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Retail sales up, manufacturing down in October

Separate reports showed simultaneous improvements and declines in the U.S. economy.

First the good news. The Commerce Department reported that retail sales rose 1.4% in October, after falling 2.3% in September. It must be noted that September sales were revised downward from a previous -1.5%.

The boost came for auto sales, which rose 7.4%, after a drop of 14.4% in September. The sharp drop in September was mainly due to the termination of the "cash for clunkers" program.

Continue reading Retail sales up, manufacturing down in October

Mexico beats China in American assembly for export factories

American businesses are setting up shop in Mexico instead of China. China, which was the number one location for manufacture of goods bound for the U.S., has fallen into third place. Mexico is now number one, followed by India.

Several factors have converged to make Mexico an attractive place for manufacture. Daniel Silva of the Mission Economic Development Authority said: "Compared to China, Mexico offers better access to North American markets with a shorter, faster and cheaper transportation route to move products and supplies by truck, rather than over thousands of miles by ship, rail and truck combined."

Continue reading Mexico beats China in American assembly for export factories

Reason #6: Excess capacity

Reason #6 the economy won't recover in 2010Excess capacity is everywhere -- we have more than enough people, factories, stores, and so on to meet current demand.

Want to buy an indoor mall? You can get one in North Myrtle Beach for $3.3 million -- less than the previous value of many homes in that area.

Continue reading Reason #6: Excess capacity

Unemployment up in 23 states, 15 set records

The unemployment rate increased in 23 states in September, with 43 reporting job losses for the month (though not at an accelerating rate). This does signal that we're (hopefully) in the early stages of an economic recovery ... though this can also mean that some job seekers have just given up (and are no longer counted).

Layoffs have slowed down a bit, but companies aren't crazy about taking on new bodies. So far, 600,000 people have dropped out of the hunt. Unemployment now sits at 9.8%.

Continue reading Unemployment up in 23 states, 15 set records

Durable goods numbers may bode well for some stocks (SHLD, HD, AAPL)

Durable goods are products that should last more than 3 years. That usually includes things like appliances, furnishings, and heavy equipment. The Commerce Department tracks this data and the number of orders for these things popped up an extra 4.9% in July, which was a nice surprise.

Why do I care whether North Americans are buying a new fridge? This is actually a metric you should watch for insight into potential corporate profits. If durable goods (which tend to cost a lot) are being purchased at an increasing rate, it bodes well for the companies that produce and sell those products.

Continue reading Durable goods numbers may bode well for some stocks (SHLD, HD, AAPL)

Construction spending rose in June, but just barely

Construction spending rose 0.3% in June. This is nothing to write home about. In a word, construction spending is practically flat.

The true state of affairs is that construction spending, at $965.7 billion, is down 10.2% from last year. Now that nothing to sneeze at but it is way off from our peak spending.

The good news is that new and existing home sales rose in June by the largest amount in eight years. But again, keep in mind that we are coming off very low numbers.

Continue reading Construction spending rose in June, but just barely

15 states now have more than 10% unemployment

Unemployment continues to riseAccording to a report today from the Labor Department, 15 states now have unemployment rates above 10%.

The most recent states to see unemployment above 10% are the southern states of Georgia and Alabama. The worst hit state remains Michigan, where the collapse of America's auto industry is having its biggest impact on jobs. Unemployment in Michigan is now sitting at 15.2%.

Continue reading 15 states now have more than 10% unemployment

Under the radar: German factory orders rise most in two years in May

Under the radar: Some trends are obvious enough and visible to all investors. Others are more-subtle, but are just as potent, and these often slip 'under the radar.'

Case in point:
German manufacturing orders, which jumped the most in almost two years in May -- rising 4.4%, Bloomberg News reported Tuesday. That's the indicator's largest increase since June 2007, and nine times the Bloomberg News consensus estimate.

Continue reading Under the radar: German factory orders rise most in two years in May

The week in preview: A few chances for pre-holiday fireworks

Things will be pretty quiet again on the earnings front during this holiday-shortened week, so not much chance of fireworks there.

The one report analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters seem to have the highest hopes for is that from Apollo Group Inc. (NASDAQ: APOL), as people look to education to better position themselves to survive the economic slump. For its fiscal third quarter, during which a new co-CEO was named, the Phoenix, Ariz.-based educational services provider is expected to report a profit of $1.12 per share, which is 24.1% higher than a year ago. Revenue is expected to be 24.3% higher to $1.0 billion. The full-year forecast is currently for $3.97 per share (+28.5%) on sales of $3.9 billion (+24.4%). Earnings have topped expectations in the past four quarters, by as much as 13 cents per share. The long-term EPS growth forecast is 15.9%, which is double the industry average, and the forward PE ratio estimate is 15.0. The First Call consensus recommendation remains to buy APOL; InvestorPlace calls it a stock you can trust. At $68.50, shares are down 10.6% since the beginning of the year, but they peeked above the 100-day moving average at the end of this week for the first time since March.

Continue reading The week in preview: A few chances for pre-holiday fireworks

Kodak pulls Kodachrome in a blow to sentimentality

Kodak's announcement today is evidence that sentimentality is dead in 21st century business.

The film world has, after all, been moping since Polaroid stopped producing its iconic instant camera film in early 2008 (take heart, Polaroid fans, "The Impossible Project" is working to reinvent instant film in an old Polaroid factory in the Netherlands). But today Eastman Kodak (NYSE: EK) said it was halting production of the complex-yet-storied Kodachrome film, immediately. Not only does the product make up less than 1% of its worldwide still-picture film sales; it's extraordinarily expensive to produce.

Continue reading Kodak pulls Kodachrome in a blow to sentimentality

The week in preview: High hopes for First Solar, Humana, DreamWorks and more

As the quarterly reports continue to roll out and the market continues to rally, optimism seem to be rising. Analysts certainly have high hopes for some companies reporting earnings this week.

Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters expect First Solar Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR) to report first-quarter earnings of $1.51 per share, which is 62.3% higher than a year ago. Revenue for the quarter is expected to be 105.6% higher, or $404.9 million. First Solar earnings have topped expectations in the past five quarters, by as much as 47.3%. The long-term EPS growth forecast is 40.6% and the forward PE ratio estimate is 23.0. In the previous quarter, Tempe, Ariz.-based First Solar reported having more cash on hand than debt. The First Call consensus recommendation is to buy FSLR; CNBC recently included it as a stock pick. First Solar has announced that it will build new solar power plants in Nevada and Germany. Its share price has risen 6.9% since the beginning of the year to $147.46.

Continue reading The week in preview: High hopes for First Solar, Humana, DreamWorks and more

3M misses Wall Street's mark -- sell the stock?

3M (NYSE: MMM) had a not-that-great first quarter. The declines were significant and ugly. First, net sales plunged over 20%. Second, net income on an adjusted basis likewise spiraled out of control, declining over 40% to $0.81 per share. And no, that didn't meet expectations. Wall Street was looking for $0.86 per share. Sorry, gang.

You've got the dollar and the global recession to blame. Currency translations affected sales, and declines in economic activity didn't help much, either. Many people look to 3M as a staunch dividend play. As such, cash flow is important. Unfortunately, the statement of cash flows this quarter was hard to read. Net cash from operations decreased 30%, and free cash flow lost 35% of its value when compared to the year-ago period. Thankfully, there was enough free cash to cover the dividend.

Continue reading 3M misses Wall Street's mark -- sell the stock?

Out with tax shelters, in with investment in productive capacity

Each economic era has incidents that characterize the age, and the one just passed, the U.S.'s decade of descent, is no different.

Investors would no doubt cite the financial crisis, bad subprime loans, perverse incentives for bank executives, large leverage, speculative housing investments, Bernard Madoff's alleged investment fraud, Enron, and WorldCom, among others, as topping the decade's major errors and scandals, and there would be no argument here.

On to the above list, yours truly will add two data points, two observations -- certainly not as well known -- but perhaps just as indicative.

Continue reading Out with tax shelters, in with investment in productive capacity

Markets sink, unemployment soars -- What do I do next?

If you are sitting in your office or at home thinking: "What am I going to do next? The economy is getting worse by the day," you are not alone. For the first time in a generation real fear has gripped the nation. This was reflected in the action of the markets since the beginning of the month.

Global markets are at multiyear lows, as is the U.S. Dow Jones Industrial average. The S&P index sank below the psychological 800 level.

This past week, attention was focused on central and eastern Europe, where the recession is gaining momentum on the downside. Now add to this mix the banking crisis. Investors are fearing a lack of solvency among the big international banks. Credit default swaps are rising, with Korea hitting a three-month high. Then you have the crisis in Japan, where GDP is falling by an annualized rate of 12.7% in the past three months.

Continue reading Markets sink, unemployment soars -- What do I do next?

Will the U.S. economy's focus shift from consumption to production?

It's an axiom of business theory that change is continual in market economies, but as economist David H. Wang points out, there's change that corporations and citizens can prepare for, and then there's change that few expect.

The latter is, by its nature, Wang says, more disruptive - - driving companies out of business, compelling triage-like changes in business models of others, while also triggering wholesale changes to family budgets, career paths, and students' educational objectives.

Wang groups change in three categories: cyclical (as in the business cycle), technological (such as the Internet, car, telephone, electrification, railroad etc.), and structural (globalization, Cold War, Marshall Plan, Bolshevik Revolution, the Enlightenment, Protestant Reformation, etc).

Continue reading Will the U.S. economy's focus shift from consumption to production?

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Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA-14.2810,318.16
NASDAQ-10.782,146.04
S&P 500-3.521,091.38

Last updated: November 22, 2009: 02:33 PM

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