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Jim Stack: Reasons to Stay in the 'Bullish Camp'

Steven Halpern — Tue, 11 May 2010 10:30:00 EST

Filed under: Major Movement, Newsletters, S and P 500, DJIA

"Financial uncertainty creates nervous investors. And high levels of nervousness create overreaction or even outright panic," says Jim Stack. Incidentally, the market historian and timer who beginning in 2007 accurately warned against the unwinding of a derivatives-based housing bubble.

The money manager and editor of InvesTech Market Analyst also turned bullish just prior to the market lows in March 2009. And despite the recent market uncertainty, he continues to remain bullish.

He explains, "A lot of the most recent volatility was trader-induced panic. We think it was a response to perceived goblins rather than credible smoke, let alone fire. What I care about is whether or not the blocks are still in place for a sustainable bull market and safe profits.

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Jim Stack: Reasons to Stay in the 'Bullish Camp' originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 11 May 2010 10:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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MarketWatch technician raises 'bullish flag'

Steven Halpern — Mon, 20 Jul 2009 11:00:00 EST

Filed under: Forecasts, Newsletters, S and P 500, DJIA, Stocks to Buy

"The technical backdrop has taken a distinctly bullish turn," says Michael Ashbaugh in MarketWatch's The Technical Indicator. Here, he looks at the market averages and a trio of stock ideas.

"Perhaps most obviously, the S&P has staged a 10-to-1 rally, and a 28-to-1 spike, from its 200-day moving average. And by any measure, this raises a bullish technical flag.

"With a gravity-defying rally, the S&P extended its gains, clearing resistance at 930 last Thursday. From current levels, significant resistance holds at the 2009 closing high of 946 while initial support rests at 930.

"Meanwhile, the Dow's near-term view is similar. With this week's rally, it's staged a 'V'-shaped reversal, breaking to one-month highs. Looking ahead, significant resistance holds at 8,799 - matching the 2009 closing high - while support rests at 8,580, matching the breakout point.

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MarketWatch technician raises 'bullish flag' originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 20 Jul 2009 11:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Elliott wave still rising: A technical outlook

Steven Halpern — Fri, 12 Jun 2009 10:00:00 EST

Filed under: Forecasts, S and P 500, DJIA, Recession, Financial Crisis

Despite a strongly bearish long-term outlook, technicians Stephen Hochberg and Robert Prechter continue to see near-term upside for the market.

In The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, a specialty service focused on a form of technical analyst known as Elliott wave theory, they explain, "Optimism is definitely on the increase, but it is not yet as the exteme that typically accompanies the end of a Primary degree rally.

"So notwithstanding near-term gyrations, the Dow should rise to the initial target, which remains in the 9,000 to 10,000 range.

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Elliott wave still rising: A technical outlook originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 12 Jun 2009 10:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Serious Money: Outlook improving (AEO, BAC, C, & F)

Sheldon Liber — Wed, 15 Apr 2009 17:00:00 EST

Filed under: Major Movement, Forecasts, Other Issues, Ford Motor (F), Citigroup Inc. (C), Bank of America (BAC), Options, Serious Money, American Eagle Outfitters (AEO)

Spring has arrived and the dark clouds over the market are giving way to "patchy sunshine". Some of the market bears are going into hibernation, at least for now.

Never mind what anyone is saying, just look at their actions.

What has me pontificating today is not so much the rise in stock prices since my post from last month titled Is the stock market spring loaded? Could it move 3,000 points higher now? but my observations in the options futures that I have been trading.

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Serious Money: Outlook improving (AEO, BAC, C, & F) originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 15 Apr 2009 17:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Jim Stack: Market historian calls 'imminent' bottom

Steven Halpern — Wed, 29 Oct 2008 14:30:00 EST

Filed under: Major Movement, Newsletters, S and P 500, DJIA, Housing, Recession, Financial Crisis

Written before yesterday's sharp rise, stock market historian and advisor Jim Stack had forecast an "imminent bottom" for the market. A long-term timer, he is not looking for quick pops and drops; rather, the "safety-first" money manager focuses on slowing positioning his portfolio for long-term, secular trends.

Indeed, in his InvesTech Market Analyst he was among the few to accurately forecast the current crisis; over the prior year and a half, he predicated both the bust of the housing bubble and the derivatives-based meltdown that would result.

After maintaining a defensive, cash-heavy portfolio during the market's downturn, he is now becoming more optimistic, noting, "All of our bearish extremes readings that precede the best stock buy opportunities are now in place."

Stack explains, "How can we put this bear market in historical perspective? No doubt about it, this bear market is a whopper - both in size and severity.

"With a 42.5% loss in the S&P 500 Index, it is rapidly closing in on the big bear markets of 1973-74 and 2000-02. In fact, no bear market in the past 70 years has declined over 50%.

"In severity, this bear has unfolded much faster than past bear markets, wiping out $6.7 trillion in stock values in barely 12 months - equivalent to over 90% of the loss in the 2000-02 bear market in two-fifths of the time

"In measuring impact on investors' portfolios, this bear has 'repossessed' more than 84% of the prior 5-year bull market gains! Both the DJIA and S&P 500 Index are back to price levels seen over 10 years ago in 1998.

"Why has the stock market decline turned so precipitous in the last few weeks? In bigger bear markets, investors always end up throwing out the baby with the bath water.

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Jim Stack: Market historian calls 'imminent' bottom originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 29 Oct 2008 14:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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