in the stock.
As far as NVIDIA is concerned, there's a reason it is at a year-high: it is still taking market share. Many analysts believe that NVIDIA will have better chips than ATI for the next four to six months and maybe even longer. The stock was up big today, but investors should be careful about jumping on the bandwagon. Sure, stocks at their highs tend to go higher....until the painful turn that can't be predicted.
Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.< Previous Page | Next Page >