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Derivatives are the main enemy says Italian Treasury Minister Tremonti

On January 9 a meeting in Paris was chaired by French President Sarkozy to stimulate debate ahead of the G-20 meeting in April. Several issues were discussed. The most dramatic proposal came from Italian Economy Minister, Giulio who proposed a "legal standard" for world economies similar to the "gold standard" of the past which liked economies together.

Among his proposals are a very long moratorium for toxic products and derivatives in order to prevent them from "destroying the entire system."

President Sarkozy of France who chaired the meeting said he wanted to discuss issues facing world economies and how to deal with them. He noted that the world has taken advantage of deregulation in order to abandon rules.

Italian Treasury Minister Tremonti said that derivatives are the main enemy. He went on to say that they are worth a staggering 12.5 times the global GDP, and their real impact is unknown. He said that some things must be protected and a priority must be given to businesses and families.

Can you imagine what might happen if the whole world starts deleveraging all at once?

Do you agree with these proposals? Will they help to solve our financial problems?

Astrology and the markets: Pure nonsense?

Andromeda, again. by makelessnoiseWhere do I turn next? The experts don't seem to have a clue about our economy and where it is headed. Well then, let's look at the stars.

If you've never heard of such a thing, it sounds pretty crazy. But there is actually a community of investors out there that believes that reading the stars is the key to profiting in the stock market.

I'm not one of them, but it's fun to tap into their insights every now and then. Here is the latest:

The planet Pluto moved into Capricorn this past fall just in time for Freddie, Fannie and AIG to collapse. Capricorn is a sign of discipline. It is a disruptive force that is wreaking havoc from central banks to stock markets all over the world. Capricorn has the effect of looking at things objectively, without emotion and looking at reality the way it is -- not the way we want it to be.

For the past 15 years Pluto was moving through Sagittarius, a sign of expansion, growth, over extension, and over optimism. This could help to explain the way world economies grew helter skelter with the whole world getting over-extended and over-burdened with excessive debt. It was a "devil-may-care" attitude on the part of Wall Street and individuals as well. Now with the bursting of the bubble, the chickens have come home to roost.

Pluto will be going through the U.S. chart 8th house of mystery, death and rebirth. The last time this happened was in 1776!

Do you foresee big changes coming? Do you think the stars can help us decide how to invest?

Martin Wolf: Wanted! Economic pragmatists with bold ideas

Financial Times columnist Martin Wolf argues that the current financial crisis and global recession is best viewed through a Keynesian lens, and it's the lens of a pragmatist.

Wolf sees three Keynesian themes, or lessons, that policy makers would be wise to heed.

Keynes: Markets are essential, but not perfect

The first: if you expect markets to be self-correcting and self-policing, there's trouble up ahead. Wolf: Mistakes occur, even among those who were following standard operating procedure. A market filled with bankers -- or other participants -- following standard operating procedures that were flawed leads to ... what we have today, pretty much -- a global recession and constrained credit.

The second: It's o.k. for a corporation to become more efficient, but it's not necessarily a good thing if a society or nation (or world) does so all at once. This reinforces one of Keynes's tenets: It's a good thing to have consumers amass savings, but if everyone saves everything all the time it would be a disaster.

Or, for the globalization version of the above, economist Richard Felson told BloggingStocks: "We need people in the United States to save more money, but if people in Europe, China, India, Japan, Brazil and Russia do the same thing simultaneously, the global economy will remain in a recession for a very long time."

Continue reading Martin Wolf: Wanted! Economic pragmatists with bold ideas

U.S. fiscal policy stimulus for the digital age

When one travels in economists' circles, one tends to tap into the issues, controversies and policy ideas 'dismal science' practitioners are debating.

And one issue economists have rattled around concerns the speed of fiscal policy stimulus, or more accurately, the lack thereof. In the digital age, the internet has propelled a host of speed-enhancing changes, and it occurred to this group of economists that U.S. Government policy is decidedly behind the curve in this area.

Here's why: economist David H. Wang noted that the U.S., in an attempt to jump-start its economy stalled by the nation's worst housing slump in more than 15 years, has implemented a host of monetary policy changes to provide monetary stimulus quicker. The U.S. Federal Reserve cut key, short-term interests multiple times during a 10-week span (and later implemented additional rate cuts), and devised two, new, Fed-administered institutions to address the credit crisis, provide liquidity, and ensure the orderly operation of financial markets.

Continue reading U.S. fiscal policy stimulus for the digital age

Time's Person of the Year Putin and his market

Almost in concert with Time Magazine naming Vladimir Putin Person of the Year, the FT has an insightful article on investing in Russia.

Why, amidst the re-emergence of Cold War tensions and the grinding down of individual liberties in Russia, was Putin named as Person of the Year? Read the article. But more than anything else, Time cites that Putin "stands, above all, for stability-stability before freedom, stability before choice, stability in a country that has hardly seen it for a hundred years."

Fine. But what does this mean for Russian markets?

Well, the FT article -- written by Douglas Helfer, manager of the HSBC GIF Russia Equity fund -- states that "Russian equities have underperformed most global emerging market peers by a wide margin this year due in large part to the uncertainty surrounding the current election cycle."

Russia is facing just the second transition of power since the Soviet Union fell more than 15 years ago, so investors have a reason to be skittish. That said, since Putin arrived in power, between January 2000 and March this year, the MSCI Russia index was up by 1,200%.

As my colleague Aaron Katsman is fond of saying, Giddyup.

Zack Miller is the managing editor of IsraelNewsletter.com and a former equity analyst for a leading multinational hedge fund.

The market in rhyme

Poetry slamThe market keeps falling, they say, because of sub-prime,
But don't worry, keep buying, what was worth a dollar is now worth just a dime;
People with no money to pay, getting a mortgage is no crime,
"Be patient," we tell our nervous clients, your time horizon is for a long-time.

It's Greenspan's fault, the experts say,
No, says Cramer, it's Bernanke's fault all the way;
With no sub-prime exposure, everyone says Large Tech is the magic play,
"Be patient," we tell our nervous clients, don't look at your portfolio each day.

My screen is all red from stocks across the land,
The phones keep ringing, noise like a marching band;
Just give me some suntan lotion and I'll lie in the sand,
"Be patient," we tell our nervous clients, at least you're diversified and own some South African Rand.

A bounce is due, it's in sight,
Dow-theory sell signals you will live in fright;
How many more articles do we need to read about selling in hindsight,
"Be patient," we tell our nervous clients, at the end of the tunnel there is sure to be light.

"So, what should we do" is what I hear,
With hedge fund selling we are all overcome with fear;
Abby Joseph says forget about losses we are in the clear,
"Be patient," we tell our nervous clients, the holidays are coming, with Rudolph and his red-nosed reindeer.

Bargains abound the analysts tell us,
For those who listened, it was like they were run over by a bus;
With severance worth millions Prince and O'Neill ask,"why all the fuss",
"Be patient," we tell our nervous clients, you can always take a second job and be a bit industrious.

Aaron Katsman is the lead Portfolio Manager and Managing Director of America Israel Investment Associates, LLC. and Senior Editor of IsraelNewsletter.com.

Markets plunge on near-$100 oil, a record-low dollar, and billions in distressed debt

The New York Times reports that the Dow lost 360 points -- or 2.64% -- back to where it was before Ben Bernanke cut the Federal Funds Rate an unexpectedly large 50 basis points. My message to Bernanke is that cutting rates just to keep the market from falling is not a winning strategy.

The Fed is supposed to keep inflation in check, and it's failing at that job. How so? At $96.37, the price of oil is near an unprecedented $100, and gasoline prices -- which blessedly dropped during the fall -- are poised to rise about 50% to $4.50 a gallon, just as people step up their driving during the holidays. On January 19, 2001, oil was $24 a barrel -- it has since quadrupled. Meanwhile, the cost of heating a home is hitting a record -- $3.05 a gallon for home heating oil in Massachusetts. It may be higher elsewhere.

Then there's the little problem that the Fed has engendered through its rate cuts -- a dollar that's plunging like a knife. Relative to the euro, the dollar has lost 13% from $1.30 at the beginning of January 2007, to its current $1.47. And since January 19, 2001, the dollar has lost 60% of its value! Back then, one euro bought 92 cents. In addition to Brazilian supermodel Gisele Bundchen, China is now seeking to switch from the dollar to the euro. So the dollar drop is feeding on itself.

Continue reading Markets plunge on near-$100 oil, a record-low dollar, and billions in distressed debt

Wednesday Market Rap: Weak dollar pounds U.S. stocks

The markets moved significantly lower today as the dollar continued its free fall on news that China diversified its foreign currency holdings.

Over the last five years, the U.S. dollar has lost about 32% of its value compared to the euro (see chart below). What does this mean for you? Well, it means that 32% of the rise in the price of oil is due to the weak U.S. dollar. It means if you want to travel internationally, it is going to cost you about 1/3 more than it would have five years ago.

Some companies benefit from a weak U.S. dollar long term. Domestic agriculture like corn has been strong recently, and companies like Deere (NYSE: DE) that support agriculture benefit. Also, foreign tourists will find it more attractive to visit the United States as their euros will convert into more dollars. So Disney (NYSE: DIS) or Harrah's (NYSE: HAS) Las Vegas casinos could benefit. A weak U.S. dollar helps jobs domestically, as any company that is exporting will find its goods cheaper for foreigners to buy. But all foreign goods are going to be more expensive for Americans to buy.

Continue reading Wednesday Market Rap: Weak dollar pounds U.S. stocks

StockWatch: Between the Bells with Todd Harrison

"Good traders know how to make money, great traders know how to take a loss," Todd Harrison advises in the latest edition of StockWatch: Between the Bells. The prudent founder and CEO of Minyanville Publishing and Multimedia recommends always working with the market: "Trade to win, never trade not to lose."

Continue reading StockWatch: Between the Bells with Todd Harrison

How financial planners can help investors deal with market volatility

Peter Cohan

Though August's market volatility is now a distant memory for some investors, it could be a spur to seek out assistance from financial planners. How can financial planners advise clients to deal with volatility, both from a psychological and portfolio standpoint? What does volatility actually indicate about underlying economic fundamentals (apart from fear and uncertainty)?

In my view, financial planners need to be honest about what they know and what they don't know. And they should advise their clients to prepare themselves for volatility through a combination of balancing their life – the psychological part -- and portfolio contingency planning – the portfolio perspective.

From a psychological perspective, I don't know if financial planners have a role – beyond recommending psychologists who specialize in helping people deal with psychological pressures related to money. But one thing financial planners can do is to be honest about the limitations of their knowledge:


Continue reading How financial planners can help investors deal with market volatility

Google's (GOOG) U.S. customers see more downtime per year

Think that Google, Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) puts the U.S. first in terms of service quality? Although most users would probably not ever notice, the U.S. actually ranks near the bottom in terms of downtime to internet users, according to a recent survey.

Among a measurement of actual downtime for one of the world's largest internet properties, Google's U.S. figure came in at number 26 on the list. That figure included 31 minutes of measured downtime for the yearlong period of September 1, 2006 to September 1, 2007. Thirty-one minutes may not seem like a lot of time, but for an internet-based company, that can be considered moderately high. For most of us who use Google, I sincerely doubt any downtime at all was seen. Did you witness any?

The study also said that Googlers in the U.S. of A. were 10 times more likely to encounter issues compared to Google users located in Brazil. For being Google's home market, apparently the search giant doesn't prioritize quality on that basis. Of course, the number of variables that can affect downtime must be virtually unlimited, with many of them outside of Google's control.

Indeed, Brazil had the best uptime for that annual period, with three short minutes of downtime. The Netherlands experienced 11 minutes of downtime, followed closely by India, Thailand and Japan. The worst? Those countries included Israel at 34 minutes of downtime, followed by Turkey, Singapore, Taiwan and Sweden. If those numbers sounds like a lot, none of the countries saw below a 99.99% uptime level at all on a global basis, according to the article. That fact in and of itself is pretty amazing, all things considered.

Volatile Markets: Checking our stock picks - Week 4

Back on August 16, with the Dow opening under 13,000 for the first time since April, our BloggingStocks experts outlined a number of stock plays to ride out this volatile market. Picks ranged from Dow components and other household names to obscure business-to-business giants and foreign market leaders. Here, we review our picks weekly.

Four weeks into our Stocks for a Volatile Market feature, our index has fallen just behind the Nasdaq, grounded mostly by shoe and apparel maker Steven Madden (NASDAQ: SHOO), picked by Kevin Kelly. After giving up $2.51 in week three, Madden dropped $3.39 in week four, falling 14.7% and leaving SHOO at $19.67, 17.77% under its August 16 price of $23.92.

Might as well get all the bad news out of the way -- it looks like Sheldon Liber's call, FreightCar America Inc. (NYSE: RAIL), has temporarily derailed. After strong gains in previous weeks, RAIL dropped $3.78 in week four -- a loss of 8.35% -- and slipped to $41.49, 4.4% under its initial price.

Continue reading Volatile Markets: Checking our stock picks - Week 4

Flash: Japan rallies on news of Bush's subprime plan

News that President Bush would outline a program to help homeowners in the subprime part of the market sent Japanese stocks up sharply, and companies that import goods to the U.S. were up more than the broader Nikkei.

The Nikkei rose 415 points or 2.7%. Japanese car companies with large U.S. market shares were up, Honda (NYSE: HMC) by 4.4% and Toyota (NYSE: TM) by 3.7%, while Sony (NYSE: SNE) finished the session up 5.5%.

Douglas A. McIntyre is a partner at 24/7 Wall St.

Monday Market Rap: RSH, BMY, GT, CMG, CCU, & MA

The markets bounced back after last weeks big declines. There was positive action across the board with markets gaining about 1%. Radio Shack (NYSE: RSH) dropping $3.25 (-11%) to $25.55 on Q2 results. The Goodyear Tire & Rubber Company (NYSE: GT) bounced up $2.12 (8%) to $29.12 after a labor deal was reached. Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE: CMG) tasted better rising $6.07 (7%) to $87.57 on earnings. Nordstrom (NYSE: JWN) rose $3.15 (7%) to $47.06 after an upgrade. MasterCard Incorporated (NYSE: MA) rose $10.56 (7%) to $164.59.

The NYSE had volume of 4 billion shares with 2,115 shares advancing while 1,216 declined for a gain of 114.95 points to close at 9,623.18. On the NASDAQ, 2.4 billion shares traded, 1,718 advanced and 1,377 declined for a gain of 21.04 to 2583.28.

In options there were 7.1 million puts and 6.8 million calls traded for a put/call open interest ratio of 1.04. The most active call was the Financial Sector SPDR ETF (NYSE: XLF) saw heavy volume on the September 34 calls (XLFIH) with over 104,000 options trading. Likewise the two most heavily traded put were in the Financial Sector SPDR ETF (NYSE: XLF) on the September 31 puts (XLFUE) with over 97,000 contracts and the January 30 puts (XLFMD) with over 80,000 contracts. Bristol-Myers Squibb Co. (NYSE: BMY) saw exceptionally heavy volume on the January 35 calls (BMYAG) with over 77,000 options trading. Clear Channel Communications (NYSE: CCU) also saw activity the January 35 calls (CCUAG) with over 35,000 options trading.

Kevin Kersten is an Options Analyst with InvestorsObserver.com.

Friday the 13th: It's no nightmare on Wall Street

J. Andrew Coutts published a paper in January 1999 which argues that stocks do better on Friday the 13th than they do on other Fridays. So you triskaidekaphobians -- those who fear the number 13 -- have one less thing to worry about today.

Coutts published his paper in Applied Economic Letters, where he tested and disproved the hypothesis that stocks do worse on Friday the 13ths than they do on other Fridays. In fact, Coutts used daily returns data from Financial Times Industrial Ordinary Shares Index (FT 30) for the period July 1935 through December 1994 to find that stock returns are higher on Friday the 13th than on other Fridays.

But Coutts wasn't satisfied with that analysis so he broke the FT 30 data into six segments -- one per decade and again concluded that there is no evidence of a Friday the 13th effect, and that once again returns on Friday the 13th tend to be higher than on other Fridays.

Does this same pattern of good investor news on Friday the 13th hold for other indices? And what about today's market? This study predicts it will do better than other Fridays. I admire the statistical rigor of the author and the spirit of scientific inquiry he displays in his paper.

And I think its silly to think that it has any implications for investors.

Peter Cohan is president of Peter S. Cohan & Associates, a management consulting and venture capital firm. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter.

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Last updated: November 08, 2009: 08:45 PM

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