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Short City: McGraw-Hill, Paychex

Investor and trader Mishko Janusevich had a mantra that he used to repeat while outlining the top, new stock shorts that appeared that day, as determined by technical indicators.

He would stand next to the overhead projected stock chart at the front of the trading room and recite, "You see this stock? You see that it's dropped $8 in past two days? You think it can't drop any more? SELL THAT STOCK it's dropping more!!"

Short these shares if you can tolerate high-risk and are an experienced investor that does not remove Buy/Stop Losses:

Continue reading Short City: McGraw-Hill, Paychex

Analyst upgrades, downgrades and initiations: RHHBY, MOT, RBS, DKS, MCO ...

Analyst upgrades:
  • ING upgraded Roche (OTC: RHHBY) to Buy from Hold as it believes Roche will not pay more than $100/share for Genentech (NYSE: DNA) and that the Avastin adjuvant data due April 2009 provides significant upside potential.
  • Oppenheimer upgraded Motorola (NYSE: MOT) to Outperform from Perform on valuation as it believes sentiment is at an all-time low and the stock has limited downside. The firm set a $5 target on shares.
  • Morgan Stanley upgraded Comerica (NYSE: CMA) to Equal Weight from Underweight citing valuation that adequately reflects credit deterioration in its commercial-heavy loan portfolio and aggressive government action.
  • Cheesecake Factory (NASDAQ: CAKE) and Nucor (NYSE: NUE) were upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman.
  • Pinnacle Entertainment (NYSE: PNK) was raised to Overweight from Equal Weight at Barclays.

Continue reading Analyst upgrades, downgrades and initiations: RHHBY, MOT, RBS, DKS, MCO ...

LinkedIn connects with $22.7 million

When I visited the offices of LinkedIn about six months ago, the place was frenetic with activity as the business networking site was in the midst of surging growth.

Investors wanted a piece of it, naturally, and indeed today LinkedIn announced a Series D funding of $22.7 million. The investors include a mix of VCs as well as strategics: Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS), The McGraw-Hill Companies (NYSE: MHP), SAP Ventures (NYSE: SAP) and Bessemer Venture Partners.

The deal indicates that LinkedIn's growth prospects remain intact. After all, in the current tough economic environment, business networking is critical.

LinkedIn's investor roster also shows that the company is likely to expand into new categories. For example, with the support of SAP, LinkedIn can make inroads into on-demand enterprise computing.

Dan Nye, who is the CEO of LinkedIn, wrote this in his blog:

"I'd like to reiterate our commitment to creating the right partnerships to help us build a great service for over 30 million professionals on LinkedIn today - a number that's growing by leaps and bounds each month. This funding strengthens LinkedIn further, and will help us to continue creating additional services for professionals to connect and collaborate more effectively, around the world. Services that allow you to connect with the people you trust, build out a robust online professional profile and collaborate with members of your professional network on LinkedIn."

Tom Taulli
is the author of various books, including The Complete M&A Handbook and The Streetsmart Guide to Short Selling: Techniques the Pros Use to Profit in Any Market. He is also the founder of BizEquity
, a valuation website.

S&P rated deal 'structured by cows' according to SEC report

The Wall Street Journal (subscription required) has obtained a draft version of the SEC's report on bond-rating firms and their role in the credit bubble, and some of the stuff is pretty scary.

In one e-mail, a staffer at Standard & Poor's, which is own by McGraw-Hill (NYSE: MHP) told another that "we rate every deal," and that "it could be structured by cows and we would rate it."

Another wrote that "rating agencies continue to create" an "even bigger monster -- the CDO market. Let's hope we are all wealthy and retired by the time this house of cards falters. ;O)"

Yes -- complete with the smiley face. If this seems reminiscent of disgraced analyst Henry Blodget's e-mails bashing stocks he was publicly pumping during the dot-com bubble, that's because it's exactly the same. The lesson here, once again, is this: e-mails ever really get deleted permanently and, if you're being shady or doing something unethical, make a phone call, talk with the person in a dark alley, or send them a letter that they can promptly discard. Don't send an e-mail!

Of course, S&P's investment-grade ratings on CDOs stuffed with dodgy loans turned out to be wildly optimistic, and the house of cards has done more than falter -- it's brought down Bear Stearns and wreaked havoc on the economy.

McGraw-Hill's S&P (MHP) to face tougher regulation in the EU

 MHP logoMcGraw-Hill (NYSE: MHP) shares opened lower today, but have rebounded as the day moved on after the European Union Internal Market Commissioner announced that bond and credit rating agencies, including MHP's Standard & Poor's, will face mandatory new European Union regulation as a result of these agencies' roles in the U.S. sub-prime mortgage crisis. If you think this stock won't be rising too far in the coming months, then it could be a good time to look at a bearish hedged play on MHP.

After hitting a one-year high of $71.97 last June, the stock hit a one-year low of $33.91 in March. This morning, MHP opened at $42.87. So far today the stock has hit a low of $42.10 and a high of $43.65. As of 12:00, MHP is trading at $43.60, down $0.13 (-0.3%). The chart for MHPlooks bullish and steady.

For a bearish hedged play on this stock, I would consider an August bear-call credit spread above the $50 range. A bear-call credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of call options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. This particular trade will make an 11.1% return in two months as long as MHP is below $50 at August expiration. McGraw-Hill would have to rise by more than 14% before we would start to lose money.

MHP hasn't been above $50 since October and has shown resistance around $45 recently. This trade could be risky if the company's earnings (due out in late-July) are a positive surprise, but even if that happens, this position could be protected by resistance MHP might find at its 200 day moving average, which is currently around $44 and falling.

Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in MHP.

Analyst initiations: MHP, CRIS, DPS, CQB, IRM and AZDDF

MOST NOTEWORTHY: McGraw-Hill, Curis and Azure Dynamics were today's noteworthy initiations:
  • Jefferies initiated McGraw-Hill (NYSE: MHP) with a Buy rating and $49 target. The firm believes the downturn in credit markets has already been fully priced into shares and expects the stock to gain momentum throughout 2008 in anticipation of liquidity returning to credit markets.
  • RBC Capital initiated Curis (NASDAQ: CRIS) with an Outperform rating and $2.50 target based on the company's partnership with Genentech (NYSE: DNA) and potential upside from its pipeline.
  • Merriman started Azure Dynamics (OTC: AZDDF) with a Buy rating. The firm believes the company's focus is where customers see the most benefit from a medium-duty hybrid or market-appropriate solutions and finds the stock attractively valued.
OTHER INITIATIONS:

Analyst upgrades: SIRI, RSH, MHP, IBKC, BOOM and BRL

MOST NOTEWORTHY: IberiaBank, Dynamic Materials and Barr Pharmaceuticals were today's noteworthy upgrades:
  • Keefe Bruyette upgraded shares of IberiaBank (NASDAQ: IBKC) to Market Perform from Underperform after the company announced that Pulaski has assumed the insured deposits of ANB Financial of Bentonville, Arkansas.
  • KeyBanc upgraded Dynamic Materials (NASDAQ: BOOM) to Buy from Hold citing stability in base business, valuation, and the added benefit associated with a European competitor being acquired.
  • Cowen raised Barr Pharma (NYSE: BRL) to Outperform from Neutral citing the recent pullback.
OTHER UPGRADES:
  • Goldman added McGraw-Hill (NASDAQ: MHP) to its Conviction Buy List.
  • RBC Capital raised RadioShack (NYSE: RSH) to Sector Perform from Underperform.
  • Sirius Satellite (NASDAQ: SIRI) was upgraded at Merrill Lynch to Neutral from Sell.

Early analyst calls: SIRI, EDS ...

Merrill Lynch upgraded Sirius (NASDAQ: SIRI) to "neutral" from "sell" according to Briefing.com. The news service also reports that Citigroup downgraded EDS (NYSE: EDS) from "outperform" from "market perform".

Goldman Sachs downgraded ITV to "sell" from "neutral," according to MarketWatch.

McGraw-Hill (NYSE: MHP) and Moody's (NYSE: MCO) were both started as "buy" in new coverage at Jefferies, according to 24/7 Wall St.

Was S&P right to call the bottom of the subprime collapse?

Bloomberg News reports that McGraw Hill Co.'s (NYSE: MHP) Standard & Poor's (S&P) reportedly called the bottom of the subprime meltdown after estimating its toll at $285 billion, up from a previous forecast of $265 billion. It raised its estimate because of increased loss assumptions for collateralized debt obligations (CDOs). And it claims that, "The bulk of writedowns may have already been taken."

Maybe, maybe not. S&P is not exactly objective about this. It was among the ratings agencies that caused the problem in the first place. How so? As I posted, back when the $6.1 trillion MBS market was booming, investment banks would pit rating agencies against each other to see which one would give a AAA rating to the toxic waste they were brewing. If S&P won the contest, it would get the lucrative fee from the investment bank.

S&P and its peers made good money by lending their credibility to the firms they were supposed to rate objectively in exchange for those fees. And when the MBS market began to collapse, the ratings agencies suddenly realized that there was no more new ratings business to be had. So they had to go plan B -- trying to salvage their reputations by downgrading the MBSs that they had previously blessed. This reinforced the collapse of the MBS market.

Continue reading Was S&P right to call the bottom of the subprime collapse?

Newspaper wrap-up: Investigated ingredient in Baxter's generic heparin drug made in China

MAJOR PAPERS:
OTHER PAPERS:
WEB SITES:

S&P looks to fix credit rating problems -- too little, too late?

Standard & Poors, a division of McGraw-Hill (NYSE: MHP), has joined Moody's (NYSE: MCO) and Fitch in announcing reforms in the wake of the criticism for their role in the subprime fiasco.

S&P says it will hire an ombudsman to investigate conflicts of interest and bring in an outside firm to look at compliance and ethics-related issues. Lead analysts will be rotated from time to time and the company will consider a slew of new factors: liquidity, volatility, correlation and recovery, and "worst-case scenarios."

But New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo isn't buying it: "The supposed reforms announced today by Standard & Poor's and by Moody's on Tuesday are too little, too late. Both S.&P. and Moody's are attempting to make piecemeal change that seem more like public relations window-dressing than systemic reform."

From an investor's standpoint, I'm inclined to agree with Mr. Cuomo. Moody's carries a market cap of nearly $10 billion, but its entire business depends on the willingness of investors to take its ratings and analysis seriously.

But over the past year or so, the "work" of the ratings agencies has been exposed as pretty much a joke. It will take a lot more than this to recover the company's reputation.

Before the bell: Will stocks rebound today?

Stock futures were positive this morning, indicating U.S. stocks could be poised for a rebound today after suddenly plunging in late session trading Tuesday into correction. However, futures are now mixed, looking for direction. With no economic data on the docket, investors will focus on the start of earnings season and how a slowing U.S. economy could affect corporate profits. The market is very sensitive these days, though, and could react negatively to a number of news, including increasing oil prices.

On Tuesday, a late-day sell-off was caused by fears that Countrywide Financial (NYSE: CFC) would file for bankruptcy (these were denied by CFC and this morning CFC shares are up over 10% in premarket trading), and AT&T (NYSE: T)'s pessimistic outlook about consumer spending. The Dow industrials fell 238 points, or 1.86%, the Nasdaq Composite dropped nearly 59 points, or 2.35% -- this was the Nasdaq's eighth consecutive drop -- and the S&P 500 lost nearly 26 points, or 1.84%.

Oil prices rose to mid $96 a barrel Wednesday ahead of the weekly crude inventories report due out today at 10:30 a.m. EST. Analysts are expecting the report will show crude oil stockpiles fell last week.

Continue reading Before the bell: Will stocks rebound today?

How ratings agencies could cost us trillions

The New York Times reports that McGraw-Hill Co.'s (NYSE: MHP) Standard & Poor's (S&P) has downgraded bond insurer ACA Financial Guaranty Corporation from A to CCC, a sub-investment grade. S&P is saying that ACA's financial guarantee is worthless and thus bond holders must write-down the assets ACA insured.

As of September, ACA insured $7 billion in municipal and $43 billion in corporate debt. S&P's downgrade could cost Merrill Lynch & Co. (NYSE: MER) $3 billion and Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (NYSE: CM) estimates it will take a $2 billion write-down.

A few decades from now when economic historians look back on the current financial market implosion, there will be books written about the role that ratings agencies played in blowing up the bubble and then bursting it. That's because the ratings agencies competed with each other to offer the highest ratings to bundles of loans such as Collateralized Debt Obligations (CDOs). Now that this market has collapsed, the ratings agencies see no profit in rating new CDOs so they're trying to salvage their reputations by bending over backwards to downgrade those same debt instruments.

Continue reading How ratings agencies could cost us trillions

Best Stocks for 2008: Value investor votes for McGraw-Hill (MHP)

For 25 years, Steven Halpern, editor of TheStockAdvisors.com, has surveyed the leading financial newsletter advisors asking for their favorite stocks for the coming year. This article is one of 100+ ideas in the Best Stocks for 2008 report.

"McGraw-Hill (NYSE: MHP) is my top conservative pick for 2008," says Nathan Slaughter, editor of Half-Priced Stocks. "If you want to beat the market in 2008, then you might start with the one company that actually owns the market, or at least the S&P 500 Index; McGraw holds the keys to the widely used stock barometer, as well as other benchmarks from the ubiquitous Standard & Poor's family.

"From futures contracts to ETFs, there is a staggering $5 trillion of investable assets linked to these indices -- which generate piles of recurring royalty and licensing revenues.

"Elsewhere, the firm is also a leading provider of textbooks and other supplemental learning materials. There are roughly 55 million students enrolled in grades K-12, and state governments currently spend more than $8,500 per student each year -- a total that is forecast to hit $11,000 within the next seven years.

Continue reading Best Stocks for 2008: Value investor votes for McGraw-Hill (MHP)

A new look for BusinessWeek (MHP)

McGraw-Hill Companies' (NYSE: MHP) BusinessWeek, suffering under the same surfeit of advertising bedeviling the rest of the magazine industry, is going in for an extreme makeover, according to Leon Lazaroff of Bloomberg. Look for more feature articles and less lifestyle coverage. Cosmetic changes will include typography, logo and graphics. Weight is not an issue, as it's already Kate Moss-thin.

The move comes in response to a 20% decline in ad sales in the first half of 2007, compared to the same duration in 2006. In contrast, the affiliated web site, BusinessWeek.com, continues to expand its ad revenue. The magazine slots in MHP's information & Media sector, which brought in $223.1 million in revenue in the second quarter of this year, with $14.7 million in operating profit for a margin of 5.9%.

McGraw-Hill will announce its third-quarter earnings next Thursday, which would be an excellent time for it to roll out the vamped-up version of BusinessWeek.

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Last updated: July 09, 2009: 08:42 PM

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