BloggingStocks http://www.bloggingstocks.com BloggingStocks http://www.blogsmithmedia.com/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/media/feedlogo.gif BloggingStocks http://www.bloggingstocks.com en-us Copyright 2012 Weblogs, Inc. The contents of this feed are available for non-commercial use only. Blogsmith http://www.blogsmith.com/<![CDATA[Tell-tale stat: U.S. Treasury's Geithner rent out, not sell, Larchmont, N.Y. home]]>http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2009/06/15/tell-tale-stat-u-s-treasurys-geithner-rent-out-not-sell-lar/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2009/06/15/tell-tale-stat-u-s-treasurys-geithner-rent-out-not-sell-lar/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2009/06/15/tell-tale-stat-u-s-treasurys-geithner-rent-out-not-sell-lar/#commentsFiled under: ,

That the United States is experiencing some of the most difficult housing market conditions in decades would not be a revelation to many investors.

Further, it's a housing slump that's touched every quartile of society - no regions or price categories have been exempt: from high-end mansions to starter Cape Cod-style homes. Not even the U.S. Secretary of the Treasury has been exempt.

Continue reading Tell-tale stat: U.S. Treasury's Geithner rent out, not sell, Larchmont, N.Y. home

Tell-tale stat: U.S. Treasury's Geithner rent out, not sell, Larchmont, N.Y. home originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 15 Jun 2009 18:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>Geithnermedian home pricesMon, 15 Jun 2009 18:00:00 EST<![CDATA[U.S. housing sector update: Still fence-sitters' market]]>http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2009/03/17/u-s-housing-sector-update-still-fence-sitters-market/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2009/03/17/u-s-housing-sector-update-still-fence-sitters-market/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2009/03/17/u-s-housing-sector-update-still-fence-sitters-market/#commentsFiled under: ,

Bloomberg director and columnist Jane Bryant Quinn wants to let investors and readers know that the much-criticized (and justifiably so) mortgage sector has not entirely disappeared.

Further, I don't think she'd mind if I said Ms. Quinn, a leading financial writer for many years, has seen a recession or two: she's seen the disasters arrive, and seen them leave. The United States manages to muddle through every time. (Granted, this crisis calls for heavy-duty muddling through.)

Continue reading U.S. housing sector update: Still fence-sitters' market

U.S. housing sector update: Still fence-sitters' market originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 17 Mar 2009 13:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>featuredinterest ratesJane Bryant Quinnmedian home pricesmortgagesTue, 17 Mar 2009 13:00:00 EST<![CDATA[Home prices plunge record 18.5% in the past year, Case-Shiller says]]>http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2009/02/24/home-prices-plunge-record-18-5-in-the-past-year-case-shiller-s/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2009/02/24/home-prices-plunge-record-18-5-in-the-past-year-case-shiller-s/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2009/02/24/home-prices-plunge-record-18-5-in-the-past-year-case-shiller-s/#commentsFiled under: ,

Once again, there's been little change in the slump that's plagued the U.S. housing sector and economy for more than two years.

Home prices in the United States in 20 cities declined at the fastest pace ever in the past year, weighed down by foreclosures, and bank efforts to unload that housing.

Home prices in a 20-city sample plunged a record 18.5% in December 2008, on a year-over-year basis in, according to the S&P / Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price survey. The index has fallen every month since January 2007. Home prices fell 18.2% in November, 18% in October, 17.4% in September, and 16.6% in August, each on a year-over-year basis.

Continue reading Home prices plunge record 18.5% in the past year, Case-Shiller says

Home prices plunge record 18.5% in the past year, Case-Shiller says originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 24 Feb 2009 15:07:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>Case-Shillerhome priceshousinginthenewsmedian home pricesTue, 24 Feb 2009 15:07:00 EST<![CDATA[Ray of Light: U.S. Senate adds $15,000 homebuyer tax credit to stimulus bill ]]>http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2009/02/05/ray-of-light-u-s-senate-adds-15-000-homebuyer-tax-credit-to-s/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2009/02/05/ray-of-light-u-s-senate-adds-15-000-homebuyer-tax-credit-to-s/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2009/02/05/ray-of-light-u-s-senate-adds-15-000-homebuyer-tax-credit-to-s/#commentsFiled under: ,

Now we're talking fiscal stimulus. In a move to provide stimulus and economic incentives to a sector that, arguably, needs them the most, the U.S. Senate has added to the fiscal stimulus package a tax credit for up to $15,000 for homebuyers, The New York Times reported.

Economists and public policy analysts caution that the Senate has yet to vote on the stimulus bill, and the legislation, if approved, would then have to be reconciled, via a conference committee, with the stimulus package passed by the House. Nevertheless, economist Peter Dawson still likes the direction of the February wind in Washington.

Continue reading Ray of Light: U.S. Senate adds $15,000 homebuyer tax credit to stimulus bill

Ray of Light: U.S. Senate adds $15,000 homebuyer tax credit to stimulus bill originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 05 Feb 2009 16:50:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>Democratsfiscal stimulus packagegdphomebuyer tax credithousing sectormedian home pricesObama AdministrationRepublicansU.S. economyU.S. SenateThu, 05 Feb 2009 16:50:00 EST<![CDATA[Tell-tale stat: Sales of $1 million homes plunge 43% in California in 2008 ]]>http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2009/02/05/tell-tale-stat-sales-of-1-million-homes-plunge-43-in-californ/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2009/02/05/tell-tale-stat-sales-of-1-million-homes-plunge-43-in-californ/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2009/02/05/tell-tale-stat-sales-of-1-million-homes-plunge-43-in-californ/#commentsFiled under: , ,

Is the U.S. housing sector approaching a bottom? Many economists and real estate analysts says it's too soon to talk in terms of 'a bottom' - - a process that will take months, if not quarters.

Still, one stat that indicates a bottom may be on the horizon: high-end home sales in California.

Sales of homes worth at least $1 million plummeted 42.5% in 2008 to 24,436, down from 42,506 in 2007, according to research compiled by DataQuick.

In 2008, one in 16 California homes sold for $1 million or more; in 2007, one in nine had a price at / above $1 million.

Continue reading Tell-tale stat: Sales of $1 million homes plunge 43% in California in 2008

Tell-tale stat: Sales of $1 million homes plunge 43% in California in 2008 originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 05 Feb 2009 11:25:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>Californiafeaturedinventoriesmedian home pricesThu, 05 Feb 2009 11:25:00 EST<![CDATA[U.S. homeowners lost $3.3 trillion in home value in 2008 ]]>http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2009/02/03/u-s-homeowners-lost-3-3-trillion-in-home-value-in-2008/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2009/02/03/u-s-homeowners-lost-3-3-trillion-in-home-value-in-2008/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2009/02/03/u-s-homeowners-lost-3-3-trillion-in-home-value-in-2008/#commentsFiled under: , , ,

Just call it a record year for U.S. homeowners -- a distinction they don't want to repeat.

U.S. homeowners lost an astounding $3.3 trillion in home value in 2008, as the worst slump in the residential real estate segment intensified amid the U.S. recession, Zillow.com announced Tuesday. Further, homeowners lost $1.4 trillion in value in Q4 2008. In 2007, homeowners lost $1.3 trillion in value.

Further, the median home price based on data collected by Zillow.com plummeted 11.6% to $192,119 in 2008. Meanwhile, the percent of homeowners with negative equity -- home values less than their amount owed -- jumped to 17.6% in Q4 2008 from 14.3% in Q3 2008.

Continue reading U.S. homeowners lost $3.3 trillion in home value in 2008

U.S. homeowners lost $3.3 trillion in home value in 2008 originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 03 Feb 2009 10:15:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>home equityHomeEquityinthenewsmedian home pricesZillow.comTue, 03 Feb 2009 10:15:00 EST<![CDATA[Good time to buy a house? Yes, if you plan to live there for five years ]]>http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2009/02/02/good-time-to-buy-a-house-yes-if-you-plan-to-live-there-for-fiv/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2009/02/02/good-time-to-buy-a-house-yes-if-you-plan-to-live-there-for-fiv/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2009/02/02/good-time-to-buy-a-house-yes-if-you-plan-to-live-there-for-fiv/#commentsFiled under: , ,

The U.S. housing sector has just experienced its worst year, from price and inventory standpoints, in more than two decades. Moreover, 2008 followed a poor housing sales year in 2007.

Various real estate stakeholders are filling the airwaves with ads that pitch, 'Now is a good time to consider buying a home,' 'Housing affordability is improving' and 'On average, a residential home appreciates in value over 10 years.'

But sans the promotional hype and real estate sales stakeholder-based ads, is now a good time to buy a house in the United States?

Continue reading Good time to buy a house? Yes, if you plan to live there for five years

Good time to buy a house? Yes, if you plan to live there for five years originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 02 Feb 2009 12:12:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>featuredmedian home pricesNational Association of RealtorsMon, 02 Feb 2009 12:12:00 EST<![CDATA[Home prices plunge record 18.2% in the past year, Case-Shiller says]]>http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2009/01/27/home-prices-plunge-record-18-2-in-the-past-year-case-shiller-s/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2009/01/27/home-prices-plunge-record-18-2-in-the-past-year-case-shiller-s/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2009/01/27/home-prices-plunge-record-18-2-in-the-past-year-case-shiller-s/#commentsFiled under: , , ,

Once again, there's little change in the U.S. housing market's downward trend.

Home prices in the United States in 20 cities declined at the fastest pace ever in the past year, weighed down by foreclosures, and slack demand from potential home buyers.

Home prices in a 20-city sample plunged a record 18.2% in November 2008, on a year-over-year basis in, according to the S&P / Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price survey (pdf). The index has fallen every month since January 2007. Home prices fell 18% in October, 17.4% in September, and 16.6% in August, each on a year-over-year basis.

Continue reading Home prices plunge record 18.2% in the past year, Case-Shiller says

Home prices plunge record 18.2% in the past year, Case-Shiller says originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 27 Jan 2009 09:45:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>Case Shillerinthenewsmedian home pricesTue, 27 Jan 2009 09:45:00 EST<![CDATA[Existing home sales rise, but median price falls]]>http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2009/01/26/existing-home-sales-rise-but-median-price-falls-15-3-to-175-4/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2009/01/26/existing-home-sales-rise-but-median-price-falls-15-3-to-175-4/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2009/01/26/existing-home-sales-rise-but-median-price-falls-15-3-to-175-4/#commentsFiled under: , ,

Just call the December 2008 existing home sales data an upside / downside report: On the upside, sales rose 6.5% to a seasonally-adjusted annualized rate of 4.74 million units, the National Association of Realtors announced Monday. On the downside, the median sales priced plunged a record 15.3% compared to a year ago to $175,400.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had expected December 2008 existing home sales to total a 4.4-million-unit annualized rate.

Further, for all of 2008, median prices declined 9.3% to their lowest level since 2004. Also in 2008, existing home sales totaled 4.91 million units, a 13.1% drop from 5.65 million units sold in 2007. The 4.91 million 2008 total is also the lowest since 4.37 million units were sold in 1997.

One unqualified bright spot: home inventories, which declined 11.7% to 3.68 million units, or about a 9.3-month supply at current sales rates, down from an 11.2-month supply in November 2008.

Housing Sector / Economic Analysis: The recession -- and the financial crisis, for that matter -- began in housing; perhaps the recovery will begin there, as well. Prices continue to decline, but the decrease in existing home inventories is a positive: if inventories continue to decline in the coming months, that could signal better days ahead in construction. Inventories of both existing and new homes must decline further before home builders can consider increasing construction. Stay tuned.

Existing home sales rise, but median price falls originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 26 Jan 2009 10:40:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>existing home salesinthenewsinventoriesmedian home pricesNational Association of RealtorsMon, 26 Jan 2009 10:40:00 EST<![CDATA[Tell-tale stat: Greenwich, CT home prices drop most in 30 years]]>http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2009/01/21/tell-tale-stat-greenwich-ct-home-prices-drop-most-in-30-years/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2009/01/21/tell-tale-stat-greenwich-ct-home-prices-drop-most-in-30-years/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2009/01/21/tell-tale-stat-greenwich-ct-home-prices-drop-most-in-30-years/#commentsFiled under: , ,

What's another high-end stat, along with a decline in sales of apartments in the heart of New York City - - Manhattan - - and declining U.S. BMW sales, that doesn't bode well for the U.S. economy? A home price decline in posh and stately Greenwich, Connecticut.

Home prices in 2008 in Greenwich declined the most in three decades, and the number of homes plunged by more than a third, as the town's real estate began to show the effects of financial sector cutbacks, Bloomberg News reported, citing data compiled Prudential Connecticut Realty.

Greenwich's 2008 median home price dropped 7% to $1.95 million - - the largest percentage decline since 1977 - - with single family homes sales plummeting to 460 from 726, Prudential said, Bloomberg reported.

Tony Greenwich sets the tone

With its large homes, ample land, quaint shoreline, and short, 50-minute train commute to Manhattan, Greenwich, for generations, has been a preferred suburb of executives of some the world largest multinational corporations who work in New York City. More recently, Greenwich has become the de-facto 'hedge fund capital of America.'

Continue reading Tell-tale stat: Greenwich, CT home prices drop most in 30 years

Tell-tale stat: Greenwich, CT home prices drop most in 30 years originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 21 Jan 2009 14:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>Greenwichhedge fundsmedian home pricesWed, 21 Jan 2009 14:00:00 EST<![CDATA[Tell-tale stat: Manhattan apartment sales decline for 4th straight quarter]]>http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2009/01/06/tell-tale-stat-manhattan-apartment-sales-decline-for-4th-straig/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2009/01/06/tell-tale-stat-manhattan-apartment-sales-decline-for-4th-straig/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2009/01/06/tell-tale-stat-manhattan-apartment-sales-decline-for-4th-straig/#commentsFiled under: , ,

It looks like the nation's last hold-out -- the last bastion of the housing bubble, if you will -- has finally started to burst. Or at least deflate.

Manhattan, which remains, despite the nation's decade of policy errors, the capital of the world, registered its fourth straight quarterly decline in apartment sales in Q4 2008, according to research compiled by Prudential Douglas Elliman Real Estate (pdf).

Transactions in Q4 2008 fell 9.4% from a year ago to 2,282, Prudential said. Further, while the median price of all units (new and existing) rose 5.9% to $900,000, the median price for re-sale properties fell 3.6% to $732,500. Luxury unit prices fell 3.9% to $4.13 million

Just as telling: inventories have soared. Listings increased 39.3% to 9,081 units compared to a year ago, with the average days a listing was on the market before sale rising to 159 days, from 131 days a year ago.

Driven by record investment banking / financial sector salaries and bonuses, and by creative mortgage forms, New York City's real estate market, specifically the borough of Manhattan, experienced "a 5-year period of clearly unsustainable price gains," so says economist Peter Dawson. Manhattan, he says, was able to hold on in 2007 as the housing slump devastated prices in the U.S., particularly in the California, Southwest U.S., and Florida markets, but the financial crisis that depleted New York's investment banking employee ranks is finally showing up in Manhattan's residential real estate market, he said.

Continue reading Tell-tale stat: Manhattan apartment sales decline for 4th straight quarter

Tell-tale stat: Manhattan apartment sales decline for 4th straight quarter originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 06 Jan 2009 17:45:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Read | Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>featuredinventoriesManhattanmedian home pricesNew York CityPrudential Douglas Elliman Real EstateTue, 06 Jan 2009 17:45:00 EST<![CDATA[Home prices nosedive a record 18% in the past year, Case-Shiller says]]>http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2008/12/30/home-prices-nosedive-a-record-18-in-the-past-year-case-shiller/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2008/12/30/home-prices-nosedive-a-record-18-in-the-past-year-case-shiller/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2008/12/30/home-prices-nosedive-a-record-18-in-the-past-year-case-shiller/#commentsFiled under: , , ,

The song remains the same regarding the U.S. housing sector.

Home prices in the United States in 20 cities declined at the fastest pace ever, weighed down by foreclosures and bank efforts to unload that extra housing.

Home prices in a 20-city sample plunged a record 18.0% in October, on a year-over-year basis, according to the S&P / Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price survey (pdf). The index has fallen every month since January 2007. Home prices fell 17.4% in September, and 16.6% in August, each on a year-over-year basis.

All 20 cities drop

Also, every city in the 20-city index registered a decrease in October, on a year-over-year basis.

Further, prices in a 10-city survey plummeted a record 19.1% on a year-over-year basis.

Continue reading Home prices nosedive a record 18% in the past year, Case-Shiller says

Home prices nosedive a record 18% in the past year, Case-Shiller says originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 30 Dec 2008 13:15:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>Case Shillerforeclosuresinthenewsinventoriesmedian home pricesTue, 30 Dec 2008 13:15:00 EST<![CDATA[Median U.S. existing home price plunges 13% to $181,300 in past year]]>http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2008/12/23/median-u-s-existing-home-price-plunges-13-to-181-300-in-past/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2008/12/23/median-u-s-existing-home-price-plunges-13-to-181-300-in-past/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2008/12/23/median-u-s-existing-home-price-plunges-13-to-181-300-in-past/#commentsFiled under: , , , ,

One holiday wish by investors -- and business executives -- should be for a U.S. economic recovery, starting with the housing sector.

That's because the housing sector showed few signs of renewal in November, as the median sales price of existing homes plummeted 13.2% to $181,300 on a year-over-year basis, the National Association of Realtors announced Tuesday. In November 2007, the median price was $208,800.

By region, the median existing home price in November dropped 0.1% in the Northeast to $257,700, decreased 25.5% in the West to $242,500, dropped 10.6% in the South to $154,500, and declined 11.2% in the Midwest to $142,200.

Meanwhile, sales of existing homes sank 8.6% in November to a 4.49-million-unit annualized rate. Sales have declined 10.6% on a year-over-year basis.

Equally distressing, the number of existing homes on the market in November rose to an 11.2-month supply at the current sales rate, up from a 10.3-month supply in October. A typical healthy market has a three to five month supply.

Home prices are 'not delightful'

Economist Peter Dawson said the weather outside is frightful, and home prices are not delightful.

Continue reading Median U.S. existing home price plunges 13% to $181,300 in past year

Median U.S. existing home price plunges 13% to $181,300 in past year originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 23 Dec 2008 12:10:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>housing sectorinthenewsinventoriesmedian home pricesNational Association of RealtorsTue, 23 Dec 2008 12:10:00 EST<![CDATA[Should Congress pass a tax deduction for down payments for home buyers?]]>http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2008/12/17/should-congress-pass-a-tax-deduction-for-down-payments-for-home/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2008/12/17/should-congress-pass-a-tax-deduction-for-down-payments-for-home/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2008/12/17/should-congress-pass-a-tax-deduction-for-down-payments-for-home/#commentsFiled under: , ,

Attentive husband and father that he is, economist Peter Dawson frequently goes for neighborhood walks with his two grade-school daughters, Laurie and Katie. Max, the family's dog, usually accompanies them. It's great exercise for him and the kids, he says, and Max also has a great time.

A common vista during their walks these days in his delightful suburb about an hour train ride north of New York City?

"Lots and lots of 'For Sale' signs," Dawson said. "I've never seen so many."

Housing: buyers' market, no question

Perhaps neither have the American people. Depending on the survey, and whether you're evaluating new homes or existing homes, there's a 9-11 month supply of homes on the market, nationally, Dawson said. Typically, each category would have a 3-5 supply of homes for sale, in a healthy housing market, he said.

"The current debate in Washington is breaking down to the best way to stimulate the economy, either demand side tactics or supply side tactics. I say we have to use 'both sides' tactics," Dawson said.

Continue reading Should Congress pass a tax deduction for down payments for home buyers?

Should Congress pass a tax deduction for down payments for home buyers? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 17 Dec 2008 13:44:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>Congressdown paymentfiscal policygdphousinginthenewsinventoriesmedian home pricestaxesU.S. economyWed, 17 Dec 2008 13:44:00 EST<![CDATA[Are U.S. homes undervalued?]]>http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2008/12/05/are-u-s-homes-undervalued/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2008/12/05/are-u-s-homes-undervalued/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2008/12/05/are-u-s-homes-undervalued/#commentsFiled under: , ,

Are U.S. homes undervalued? A new survey suggests they are, but don't confuse that fact with 'a good time to buy a home.'

U.S. home prices fell at a 6.9% annual pace in Q3, and are down 6.5% from their 2007 peak, with prices falling in 241 of 330 metropolitan markets, a survey by IHS Global Insight shows, marketwatch.com reported. Further, compared to their long-term fundamental values, U.S. homes are now 3.8% undervalued.

Undervalued homes? Yes, but...

Undervalued, yes. But does undervalued mean U.S. home prices are not likely to fall further? BloggingStocks asked economist Peter Dawson for an assessment.

"Home prices most certainly can fall further, and will continue to do so in most markets over the next year," Dawson said. "Potential home buyers have to keep in mind that just because a home in, say, Miami was $725,000 last year and is priced at $600,000 this year, and is 'undervalued,' that doesn't mean it can't fall to $500,000 or less by next year. And the price trend in most markets remains down. Home buyers need to keep sight of that."

Continue reading Are U.S. homes undervalued?

Are U.S. homes undervalued? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 05 Dec 2008 14:56:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>existing homesgdpinventoriesmedian home pricesNARNational Association of RealtorsU.S. economyFri, 05 Dec 2008 14:56:00 EST<![CDATA[Outcome for the U.S. economy depends mostly on fiscal stimulus]]>http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2008/12/02/outcome-for-the-u-s-economy-depends-mostly-on-fiscal-stimulus/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2008/12/02/outcome-for-the-u-s-economy-depends-mostly-on-fiscal-stimulus/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2008/12/02/outcome-for-the-u-s-economy-depends-mostly-on-fiscal-stimulus/#commentsFiled under: , ,

A good rule for a forward-thinking executive to observe is never go anywhere -- at least don't walk into any meeting -- without the latest projections or models for the U.S. economy for the year ahead.

How's the U.S. economy likely to perform in the year ahead? Well, here are the summaries of economist David H. Wang's models based on predetermined values for 20 proprietary variables.

Realignment: This forecast assumes a modest $200-400 billion fiscal stimulus, a $70-80 a barrel oil price, record / near-record home mortgage foreclosures, along with efforts to realign U.S. energy policy, and reductions in health care spending accompanying national health care legislation. In this model unemployment rises to 9.5% and the recovery does not begin until Q4 2010. (That's correct: Q4 2010.)

Elongated: This model assumes a modest $200-400 billion fiscal stimulus and a $60 a barrel average oil price, with another year of record / near-record home mortgage foreclosures. Unemployment rises to 9.0%, and the economic recovery does not begin until late Q2 / early Q3 2010.

Steady-state: This model assumes about $500 billion in fiscal stimulus and a $60 a barrel average oil price, among other factors, that limits the recession's depth slightly. Unemployment still rises to 8.0% from the current 6.5%, but the economic recovery begins in early 2010.

Continue reading Outcome for the U.S. economy depends mostly on fiscal stimulus

Outcome for the U.S. economy depends mostly on fiscal stimulus originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 02 Dec 2008 11:41:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>foreclosuresgdphealth careinthenewsjob creationjobsmedian home pricesmortgagesoil pricesU.S. economyunemploymentTue, 02 Dec 2008 11:41:00 EST<![CDATA[U.S. new home sales fall 5.3% in October to lowest level since 1991]]>http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2008/11/26/u-s-new-home-sales-fall-5-3-in-october-to-lowest-level-since-1/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2008/11/26/u-s-new-home-sales-fall-5-3-in-october-to-lowest-level-since-1/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2008/11/26/u-s-new-home-sales-fall-5-3-in-october-to-lowest-level-since-1/#commentsFiled under: , ,

U.S. new home sales fell 5.3% to a seasonally adjusted, annualized pace of 433,000 in October -- the lowest annualized level since 1991, the U.S. Commerce Department announced Wednesday (pdf).

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had expected October new home sales to register a 450,000 annualized rate.

Further, new home sales are down 40.1% compared to a year ago. In 2007, 776,000 new homes were sold, compared to 1.05 million in 2006. And the median sales price for a new house decreased to $218,000 in October, a drop of 7% in the past 12 months.

Sales fell in two regions -- declining 18% in the West and 6% in the South. Sales rose 22.6% in the Northeast and 6% in the Midwest.

One bright spot: inventories declined 8% in October to 381,000 units, a roughly 11-month supply at the current sales pace. Inventories have now declined 25.7% in the past year, the largest decline since the federal government started tracking data in 1963.

October data is mixed

Economist Peter Dawson called the October new home sales stats a smorgasbord of data, some positive, some negative.

"We did see a substantial decline in inventories, so that's a positive. The problem is, the rate of new home sales is now so low, due to the recession and credit crunch, that it's still going to take a long time to work off inventories, which are still very high at 11 months," Dawson said.

Continue reading U.S. new home sales fall 5.3% in October to lowest level since 1991

U.S. new home sales fall 5.3% in October to lowest level since 1991 originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 26 Nov 2008 13:20:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>housinginthenewsinventoriesmedian home pricesnew home salesU.S. Commerce DepartmentWed, 26 Nov 2008 13:20:00 EST<![CDATA[Record U.S median home price drop to $183,300 probably is not the bottom]]>http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2008/11/24/record-u-s-median-home-price-drop-to-183-300-probably-is-not-th/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2008/11/24/record-u-s-median-home-price-drop-to-183-300-probably-is-not-th/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2008/11/24/record-u-s-median-home-price-drop-to-183-300-probably-is-not-th/#commentsFiled under: , , ,

The the most-pressing question after the National Association of Realtors announced a 3.1% October sales decline in existing homes: has the housing market bottomed?

Unfortunately, for home sellers and the nation, the answer is no, so says economist Peter Dawson.

Sales fell to 4.98 million units, on an annualized basis, the NAR said. Even more troubling, the median home price plunged 11.3% to $183,300 in October, from $206,700 in October 2007.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had expected existing home sales to decline to a five-million-unit annualized rate in October.

Further, it was the largest year-over-year median home price drop since the NAR started keeping records in 1968. Meanwhile, inventories rose to a 10.2-month supply in October at current sales rates, up from a 10-month supply in September, the NAR said.

Continue reading Record U.S median home price drop to $183,300 probably is not the bottom

Record U.S median home price drop to $183,300 probably is not the bottom originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 24 Nov 2008 14:40:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>foreclosuresinthenewsinventoriesmedian home pricesNational Association of RealtorsMon, 24 Nov 2008 14:40:00 EST<![CDATA[Should the U.S. consider a national, home mortgage foreclosure time-out?]]>http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2008/11/24/should-the-u-s-consider-a-national-home-mortgage-foreclosure-t/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2008/11/24/should-the-u-s-consider-a-national-home-mortgage-foreclosure-t/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2008/11/24/should-the-u-s-consider-a-national-home-mortgage-foreclosure-t/#commentsFiled under: , , , ,

No mainstream economist or analysts thought the United States financial system and economy would ever face circumstances like these, but fundamentals and a negative spiral have worsened to such a degree that the nation may have to implement a temporary, home mortgage foreclosure for all mortgages, according to an economist.

Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) and Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE) have already announced a six-week halt to foreclosures and evictions through the holidays, lasting until January 9, to give the servicers time to implement their own program for at-risk mortgages, Bloomberg News reported. The government-sponsored enterprises own or guarantee $5.2 trillion of the $12 trillion U.S. home mortgage market.

National moratorium needed?

Economist Richard Felson told BloggingStocks a national moratorium on the remaining roughly $7 trillion in mortgages would give the incoming Obama Administration time to play-catch up, after the Bush Administration's underperformance on a universal, streamlined mortgage refinancing program. If implemented, the plan would end the rise in home foreclosures that's causing the securities defaults that are elongating the financial crisis.

Continue reading Should the U.S. consider a national, home mortgage foreclosure time-out?

Should the U.S. consider a national, home mortgage foreclosure time-out? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 24 Nov 2008 09:27:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>banking sectorbanksFDICfeaturedforeclosuresmedian home pricesmortgage backed securitiesmortgagesObamaObama AdministrationPaulsonSheila BairU.S. TreasuryMon, 24 Nov 2008 09:27:00 EST<![CDATA[U.S. home prices fall 9% in the last year ]]>http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2008/11/18/u-s-home-prices-fall-9-compared-to-year-ago-nar-says/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2008/11/18/u-s-home-prices-fall-9-compared-to-year-ago-nar-says/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2008/11/18/u-s-home-prices-fall-9-compared-to-year-ago-nar-says/#commentsFiled under: , , ,

When is a near double-digit decline in home prices viewed as a small victory? When you're the United States in late 2008 -- a nation grappling with its worst housing slump in decades amid signs of a deepening recession.

U.S. median home prices fell 9% in Q3 compared to a year earlier, to $200,500, the National Association of Realtors announced Tuesday. Prices fell in 120 U.S. metro areas, rose in 28 and were flat in four.

California registers major declines

The largest decline in home prices occurred in California: the Riverside-San Bernadino area recorded a 39.4% decline, to $227,200; the Sacramento area, a 36.8% decline to $212.000; and the San Diego area, a 36% plunge to $377,300.

At the other end of the spectrum, prices rose 12.5% in Elmira, N.Y, and 8.7% in Decatur, Illinois.

Economist Peter Dawson said today's NAR statistics represents more, sobering data from the housing sector, but in the broader context the report is not as bad as the quarterly data implies.

"We're down 9%, but it's less than what most feared, so that's a positive development, sort of," Dawson said. "We've experienced so many jolting, double-digit price declines in home prices and other negative stats from the sector that anything less than the truly abysmal looks modest, and that's the case with the Q3 NAR data."

Continue reading U.S. home prices fall 9% in the last year

U.S. home prices fall 9% in the last year originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 18 Nov 2008 14:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>housinginthenewsmedian home pricesNational Association of RealtorsTue, 18 Nov 2008 14:30:00 EST