Valero Energy (NYSE: VLO) closed at $18.31. VLO is expected to report Q2 EPS on July 28. Crude oil futures are recently up 0.82% to $68.61. VLO August call option implied volatility is at 38, puts are at 43; below its 26-week average of 61, according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing price movement.

MGM Mirage (NYSE: MGM) closed at $7.73. MGM is expected to report Q2 EPS on August 3. August option implied volatility is at 83; September is at 87; below its 26-week average of 110, according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing price movement.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

Analyst upgrades:

• Citigroup upgraded Lennar (NYSE: LEN) to Buy from Hold as it believes the company's near-term liquidity profile is improved following the $400M debt issuance. The firm raised its target price to $12 from $11.
• Jefferies upgraded Rowan Companies (NYSE: RDC) to Buy from Hold as it believes jack-up drillers will continue to outperform deepwater names. The firm raised its target price to $27 from $20.
• Keefe Bruyette upgraded First Financial (NASDAQ: FFIN) to Market Perform from Underperform to reflect more positive loan data for the Texas banks. The firm raised its target price on shares to $44 from $38.
• MGM Mirage (NYSE: MGM) was upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan.
• Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) was upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at JMP Securities.
• Brinker (NYSE: EAT) was upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Barclays.

MGM Mirage (NYSE: MGM) showed its hand in the earnings confessional Monday night after the close. The gaming firm banked 38 cents per share, or $105.2 million, compared with year-ago results of 40 cents ($118.3 million). Net revenue was down 20% to $1.5 billion.

Excluding gains related to the sale of Treasure Island resort, the company lost six cents per share, falling short of analysts' estimates. MGM CEO and Chairman Jim Murren told investors in a conference call that while room rates are "firming" and overall demand seems improved, "[MGM] is not out of the woods yet by any stretch in this market ... at least [visitors] have got their wallets in their pockets [now] and they're spending a little more."

Late last Friday, casino giant MGM Mirage (NYSE: MGM) announced that it would provide $200 million to keep its $8.7 billion CityCenter project running.

This move should help resolve a "likely bankruptcy filing." Of the $200 million, $100 million should be provided by Dubai World, which is MGM's partner in the CityCenter joint venture. MGM stated that the funding is "with the authorization of its senior lenders" and satisfies the necessary sponsor equity contributions.

After days of rallying, the market decided that bank stocks had gone much too far. With no first quarter earnings out, the fact is that the current quarter could still be tough. Financial shares could still reset lower. The market reacted accordingly.

The unofficial numbers for the day broke out like this:

Dow 7,278.38 -122.42 (-1.65%)
S&P 500 768.54 -15.50 (-1.98%)
Nasdaq 1,457.27 -26.21 (-1.77%)

TOP ANALYST CALLS

Will some lights go out in Vegas? Donald Trump rolled the dice and lost. His Trump Entertainment Resorts has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy. Not to be outdone MGM Miraage (NYSE: MGM) now has the dice and must make its points to stay in the game.

In an economy like this, is anyone going to the game?

Yes -- but Pittsburgh people will stay in their cars (hotels are too expensive), and the Arizona people will stay in foreclosed houses (so they should feel right at home).

Speaking of hotels -- short 'em.

I received an e-mail from the Mirage in Las Vegas to come out to watch the Super Bowl for $69 a night.

Last time I was there for the Super Bowl, maybe 15 years ago, it was about $400 a night.

The Mirage is owned by MGM Mirage (NYSE: MGM), which is hovering at a technical support price. Once it breaks through, look out.

I'm not traveling to Tampa or Las Vegas -- I'm staying at home for the big game. And I'm shorting MGM.

Michael Shulman is a contributor to OptionsZone.com.

It's Super Bowl time.

This day of the year has almost reached holiday status where families and friends gather in front of big-screen TV to spend six hours watching a typically boring football game and stuffing themselves with nachos, wings and beer.

With all of the hoopla surrounding the event, this is a good time for investors to go for some Super Bowl profits.

Why? Looks like it's not just a pseudo-holiday -- it's a tradition:

This post is part of our feature on Money Losers of 2008. See all 20.

Our series of Money Losers for 2008 has its share of millionaires and billionaires on it. Personally, I think that is just wrong. While these people may have lost billions of dollars this past year, it doesn't seem fair to call them money losers. They will certainly survive this troubled time and still have their house, their cars, and (at least some of) their fortune. However, on the flip side, no one would read an article about Frank the farmer from Iowa who lost 50% of his life savings.

Kirk Kerkorian made his fortune by developing real estate and hotels in Las Vegas and by buying and selling movie studio MGM three times over. According to the Forbes 2008 list, he is the world's 41st-richest person with a net worth of $16.0 billion.

This year has seen some bumps in the road for Mr. Kerkorian. His private investment corporation Tracinda owns about 55% of MGM Mirage (NYSE: MGM) and made a very prominent bad call on Ford (NYSE: F) earlier this year.

MGM peaked around October of last year with a stock price upwards of $95. At that time, Tracinda's 55% state would have been worth about $14.5 billion. However, with today's share price of just $13.50, that chunk of MGM is "only" $1.5 billion. Of course these are only paper gains and paper losses at this point, but it still stings a little bit to look at the bottom line.

MGM Mirage (NYSE: MGM) has reached a deal to sell its Treasure Island Hotel & Casino to Phil Ruffin for $500 million in cash. The deal has a total value of $775 million including $275 million in secured notes. In a press release announcing the deal, Ruffin said that "We are very excited to be in a position to acquire such a stellar property in Treasure Island. The property is in pristine condition, ideally located in the heart of the Strip and benefits from a wonderful team of outstanding employees. We are financially positioned to close on this transaction once all of the necessary approvals have been received."

MGM said it anticipates recording a "substantial gain" on the sale of the property, which was purchased as part of MGM Grand's acquisition of Mirage Resorts in May of 2000.

Shares of MGM Mirage are up about 11% on the news, although they were up more than 23% in earlier trading. Given the state of the economy and MGM's leveraged balance sheet, the proceeds of the deal are likely to be used to pay down the company's substantial debt load.

Las Vegas Sands (NYSE: LVS) closed at $36.84. LVS September option implied volatility is at 114, October is at 95; above its 26-week average of 61 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

Wynn Resorts (NASDAQ: WYNN) is recently down $3.52 t $81.90. WYNN September implied volatility is at 74; October is at 70; above its 26-week average of 59 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

MGM Mirage (NYSE: MGM) closed at $32.45. MGM September option implied volatility is at 93, October is at 91; above its 26-week average of 70, suggesting larger movement.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Here are some highlights from this past week's earnings coverage from BloggingStocks:

• Archer Daniels Midland Co. (NYSE: ADM) said Q4 profit plunged, missing analysts' expectations.
• Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (NYSE: BRK.A) posted yet another solid quarter and topped analysts' expectations.
• Cisco Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: CSCO) reported solid results and reaffirmed its revenue guidance.
• General Mills Inc. (NYSE: GIS) performance despite rising commodities costs impressed Jim Cramer.
• Hansen Natural Corp. (NASDAQ: HANS) Q2 earnings surged on popularity of Monster energy drink.
• Humana Inc. (NYSE: HUM) beat Q2 expectations, sending shares of health insurers higher.
• LeapFrog Enterprises Inc. (NYSE: LF) narrowed its Q2 loss, sending shares up near its 52-week high.
• MGM Mirage (NYSE: MGM) Q2 profit tumbled but revenues topped analysts' expectations.
• NetSuite Inc. (NYSE: N) cut its Q2 loss and revenues surged on 400 new customers.
• Orbitz Worldwide Inc. (NYSE: OWW) narrowed its net loss while revenues inched upward.
• Polo Ralph Lauren Corp. (NYSE: RL) easily topped Q1 expectations and raised its full-year guidance.
• Pzena Investment Management Inc's (NYSE: PZN) CEO admits that its Q2 was "awful, just terrible."
• 3Com Corp. (NASDAQ: COMS) raised its Q1 profit and sales forecasts due to gains in China.
• Toyota Motor Corp. (NYSE: TM) net income fell due to the strong yen and rising materials costs.
• Warner Music Group Corp. (NYSE: WMG) reported a smaller-than-expected Q3 net loss.
• World Wrestling Entertainment Inc. (NYSE: WWE) flat year-over-year earnings fell short of estimtates.

MGM Mirage (NYSE: MGM / option chains) shares are soaring higher today even though the company announced its second-quarter profit fell 68.6% to $113.1 million as resorts lowered room rates and visitors spent less money. MGM posted earnings of 40 cents per share on sales of $1.9 billion, while analysts expected earnings of 42 cents per share on revenue of $1.89 billion.

Even though the EPS missed estimates, investors seem to be focusing on revenues that beat estimates. The gaming sector has been beaten down so much over the first half of this year that it is possible anything other than a complete meltdown is a catalyst for the stock to rise. If you think that the stock won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on MGM.

MGM opened this morning at $31.31. So far today the stock has hit a low of $31.04 and a high of $34.29. As of 2:35, MGM is trading at $33.85, up $2.85 (9.2%). The chart for MGM looks neutral and S&P gives MGM a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold ranking.

For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a September bull-put credit spread below the $22.50 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 4.2% return in just seven weeks as long as MGM is above $22.50 at September expiration. MGM would have to fall by more than 33% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.

With a slowdown in the U.S. economy, the Las Vegas economic expansion has come to a halt. With people unable to pay for a gallon of gas, it comes as no surprise that they are not in the mood to go gamble. The Independent of the UK had a fascinating article about how Las Vegas is suffering with the slow economy.

According to the report: "With Americans cutting back on luxuries, and the price of transport rocketing, the so-called 'Vegas vacation' is facing the axe. This week, as the nation celebrated Independence Day, major hotels were taking stock of a fall in all-important room occupancy rates from their usually impressive 95 per cent levels to nearer 80 per cent."

Gambling revenues have also slipped 3%. Attendance at conventions, a big contributor to the city's coffers has dropped by more than 7%.

All an investor has to do to see how bad the carnage has been is to check some stocks related to the Las Vegas gambling and tourist industry. Las Vegas Sands (NYSE: LVS) has gone in the last 52 weeks from more than $148/share down to around $39, a drop of more than 70%. Ouch. MGM Mirage (NYSE: MGM) has dropped from more than $100/share to under $30.

As the economy continues to sputter, look for more trouble ahead for Las Vegas. On the other hand, contrarian investors may look at an uptick in the U.S. economy, whenever it happens, as a signal to potentially look at stocks that are associated with Las Vegas.

Aaron Katsman is the lead Portfolio Manager and Managing Director of America Israel Investment Associates, LLC. and Senior Editor of IsraelNewsletter.com. DISCLOSURE: Writer's fund has no position in any stock mentioned, as of 7/6/08.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Kohlberg Capital, ClickSoftware and Liberty Property Trust were today's noteworthy initiations:

• JMP Securities started shares of Kohlberg Capital (NASDAQ: KCAP) with an Outperform rating and $14 target. The firm believes Kohlberg Capital's alliance with Kohlberg and Company allows Kohlberg Capital to take advantage of considerable expertise. JMP Securities believes Kohlberg Capital has an attractive risk/reward ratio.
  
• Roth Capital initiated ClickSoftware (NASDAQ: CKSW) with a Hold rating and $3.60 target and expects EPS pressure from the depreciating dollar near-term.
  
• Liberty Property Trust (NYSE: LRY) was initiated with a Hold rating at Stifel, citing lack of internal earnings divers and fair valuation.

OTHER INITIATIONS:

• Oppenheimer initiated VisionChina Media (NASDAQ: VISN) with a Perform rating and $25 target.
  
• Merrill assumed MGM Mirage (NYSE: MGM) with a Neutral rating.
  
• Morgan Stanley started BJ's Wholesale (NYSE: BJ) and Costco (NASDAQ: COST) with Equal Weight ratings.