I recently took a broad, comprehensive look at companies with market caps over $1 billion. My review included analyzing future cash flow, price-to-sales ratios, earnings forecasts and stock appreciation over the last five years.
Based on these measures, I've identified fifteen large cap companies that I think are the most overvalued in terms of their current stock prices. Below is the list, including links for more detailed analysis:
JC Penney (NYSE:JCP). The stock of this iconic American discounter has nearly doubled in the past two years. But sales remain mediocre and lately the stock has started to waffle.
Schlumberger Limited (NYSE:SLB). Its stock is up 200% over the past five years while customer ExxonMobil Corporation (NYSE: XOM) is up only 100%. It has done very well, but it is in a cyclical industry that is pegged to oil prices and it' run may not last forever.
Merck & Co (NYSE:MRK). This once down-trodden name now trades near its 52-week high. But the drugs that represent 50% of its revenues go "off patent" soon. And Merck still faces major Vioxx liabilities.
AT&T (NYSE:T). This stock is at a four-year high at the same time that the competitive threat from cable only grows more fierce. Consumers are getting used to the idea of buying phone service from their cable companies and suddenly VoIP isn't so scary anymore. That spells trouble for AT&T.