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Solar stocks feeling the pain (LDK, FSLR, JASO, STP)

This post was written by Minyanville contributor Sean Udall.

JA Solar (NASDAQ: JASO) blew its quarter and lowered guidance, and now the group is under pressure.

I don't think I've ever written a positive word on JASO as they are in the middle tier, essentially a jobber for the solar space. The company make various feedstock products to the final product makers, while being dependent on the core technology and "root" feedstock polysilicon from the likes of LDK Solar (NYSE: LDK) and MEMC Electronics (NYSE: WFR). So it has a timing issue and margin compression issue. The company is facing lower final pricing of their products while having locked in longer term "commodity" pricing at higher prices. So its raw costs are not falling as fast as its own pricing.

The poly guys mentioned above and companies like Sun Power (NASDAQ: SPWRA), First Solar (NASDAQ: FSLR) and Suntech Power (NYSE: STP) don't face these pressures as intensely, though that may not matter much today. STP reports on the 20th this month and I think it will give a clearer picture of the space. Meanwhile SPWRA keeps closing significant deals and FSLR reported the best and has little if any of the funding concerns. So for the leaders, it's a question of how low do they go before the long term positives catch up. Meanwhile, a few of the smaller shops like JASO are in a race against the credit crunch because they need to be able to renegotiate some of their longer-term input costs.

LDK and WFR are still companies that I feel are uniquely positioned, as both have a partial oligopoly status as polysilicon suppliers. In the $15's and lower, it's getting to the point where I may again trade around my core position and look for that beta pop on any significant Naz bounce. Also, this stock could move 50% higher and still be exceedingly cheap on almost any value criteria.

MEMC Electronic Materials sinks after warning of weak chip demand

After the closing bell last night, silicon-wafer producer MEMC Electronic Materials (NYSE: WFR) offered a mid-quarter update that's sent the shares reeling into negative territory this morning. The report started auspiciously enough, as CEO Nabeel Gareeb noted that current production rates "could allow us to achieve results in the upper half of our targeted financial range" of $560 million to $620 million in revenue.

His comment seemed to indicate that MEMC might exceed analysts' expected revenue of $596.7 million, as reported by Thomson Financial. But Gareeb then tempered his optimism by adding, "However, there is increased softness in demand from semiconductor applications customers, primarily due to their inventory reduction initiatives. These elements warrant a continued degree of caution in our outlook, given the amount of time left in the quarter."

Additionally, MEMC warned that it expects operating expenses of approximately $43 million for the third quarter, up from its previous projection of $41 million. The increase is largely attributable to one-time, non-cash severance-related expenses.

Continue reading MEMC Electronic Materials sinks after warning of weak chip demand

BusinessWeek looks at solar stocks

With the high fuel prices over the past year, solar stocks have been making some nice gains. But there are some signs that they may not be as safe as they appear. Investors' interest in solar companies increased due to soaring crude futures, but there are some factors to take into account before investing money into solar.

The current BusinessWeek looks at stocks such as First Solar (NASDAQ: FSLR), SolarWorld and Evergreen Solar (NASDAQ: ESLR), which have been facing increased volatility based on contract deal news or the lack thereof.

A major impact came in May, with speculation that Germany would lower subsidies given to companies and individuals who install alternative energy equipment. But the cut was not as deep as expected and stocks rebounded nicely.

Continue reading BusinessWeek looks at solar stocks

MEMC Electronic Materials: Two 21st century trends in one stock

Two of the digital-age growth trends include semiconductors and solar power, so when one can potentially capitalize on both in one stock, it makes for an appealing investment opportunity. MEMC Electronic Materials does just that.

MEMC Electronic Materials (NYSE: WFR) designs, manufactures and provides wafers and intermediate products for use in the semiconductor, solar and related industries.

Analysts see 2008 revenue increasing 20-30% after a likely solid 23-27% increase in 2007. Backorders also are impressive. Meanwhile, the sector's outlook provides additional cause for optimism, with solid demand for both solar wafers and semi wafers seen in the immediate years ahead.

Continue reading MEMC Electronic Materials: Two 21st century trends in one stock

Analyst upgrades: WPO, HNR, WFR and BPFH

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Washington Post, Harvest Natural, Memc Electronic Materials and Boston Private Financial were today's noteworthy upgrades:

  • Deutsche Bank upgraded shares of The Washington Post Company (NYSE: WPO to Buy from Hold to reflect the company's exposure to the counter-cyclical education division.
  • Jefferies upgraded shares of Harvest Natural Resources Inc. (NYSE: HNR) to Buy from Hold and raised their target to $17 from $11 after the company received final approval in the conversion to a mixed company. They note that conversion clears the way for renewed investment.
  • Friedman Billings added Memc Electronic Materials Inc (NYSE: WFR) to its Top Picks List following its Q3 report and guidance as "solar wafer contracts," not including spot poly, are expected to increase from 15% of the total to 35%-40% in CY08 and greater than 50% in CY09.
  • William Blair raised its rating on Boston Private Financial Holdings Inc (NASDAQ: BPFH) to Outperform from Market Perform after the better-than-expected Q3 results.

OTHER UPGRADES:

Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA-93.7910,197.47
NASDAQ-17.882,149.02
S&P 500-11.271,087.24

Last updated: November 12, 2009: 11:44 PM

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