Has Viacom's (NYSE: VIA) Tropic Thunder succeeded where the Joker has failed? Has the film beaten Time Warner's (NYSE: TWX) The Dark Knight? According to early estimates at Boxofficemojo, it has. Can you believe it? Tropic Thunder, which stars Ben Stiller, right now has $26 million to its credit, enough to capture the top spot. That number will change most likely when final tallies are in, but it doesn't matter, since The Dark Knight is believed to have taken in a little under $17 million over the three-day weekend at domestic multiplexes, giving it a second-place finish. This is good news for shareholders of Viacom, who have so far been pretty happy with the studio's successful summer output. Box-office hits like Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull and Marvel's (NYSE: MVL) Iron Man have powered the media company.
Now, Time Warner's new animated flick, Star Wars: The Clone Wars, actually did worse than I expected. It came in third with $15 million. I admit, I totally misread this one. Believe it or not, I thought the film might do a huge number, like between $40 million and $50 million. I'm not sure the box-office dynamics at this time of year would have supported a statistic like that for this kind of film. And I guess I overestimated the number of geeks out there who were waiting to see it during the first weekend out. I really blew it on that one. News Corp.'s (NYSE: NWS) horror flick Mirrors came in fourth place, while Pineapple Express, distributed by Sony (NYSE: SNE), came in fifth. I saw Express last week. Cool movie.
Marvel Entertainment Inc. (NYSE: MVL) reported earnings for the second quarter on Tuesday, and as one might imagine, even though the numbers were solid, the stock sold off. Hey, this is Marvel we're talking about here. Its shares can be volatile little suckers. They're used as trading instruments by many. I'm even questioning if I should have trimmed my position before the report. As I write this at 2 pm, the stock is off by almost 9%. Let's see what the stats tell us.
The top line rose by 55% to $156.9 million. The bottom line increased by a whopping 73% to $0.59 per diluted share. Talk about hulking up! According to Earnings.com, the call was for $0.45 per share. That's a $0.14 beat, and that freakin' rules.
As one might imagine, Iron Man, which was distributed by Viacom (NYSE: VIA), and The Incredible Hulk, placed in theaters by General Electric's (NYSE: GE) Universal, helped drive the results. The films gave Marvel some nice licensing revenues and foreign pre-sale monies. There were no contributions from the box-office side of things yet. Marvel will certainly see a good boost to its revenues if, down the line, the home-video release of the projects sell well (which I think they will). Judging from statements made in the conference call (transcribed at Seeking Alpha), we'll see most of the ancillary benefit from the movies next year. I was disappointed to see that publishing was weak (there were some tough comps there), but I'll tell you what was pretty strong: cash flow. Net cash from operations for the last six months more than doubled to over $68 million. And I love cash.
Revenues for the second quarter increased 21% to almost $3.9 billion. Net income from continuing operations expanded 19% to 64 cents per share. That beat the estimate I was using by three pennies (other sources listed a lower estimate for earnings). No matter how you slice it, Viacom showed Wall Street how it's done.
Now, let me admit how wrong I was. I thought media networks would shine during the quarter and that the film division might not do as well. Operating income at media networks increased 4%, while Paramount and its colleagues increased their segment's profit by almost 300%! You can thank the new Indiana Jones movie, as well as Marvel's (NYSE: MVL) Iron Man and DreamWorks Animation's (NYSE: DWA) Kung Fu Panda, for bringing the crowds into the multiplex and the money into Viacom's coffers.
Viacom (NYSE: VIA) is due to report Q2 earnings on Tuesday, July 29, after the market closes. What will be in store for the media company and fierce competitor of Disney (NYSE: DIS), News Corp. (NYSE: NWS), Sony (NYSE: SNE), and Time Warner (NYSE: TWX)? According to data at Zacks.com, the company may report something in the vicinity of $0.61 per share, which would be good for 12% growth on the bottom line. Viacom has a reasonable chance of beating the estimate, based on past history.
There will be a few key elements that investors will be looking at. One product that has been a driving factor for Viacom's success is, believe it or not, a video game. Rock Band, which competes against Activision Blizzard's (NASDAQ: ATVID) Guitar Hero titles, has been a boon for the company, and the MTV segment specifically. The game, which is distributed by Electronic Arts (NASDAQ: ERTS), will have a sequel coming out this fall, and I hope management enlightens Wall Street about how it feels it will do against Activision Blizzard's new iteration of its own musical-gaming system and how it plans to promote it. Will there be any special synergies between MTV and the sequel? Watch for data on the number of song downloads that Rock Band is fueling.
When I took a look at Viacom's last earnings report, I found that the media-networks division was doing great business. Its operating income had jumped 15%. The media segment, which includes the valuable MTV Networks, should do well again in Q2, and I would expect something close to this kind of growth rate. However, I would be watching for signs from management that the economy may be affecting advertising. Going forward, this will be the challenge for MTV, Nickelodeon, etc. And speaking of Nickelodeon, are there any initiatives on the board to counteract the incredible growth that the Disney Channel has seen thanks to properties such as Hannah Montana? Investors should listen to the conference call for information about marketing plans and new shows, as well as merchandising schemes for the upcoming holiday season.
There will be five superheroes competing for the attention of weekend moviegoers come Friday. There's Marvel Entertainment Inc. (NYSE: MVL)'s duo Iron Man and The Incredible Hulk, Sony Corporation (NYSE: SNE)'s Hancock, General Electric Corporation (NYSE: GE)'s Hellboy (distributed by GE's Universal), and Time Warner, Inc (NYSE: TWX)'s Dark Knight. So, who's going to be the ultimate crime fighter?
I'll tell you which one prevails: Time Warner and its new Batman film, The Dark Knight, has the weekend all locked up. This is set in stone. The Hulk and Iron Man are pretty much done, Hellboy isn't a powerful enough brand name,and Hancock didn't deliver the big numbers I thought it was capable of during its debut weekend (since then, however, the movie has held up well, I have to admit). But you can bet that Dark Knight hits $100 million this weekend. Can you feel the buzz surrounding this blockbuster in the wings? I can. Several reviews I've read were full of cinematic worship for this new entry in the franchise, with special praise reserved for the late Heath Ledger and his portrayal of the fiendish nightmare known as The Joker. There's a decent marketing campaign behind the project, including promotion of the availability of IMAX (NASDAQ: IMAX) screenings. If there ever seemed a movie fit for Imax, this is it. Yeah, Dark Knight can't lose, it can only win big.
Of course, what about Time Warner's stock? It could certainly use a superhero right now, as it has been hovering in recent times not above Gotham City (although that would probably be treacherous enough) but above 52-week-low City. I can't say that a big opening weekend definitely won't move the stock a little just due to the excitement factor, but I wouldn't buy the company ahead of the film (I also wouldn't gamble with IMAX either). Time Warner simply is too large to be affected significantly by one movie. If you consider Time Warner at all, it would be for fundamentals and valuation (I think the company is cheap here, although with this market, I'd rather get it cheaper). Enjoy the movie first, think about the stock later...
Disclosure: I own GE and Marvel; positions can change at any time.
Marvel (NYSE: MVL) is all about making movie franchises these days. For instance, the success of Iron Man has led to plans for a sequel. Shareholders are, understandably, happy about this since a series of blockbuster films will rake in a lot of money for the company and have a positive effect on the shares.
But, Marvel's second movie out of the gate, The Incredible Hulk, may not get the sequel treatment, according to the Hollywood Reporter. The article implied that the financial performance of the film may not have been blockbuster enough to make a sequel inevitable. That doesn't mean that it won't eventually get one, but since there are, as of now, no plans for another Hulk, the speculation is out there. As aforementioned, we already know that there will be another Iron Man.
As a Marvel shareholder, I am disappointed by the box-office results for this latest iteration of the Hulk (even the first weekend seemed weak). Back in 2003, when that year's movie version of the character was released, there was widespread disdain for the project (I myself couldn't stand the flick). Then came this summer's so-called reboot of the franchise. Unfortunately, as of now, 2008 Hulk hasn't done much better than 2003 Hulk.
It's the Fourth of July weekend, and movie studios want to capture as much money for their films as possible, even if they've already been in the theaters for several weeks. No matter what, though, Sony (NYSE: SNE)'s Hancock, starring the always excellent Will Smith, is set to be the financial superhero of the weekend. Already, as of this writing, the film has taken in about $24 million through Wednesday, according to Boxofficemojo. The movie had some showings on Tuesday before its official debut in the middle of the week. It was number one on Wednesday, followed by Disney (NYSE: DIS)'s Wall-E. The robot flick so far has a total tally of around $86 million.
Poor Marvel (NYSE: MVL) and its The Incredible Hulk project. Will anybody be interested in seeing the big green guy now that Hancock is in the marketplace? Indeed, Hulk took in less than a million bucks on Wednesday, and it ranked number seven for that day. Looks like the Hulk fever is winding down at the multiplex, and it looks like Marvel's stock has had its run for the time being. The stock closed on Thursday at $31.20, well away from the 52-week high of $37.41. I still hold Marvel shares, and although there are no big catalysts on the immediate horizon, I have a long-term outlook on the company. Still, the trader in me wishes that I had lightened up on the position back at the $37 level to book some gains.
Hancock should do well north of $100 million once the Fourth of July holiday period has passed. The marketing, in my opinion, is very compelling, and from what I know about the story, it's a smart idea that provides a nice balance to the frivolous plots of Iron Man and Hulk (I'm using the term "frivolous" here with affection). Sony's scored a hit, maybe even a new franchise (I haven't seen the film, so I can't say if a sequel is feasible or not within the confines of the concept), but it won't do much to move the company's stock. Those looking to play the Hollywood game might want to wait for Marvel to pull back further from current levels.
Disclosure: I own Disney and Marvel; positions can change at any time.
I didn't think Disney's (NYSE: DIS) Wall-E movie would do as well as it did over the weekend. I thought $60 million was too much to hope for (see my previous piece on the subject). I was wrong. According to Boxofficemojo, the Pixar picture pulled in more than $62 million at domestic theaters and came out on top.
Assuming the film continues to do well in upcoming weekends, Wall-E should provide a nice counterbalance to the relative disappointment of Disney's Prince Caspian project that was released in May. While Wall-E won't move Disney's stock all by itself, the movie and its characters should help drive the studio segment in future quarters, as well as provide some opportunities for promotions and initiatives in other parts of the company, such as the theme parks.
Wanted, distributed by General Electric's (NYSE: GE) Universal, debuted in second place with a haul of more than $50 million. The movie, starring Angelina Jolie, had some snazzy, Matrix-like commercials powering its appeal. I can see why the numbers were big on this one. Time Warner (NYSE: TWX) and Get Smart didn't stand a chance against Wanted. It dropped two spots to third place with a tally of $20 million. And, no, I still don't find Steve Carell funny.
I didn't think Get Smart was going to come in at number one, but that's exactly what happened, according to Boxofficemojo. The film, distributed by Time Warner (NYSE: TWX), took in an estimated $39 million at domestic theaters. The film, quite frankly, looks horrible, and I don't get the fascination people have with Steve Carell's supposed "comedic talents." I don't really find him funny. Doesn't matter, though, because moviegoers have crowned Carell king of the box-office weekend whether I like it or not.
I'm actually more concerned with the race for second place between Marvel's (NYSE: MVL) The Incredible Hulk and DreamWorks Animation's (NYSE: DWA) Kung Fu Panda. Both are estimated as of this writing to have booked a little more than $21 million in ticket sales. I'm concerned about this because I own shares of Marvel, and I'm disappointed in the movie's box-office performance. As of now, the new Hulk has about $96 million in terms of total gross.The fact that it hasn't scored over $100 million by now, coupled with it experiencing a 60% drop for this weekend compared to its debut weekend, leaves me less than satisfied.
Viacom's (NYSE: VIA) The Love Guru bombed. Looks like you can't always count on stars to deliver the important opening-weekend audience. Are people getting sick of Mike Myers? (Jonathan Berr wondered the same thing.) He was only able to conjure up about $14 million for Viacom shareholders, bringing his film to a fourth-place debut. That's embarrassing for Myers, but unlike Steve Carell, he is genuinely funny (although maybe not so much in this particular film, it seems). News Corp.'s (NYSE: NWS) M. Night Shyamalan movie The Happening grossed around $10 million and came in fifth.
I love summer, not only for the weather, but also for all the movies making their way to the multiplexes. According to this article at Marketwatch, for the first six weeks of the U.S. summer box-office season, the total gross for theatrical movies hit $1.46 billion, a statistic that represents about a 5% increase year-over-year in the comparable period. You can thank hits such as Marvel's (NYSE: MVL) Iron Man and Viacom's (NYSE: VIA) Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull for driving the nice results.
Now, I don't mean to rain on this parade, but I'm afraid I find myself in a similar frame of mind in terms of a piece I wrote back in March about the 2007 movie-business statistics. You see, I always like to look at number of tickets sold as a barometer for the true health of Hollywood. The number of tickets sold increased 1.6% to 206.2 million. The average price of a movie ticket rose 2.9% to $7.08. Now, while I am glad to see an increase this time around in terms of number of tickets sold, I don't find a 1.6% increase terribly exciting. It tells me that the theater industry still needs to convince people that it's fun to get out of the house, away from the giant televisions and the snazzy home-theater systems, and chomp on overpriced popcorn in a dark auditorium. Going to movie theaters is something that, in my opinion, can't truly be replicated in the home. A lot of people don't share that opinion, however.
The challenge for Disney (NYSE: DIS), Time Warner (NYSE: TWX), Sony (NYSE: SNE), and General Electric's (NYSE: GE) Universal is to make people feel that waiting for the DVD shouldn't be the norm. The shared experience of a movie screening is a unique part of culture, and studios need to communicate this fact through their marketing campaigns. I do think there is more work ahead for Hollywood. Focus on the number of tickets sold, that's the big metric.
Disclosure: I own Disney and GE; positions can change at any time.
Marvel's (NYSE: MVL) movie The Incredible Hulk was incredibly disappointing (to me at least). No, I'm not talking about the quality of the movie. I didn't actually see it. But Boxofficemojo is reporting that it has grossed an estimated $54.5 million at domestic theaters over the weekend. While that was good enough for first place, it wasn't good enough for shareholders. The movie bombed, plain and simple.
Why am I being so hard on a number-one movie? It's not so difficult to understand. The awful Hulk movie that was released back in 2003 grossed $62.1 million in its opening weekend. There's no way to spin this. We've had five years of inflation between that terrible flick and this new iteration. Simply put, it should have grossed at least $65/$70 million, especially on the heels of Iron Man. I'm a shareholder of Marvel, and I don't like the fact that the success of Marvel's first movie of the summer didn't synergize a little better with the angry green guy.
Focusing on the positive, Marvel was able to beat DreamWorks Animation (NYSE: DWA) and its Kung Fu Panda project. The cartoon took in about $34 million and came in second. M. Night Shyamalan's The Happening, distributed by News Corp. (NYSE: NWS), did okay by coming in third with a gross of around $30 million. Some analysts thought that the horror flick would do a little bit less than that number. Personally, I thought it should have come in second place considering Shyamalan's name, but I guess people aren't as excited as they used to be about his exercises in cinematic twists (the fact that it was rated R also inhibited its blockbuster potential). Sony's (NYSE: SNE) Adam Sandler comedy You Don't Mess with the Zohan did in fact get messed with yet again, dropping two spots to fourth place, grossing about $16 million. I've heard bad reviews on this one. Viacom (NYSE: VIA) and Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull were daring enough for fifth place. Everyone's favorite archaeologist has now breached the $275 million level. Great to see a favorite character of mine from the past doing so well.
Yesterday, I wrote about my nervousness over Marvel's (NYSE: MVL) The Incredible Hulk. Today, I'd like to talk about how I wouldn't be so nervous if the Iron Man sequel ended up being directed by someone other than Jon Favreau. There are two excellent articles on The Motley Fool discussing this issue, one by Nathan Alderman and one by Marvel expert Tim Beyers. At the time those articles were published earlier in the week, it had seemed that Marvel was reticent about ponying up a higher compensation package for Mr. Favreau on the heels of the awesome success of the first movie starring Robert Downey, Jr. David Maisel, chairman of Marvel Studios, apparently wants to be very conservative about the company's above-the-line costs. Alderman thinks Marvel should give Favreau the requested raise, while Beyers understands the Hollywood dynamics going on and can see why both sides are doing what they are doing.
By the time my own piece is published, it's possible Favreau may be confirmed as the director of the second Iron Man (as I write this, there are rumors that a deal has been offered). Regardless of what happens, I'd like to offer my opinion on whether or not Favreau is an absolutely necessary component for an Iron Man sequel.
He isn't. And if shareholders think he is, then they had better rethink their investment in Marvel. What shareholders must ask themselves is this: Is it the director that is responsible for the ultimate success of a Marvel film, or is it Marvel management and the intangible value of the Marvel intellectual-property portfolio? Which element adds more equity? As far as I'm concerned as a shareholder, I'm investing in Marvel. I'm not investing in Jon Favreau. Any investor who believes that any one director is indispensable is going to be in for a stomach-churning ride, because when the day comes that a Jon Favreau or a Sam Raimi (he directed the Spider-Man flicks) decides that Marvel is no longer paying them what they're worth and jumps ship, the stock could easily see an overreaction sell-off.
I have a confession to make: I'm getting nervous as the weekend approaches. A certain movie has me rather frightened. Is it that creepy picture about mass suicides from M. Night Shyamalan? Nope. It's Marvel's (NYSE: MVL) The Incredible Hulk. I'm a shareholder of Marvel, and I'm worried about its prospects. It opens on Friday the 13th. Yeah, that's a lucky omen.
Hulk, which is being distributed by General Electric's (NYSE: GE) Universal (I own GE as well, but this won't move GE at all), represents a fresh start for the green, angry beast. If you'll recall, there was a Hulk movie back in summer 2003. It was horrible. In fact, I remember getting up and walking around the theater during a portion of the film so that I could do a bit of self-editing on it. This time around could be different. I just read a review from The Hollywood Reporter that was featured in this Reuters link, and I have to say, I do feel a little calmer. According to the review, this new take on the Hulk character is an entertaining cinematic diversion wholly suitable for the dog days of summer. It apparently is a superior product.
The weekend domestic box-office results weren't too shocking. I pretty much knew that DreamWorks Animation's (NYSE: DWA) Kung Fu Panda would kick its way to the top (I wonder how many writers will be using that phrase when covering the movie this week). But when I saw that Boxofficemojo estimated a $60 million gross for the cartoon, I actually was disappointed. These days, a $60 million haul in the summertime doesn't seem impressive. I thought Panda might have been worth a little more. But, after checking some of the historical openings for other DreamWorks pictures, I realized that Panda did all right. It actually was one of the bigger debuts for the studio.
Even though the cartoon seemed a lock for first place, I thought Sony's (NYSE: SNE) You Don't Mess with the Zohan project would be a close second. At a $40 million estimated gross, it wasn't. I don't know if you can mess with Zohan or not, but you apparently can mess with Adam Sandler and best his star power. Viacom's (NYSE: VIA) Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull is still going strong in third place. It has crossed the $250 million level, and it is headed for $300 million. Time Warner's (NYSE: TWX) Sex and the City, however, has lost a great deal of thunder, dropping from first to fourth place in its second weekend at the multiplexes. It is just shy of the $100 million mark. Is Sex nothing more than an opening-weekend phenomenon? It seems that way, but we'll have to see how steep the drops are in subsequent weekends.
The Strangers, from General Electric's (NYSE: GE) Universal Pictures, dropped from third to fifth place in its second weekend, a rather predictable event for a horror movie. At a $37 million total gross so far, The Strangers won't go down as a huge triumph, but you've got to love the profit potential for this low-budget flick that succeeded in counterprogramming its way to summertime glory. Universal obviously thought the film's concept possessed a chance to score a $100 million total haul since it placed the movie against the big guns of this busy period, but that's okay, the try was worth it in this case.
Here are some highlights from this past week's 
Well, you can't win 'em all. I certainly found that out with 
I didn't think 
I didn't think Get Smart was going to come in at number one, but that's exactly what happened, according to 
I love summer, not only for the weather, but also for all the movies making their way to the multiplexes. According to this article at 
The weekend domestic box-office results weren't too shocking. I pretty much knew that 
Does GM deserve a taxpayer bailout?
Boeing could lose $3.5 billion per month if machinists strike
Cramer on BloggingStocks: Dell loses its Street cred once again 
