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Is Marvel getting away?

Ah, an upgrade of an old favorite of mine. Marvel Entertainment (NYSE: MVL). I've owned this one in the past. Never lost money on it. I'd like to be back in Marvel. Only one problem.

Yesterday, Marvel, a company whose comic library competes with Time Warner (NYSE: TWX) and its own stable of superheroes, received an upgrade from JPMorgan. It now is in the Overweight camp. Before, it was merely Neutral. As you might expect, the stock reacted. There was no way the market was going to ignore this because, really, Marvel is one of those stocks that does show a lot of promise considering that the sequel to Iron Man is due out next summer. Shares closed over 5% higher on Wednesday in reaction to the headline. The professional traders must loved the action.

Continue reading Is Marvel getting away?

Sony's 'Angels & Demons' triumphs over Viacom's 'Star Trek'

Last week's number-one picture, Star Trek, had to yield to a newcomer this week. Angels & Demons, distributed by Sony (NYSE: SNE), took the top spot this past weekend at domestic theaters, according to Boxofficemojo. The movie is credited with $48 million as of early estimates.

Trek, distributed by Viacom (NYSE: VIA), came in second with $43 million. And I have to say, although I wasn't impressed with the movie's box-office debut, I thought that the second weekend was relatively strong. I expected a better than 50% drop for its sophomore frame. As of current data, Trek only shed roughly 40% of its opening gross. Good job (I still think the opening was weak, though). The film is close to the $150 million mark.

Continue reading Sony's 'Angels & Demons' triumphs over Viacom's 'Star Trek'

Beam up more box-office bucks, Scotty!

Viacom (NYSE: VIA) came out on top this past weekend with its new Star Trek film. According to early estimates from Boxofficemojo, the picture made roughly $72 million over the three-day period at domestic theaters.

If you include some early screenings, the total is closer to $76 million. Trek beat out such projects as Marvel's (NYSE: MVL) and News Corp.'s (NASDAQ: NWS) X-Men Origins: Wolverine, which came in second place, and Time Warner's (NYSE: TWX) Ghosts of Girlfriends Past, which took spot number three.

Continue reading Beam up more box-office bucks, Scotty!

Marvel beat estimates in Q1 -- is its stock set to fly to new heights?

Marvel Entertainment (NYSE: MVL), whose colleagues include Sony (NYSE: SNE), News Corp. (NASDAQ: NWS), and Viacom (NYSE: VIA), issued its first-quarter report on Tuesday.

The market liked what it saw. That's because the comic-book concern beat analyst estimates by a pretty significant margin. Hey, what else would you expect from the company that brought you Iron Man?

Marvel delivered 57 cents per share in income. According to analysts, Wall Street was hoping for 37 cents per share. Quite a surprise.

Continue reading Marvel beat estimates in Q1 -- is its stock set to fly to new heights?

Was 'Wolverine's' box office that great?

It was a great weekend for comic book fans. First, Saturday was Free Comic Book Day. I hope you were able to celebrate (I did!). Second, Marvel's (NYSE: MVL) X-Men Origins: Wolverine, licensed to and distributed by News Corp. (NASDAQ: NWS), opened on Friday.

As expected, it completely annihilated the competition (I would have said clawed the competition, but I'm sure that pun has already been done to death by now) at the domestic box office over the weekend.

Continue reading Was 'Wolverine's' box office that great?

Hasbro meets expectations in tough Q1

Hasbro (NYSE: HAS), a toymaker that competes with Mattel (NYSE: MAT) and JAKKS Pacific (NASDAQ: JAKK), reported results for the first quarter on Monday. They weren't that spectacular. No big earnings beat here. Net sales were down 6%, even excluding the effect of currency translation. Net income dropped 44% to $0.14 per share. According to this source, that number unfortunately merely met Wall Street expectations.

Of course, I suppose things could have been worse. Hasbro could have missed expectations by a mile. In this kind of economy, we probably should be glad that a company whose products can easily be cut from any discretionary family budget at least was able to keep up with prevailing wisdom.

Continue reading Hasbro meets expectations in tough Q1

Does Marvel's Q4 performance change my opinion of the stock?

Recently, I wrote a piece about my reluctance to believe that Marvel (NYSE: MVL) was necessarily a buy based on an upgrade. Well, Marvel released Q4 earnings this week, and I admit, they were impressive. Net sales were $224 million, and income was 80 cents per share. Both of those numbers more than doubled last year's stats. Expectations were for 71 cents per share for the bottom line.

If you followed the stock at all this week, you may have noticed that shares rallied on Tuesday when the earnings report was issued. Marvel would have made for an excellent trade ahead of the release. But that's all in the past. I have to concede that the performance did make me want to be back in Marvel. I've made money on the stock before, and I do believe in its long-term prospects.

I think the big question now is: Will this deadly market simply be too much for the Marvel bulls? My answer to that question is yes. Of course, I'm not the one who decides what the price action is going to be from this point on. That's the market's collective call. Maybe the shares will begin to trend higher. But I think that buying any stock this year is going to be an exercise in exasperation.

Continue reading Does Marvel's Q4 performance change my opinion of the stock?

The week in preview: Eye on Marvel, KBR, First Solar, Deckers and more

Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters expected the parade of earnings declines to continue into the final week of February, with Martha Stewart Living Omnimedia Inc. (NYSE: MSO), Nordstrom Inc. (NYSE: JWN), Home Depot Inc. (NYSE: HD), Wynn Resorts Ltd. (NASDAQ: WYNN), Macy's Inc. (NYSE: M), DreamWorks Animation SKG Inc. (NYSE: DWA), Limited Brands Inc. (NYSE: LTD), Target Corp. (NYSE: TGT), Royal Bank Of Canada (NYSE: RY), Del Monte Foods Co. (NASDAQ: DLM), Kohl's Corp. (NYSE: KSS), Washington Post Co. (NYSE: WPO), Dell Inc. (NASDAQ: DELL), Gap Inc. (NYSE: GPS), Campbell Soup Co. (NYSE: CPB), RadioShack Corp. (NYSE: RSH), and H.J. Heinz Co. (NYSE: HNZ) all expected to post lower earnings for the most recent quarter. Office Depot Inc. (NYSE: ODP), Saks Inc. (NYSE: SKS), and Cooper Tire & Rubber Co. (NYSE: CTB) are expect to have swung to a loss.

Continue reading The week in preview: Eye on Marvel, KBR, First Solar, Deckers and more

Is Marvel worthy of an upgrade?

Marvel (NYSE: MVL) is a great company. It's got a lot of cool characters in its vast comic book portfolio. Spider-Man, Hulk, X-Men, you know them all. And it's a fun stock to both invest in and trade. It's a more direct play on movies than a Disney (NYSE: DIS) or a Time Warner (NYSE: TWX) is. I've made money on Marvel in the past. I don't currently own it, so I was pretty interested when I heard that Wedbush Morgan issued an upgrade this week.

Wedbush Morgan basically said that the market is undervaluing Marvel's potential. It sees a price target of $31. I myself think Marvel will break $30 yet again, but the problem I have is with sentiment. Exactly how will the market react to Marvel's shares this year?

Continue reading Is Marvel worthy of an upgrade?

Is the economy hurting Hollywood paychecks?

Jordan Stein over at Minyanville wrote a great piece about how the economy is causing a little bit of deflation for the salaries of Hollywood stars. As an example, Stein pointed out how Disney (NYSE: DIS) doesn't want to go overboard in terms of compensating Nicolas Cage for his services in the next National Treasure feature. That's a popular franchise, and Cage is arguably a key to its success. But guess what? Doesn't matter, because money is tight, and Hollywood managements need to inject some sanity into negotiations.

Which, of course, has always been the problem. There's never been any sanity when it comes to negotiations in Tinsel Town. Stars are overpaid, and they take too much of the gross dollars generated by celluloid assets. If we were talking about private studios, I wouldn't mind. But I own shares of Disney and believe that overpaid talent is one reason why the stock hasn't done much over a decade.

However, I'm not so sure that things are changing that much in Hollywood. If you read the entire article that Stein referenced, you'll note that it implies that individuals such as Will Smith and Johnny Depp aren't seeing reductions in their compensation packages. It might be great that Mickey Rourke may have been offered only $250,000 by Marvel (NYSE: MVL) for an opportunity to be in the Iron Man sequel, but unless bigger stars see reductions in their bottom lines, then the system cannot truly change.

Continue reading Is the economy hurting Hollywood paychecks?

Universal Pictures had a great year -- does it matter?

Recently, Zac Bissonnette took Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) and its press-release wizards to task for essentially issuing a document that was full of spin but low on substance. This was in regard to Amazon having its "best Christmas ever." I'm sure you've heard about it. Well, I was looking at an article yesterday that talked about some box-office numbers from General Electric's (NYSE: GE) Universal Pictures asset. I kind of got the same feeling about the numbers as Zac did about the Amazon Christmas thing.

Of course, keep in mind, the article I was looking at was not a press release. Still, the execs at NBC Universal are surely pretty proud about the numbers. After all, they are supposed to be best-ever stats. On the domestic side of things, Universal achieved a total box-office gross of approximately $1.1 billion.

On the international front, the studio brought in $1.7 billion. The year-over-year growth rate was flat for domestic theaters, and for international theaters, the company saw a robust 66% increase. Personally, I'm not impressed. To begin with, domestic was flat, and that's not good. And as for international, well, there was no context in terms of the effects of currency rates.

Plus, does it really matter if a studio is achieving high grosses? There's never any comment about profits and losses on specific titles, compensation structures for the stars, etc. To me, this data doesn't say a lot (admittedly, I'll never be satisfied with the amount of disclosure that studios are required to give on their movie projects).

The article mentions two films as drivers for the year that, in my opinion, underperformed in the domestic marketplace: The Incredible Hulk, based on the Marvel (NYSE: MVL) character, and the latest sequel in the Mummy franchise. The latter barely made it over the $100 million mark, and the former only grossed a little better than $130 million. Big deal. You would have figured that Universal could have squeezed some more box-office bucks out of these properties.

Many on Wall Street believe that GE should rid itself of NBC Universal. I'm not one of them, but I concede that Universal Pictures needs to do better. Seriously, Universal Pictures did okay, but not great, in '08. I sincerely hope that CEO Jeffrey Immelt does not allow the studio to rest on these laurels. That would be a shame, and a slap in the face to shareholders.

Disclosure: I own GE; positions can change without notice.

Is Take-Two Interactive a buy?

Take-Two Interactive (NASDAQ: TTWO), a video-game company that competes with Activision Blizzard (NASDAQ: ATVI) and Electronic Arts (NASDAQ: ERTS), hit a 52-week low on Monday. When I saw that the stock hit this level, I immediately began thinking about buying it. But, I must admit, it seems a little scary to be buying in now.

The reason I'm hesitant is that the magic of Grand Theft Auto IV has essentially come and gone. You know how it's fun and inspiring to buy Marvel (NYSE: MVL) ahead of some big movie releases? Trades like that don't always work out, but at least you feel a little more confident about owning the stock.

Then there's the recent earnings report from Take-Two. The publisher disappointed investors, as Zac Bissonnette observed. The numbers weren't great, and you have to wonder how much interest the institutions on Wall Street will have in a company that not only might be susceptible to the slowdown in consumer spending, but which has already used up its major ace.

Continue reading Is Take-Two Interactive a buy?

I can't believe 'Four Christmases' is #1 again

According to Boxofficemojo, holiday cheer is currently ruling the silver screen. Time Warner's (NYSE: TWX) Four Christmases was number one at domestic theaters this past weekend with an estimated haul of $18 million. This is the movie's second weekend out, and it's the second time that it captured the top slot. What gives? Seriously. Is the movie that good? I expressed similar sentiment last week about the flick. I guess congratulations are in order for Time Warner and its marketing machine.

And I continue to be surprised by Summit Entertainment's Twilight. The teen phenomenon doesn't seem as phenomenal to me anymore. It came in second over the weekend, and its cumulative gross now stands at slightly under $140 million. Is it me, or were you thinking that Twilight would have snared over $200 million by now?

And just to prove that all my expectations are being turned upside down, let me say that I thought Disney's (NYSE: DIS) Bolt would have surely made it past the century mark by its third weekend at the multiplex. Not even close. Right now, Bolt has close to $80 million in its dog bowl (hey, I had to come up with one goofy pun, right?). By comparison, DreamWorks Animation's (NYSE: DWA) Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa, which is distributed by Viacom (NYSE: VIA), has grossed about $165 million after its fifth weekend at bat.

Continue reading I can't believe 'Four Christmases' is #1 again

I'm out of Marvel Entertainment

Well, I've finally done it. I sold my entire position of Marvel Entertainment (NYSE: MVL). It wasn't an easy decision.

When I covered Marvel's latest earnings report, I alluded to the issue of emotion. My emotion, to be specific. I stated that it most likely would be in my best interest to get out of the stock since there really weren't many catalysts coming up in 2009 to propel the stock higher.

In fact, it would be easy to make the argument that, since the market has been so haywire and irrational, one must take profits when one has a profit to indeed take. Marvel is just such a stock in my portfolio. I have several paper losses, but Marvel retains its green status on my board. I love the company's story on a long-term basis, absolutely adore it, but I think it is incumbent upon every trade and investor to build a cash stash that can be used for opportunities the market may throw their way.

The Marvel position that I liquidated on Tuesday was one I owned for quite a while. It had a nice profit attached to it. I feel good about preserving that capital, especially since Marvel is lower today (at least, it's lower as I write this; as we all know, that could change in a heartbeat).

Continue reading I'm out of Marvel Entertainment

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Last updated: July 11, 2009: 11:55 AM

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