The stock market, the gold market. Both of these have a way of moving well before major economic events are evident. Research suggests the stock market is ahead of the economy by about six months. It moves in anticipation of events rather than actual events. The gold market has its own drummer and moves for its own reasons, in its own time. Stocks and gold are moving now, and they suggest a change in the economy.

First, the stock market continues to gain ground, climbing what is commonly referred to as the "wall of worry." In other words, there's lots to be worried about, but stocks go up anyway. That's because investors are beginning to see some light at the end of the tunnel. And it isn't a train. This week, the official keepers of recession data, the National Bureau of Economic Research, announced the recession ended in June of 2009. Aren't you sorry you missed it?

Today's weaker than expected job report supposedly contributed to its 250 point drubbing. But the simple reality is that nobody knows why the market went down.

If the market had gone up today, so-called analysts would have been available to explain that the market rose because weak job market results meant that the Fed was more likely to lower interest rates than it otherwise might have been.

After all, some analyst could have argued, the risks of not cutting interest rates -- in the form of a weaker economy -- far outweigh the inflationary risks. In fact, those analysts might argue, a decelerating job market means that there is a bigger risk of deflation. And what better way to counter that risk than to cut rates?

So why didn't the market rally today? Nobody who knows the answer is talking to the media. It's safe to say that the wisdom of those who comment to the press on market movements is worth exactly what you paid for it -- nothing.

Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter.

Two contrarian signs that a market bottom is approaching have raised their heads. The first is the always somber Marc Faber, the famed proprietor of the Gloom, Boom & Doom Report, who said late last week that the current down-drift in stocks is the beginning of a global bear market.

The second is the increasing chatter that the massive U.S. budget and trade deficits are going to come back to haunt the U.S. economy.

Mr. Faber's bearish pronouncements and the general call by economists and other pundits saying this is the time that the trade deficit is going to crush the U.S. economy almost always coincides with a bottom of the US market.

For the most part, virtually every indicator suggests the U.S. market is approaching a bottom. However, a good contrarian indicator, the AAII Index that measures individual investor sentiment, has stayed stubbornly high. Actually, bullish sentiment has been increasing during this market's decline.

Today the stock market is getting slammed, with the Dow down over 360 points. In my view, that's because many of the bad things that investors have been worrying about for years are all happening at the same time:

• Spiking oil prices -- a barrel of crude oil was up $1.12 at $77.
• Tanking housing market. Disappointing results from home builders including Pulte Homes Inc. (NYSE: PHM) and D.R. Horton Inc. (NYSE: DHI) -- squeezed by a sluggish environment from home sales and continued defaults in subprime loans -- weighed heavily on the market.
• Drying up of private equity financing -- as I posted earlier today.

Over the last few weeks, these worries have been masked by an onslaught of big mergers. But the mergers aren't happening today. Moreover, if the credit markets decide to turn their back on future deals, the only thing to stop the market from freefalling would be big companies exceeding earnings expectations.

What should you do? Probably nothing if you're in it for the long term, eventually all the bad news will come out and there will be a buying opportunity. But not yet.

Peter Cohan is president of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter. He has no financial interest in the securities mentioned in this post.