Where on earth can you buy things on sale for less than bargain prices?

Imagine that you were shopping for a nice shirt, or watch, or bicycle and you have been tracking the prices all year (or ten) and the thing finally goes on sale. You drive to the store and while you are in transit, unknown to you, the store manager puts a half price sticker on the item. You would be overjoyed with glee! To buy something at half the price you already thought was a bargain -- that would be amazing!

The fact is that this year the stock market has provided that opportunity. This year for the first time in most of our lives, you were able to do that to a degree that we have not witnessed before and have only read about.

The nations high unemployment rate impacted consumer confidence again in July, the second straight month that people's faith in the economy has wavered.

The Conference Board's index that measures consumer confidence dipped to 46.6, down from June's measure of 49.3. The good news is that we are well above the low we hit back in February at 25.3.

A big factor influencing confidence these days is the nation's unemployment rate, which is expected to rise through 10% in the not too distant future, with 15 states already reporting 10% or greater unemployment.

For the first time since early January, the DOW broke through the psychological 9,000 mark in today's trading.

It has been a strong day for the market, with the DOW currently sitting at 9,080, a little off its daily high of 9,090.50.

This post was written by Minyanville Executive Editor Keving Depew.

Quick: the next 700 points on the S&P 500; up or down?

I remember when that question required some thought, around 1200 or so. Regardless, it is interesting to me as someone who also manages some longer-term investment accounts (with time frames exceeding 10 years) that people seem to be more concerned with the direction of the next 100 points than the next 700.

I have long been a big believer in the idea that the daily fluctuations in the stock market can't be easily explained.

That doesn't stop people from making sage sounding comments about how the market fell 486 points today due to bad economic statistics -- like the ones we had today on contraction in service sector employment. But by that same logic, the market should have tumbled yesterday as well, thanks to bad retail sales, employment and auto sales numbers on which I posted -- and yet the Dow rose 306 points yesterday.

This got me to thinking about a possible explanation. There's nothing so fun as a good conspiracy theory. What if the Treasury was using its money to help prop up the market in the days preceding the election? My mind then leapt to a possible rationale: Perhaps it reasoned that since the collapse in the markets had helped Obama, a rise in stock prices would work to the advantage of McCain. Aha! It would certainly have looked better for the current administration if it could have been succeeded by another Republican in the Oval Office. If that was the intent, it didn't work too well.

Of course, just as there is no evidence that economic statistics -- or the election -- have anything to do with the market moving one way or the other, so it is difficult for me to find any evidence that the Treasury was funneling cash into the markets to prop it up. Oh well.

In all seriousness, I believe there is a fundamental lack of transparency if there is no credible basis on which to explain why the market moves every day. If the big buyers and sellers of stocks publicly disclosed their moves, then it might be feasible to explain them.

That does not seem to be on the horizon, though. So people will continue making their illogical explanations for those daily price swings.

Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter.

Commenting on the expected carnage in the financial markets today, The New York Times notes that "Now, the risk for the financial firms is that investors will respond by trying to do exactly what they are trying to do - minimize their risk. If enough investors do that and choose to sell, stocks could plummet in markets worldwide, thus increasing the risks rather than easing them."

In reality, it's exactly the opposite. The lower the stock market drops, the lower the risk is. A stock market decline could trigger problems for over-leveraged financial companies dependent upon their credit ratings for their access to capital but, for mom and pop investors, an opportunity to buy stocks at lower prices is good.

In the long run, companies are worth whatever they're worth. Paying 50 cents for an asset is less risky than paying $1, and long-term minded investors should look forward to days like these. There may be other factors that are increasing risk for investors, just as excessive leverage at so many banks has, but lower prices certainly don't qualify as a risk.

Reuters writes, "Projections for S&P 500 companies' fourth-quarter earnings swung to a 6.1 percent drop on Monday from an 11.5 percent rise on October 1, in the biggest quarterly move since Reuters Estimates started compiling analysts' forecasts in 1999." Tech company earnings are still expected to rise 25%, but that is the extent of the good news.

The impact on the stock markets could be significant. Investors are used to earnings surprises that run on the sunny side.

The S&P 500 is up only 18% since the beginning of 1999. This is due, to some extent, to the huge drop the index suffered in 2002. It points to a stock market that has not performed as well as earnings have. It is, is essence, more fragile than the corporate results which have driven it.

The index sits just below 1,500 and has taken a big run-up since mid-2006. It is not hard to believe that a contraction of earnings growth would take it down 20%, which is about where it was 18 months ago. If the economy has entered a recession, investors should be happy if it does not go lower.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) says that the odds of a recession in the U.S. have moved from 30% to a range of 40% to 45%. But economists at the investment bank "now expect the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee to cut interest rates to 3% by mid-2008, down from its earlier forecast of 4%," according to MarketWatch.

Over at the U.S. Conference of Mayors things look a little different. They commissioned a study by Global Insight Inc., which suggested that the value of U.S. housing will fall $1.2 trillion next year, and that foreclosures could hit 1.4 million. But "Global Insight predicted that the economy would grow at a 1.9% rate in 2008," writes The Wall Street Journal. The firm even expects modest job growth.

Between the two opinions there appears to be little beyond smoke and confusion. As the year wears on and the stock market falls, the number of views about the 2008 economy grows, with little consensus.

That leaves investors to ponder the most important factor in most of the studies. Will housing problems sink the rest of the economy, or can the damage be isolated to those consumers who have problems directly related to their homes?

No one can answer that. No matter who issues them, the opinions are only a guess.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

Barron's takes a look at what could be a bad omen for the future of the stock market (subscription required), at least in the short-term: "Even after a recent drop, margin debt remains within spitting distance of the all-time high it hit in July, and 43% higher than it was a year ago. At a current level of 2.4% of the market's adjusted market cap, margin debt is 3.4 times its 62-year average.

Why worry? For starters, high margin debt could result in widespread margin calls in the wake of rapid market decline, leading to a domino effect prolonging the market decline. For evidence of this phenomenon, please see The Great Crash of 1929.

But high margin levels are also a very bearish contrarian indicator. They show that many investors are maxed out -- even if they wanted to, they simply couldn't buy more stock -- they're already borrowing at near-record levels to do just that! New money is often a prerequisite for a bull market, and already-high margin levels could make it hard for new money to come in. The bullishness of the investment community is a very bearish indicator for contrarian analysts.

Samsung Electronics (LSE: SMSN) is a big name in the consumer electronics field these days. Personally, I use a Samsung cellphone, color laser printer, LCD computer monitor and more. In many cases, Samsung products have entered my home due to good pricing, stylish quality and excellent craftsmanship. Those amenities are apparently not enough to keep large profits flowing into South Korea's largest company (by revenue).

Samsung continues to be the world's largest seller of flat-panel screens (computer monitors and flat-panel televisions) and is a staple in the cellphone world, serving virtually every global market that exists along with almost every wireless carrier in established wireless markets. But, even with that, the company's share price is down 10% this year, and the company is expected to report its fourth straight quarter of declining profit. What's happened?

Margins have plummeted in many areas where it leads, such as flat-panel technology and computer components (Samsung makes more computer RAM memory than any other company). The company has been slow to create market-leading awareness in higher-margin businesses (like color laser printers), and its recent quarterly results show this. Are customers increasingly being more satisfied with Samsung's products, thereby waiting on upgrading and considering price as the main factor when they do? Perhaps.

Consumers in emerging markets have these same concerns as well (especially price), so where are all these new high-margin product segments at, then? That's the magic 8-ball question. I'll say this: I've owned a high-end Samsung cellphone since January of this year and don't plan on upgrading it for a long time. Why? Well, it works great and has every conceivable feature I could ever need in a cellphone. Samsung doesn't want to hear that, though. In other words, it may be making many products so good that customers have a stagnating need to buy the latest and greatest.

Mr. Bernanke's first move as Fed Chairman will be an historic one. Not only did he drop the Fed Funds rate by 50 bps, but he did so in the face of gold breaking out in a major way. As the U.S. stock market was booming on the Fed's decision, gold also rallied, hitting $723 in yesterday's trading, up from $650 in mid August. The metal has also broken through its major resistance level at $690.

While gold has been going through a major bull market this entire decade, one would expect inflation to be going higher and bond prices crashing, similar to the 1970s. But that has not been the case. While there was some inflation as the economic expansion aged, it was by no means hyper-inflationary.

Are gold and equity prices now correlated? It sound crazy, but that is the way they are trading now.

One warning. Gold is an eerily correct commodity; do not dismiss its ascent lightly. While equities will continue to rally for a while, keep an eye on gold. It is telling us there is plenty of cash around the world. And history tells us when there is plenty of cash around the world, people will do some unwise things with it.

The market rallied strongly on the Fed's announcement today and shot up about 2.5%. The Fed, chaired by Bernanke, cut rates by one half point surprising Wall Street which only expected a quarter point cut.

To excerpt the Feds announcement: "Economic growth was moderate during the first half of the year, but the tightening of credit conditions has the potential to intensify the housing correction and to restrain economic growth more generally. Today's action is intended to help forestall some of the adverse effects on the broader economy that might otherwise arise from the disruptions in financial markets and to promote moderate growth over time."

The NYSE had volume of 3.6 billion shares with 3,013 shares advancing while 345 declined for a gain of 301.28 points to close at 9,909.03. On the NASDAQ, 2.1 billion shares traded, 2,359 advanced and 657 declined for a gain of 70.00 to 2,651.66.

Clear, the FAA-approved E-Z pass-like program for air travelers that allows them to bypass the screening and feel-up process, is preparing to launch its first marketing campaign.

Procter & Gamble (NYSE:PG) has assembled a sketch-comedy cast to prep a pilot for a television show that will promote its products. If it works, the advertainment could be picked up by a cable network.

Honda (NYSE:HMC) is hot to move beyond its dominance of boomer buyers to reach Gen-Xers. The median age of Accord buyers is 54, and the company hopes to pull in a younger skew for the redesigned Accord. Watch the ads for more flash and contemporary music.

The Admarket index of the top 50 marketer, media and agency companies is down 4.3% from its 52-week high. Biggest losers are Valassis (NYSE:VCI) (-54%), McClatchy Co. (NYSE:MNI) (-49.9%) and ValueClick (NASDAQ:VCLK) (-41.3%).

Toyota (NYSE:TM) is leveraging its heightened NASCAR involvement (Joe Gibbs' team- he'll get 'er done!) with a new ad campaign. The company hopes to convince this country's car buyers that Toyota is an American brand.

You currently don't have to ask too many Americans about economic conditions in order to get the impression that at least here at home a majority of people sense that economic upheaval is quite underway. The word recession is becoming a bit too commonplace for my taste and I have come across more than a couple references to "the coming pandemic." I myself wouldn't go so far as to predict widespread economic collapse, but I have called the current economic environment a "realignment" and I hold with that assessment.

In light of our volatile economic times I thought it might be a good thing to do a quick piece about risk assessment. I have suggested that now is the time to cut risk to the bone; I still hold to that. The theory is that the greater risk you take the more you should be rewarded for taking that risk. My position is that currently our high risk economic environment will not, except in a few scattered cases, provide adequate return for the risks involved. In my opinion the risk curve is temporarily broken and I suggest holding the bulk of your money away from high risk play.

I have had the privilege of being an investment adviser/analyst for the past 28 years and even have the gray hairs to prove it! What has been so consistent in these past 28 years is the, well, inconsistency of the markets. When you look back and reflect, a sometimes scary experience, the one inevitable conclusion is the stock market is and has been the best place for long-term savings.

When I started in 1979, the Dow was in the mid 600's and now sits at 13,113 -- a full 20 fold increase over these past 28 years. When you reflect on this simple fact, it is pretty impressive. I cannot think of any other asset class that has performed so well over that time period. Many of us, in spite of the real estate slow down, still have huge gains in our homes, but I cannot think of anyone I know that has 20-folded their home value.

The "real" bull market began on August 17, 1982 when the Dow went up 38 points on that fateful day. 38 points in 1982 when the Dow was in the 700's is equivalent to a 600-700 point up movement in today's markets. It was incredible and it began to re-focus the American investor in the United States equity markets once again. A big volume day was still under 100 million shares traded. Things have changed.