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Week in Preview: Unemployment Rate, Retail and Auto Sales

earnings expectationsAlthough the U.S. economy has added jobs in recent months, the unemployment rate remains uncomfortably high at 9.8%. The rate for December is due out on Friday and is expected to drop to 9.7%. However, no one seems to expect significant improvement until well into the new year.

Other economic data on this week's schedule include:

Continue reading Week in Preview: Unemployment Rate, Retail and Auto Sales

Pre-Market Outlook: U.S. Futures Higher on Strong China Production Data

U.S. stock index futures are higher Wednesday, after better-than-expected factory production data from China. Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 119 points to 11,115.00, while S&P 500 futures rose 13.80 points to 1,193.40. Nasdaq 100 futures advanced 21.75 points to 2,138.75.

U.S. stock markets closed lower yesterday, with the blue-chip Dow index losing 46.47 points or 0.42%.

The ADP employment survey for November was due at about 8:15 a.m. ET. However, data on Q3 productivity will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET. The ISM manufacturing data for November will be released at 10 a.m. ET.

Continue reading Pre-Market Outlook: U.S. Futures Higher on Strong China Production Data

Philly Fed Survey Declines for Second-Straight Month

Federal ReserveLittle bit of bad news coming out of Philadelphia, and it has nothing to do with Eagles' quarterback Kevin Kolb's concussion. The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia announced that its manufacturing index checked in at -0.7, which is better than August's reading of -7.7. Unfortunately, the reading was short of expectations for a reading of 0.0.

According to the Philly Fed, "The survey's broad indicators of future activity continue to suggest that the region's manufacturing executives expect growth in business over the next six months, but optimism remains below levels earlier in the year." This is not good news for an economy that many think is on the road to recovery.

Continue reading Philly Fed Survey Declines for Second-Straight Month

The Week in Preview: Employment, Housing, Manufacturing, Earnings Expectations

earnings expectationsInvestors nervous about the possibly stalled economic recovery -- or worse, the beginning of the latter phase of a double-dip recession -- were not pleased with last week's housing numbers. Things were perhaps ameliorated somewhat by durable goods order numbers and a revised GDP that weren't as bad as expected, but that didn't stop the Dow from dipping below 10,000 later in the week, before fighting its way back above the benchmark to end the week, thanks largely to Fed chair Bernanke's comments on Friday.

Though the end of August is usually quiet, this week lots more economic data are due out, including more housing numbers: The Case-Shiller Home Price Index for June on Tuesday, construction spending numbers for July on Wednesday, and NAR's pending home sales for July on Thursday. There's not expected to be much to get excited about in these numbers.

Continue reading The Week in Preview: Employment, Housing, Manufacturing, Earnings Expectations

Manufacturing Down for a Third Straight Month

The Institute for Supply Management reported that its index fell to 55.5 in July, down from 56.2 in June. 74 analysts polled by Reuters had estimated the number to be 54.2.

New orders also fell to 53.5 in July, down from 58.5 in June. Referring to the sharp drop, Pierre Ellis of Decision Economics said: "Even though the decline in the headline number is smaller than expected, the composition shows weakness, particularly in new orders, which is bad news."

Continue reading Manufacturing Down for a Third Straight Month

Merck to Close Eight Plants

Merck MRK logoThursday morning, Merck & Co. (MRK) announced that it would shut down eight manufacturing plants and eight research sites around the world, along with consolidating some of its offices.

Merck notes that these moves are part of the ongoing consolidation triggered by the acquisition of Schering-Plough last November. The acquisition made Merck the second-biggest pharmaceutical firm in the world. That said, the company is going to eliminate roughly 15% of its workforce (which comes out to 16,000 jobs) in order to save roughly $3.5 billion a year.

Continue reading Merck to Close Eight Plants

Ray of Light: Factory, Construction Stats Confirm Ongoing Expansion

Tuesday's positive data point (actually two), came from the heart of the U.S. economy: the factory sector's recover continued in May, and construction spending unexpectedly rose in April.

Of the two, the market's bulls will likely cheer the Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing index more: it came in at 59.7, a slight dip from April's feverish pace of 60.4, but still above the Bloomberg News consensus estimate of 59.5. Readings over 50 indicate an expansion.

Continue reading Ray of Light: Factory, Construction Stats Confirm Ongoing Expansion

Five Days Left to Deeply Consider Manufacturing and Energy Stocks

On April 26, the long anticipated Senate climate bill is slated for its debut. Climate change talking points aside, how powerful a piece of legislation will this bill turn out to be for investors, and what could be its effects on manufacturing, retail and energy stocks?

For the sake of discussion, let's just assume that the bill will pass and become law. The first thing to understand is that it's not much more than an act of taxation. That new tax will be levied against businesses large and small via carbon offsets. They'll be showing up on balance sheets everywhere. Granted, we all know that businesses hand their tax bills down line to the consumers, but for large corporations and conglomerates, it's certain that the documentation and accounting will be more than a little distracting. Of course some business giants will be able to simply buy their way out from under the mess.

Continue reading Five Days Left to Deeply Consider Manufacturing and Energy Stocks

Tell-tale Stat: U.S. Factory Output Jumped In March

The compelling stat for investors in March's industrial production data released Thursday by the U.S. Federal Reserve? Without question, the factory output component of the index, which jumped an impressive 0.9%.

The top-line industrial production statistic indicated just a 0.1% rise in March -- to be sure, one that confirmed a nearly year-long expansion in industrial production -- but hardly a large move. The March rise was also well below the estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News, which forecast an 0.8% rise.

Continue reading Tell-tale Stat: U.S. Factory Output Jumped In March

When Will NBER Officially Declare End to U.S. Recession?

The calculation here is that the National Bureau of Economic Research, the nation's widely-recognized arbiter concerning when recessions and expansions begin/end, will probably announce an end to the recession soon.

The NBER is careful to point out that its committee emphasizes economy-wide measures of economic activity when evaluating the economic cycle, and it argues that domestic production and employment are the primary measures of economic activity.

Continue reading When Will NBER Officially Declare End to U.S. Recession?

U.S. Manufacturing Experiences Largest Gain Since 2004

Manufacturing expanded in March at the fastest pace since 2004. The Supply Management's factory index rose to 59.6. This exceed forecasts by Bloomberg News survey of 77 economists. Readings above 50 indicate expansion.

"Manufacturing is on a tear" said Chris Rupkey of bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi. "Manufacturing driven growth and export driven growth are getting us out of the recession and turning the recovery into a more sustainable one. As production increases, it means job gains are going to spread."

Continue reading U.S. Manufacturing Experiences Largest Gain Since 2004

Is It Time to Invest in China?

Things are heating up quite nicely in the Chinese economy, and if news sources can be believed, the Chinese financial wizards seem to have things fairly well in hand. By face-value reckoning, it appears to be a good time to shift some investment capital towards China. But be warned, things can change on a moment's notice.

Industrial output is picking up in China. The government there reports better-than-expected export numbers. Banks are being pressured to cut back on lending because things have gotten so hot that inflation is now an approaching issue. The monetary mood of the general population is quickly shifting from a liquidity stance to an equity mode.

Continue reading Is It Time to Invest in China?

Oil Lurches Toward $80, and Beyond ...

Oil's latest lurch higher -- it rose $1.61 to $78.94 per barrel Thursday -- has an upside and a downside.

The upside? Traders are bidding-up oil amid increasing signs that the U.S. economic recovery is strengthening. You read correctly: a strengthening U.S. economy. In particular, manufacturing, so hard hit by the 2007-2009 recession, is showing signs of not only adding employees in the sector, but to also contributing substantially to U.S. GDP growth. Second, exports continue to trend higher. If each trend continues, the U.S. economy will likely grow more than 3% this year, and job growth will resume.

Continue reading Oil Lurches Toward $80, and Beyond ...

Keeping an Eye on China's U.S. Investments, Manufacturing

China Investment Corp. (CIC), a sovereign wealth fund responsible for managing China's foreign exchange reserves, has disclosed to the SEC that its holdings in major U.S. companies now total $9.6 billion. According to reports, the fund totals nearly $2.5 trillion. Using that capital, and acting as a passive investor, CIC is buying minority positions in major companies. The stakes that CIC holds in major U.S. corporations represent small pieces by percentage, but the total investment to date is worthy of note.

Manufacturing.net has reported that CIC has disclosed the following: "... small holdings in dozens of companies including, $353.8 million in Visa Inc., $6.3 million in Apple Inc., $9 million in Coca-Cola Co. and $1.4 million in Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co. It also listed a $1.7 billion stake in Morgan Stanley." It should be noted that these are all minority holdings in publicly traded companies. Beijing is intentionally avoiding investments that might be deemed politically sensitive.

Continue reading Keeping an Eye on China's U.S. Investments, Manufacturing

Germany, Linchpin of The Eurozone, Falters

Germany's industrial production has led the rebound in Europe. That was until the last quarter of 2009. In December, Germany's industrial production dropped 2.6% after rising 0.7% in November.

Germany supposedly turned the corner in the second quarter of 2009. But Alexander Koch, economist for Unicredit in Munich said: "The most vibrant part of the rebound" in industry was apparently over. One reason is that Germany ended subsidies to its auto industry recently.

Continue reading Germany, Linchpin of The Eurozone, Falters

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DJIA-89.2312,801.23
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Last updated: February 12, 2012: 12:43 AM

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