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Tell-tale stat: U.S. Treasury's Geithner rent out, not sell, Larchmont, N.Y. home

That the United States is experiencing some of the most difficult housing market conditions in decades would not be a revelation to many investors.

Further, it's a housing slump that's touched every quartile of society – no regions or price categories have been exempt: from high-end mansions to starter Cape Cod-style homes. Not even the U.S. Secretary of the Treasury has been exempt.

Continue reading Tell-tale stat: U.S. Treasury's Geithner rent out, not sell, Larchmont, N.Y. home

U.S. housing sector update: Still fence-sitters' market

Bloomberg director and columnist Jane Bryant Quinn wants to let investors and readers know that the much-criticized (and justifiably so) mortgage sector has not entirely disappeared.

Further, I don't think she'd mind if I said Ms. Quinn, a leading financial writer for many years, has seen a recession or two: she's seen the disasters arrive, and seen them leave. The United States manages to muddle through every time. (Granted, this crisis calls for heavy-duty muddling through.)

Continue reading U.S. housing sector update: Still fence-sitters' market

Home prices plunge record 18.5% in the past year, Case-Shiller says

Once again, there's been little change in the slump that's plagued the U.S. housing sector and economy for more than two years.

Home prices in the United States in 20 cities declined at the fastest pace ever in the past year, weighed down by foreclosures, and bank efforts to unload that housing.

Home prices in a 20-city sample plunged a record 18.5% in December 2008, on a year-over-year basis in, according to the S&P / Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price survey. The index has fallen every month since January 2007. Home prices fell 18.2% in November, 18% in October, 17.4% in September, and 16.6% in August, each on a year-over-year basis.

Continue reading Home prices plunge record 18.5% in the past year, Case-Shiller says

Ray of Light: U.S. Senate adds $15,000 homebuyer tax credit to stimulus bill

Now we're talking fiscal stimulus. In a move to provide stimulus and economic incentives to a sector that, arguably, needs them the most, the U.S. Senate has added to the fiscal stimulus package a tax credit for up to $15,000 for homebuyers, The New York Times reported.

Economists and public policy analysts caution that the Senate has yet to vote on the stimulus bill, and the legislation, if approved, would then have to be reconciled, via a conference committee, with the stimulus package passed by the House. Nevertheless, economist Peter Dawson still likes the direction of the February wind in Washington.

Continue reading Ray of Light: U.S. Senate adds $15,000 homebuyer tax credit to stimulus bill

Tell-tale stat: Sales of $1 million homes plunge 43% in California in 2008

Is the U.S. housing sector approaching a bottom? Many economists and real estate analysts says it's too soon to talk in terms of 'a bottom' - - a process that will take months, if not quarters.

Still, one stat that indicates a bottom may be on the horizon: high-end home sales in California.

Sales of homes worth at least $1 million plummeted 42.5% in 2008 to 24,436, down from 42,506 in 2007, according to research compiled by DataQuick.

In 2008, one in 16 California homes sold for $1 million or more; in 2007, one in nine had a price at / above $1 million.

Continue reading Tell-tale stat: Sales of $1 million homes plunge 43% in California in 2008

U.S. homeowners lost $3.3 trillion in home value in 2008

Just call it a record year for U.S. homeowners -- a distinction they don't want to repeat.

U.S. homeowners lost an astounding $3.3 trillion in home value in 2008, as the worst slump in the residential real estate segment intensified amid the U.S. recession, Zillow.com announced Tuesday. Further, homeowners lost $1.4 trillion in value in Q4 2008. In 2007, homeowners lost $1.3 trillion in value.

Further, the median home price based on data collected by Zillow.com plummeted 11.6% to $192,119 in 2008. Meanwhile, the percent of homeowners with negative equity -- home values less than their amount owed -- jumped to 17.6% in Q4 2008 from 14.3% in Q3 2008.

Continue reading U.S. homeowners lost $3.3 trillion in home value in 2008

Good time to buy a house? Yes, if you plan to live there for five years

The U.S. housing sector has just experienced its worst year, from price and inventory standpoints, in more than two decades. Moreover, 2008 followed a poor housing sales year in 2007.

Various real estate stakeholders are filling the airwaves with ads that pitch, 'Now is a good time to consider buying a home,' 'Housing affordability is improving' and 'On average, a residential home appreciates in value over 10 years.'

But sans the promotional hype and real estate sales stakeholder-based ads, is now a good time to buy a house in the United States?

Continue reading Good time to buy a house? Yes, if you plan to live there for five years

Home prices plunge record 18.2% in the past year, Case-Shiller says

Once again, there's little change in the U.S. housing market's downward trend.

Home prices in the United States in 20 cities declined at the fastest pace ever in the past year, weighed down by foreclosures, and slack demand from potential home buyers.

Home prices in a 20-city sample plunged a record 18.2% in November 2008, on a year-over-year basis in, according to the S&P / Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price survey (pdf). The index has fallen every month since January 2007. Home prices fell 18% in October, 17.4% in September, and 16.6% in August, each on a year-over-year basis.

Continue reading Home prices plunge record 18.2% in the past year, Case-Shiller says

Existing home sales rise, but median price falls

Just call the December 2008 existing home sales data an upside / downside report: On the upside, sales rose 6.5% to a seasonally-adjusted annualized rate of 4.74 million units, the National Association of Realtors announced Monday. On the downside, the median sales priced plunged a record 15.3% compared to a year ago to $175,400.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had expected December 2008 existing home sales to total a 4.4-million-unit annualized rate.

Further, for all of 2008, median prices declined 9.3% to their lowest level since 2004. Also in 2008, existing home sales totaled 4.91 million units, a 13.1% drop from 5.65 million units sold in 2007. The 4.91 million 2008 total is also the lowest since 4.37 million units were sold in 1997.

One unqualified bright spot: home inventories, which declined 11.7% to 3.68 million units, or about a 9.3-month supply at current sales rates, down from an 11.2-month supply in November 2008.

Housing Sector / Economic Analysis: The recession -- and the financial crisis, for that matter -- began in housing; perhaps the recovery will begin there, as well. Prices continue to decline, but the decrease in existing home inventories is a positive: if inventories continue to decline in the coming months, that could signal better days ahead in construction. Inventories of both existing and new homes must decline further before home builders can consider increasing construction. Stay tuned.

Tell-tale stat: Greenwich, CT home prices drop most in 30 years

What's another high-end stat, along with a decline in sales of apartments in the heart of New York City - - Manhattan - - and declining U.S. BMW sales, that doesn't bode well for the U.S. economy? A home price decline in posh and stately Greenwich, Connecticut.

Home prices in 2008 in Greenwich declined the most in three decades, and the number of homes plunged by more than a third, as the town's real estate began to show the effects of financial sector cutbacks, Bloomberg News reported, citing data compiled Prudential Connecticut Realty.

Greenwich's 2008 median home price dropped 7% to $1.95 million - - the largest percentage decline since 1977 - - with single family homes sales plummeting to 460 from 726, Prudential said, Bloomberg reported.

Tony Greenwich sets the tone

With its large homes, ample land, quaint shoreline, and short, 50-minute train commute to Manhattan, Greenwich, for generations, has been a preferred suburb of executives of some the world largest multinational corporations who work in New York City. More recently, Greenwich has become the de-facto 'hedge fund capital of America.'

Continue reading Tell-tale stat: Greenwich, CT home prices drop most in 30 years

Tell-tale stat: Manhattan apartment sales decline for 4th straight quarter

It looks like the nation's last hold-out -- the last bastion of the housing bubble, if you will -- has finally started to burst. Or at least deflate.

Manhattan, which remains, despite the nation's decade of policy errors, the capital of the world, registered its fourth straight quarterly decline in apartment sales in Q4 2008, according to research compiled by Prudential Douglas Elliman Real Estate (pdf).

Transactions in Q4 2008 fell 9.4% from a year ago to 2,282, Prudential said. Further, while the median price of all units (new and existing) rose 5.9% to $900,000, the median price for re-sale properties fell 3.6% to $732,500. Luxury unit prices fell 3.9% to $4.13 million

Just as telling: inventories have soared. Listings increased 39.3% to 9,081 units compared to a year ago, with the average days a listing was on the market before sale rising to 159 days, from 131 days a year ago.

Driven by record investment banking / financial sector salaries and bonuses, and by creative mortgage forms, New York City's real estate market, specifically the borough of Manhattan, experienced "a 5-year period of clearly unsustainable price gains," so says economist Peter Dawson. Manhattan, he says, was able to hold on in 2007 as the housing slump devastated prices in the U.S., particularly in the California, Southwest U.S., and Florida markets, but the financial crisis that depleted New York's investment banking employee ranks is finally showing up in Manhattan's residential real estate market, he said.

Continue reading Tell-tale stat: Manhattan apartment sales decline for 4th straight quarter

Home prices nosedive a record 18% in the past year, Case-Shiller says

The song remains the same regarding the U.S. housing sector.

Home prices in the United States in 20 cities declined at the fastest pace ever, weighed down by foreclosures and bank efforts to unload that extra housing.

Home prices in a 20-city sample plunged a record 18.0% in October, on a year-over-year basis, according to the S&P / Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price survey (pdf). The index has fallen every month since January 2007. Home prices fell 17.4% in September, and 16.6% in August, each on a year-over-year basis.

All 20 cities drop

Also, every city in the 20-city index registered a decrease in October, on a year-over-year basis.

Further, prices in a 10-city survey plummeted a record 19.1% on a year-over-year basis.

Continue reading Home prices nosedive a record 18% in the past year, Case-Shiller says

Median U.S. existing home price plunges 13% to $181,300 in past year

One holiday wish by investors -- and business executives -- should be for a U.S. economic recovery, starting with the housing sector.

That's because the housing sector showed few signs of renewal in November, as the median sales price of existing homes plummeted 13.2% to $181,300 on a year-over-year basis, the National Association of Realtors announced Tuesday. In November 2007, the median price was $208,800.

By region, the median existing home price in November dropped 0.1% in the Northeast to $257,700, decreased 25.5% in the West to $242,500, dropped 10.6% in the South to $154,500, and declined 11.2% in the Midwest to $142,200.

Meanwhile, sales of existing homes sank 8.6% in November to a 4.49-million-unit annualized rate. Sales have declined 10.6% on a year-over-year basis.

Equally distressing, the number of existing homes on the market in November rose to an 11.2-month supply at the current sales rate, up from a 10.3-month supply in October. A typical healthy market has a three to five month supply.

Home prices are 'not delightful'

Economist Peter Dawson said the weather outside is frightful, and home prices are not delightful.

Continue reading Median U.S. existing home price plunges 13% to $181,300 in past year

Should Congress pass a tax deduction for down payments for home buyers?

Attentive husband and father that he is, economist Peter Dawson frequently goes for neighborhood walks with his two grade-school daughters, Laurie and Katie. Max, the family's dog, usually accompanies them. It's great exercise for him and the kids, he says, and Max also has a great time.

A common vista during their walks these days in his delightful suburb about an hour train ride north of New York City?

"Lots and lots of 'For Sale' signs," Dawson said. "I've never seen so many."

Housing: buyers' market, no question

Perhaps neither have the American people. Depending on the survey, and whether you're evaluating new homes or existing homes, there's a 9-11 month supply of homes on the market, nationally, Dawson said. Typically, each category would have a 3-5 supply of homes for sale, in a healthy housing market, he said.

"The current debate in Washington is breaking down to the best way to stimulate the economy, either demand side tactics or supply side tactics. I say we have to use 'both sides' tactics," Dawson said.

Continue reading Should Congress pass a tax deduction for down payments for home buyers?

Are U.S. homes undervalued?

Are U.S. homes undervalued? A new survey suggests they are, but don't confuse that fact with 'a good time to buy a home.'

U.S. home prices fell at a 6.9% annual pace in Q3, and are down 6.5% from their 2007 peak, with prices falling in 241 of 330 metropolitan markets, a survey by IHS Global Insight shows, marketwatch.com reported. Further, compared to their long-term fundamental values, U.S. homes are now 3.8% undervalued.

Undervalued homes? Yes, but...

Undervalued, yes. But does undervalued mean U.S. home prices are not likely to fall further? BloggingStocks asked economist Peter Dawson for an assessment.

"Home prices most certainly can fall further, and will continue to do so in most markets over the next year," Dawson said. "Potential home buyers have to keep in mind that just because a home in, say, Miami was $725,000 last year and is priced at $600,000 this year, and is 'undervalued,' that doesn't mean it can't fall to $500,000 or less by next year. And the price trend in most markets remains down. Home buyers need to keep sight of that."

Continue reading Are U.S. homes undervalued?

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Last updated: November 22, 2009: 05:12 AM

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