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Chipotle Mexican Grill serving up hot results

Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (NYSE: CMG) reported outstanding results again last night, and the fast-food chain rallied big in after-hours trading, up as much as $6. This followed a similar type of moving in the previous day's trading. Here are some of the highlights:
  • Diluted EPS increased 81.8% to $0.60
  • Revenue increased 33.9% to $274.3 million
  • Comparable restaurant sales increased 11.6% -- Wow!
  • Restaurant level operating margins increased 150 basis points to 23.2% -- Massive!
  • Net income increased 85.1% to $20.0 million -- Not too shabby!
Chipotle, which was scooped up by McDonald's Corporation (NYSE: MCD) at its earlier stages of development, looks like it's going to be the McDonald's of the future. This is comparable to investing in Ray Kroc when few of his hamburger joints populated the country. Buy Chipotle and go along for the ride.

Canadian dollars and American dollars: A peso for your thoughts.

There is a bit of glee circulating on the frozen tundra amid news that the Canadian dollar has hit the equivalence of 92.34 American cents, its highest point in 30 years. TD Securities Inc. chief currency strategist Shaun Osborne states that it is possible that the Canadian dollar could reach a value of .96 cents by June. Analysts agree that if commodity prices continue to rise, there stands a good chance that the two currencies would equalize. I say if that point is reached the two currencies should be immediately put into lockstep and our fluctuating currency exchange on our northern border should end forever. Could it be done? Yes, it could. Will it ever happen? Probably it won't.

Personally, I think the benefits would far outweigh the temporary disadvantages. Granted, I expect there would be quite a tussle in the commodities exchange for a time but that's a self adjusting system anyway. NAFTA paved the way for the "free flow" of goods and materials across our borders. Currency equalization would take the teeth out of much of the damage that tilted document has inflicted upon the American economy. I suspect that Canadian manufacturers might get just a little testy about the idea, but I believe that in the long run it would level the playing field for them as well as us. I also think it would give North America a lot more leverage in the world markets.

Economic idealists and world view visionaries already have a name for a singular North American currency. Do a web search for the word "Amero" and you'll spend the rest of your week reading about it. You'll receive every point of view you could ever imagine. Some say it would be the next step to the "One World Government," some say it would be a protectionist move. I say it's the most logical step toward stabilizing two very powerful yet unsteady economies. I see it as a grand statement to the rest of the world that there's still a force to be reckoned with over here pinned between the Atlantic and Pacific oceans.

Then, if we could just annex Mexico...

The economy is firm but changing: Listen to the railroads

A brief look at railroad freight traffic numbers offers some tell-tale signs as to where our economy is heading. I like to review railroad loading statistics because they can give you a crystal-ball edge in guessing where the big money is leaning in the volatile economic food chain. Basically, right now the numbers are firm year over year, but the freight demographics are what I find interesting.

According to the Association of American Railroads: Total rail freight volume is up 8.9% as compared to 2006, but while container volume is up about 14%, trailer volume is down 6.2%. That indicates that for the year so far, the railroads are probably moving more imported product than domestic product.

While total carload freight (not including inter-modal) was down nearly 1% this week as compared to the same week last year, total ton-miles increased 0.3%, indicating that less freight is moving but it is traveling more miles. That is clearly due to the decreasing inventories of manufactured product, which should bode well for manufacturers in the second and third quarters. That's assuming that consumer spending maintains current levels.

Nonmetallic mineral shipments have increased nearly 20% by volume over last year. This shows strength in base chemicals, base raw materials, glass, concrete, asphalt, industrial construction, and infrastructural improvements. Metallic ore shipments are down over 50%; I believe that shows weakness most especially in steel, tin, aluminum, and copper. Lumber and wood product shipments declined nearly 25% -- no reprieve for the home building market there! Petroleum product shipments are up 9.2% year over year, and coal shipments have increased 3.1%. Here's a tip, it looks like road building and resurfacing will be a big gainer this summer!

Continue reading The economy is firm but changing: Listen to the railroads

Chipotle -- the McDonald's of 2007

What Ray Kroc was to hamburgers, Steve Ells is to Mexican food. Ells, Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc's (NYSE: CMG) founder, has created a stock to buy and put away. This company is too early in its growth phase to be ignored. There is a long way to go with this stock.

Highlights for full year 2006 as compared to full year 2005 include:
  • Revenue increased 31.1% to $822.9 million
  • Comparable restaurant sales increased 13.7%, compared to 10.2% in 2005
  • Restaurant level operating margins increased 240 basis points to 20.9%
  • Income from operations approximately doubled to $62.0 million
  • Diluted earnings per share were $1.28, compared to $0.66 in 2005
There could be some negatives. Chipotle needs to invest heavily to get employees. Growing rapidly in a tight labor environment is extremely difficult. It will also have to deal with higher food costs and higher costs to open up new stores as it enters more expensive markets.

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DJIA+30.6910,464.40
NASDAQ+6.872,176.05
S&P 500+4.981,110.63

Last updated: November 27, 2009: 08:13 AM

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