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Will Samsung save Micron?

Shares in chip-maker Micron Technology, Inc. (NYSE: MU) are trading higher on rumors that Samsung Electronics may buy part of their business. The South Korean Electronics giant is denying the report. Micron Technology of the U.S. is the world's leading producer of CMOS image-sensing chips. Micron three years ago invested heavily in image-sensor chips as a hedge against fluctuations in demand and prices of memory chips. Business has been very week as prices for these chips have plummeted. That being said, chip-makers have started cutting production to create better pricing.

Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) analyst Atif Malik said he understood why investors are getting excited about a potential price rebound for Micron shares as chip makers are starting to cut production in some less-profitable types of chips.

While Samsung denies the rumors, I wouldn't be surprised if a deal gets done. Why? Because in October Samsung bought Israeli non-memory chip developer TransChip Inc. to help strengthen its research and development capability in the CMOS chip business.

With Micron shares down more than 35% from their 52 week high, Samsung would be able to establish a real foothold in this business for cheap.

Aaron Katsman is the lead Portfolio Manager and Managing Director of America Israel Investment Associates, LLC. and Senior Editor of IsraelNewsletter.com. Disclosure: Writer has no position in any stock mentioned as of 12/6/07.



Impact of Microsoft's Vista is about to be seen

Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT) might finally be on the verge of seeing the adoption of Vista, wrote Arnie Berman, chief technology strategist, at Cowen & Company late last week.

Berman surveyed 283 corporate IT buyers and found 47% of small- and medium-sized businesses will begin deploying Vista by December 31, this is up from 43% in a similar survey completed in February. 31% of larger enterprises plan to start rolling out Vista by December 31, up from 25% in the previous survey.

How to invest in the long-awaited Vista uptake? Play the Microsoft food chain stocks, particularly since most investors have given up on Vista's adoption, indicating this is where investors could get the most bang for the buck. Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC), Nvidia Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) and Micron Technology Inc (NYSE: MU), Berman believes will be beneficiaries of Vista's adoption. Other investment plays include memory chip maker Qimonda AG (NYSE: QI), the drive makers Seagate Technology (NYSE: STX) and Western Digital Corporation (NYSE: WDC), and Marvell Technology Group Ltd (NASDAQ: MRVL), a supplier to the drive business.

In our past Intel blogs, the Fly has suggested Intel has capacity in place to start ramping 64 megabyte processors big time, on a scale Advanced Micro Devices Inc (NYSE: AMD) does not possess. Berman points out that Intel's enterprise value/sales ratio relative to AMD is close to an all-time low, meaning Intel is cheap relative to AMD despite AMD's recent poor stock performance.

Nvidia at 19x consensus calendar 2007 results has shown the ability to deliver favorable financial surprises and could provide the solution to the greatest potential bottleneck for Vista adoption, the graphic processors.

Micron is selling close to its $10.91 book value which historically has supported the stock and memory demand will increase with the new operating system.

This week's rumor round-up: Will Amazon overpay for Netflix?

Netflix Inc (NASDAQ: NFLX)

Amazing. Amazon.com Inc (NASDAQ: AMZN), that big online retailer, sees the flix for the net. The shares keep rising for the online DVD rental company-up about 15%, highest since January-- even if their discs do come a little scratched. More than that though is while new subscribers are coming on; it's not exactly going gangbusters. Still, 6.8M is a whole lot of subscribers. Will Amazon, or someone else, overpay?

Rackable Systems Inc (NASDAQ: RACK)

Which came first: The ongoing takeover rumors or the higher stock price? Or was it that Dell Inc (NASDAQ: DELL) is said to be after Rackable, a provider of servers and storage products for high density data center deployments. Rack it up.

Feldman Mall Properties Inc (NYSE: FMP)

Word is that this real estate investment trust will look for a sale, combo or merger. They said the venerable firm of Friedman, Billings, Ramsey & Co. will help them "explore strategic alternatives." Then the stock went up.

STILL FLYING AROUND

Trump Entertainment Resorts Inc (NASDAQ: TRMP)


Dennis Gomes, whose name surfaced in March, is a one time gaming exec and regulator. He's signed a confidentiality agreement to have a look see at the firm's Atlantic City casinos. Separately, Las Vegas' Boyd Gaming Corporation (NYSE: BYD) has also been mentioned as a possible contender.

YRC Worldwide Inc (NASDAQ: YRCW)

The CEO of this Kansas-based transportation service provider has been quoted as saying that a takeover is possible. An LBO is likely. This week the shares have actively been trading up.

Dollar Tree Stores Inc (NASDAQ: DLTR)

Imagine a dollar tree where the stock keeps going up, up, up. Well, here it is, once again, a subject of takeover talk.

BUZZ

United States Steel Corporation (NYSE: X): Russia's Severstal may be prowling around...Plains Exploration & Production Company (NYSE: PXP): Takeover candidate's stock is sharply higher... Micron Technology Inc (NYSE: MU): Blackstone has interest...Ameristar Casinos Inc (NASDAQ: ASCA): A hot stock and takeover rumors abound...Nvidia Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA): Remains an LBO candidate...The First Marblehead Corporation (NYSE: FMD): The student loan business is booming and earnings growth is strong, but who would buy it?...Marriott International Inc (NYSE: MAR): A target? But where's the movement?...Oakley Inc (NYSE: OO) as a target has been around and around, and now some say it will be bought by Luxottica Group (NYSE: LUX).

Analyst upgrades 12-22-06: RIM, RedHat upgraded

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Research in Motion (RIMM) and Micron (MU) were the most noteworthy upgrades this morning:
  • Bear Stearns upgraded shares of Research in Motion Ltd. (NASDAQ:RIMM) to Outperform from Peer Perform, telling clients it sees further upside from new handset launches and continued expansion.
  • First Albany upgraded shares of Micron Technology Inc. (NYSE:MU) to Buy from Neutral following the company's first-quarter report; the firm told clients that a weak first-half of 2007 has already priced into the shares but a strong second-half of 2007 has not.
OTHER UPGRADES:
  • RBC Capital upgraded shares of Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (NYSE:CMG) to Outperform from Underperform, citing continued strong fundamentals and expectations that the company can meet or slightly beat first-quarter comp-store sales estimates.
  • Red Hat Inc. (NYSE:RHT) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at First Albany; the firm told clients that the company's Q3 report validates its thesis that the impact from Oracle Corp. (NASDAQ:ORCL) will be minimal, continued growth in RHEL deployments is likely, and pricing power is sustainable. Red hat was also upgraded by Citigroup to Hold from Sell and raised the target to $21 from $13.50.
Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

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