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Starbucks: The next McDonald's

I'll admit the headline is a bit deceptive. On one hand McDonald's (NYSE: MCD) has seen a resurgence in its business and frankly, the shares have done very well. In fact since McDonald's went through its own set of problems five years ago, the stock has since tripled in value.

The parallels between Starbucks (NASDAQ: SBUX) and McDonald's are very eerie. Starbucks has hit the proverbial wall after a successful ride from 1992 to 2007 as one of the premier GameChanger stocks around. Starbucks, like McDonald's over-expanded its store base in the United States and began to cannibalize its own revenues. Starbucks, like McDonald's, lost its principle focus and did not tend to 'what got them there".

In late 2002 McDonald's stock had just finished a 4 year run of losing 70% of its value. The company was becoming a hodgepodge of different menu items, culminating with the disastrous release of the McLean Deluxe, which was not even all beef! Advertising and marketing programs were a mish-mash of geographical themes yielding no consistency whatsoever. McDonald's even posted, for the first time in its illustrious history, an operating loss in 2002, and experienced negative same store sales for the first time, as well.

Then CEO Jim Cantalupo said enough was enough. McDonald's closed 700 unproductive stores (sound familiar?) and re-focused its menu and advertising campaign.

Continue reading Starbucks: The next McDonald's

Option Update: Starbucks volatility flat into 600 store closings

Starbucks (NASDAQ: SBUX) indicated plans to close 600 unprofitable domestic stores and incur pre-tax charges of $328-$348 million, including asset write-downs of $200 million.

Deutsche Bank says: "With US consumers still reeling and McDonalds (NYSE: MCD) on the cusp of a nationwide specialty coffee rollout, it is too early to call a bottom on fundamentals – maintain Hold."

SBUX July option implied volatility of 42 is near its 26-week average of 39 according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional price movement.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Manitowoc to pay $2.7 billion for Enodis

Enodis plc, which got its start in 1910, is a global supplier of food and beverage equipment. Actually, it's been a tasty company for several suitors.

And now Enodis will have a new owner: Manitowoc (NYSE: MTW). The company outbid Illinois Tool Works Inc (NYSE: ITW) and has agreed to pay $2.7 billion for the firm.

Enodis has a strong global footprint, assembling a large portfolio of quality brands, such as Delfield, Frymaster, Garland, Ice-o-matic, Scotsman and so on. What's more, the company has top-notch clients like Burger King (NYSE: BKC) and McDonald's (NYSE: MCD).

However, on its face, Enodis looks like a mature company, with little growth ahead of it. But the fact remains that the company is poised nicely for opportunities in emerging markets, especially in Asia.

Even so, Manitowoc is certainly paying a premium for Enodis. Perhaps that's why Wall Street is a bit concerned, as Manitowoc's stock has gone from $44.75 to $30.83 since April.

Tom Taulli is the author of various books, including The Complete M&A Handbook and The Edgar Online Guide to Decoding Financial Statements. He also operates MergerBook.com.

The next McDonald's is Chipotle Mexican Grill

This post is part of my series featuring established companies and the smaller, more aggressive or innovative rivals that may eventually succeed them.

The most impressive game-changer story in the fast food industry over the past 50 years is indisputably McDonald's (NYSE: MCD). Founder Ray Kroc was a visionary and pioneer in serving customers hot fast food at a reasonable price. Thirty thousand units later, McDonald's is still a growth story. But the better growth story is Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE: CMG), so much so, in fact, that McDonald's was an early investor in Chipotle! (McDonald's no longer owns shares of Chipotle.)

McDonald's went through some execution issues in the mid-1990s through 2003. The fast food industry was taking some hits from nutritionists, and the quality of food was suspect. McDonald's re-tooled its entire operation from store front to menu offerings. The standard hamburgers and those delicious french fries are still on the menu, but McDonald's has added a variety of salads, wraps and other healthier options. In the past five years the stock has nearly tripled in value, validating McDonald's make-over.

Chipotle, founded in 1993, has not had to re-tool or redefine itself. The freshest of ingredients, naturally raised poultry and beef are highlights of the limited, but superb menu. Chipotle is a favorite of almost every demographic group, from teenagers to the elderly. Chipotle has succeeded in offering the finest fresh Mexican food, but not at the cheapest price. The average ticket at Chipotle comes in near $9. The company recently raised prices at different levels depending on geography. Sales have not slowed a bit in spite of the price increases.

Continue reading The next McDonald's is Chipotle Mexican Grill

Kobe makes 'Final Four' with BUD, ETFC, GM & MCD - NBA still in business

Kobe Bryant and Derek Fisher with refereeYesterday could have been the end of the NBA season, but the Los Angeles Lakers forced a game six in Boston -- not so much by winning; more by having a "refuse to lose" finish that they could not muster before. I am quite sure David Stern is fine with that outcome. ESPN, and ABC television owned by Walt Disney (NYSE: DIS) must be ecstatic. The NBA officials will earn another paycheck, and the sponsors? They are praying for a game seven for sure!

Yesterday, prior to the game, I posted Sunday Funnies: Lakers/Celtics -- NBA business success, and dedicated much of the word flow to all the clamoring about NBA officiating and reasons why the game had issues. Today is all the about the cash.

While the Super Bowl is the hugest of events, an NBA Finals is a saga with twists and turns, and this one so far has had many. The Lakers face insurmountable odds of winning two games in Boston so they have been as much as counted out already.

Laker star and NBA Most Valuable Player Kobe Bryant has posed the most interesting perspective on the challenge his team faces that I can ever remember. He said, prior to the game, that since he did not go to college he viewed his situation like making the Elite Eight referring to Division I college basketball March Madness. He said, you just have to feel grateful you are there and know that you have to win three games to win the tournament.

Continue reading Kobe makes 'Final Four' with BUD, ETFC, GM & MCD - NBA still in business

Companies that vanished: Burger Chef could have been the big one

This post is part of a series on some of the most memorable companies that have disappeared.

It's hard to believe these days, but at one time Burger Chef was the number two fast-food burger chain in the United States, second only to McDonald's (NYSE: MCD). Its easy to forget as well that Burger Chef pioneered many of the things that its rivals became known for, including flame-broiled burgers, value combo meals, and a works bar that allowed customers to dress burgers their way.

Burger Chef had cartoon mascots, including the Burger Chef (voiced by Paul Winchell) and his sidekick Jeff, Count Fangburger, Burgerilla, Cackleburger and others. In the early 1970s, the company also offered a "Funmeal" with specially printed packaging and accompanying toys or puzzles. Burger Chef sued McDonald's after it introduced the Happy Meal in 1978, but ultimately lost.

Burger Chef offered a fish sandwich and fried apple or cherry pies. Some locations offered tale-side service, and others had windows that allowed customers to watch sandwiches being made. Burger Chef was also an early adopter of the media tie-in, with the Batman television series and the original Star Wars movie in the 1970s.

Continue reading Companies that vanished: Burger Chef could have been the big one

Tomatoes removed from shelves, just as they were getting yummy

Oh no, one of my favorite fruits in the world (yes, a tomato is a fruit) is being taken off the shelf for fear of salmonella contamination.

Three types of raw tomatoes -- red plum, red Roma and round red tomatoes -- grown in 17 states are voluntarily being pulled of the shelves and menus of McDonald's (NYSE: MCD), Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT), Burger King (NYSE: BKC), Kroger (NYSE: KR), Outback Steakhouse, Winn-Dixie (NYSE: WINN) and Taco Bell, among others. In fact, "McDonald's has stopped serving sliced tomatoes on its sandwiches as a precaution, but will continue serving grape tomatoes in its salads because no problems have been linked to that variety."

Similarly, Burger King, Yum Brands Inc. (NYSE: YUM) restaurants, Darden Restaurants (NYSE: DRI), and Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (NYSE: CMG) have also removed the contaminated brands from their menus across the U.S., and some, like Burger King, in Canada, Puerto Rico and some other Caribbean islands as well. Many left the non-contaminated brands on the menu.

Continue reading Tomatoes removed from shelves, just as they were getting yummy

Before the bell: AAPL, INTC, HPQ, GCI, DFS, MCD ...

Before the bell: Futures lower following Bernanke's inflation comments

After the 3G iPhone was finally announced Monday, with a price tag and a business model that could take the funky phone to the masses, Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) ended lower on some profit taking. But have no fear. Already this morning, Citigroup raised Apple's price target to $287 from $248 with a Buy rating, and Lehman raised it to $234 from $202, maintaining its Overweight rating. Despite the stock trading higher in European markets, it's still not showing signs of recovery in premarket trading in the US.

ThinkPanmure initiated Intel Corp. (NASDAQ: INTC) with a Buy, claiming it is gaining market share over rival Advanced Micro Devices (NYSE: AMD). The analyst also said Intel is gaining prominence in the server, desktop and notebook markets.

Hewlett-Packard Co. (NYSE: HPQ) updated its desktop and notebook computers. It introduced Tuesday in Berlin a new ultra-thin portable, the Voodoo Envy, to rival Apple's MacBook Air. H-P also added a new version of a touch-screen desktop PC and 16 notebooks for consumers and businesses.

Continue reading Before the bell: AAPL, INTC, HPQ, GCI, DFS, MCD ...

McDonald's (MCD) rises on May same store sales

MCD logoMcDonald's (NYSE: MCD) shares are trading higher after the company reported that May same-store sales rose 7.7%. Overseas sales were strongest, but US sales rose by 4.3%, while analysts expected only 1%. The company claims its low prices actually boosted sales during the economic slowdown as people flocked to cheaper alternatives. If you think that the stock won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on MCD.

After hitting a one-year low of $46.64 in August, the stock hit a one-year high of $63.69 in December. MCD opened this morning at $58.37. So far today the stock has hit a low of $58.00 and a high of $59.56. As of 12:45, MCD is trading at $59.19, up $2.24 (3.93%). The chart for MCD looks bullish but deteriorating, while S&P gives the stock a positive 4 STARS (out of 5) buy rating.

For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a September bull-put credit spread below the $50 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. This particular trade will make an 8.7% return in just three and a half months as long as MCD is above $50 at September expiration. McDonald's would have to fall by more than 15% before we would start to lose money.

MCD hasn't been below $50 since September and has shown support around $58 recently. This trade could be risky if the company's earnings (due out in late July or early August) disappoint, but even if that happens, this position could be protected by the support the stock might find at its 200 day moving average, which is currently around $57 and rising.

Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer. At publication time, Brent controls a bullish hedged position in MCD.

Simplot: From rags to fries and even microchips

Back in the early 1920s, J.R. Simplot started a business in Declo, Idaho -- he raised hogs. He was 14-years old. Ultimately, he went on to create the Simplot Company, which is now a multi-billion dollar enterprise.

Yesterday, Simplot died of natural causes; he was 99.

He lived his life to the fullest and it seemed he had limitless energy. During World War II, the Simplot Company was the largest seller of potatoes in the U.S. and, of course, a major supplier to the troops.

Simplot also was incredibly innovative. For example, when there was a fertilizer shortage in WW II, he created his own facility to deal with the problem. Then, by the late 1940s, he helped to invent frozen french fries and would help usher in the fast-food revolution. By 1967, he made a hand-shake deal with Ray Kroc, the founder of McDonald's (NYSE: MCD), to supply french fries.

Even though he retired in the early 1970s, Simplot remained busy. He provided startup capital to computer chip maker Micron Technology (NYSE: MU). The company now has a market value of $6.2 billion.

Despite all the success, Simplot remained humble and thrifty – just like another billionaire, Warren Buffett. Simplot would fly commercial, had an ordinary car and wore the same pair of glasses for thirty years. And of course, his favorite restaurant was McDonald's.

Tom Taulli is the author of various books, including The Complete M&A Handbook and The Edgar Online Guide to Decoding Financial Statements. He also operates MergerBook.com.

McDonald's (MCD) eats some food costs

Call it one of the smartest decisions in food retail this year. McDonald's (NYSE: MCD) will not pass on the cost of most food commodities to its customers. It will keep most prices on its menu where they are today.

According to Reuters, McDonald's "is willing to absorb some of the higher costs for ingredients such as oil, meat and dairy to promote customer loyalty," Chief Executive Jim Skinner said. The company won't let upward pressure on its products hurt its business.

Some may see the program as short-sighted, a move that will erode margins and hurt earnings for the next couple of quarters or more. But McDonald's has the financial strength to support the move. It may be a way for the chain to pick up market share as inflation takes a toll on its competitors. If it raises prices, McDonald's will simply look more attractive.

Look for McDonald's same-store sales to be better than the competition. It is giving consumers a real reason to stop by.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor of 247wallst.com and author of the Ten Stocks Under $10 newsletter.

Honestly, who would pay this much for a burger?

I always love news items like this. According to Reuters, there exists a $175 hamburger. You can find it in New York at a place called The Wall Street Burger Shoppe. Presumably, big traders would be the only ones able to afford it.

Well, for those who would even think to complain about the prices at McDonald's (NYSE: MCD), Burger King (NYSE: BKC) and Wendy's (NYSE: WEN), this $175 burger should put things in perspective. It doesn't sell a lot; the news piece states that the place moves about two dozen in any given thirty-day period. The Wall Street Burger Shoppe mostly sells $4 burgers.

But, really, this $175 burger is nothing more than genius marketing. The owners are obviously not under any illusion whatsoever that they can make a great return on capital by investing in such a pricey offering. All it's meant to do is to bring publicity to the establishment. It's obviously worked. As a way of branding, this goofy pricing scheme immediately differentiates the restaurant's brand from others. In fact, it was the stated intent of the owners to have the most expensive burger in the area. It's also a great differentiator between personalities. I mean, I think you can tell a lot about a person who is actually willing to buy this thing (and, you can certainly infer a lot about the person's net worth).

Continue reading Honestly, who would pay this much for a burger?

McDonald's CEO whines about menu disclosure laws

McDonald's (NYSE: MCD) chief executive cry baby Jim Skinner told attendees at the National Restaurant Association's annual convention that the increasing popularity of state regulations requiring fast food chains to disclose calories counts are "redundant and flawed" and referred to the activists pushing for these measures as "CAVE people - Citizens Against Virtually Everything."

With all due respect to Mr. Skinner, he couldn't be more wrong or disingenuous.

Posting calorie counts on menus will give consumers greater and more convenient to nutritional information than they've ever had before. The reason McDonald's opposes these laws is that they know that if people knew what they were eating, many would eat less and save some of the money for the respirator.

The fact that Mr. Skinner is so worried about these laws that cities including New York have adopted demonstrates that they aren't redundant. If they were, there would be nothing to worry about!

It's a shame when the CEO of one of America's largest companies takes a stand against providing consumers with more information in a more convenient format.

Analyst downgrades: HBC, WPPGY and AWRE

MOST NOTEWORTHY: HSBC Holdings, WPP Group and Aware were today's noteworthy downgrades:
  • Morgan Stanley downgraded HSBC Holdings (NYSE: HBC) to Underweight from Equal Weight to reflect expected losses at the company's U.S. unit.
  • ABN Amro cut WPP Group (NASDAQ: WPPGY) to Hold from Buy as they expect slowing top-line growth from stagnant marketing budgets.
  • Merriman downgraded shares of Aware (NASDAQ: AWRE) to Neutral from Buy after DSL royalty revenue declined for a third straight quarter.
OTHER DOWNGRADES:

McDonald's same-store sales show that the clown still has clout

McDonald's (NYSE: MCD) announced its same-store sales results for the month of April Thursday, and the data indicate a healthy fast-food business ("healthy fast food" -- isn't that an oxymoron?).

Global comps as a whole increased 5%. Comps for European locations increased 6.3%, and the Asia/Pacific/Middle East/Africa segment saw a 7.8% rise in same-store sales. McDonald's restaurants in the States increased an anemic 2%. The weak domestic sales really need to be addressed so that they can pull more weight and add to the cool story that is McDonald's.

The stock has been a pretty decent performer over the last several months, rising over 6% over the three-month timeframe, and over the one-month period, it is up over 7%. And the longer-period returns from the past are even more impressive. Imagine how McDonald's stock would perform if management figured out how to get people to visit the U.S.'s Golden Arches more often. I suppose April's performance should be praised since March saw a decline in U.S. comps, as this article makes plain, but that depreciation was the first one in five years, and that says to me that McDonald's needs to be careful.

It's all about the marketing, of course. There are a lot of choices out there -- Burger King (NYSE: BKC), Wendy's (NYSE: WEN) and Yum! Brands (NYSE: YUM) -- so I think promotion of the brand is key. Some will disagree and say that menus and pricing are the big drivers -- they are important, don't get me wrong, but perhaps McDonald's needs to take a cue from Burger King and its campaign with the creepy-king thing -- those commercials are clever. Still, if this comps reports says anything, it says that you shouldn't count the clown out -- McDonald's is a blue-chip stock that is near a 52-week high, and not only is it a great long-term/core holding, but it's also quite possibly an interesting shorter-term idea as well.

Disclosure: I don't own shares in any company mentioned here; positions can change at any time.

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Last updated: July 06, 2008: 08:05 AM

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