Now that the Dow has fallen 10% from its October 2007 peak of 14,164 to 12,743 -- i.e. now that it officially qualifies as a correction, it's a good time to summarize the investment landscape, fundamental and technically. Although numerous fundamentals (high energy prices, subprime mortgage defaults and subprime-asset losses, housing sector slump, slowing U.S. consumer spending) suggest U.S. economic growth will slow up ahead, and hence that more selling is ahead for the Dow, that, in fact, may not be the case.
If limited to roughly 10%, the Dow's decline constitutes solely a correction. Keep in mind also that the Dow is a lead indicator that always points to economic conditions 6-9 months ahead. Hence, investors, if they believe that measures being taken are addressing important concerns, could conclude that economic conditions will improve and hence send the Dow rising very soon.

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Let's look at some numbers. The Dow Jones Industrial Average started the year at 12,459 and then set a record breaking slam through the 14,000 barrier. At that point it was up about 12.3%. Then we had a dip from 14,000 to 13,211. At which point the DJIA suffered one of its worse weeks in a year. The DJIA hit bottom on July 31 at 13,211 (still up 6% for the year) the DJIA is now up to 13,600. (up 9.1% for the year). Just mid-way through today the DJIA gained 127 point going from 13,504 to 13,641. That means that today the market rose from up 8.3% to up 9.4% for the year. We are well on our way to a comeback.


