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Transportation issues will be critical to the health of 21st century U.S. economy

Given the smorgasbord of economic demands and concerns -- domestic and foreign -- likely to face the new U.S. president, investors (and taxpayers) can justifiably ask 'Where's all the money going to come from to pay for these programs?'

Legitimate question, but one, for now, we'll let the political process sort out. (Current Gallup Daily Tracking Poll as of August 6, 2008, for the U.S. presidential election: Obama, 46%, McCain, 44%.)

Electing U.S. Sen. Barack Obama, D-Illinois, or U.S. Sen. John McCain, R-Arizona, will produce different programs and revenue priorities, due to the parties' different sources of power, but the argument forwarded here is that -- regardless of who becomes the new president -- the office holder should address transportation in a comprehensive way. Here are the major concern areas:
  • Mass transit: We're early into the $4 gas era, of course, but initial U.S. Department of Transportation data indicates Americans are driving less and using mass transit more. The trouble is, many mass transit systems (rail, commuter rail, subway, bus) need to be expanded/upgraded to handle the increased ridership. Bigger, better mass transit systems will save the United States hundreds of billions of dollars in oil costs, not to mention the environmental benefits.

Continue reading Transportation issues will be critical to the health of 21st century U.S. economy

High gas prices mean Americans likely to prefer homes closer to work

If one scrolls back into American history, one can detect a clear pattern of cycles or eras: periods of considerable economic expansion, followed by periods of less economic expansion. Periods of extensive public policy activity, followed by periods of less public policy activity. Periods of extensive suburban sprawl, followed by periods of less development.

As more and more Americans entertain the possibility that $4 per gallon gasoline, may, in the long-term, represent a price floor rather than a ceiling, one can detect the rumbles of a shift in housing preferences, so says economist Glen Langan.

"The 3-bedroom house with a back yard is still a goal. That's part of the American dream. The house with a yard 30 or 40 miles from work, is not," Langan said.

Case in point: the Denver metropolitan area. Suburban and exurban home prices in formerly preferred suburbs, are dropping more than in areas closer to the city center, The New York Times reported.

Denver will hardly be the only city affected, Langan said. "Many cities that experienced a 'long-commute' boom or an exurbia boom during the low gas price area are vulnerable," Langan said. "It's the 30-mile commute re-think." Another example of a city likely to be hit hard is Atlanta.

Continue reading High gas prices mean Americans likely to prefer homes closer to work

High energy cost era suggests major changes ahead for the United States

That the arrival of $4 per gallon gasoline has already propelled changes in consumer and corporate behavior would not be a revelation to most investors / readers.

Still, a prudent tack for investors -- or heads of households/husbands/wives, for that matter -- is to look beyond the short-term conditions and try to gauge longer-term trends -- trends that may uncover investment opportunities.
Short-term, oil is likely to correct, many economists agree. Oil at one-hundred-twenty-five bucks per barrel is well above what many economists and analysts believe is a price capable of sustaining adequate U.S. and global economic growth. Speculators have pushed oil higher than what it should sell for based on fundamentals, and a pull-back is likely in the quarters ahead. That will take some pressure off gasoline, diesel and heating oil prices.

But what about long-term? Short-term, gasoline prices should moderate, but is $4 gasoline a high point? Probably not, if current global oil consumption trends continue. What's more likely? Additional, steady rises in gasoline, diesel and heating oil prices in the years ahead, particularly if the U.S. economy shows signs of a recovery later in 2008.

Continue reading High energy cost era suggests major changes ahead for the United States

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Last updated: November 10, 2009: 09:40 PM

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