So far, sovereign wealth funds have had bad luck with investments in U.S. financial institutions such as with Citigroup (NYSE: C) and Merrill Lynch (NYSE: MER).
Despite this, there still may be interest in dealmaking. Just take a look at the situation with Merrill Lynch. There was talk that the troubled firm would unload its 49.8% stake in BlackRock Inc (NYSE: BLK), and apparently there was interest from sovereign wealth funds, according to the Financial Times.
The potential suitors: Kuwait Investment Authority and Temasek (Singapore).
However, one issue was valuation. Why sell when the markets are in dire straights?
But there were some other key considerations. For example, BlackRock has been able to escape much of the turbulence from the credit crunch. More importantly, the firm has a lot of growth potential in global markets.
BlackRock must give consent for a sale -- at least for the next 14 months. So, in the end, it has a lot of power in the situation.
Reuters reports that Merrill Lynch (NYSE: MER) reported worse than expected results for the second quarter. Merrill lost $4.9 billion and is selling $8 billion in fresh assets to raise capital.
Merrill's news is the latest of the asset write-down capital raising dances that have taken place in the last year. This dance pairs the write-down of mortgage-backed securities that nobody wants to buy with a desperate effort to raise capital to keep its capital ratios from collapsing. To that end, Merrill took $9.4 billion of write-downs of repackaged debt, including CDOs, as well as exposure to bond insurers. And it raised $4.425 billion from selling its 20% stake in Bloomberg. Merrill may also sell a controlling interest in Financial Data Services for $3.5 billion.
Its loss of $4.42 a share was more than twice the $1.94 loss that analysts had expected. There is not likely to be an end to this asset write-down capital raising dance until people are willing to trade CDOs. And that's the optimistic scenario. If CDOs remain illiquid, it will be ever more difficult to raise capital. And in that case, the prospect of bankruptcy or government bailout loom large. Meanwhile, Merill's stock lost 7.3% in after-hours trading.
Reuters reports that today is a big one for bank and technology earnings. It looks like Merrill Lynch (NYSE: MER) will lose big and will try to soften the blow with an announcement about selling its 20% of Bloomberg LP for $4.5 billion to its founder, New York mayor, Michael Bloomberg. JP Morgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) and a handful of big technology companies are expected to report profits. But will they be enough?
Meanwhile, how can we make sense of yesterday's 276 point rally on Wall Street? Nobody knows what happened, but theories abound: the price of oil fell -- possibly due to anticipation that the Fed would raise interest rates to deal with inflation that is roaring out of control. Higher interest rates would strengthen the dollar, which would drive down the price of oil since it's traded in dollars. But I think yesterday's market was a short-covering frenzy. With the SEC foolishly squeezing the shorts, they needed to cover their bets that financials would fall further. Of course good news from Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) didn't hurt.
Today's earnings -- with estimates courtesy of a Reuters analyst survey -- are likely to move the market. Here's a roundup:
Merrill Lynch is expected to lose $1.94
JPMorgan was expected to make $0.44, down 63% from 2007. At a Price/Earnings to Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.4 and a P/E of 12 on earnings forecast to grow 31% to $3.34 in 2009, it looks cheap. CNNMoney reports it made 54 cents -- well ahead of expectations and its shares are up 5% in premarket.
Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT) will earn 47 cents a share, a 21% increase from last year. At a PEG ratio of 1.1 and a P/E of 15 on earnings forecast to grow 14.3% to $2.16 in 2009, it looks reasonably priced.
People familiar with the issue said that European regulators are gearing up to file new antitrust charges against Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC). The charges, the Wall Street Journal reported, would allege Intel gave major European retailers an incentive not to sell computers that use Advanced Micro Devices Inc (NYSE: AMD) chips.
OTHER PAPERS:
The New York Times reported that News Corporation's (NYSE: NWS) New York Post and The Daily News, owned by Mortimer Zuckerman, are exploring a print pact and have been in talks to find ways to combine some business functions of the papers, according to people briefed on the matter.
Three people familiar with the matter said that the SEC subpoenaed Wall Street investment banks including The Goldman Sachs Group Inc (NYSE: GS), Deutsche Bank AG (NYSE: DB) and Merrill Lynch & Co Inc (NYSE: MER) in its hunt and crack down on suspected manipulation of Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc (NYSE: LEH) shares. Bloomberg reported that two of the people said the SEC, which yesterday curtailed short selling in financial stocks, is looking for e-mails and trading records and is also examining whether securities firms have "adequate controls" to deal properly with misconduct.
There are many ironies in the fact that President George W. Bush will throw the first pitch at Major League Baseball's All-Star Game in New York. For one, President Bush is the first managing general partner of a Major League team (the Texas Rangers) to become President of the United States.
President Franklin Roosevelt was the first to attend an All-Star Game and throw out the first pitch, starting the tradition. He too had to deal with a poor economy and by the time he threw out that first ball the groundwork was being laid for World War II. President Bush has had to contend with his own war.
While there are differing views as to whether we should have gone into Iraq and whether we should stay or get out, this will always be viewed as George's war, fair or not. And the state of our economy in 2008 will also be viewed as George's economy, fair or not.
The ultimate irony for me is that Yankee Stadium is scheduled to be torn apart at the end of the season. This is YANKEE Stadium and the last president to set foot in it will be George W. Bush. The stadium with the greatest heritage in baseball, the 'House That Ruth Built', is going to be torn apart while our economy is also being torn apart. It is being torn out at its roots.
After the implosion of IndyMac Bancorp (NYSE: IMB) and news of the deterioration of Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) and Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE) last week, there's bound to be a certain level of trepidation as the earnings crunch begins this coming week and many big financial companies report. Here's a look at what Wall Street was expecting (see The week in preview: Expectations as the earnings crunch begins for expectations of other reporting companies.)
Analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial are expecting the following of companies to report lower earnings when compared to the same period of the previous year.
Merrill Lynch recently said that Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) could be hurt by slower spending for PCs and servers. The company's CEO, Paul Otellini, begs to differ. According to Bloomberg, "Seventy-five percent of our sales are not in the U.S. and global business seems very strong still," Otellini said in an interview at Allen & Co.'s media conference in Sun Valley, Idaho. "There may be some patterns in the U.S. that may be concerning to some people, but we haven't seen them at this point."
Short sellers are siding with Merrill and against the company's view of its rosy future. Shares sold short in Intel for the period ending June 30 rose 44%, or 27.4 million, to 89.2 million. That was the largest increase for any company traded on Nasdaq.
Why would investors trade against the company's own statements? Probably because they don't believe Otellini. With Intel trading at $20.64, it is not all that far above its 52-week low of $18.05. In December of last year, the stock was nearly $28.
Intel probably cannot cut through the headwinds facing the industry. Sales of PCs are not likely to do well in the second half as consumer and corporate spending are curtailed due to a falling economy. Hoping that overseas sales will make up for that is not necessarily a sure thing. China recently announced a sharp drop in the rate at which its exports are growing. That means that its GDP increases could fall sharply, sending the world's most populated country into a recession. Other Asian economies could face the same fate.
Intel is talking out of its hat. The market has figured that out.
Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.
As expected, New York Mayor Mike Bloomberg's blind trust is interested in buyingMerrill Lynch & Co. (NYSE: MER)'s 20% stake in Bloomberg LP for between $4.5 billion and $5 billion, according to The New York Post.
The acquisition would give Bloomberg total control over his namesake media company and my employer for seven years. Merrill, of course, also is looking to unload its 49% stake in Blackrock Inc. (NYSE: BLK) to shore up its balance sheet. No word on potential buyers there.
As I posted yesterday, Mike Bloomberg is a logical buyer for the Merrill stake in his company. Bloomberg has the right of first refusal of the sale as well, which probably scared away the few other potential buyers that were out there. Bloomberg LP also prides itself on being a private company that marches to the beat of its own idiosyncratic drummer.
Merrill shareholders, including a close relative, have not had too much to smile about lately. Shares of the New York-based investment bank are down more than 41% this year. Obviously, it's selling its assets from a position of weakness. The New York mayor will gain control over his media empire at a bargain that would have been unimaginable a few years ago.
In a quarterly dance routine that's becoming quite familiar -- call it the write-down, capital raising dance -- the Wall Street Journal reports that Merrill Lynch & Co. (NYSE: MER) is planning to sell a $5 billion stake in Bloomberg, the media company, and to cash out of its 49% stake, estimated at $12 billion, in Blackrock (NYSE: BLK).
Why is Merrill doing this? As we've seen over and over again in the last year, banks must maintain specific levels of capital to assets in order to meet regulatory requirements. When a bank reduces the value of its assets, as accounting rules require, the bank writes off the decline in asset values against its capital. In order to maintain a sufficiently high ratio of capital to assets, banks seek to raise capital equal to the amount of the write-down.
Merrill anticipates taking $6 billion in write-downs for the quarter. These could come from its $41 billion in Level 3 assets -- assets valued based on computer models since there is no active market that prices them. Merrill is fortunate to have these stakes available to sell because it will be able to raise capital without diluting current shareholders. Unfortunately, once it sells these stakes, Merrill shareholders will no longer get the earnings stream they generated.
Since early May, the share price of Merrill Lynch & Co. (NYSE: MER) has plunged, going from $52 to $31.12. Basically, various Wall Street analysts have turned negative on the company as there may be a need to seek more capital to deal with write-downs.
Of course, a strategy to deal with this is to unload some key assets. In fact, according to a piece in the New York Times, it looks like Merrill is trying to sell off its 20% stake in Bloomberg LP.
It was in the early 1980s that Merrill Lynch invested $30 million in Bloomberg. And since then, Bloomberg has become a global powerhouse in financial analytics. Currently, its community comprises about 250,000 subscribers.
As for Merrill Lynch, it looks like its negotiations are in the first stages -- such as with putting out feelers and sending out pitch books.
Yet, it's never easy to sell a minority position. After all, such a stake provides little control. Moreover, it's tough to resell the position. Keep in mind that Michael Bloomberg still owns 72% of the firm.
Plus, he has a right of first refusal on any purchase. This is a powerful tool and is likely to diminish the ultimate valuation of a possible deal. In other words, the logical buyer for the 20% stake is likely to be Michael Bloomberg himself.
Six months of 2008 are now behind us and the stock market has not been a friendly place to most investors. Stability that was once found in household names that were industry giants is gone, and they have now been brought to their knees.
Many of them were the stocks we might have looked to in the past for stability, so you can be sure I put forward my five candidates with a little trepidation, but forward I go anyway. First a little review is in order.
Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C) dropped from around $53 per share last year to around $30 in January and we can buy it today for around $17. Even at that price Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) has downgraded it to a sell and thinks there is more bad news to come. Citigroup was the largest bank in the world. Not any more.
General Motors (NYSE: GM) was the largest car maker in the world. That was before the stock tumbled from $43 to its current $11 range. A crushing blow to long time investors hoping that someone in the company could stop the ship from sinking.
The Wall Street Journal's "The Game" column speculates that one of the results of the Bear Stearns crash could be the push of investment banks and commercial ones closer together, which could result in better handling of volatility with more stability. Some observers think Merrill Lynch & Co (NYSE: MER), Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) or The Goldman Sachs Group Inc (NYSE: GS) could go that route by buying a commercial bank. Any move would force them to adhere to better reserve ratios, affect short term bank funding, and shrink balance sheets.
The Wall Street Journal reported that Google Inc (NASDAQ: GOOG) will soon make available a new service that measure hits on the Internet with the intent of helping advertisers decide where to buy ads online and would directly compete with comScore Inc (NASDAQ: SCOR) and Nielsen Online. Ad executives said Google's method could make targeting markets more efficient.
A Manhattan judge dismissed four claims made by American International Group Inc (NYSE: AIG) in its fight to regain control of a block of its shares held by Starr International, a company that once founded a lucrative compensation plan for AIG executives. AIG believes the shares held by Starr should continue to be used to fund employee compensation, the Financial Times reported.
WEB SITES:
According to Scorpio Partnership, Bloomberg reported that UBS AG (NYSE: UBS) and Merrill Lynch had slower growth in assets under management last year due to losses connected to the U.S. subprime crisis.
U.S. stock prices are likely to fall further because record energy and food prices are constraining consumer spending, suggesting a worse-than-average recession, Merrill Lynch's U.S. sector strategist said Monday, Bloomberg News reported.
Brian Belski, Merrill's U.S. sector strategist, said this is not "your average recession," and that he would "urge caution for investors attempting to call the bottom in the current environment," Bloomberg News reported.
On Monday the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 0.33 points to 11,842.36. The Dow has fallen about 1,400 points since trading above 13,100 in late April and again in mid-May. The Dow has also been below its 50-day moving average -- which technical analysts believe to be an indicator of short-term support or resistance -- for more than two weeks. The Dow also has been below its 200-day moving average -- a technical indicator of longer-term market support / resistance -- for about six months. Technical analysts note that a strong market and Dow would consistently remain above its 200-day moving average; a bearish market, the reverse.
Bearish on DJIA
Economist Peter Dawson echoed Belski's evaluation and said the March -- May rise in the S&P 500 and the DJIA was not rooted in strong evidence, fundamental or technical.
"Basically, for the last five months or so, the U.S. economy has been treading water, going sideways. At the same time, we had a Dow rally off the 11,800 lows in March. That suggested trouble if GDP growth did not accelerate in Q2," Dawson said. "It hasn't so far, and the Dow sold off. I agree with Belski in that there's considerable risk to the downside for the market given the trend in consumer spending and the overall risks to the economy."
So far, sovereign wealth funds have had bad luck with investments in U.S. financial institutions such as with Citigroup (NYSE: C) and Merrill Lynch (NYSE: MER).
Reuters
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There are many ironies in the fact that President George W. Bush will throw the first pitch at Major League Baseball's All-Star Game in New York. For one, President Bush is the first managing general partner of a Major League team (the Texas Rangers) to become President of the United States.
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Six months of 2008 are now behind us and the stock market has not been a friendly place to most investors. Stability that was once found in household names that were industry giants is gone, and they have now been brought to their knees. 
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