For the first half of 2010, almost two thirds of money managers are bullish, according to Barron's. In fact, 54% are bullish, and 5% are "very bullish." Responses suggest that the Dow Jones Industrial Average is expected to gain another 5% by the end of the year.

According to Barron's, "Today's bullish investors see the major stock indexes making steady progress through next June, amid signs the U.S. economy is on the mend after a searing recession."

Aluminum producer Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA), the first Dow Jones Industrial Component to report earnings, beat estimates when they announced after the bell -- or so the story goes. It continues that this touched off buying interest across the market that had been sorely lacking in prior sessions. There's only one problem: Alcoa's results weren't very good, and they didn't boost the market.

Alcoa opened trading today up more than 5.5% from its close yesterday, before it reported earnings. Going into the final minutes of trading, the stock was down more than 2% -- a tough reversal for those buying on the pop. The company reported a headline EPS of -$0.32, or -$0.26 excluding restructuring charges. This compared to analysts' consensus of -$0.38 on $3.9 billion in revenue.

Newmont Mining (NYSE: NEM) is one of plays that was perhaps bid-up prematurely by Wall Street, and as a result the party has already begun. Nevertheless, the view from view argues that the mining company's upside and the stock's recent pull-back warrant adding shares at this stage. Here's why:

In general, analysts expect a 5-7% sales gain in FY2009, aided by higher average prices for gold, which should offset lower prices for copper.

The U.S. stock market remains one characterized by considerable risk: It has shown some internal strength recently, but all its takes is one sub-expectations earnings report -- or one public policy error in Washington -- and the bears will be out in force again. Hence, discretion is the order of the day, with a premium placed on companies with demonstrated business models. With this in mind, Freeport-McMoRan is worth a review.

Freeport (NYSE: FCX) is a preferred miner due to its copper and molybdenum operations. Yes, the gold operation is sexy, but the copper operation is the backbone here, with the company boasting about 100 billion pounds of proven and probable copper reserves.

Aluminum giant Alcoa (NYSE:AA) announced on Feb. 12 that it was selling its holdings of iron ore company Rio Tinto (NYSE:RTP)to Chinalco for about $1 billion, nearly $700 million more than the current value of the holdings. And speculation has begun to surface that Chinalco will make a play for Alcoa, one of the world's largest producers of aluminum.

This post was written by Minyanville contributor Lance Lewis.

Banro (NYSE: BAA) jumped 13% yesterday after the company announced that it had finally completed its bankable feasibility study on its Twangiza project and proved up nearly 4 mln ounces of its 10 mln ounce resource. Thus, we can now calculate an NAV for BAA.

BAA has no debt. So, assuming $1,000 gold, 3.67 mln ounces of Proven & Probable reserves, an average cash cost of $429 per ounce over the life of the mine (which is based on the feasibility study), and the estimated $410 mln required for cap ex, we get an NAV of almost $15 a share (which gives zero value to the company's current cash balance of around $20 mln and its remaining 5.6 mln ounce resource at Twangiza, not to mention the resource estimates at its other properties).

Coal-mining concern Alpha Natural Resources (NYSE: ANR) is trading sharply lower today after cutting its full-year earnings and production forecasts. Due to lower coal demand from steelmakers, ANR now expects net income of $175 million to $185 million for fiscal 2008. Previously, the commodity firm predicted full-year earnings of $230 million to $270 million.

As a result of waning demand, shipments of metallurgical coal will be reduced by about 500,000 tons in the fourth quarter. Going forward, ANR stated, "the outlook for metallurgical coal sales shipments and pricing will remain uncertain until such time as the financial markets begin improving and economic activity shows tangible signs of recovery."

Additionally, Alpha said it will close its mining operations at West Virginia's Whitetail Kittanning mining complex. The company is citing "adverse geologic conditions and regulatory requirements" for the shutdown, which will occur at the end of December. A total of 329 employees will be affected by the closure.

Just call it another data point confirming the breadth and depth of the global economic slowdown. Freeport-McMoRan Wednesday suspended its dividend and cut production by 5% in 2009 and 11% in 2010, due to a sharp decline in prices, the company announced (pdf).

Freeport said it will reduce capital spending by $1.2 billion, a gargantuan 50% reduction from its previous estimate for 2009 capital spending. The company also suspended its $2 annual dividend.

Shares of Freeport (NYSE: FCX) Tuesday closed up 91 cents to $21.82 amid a broader market rally, but are declining $4.02, or over 18%, in premarket trading (8:27 am).

For the cutbacks, Freeport cited a large decrease in key commodity prices stemming from declining demand. Copper prices have declined to an average price of $1.69 per pound in November, compared to a nine-month average of $3.61 per pound as of September. Molybdenum prices have decline to $9 per pound as of December, compared to about $30 per pound in mid-October.

On more than one occasion, "my pal Warren" has commented that folks have no fear about buying stocks at the top of the market but give them a chance to buy that same stock on sale at half the price and they have no interest.

Last March I was lamenting a lost opportunity to buy Anglo American ADR (NASDAQ: AAUK) at $26 or $27 before it popped to $34 a share. I wanted it at a price it never dropped to, and I did not get it (Chasing Value: Anglo American -- great pick, but alas...).

Then the market started dropping, and dropping some more until finally things were looking pretty bad and I decided it was time to make my play. I recently bought in at $11.69. and it has bounced up and down since then, closing on Thursday November 6, at $10.37, dropping from $12.13 a day earlier.

Since last spring the bottom has fallen out of the commodities market. If you have pondered the idea of buying into a diversified fund focused on mining and mineral assets, then the following profile may depict a stock for you.

• The UK-based company owns significant stakes in global producers of platinum (75%, Anglo Platinum) and diamonds (45%, De Beers S.A.). In addition, Anglo American has interests in ferrous and base metals, and industrial minerals; it also is one of the world's largest independent coal miners. Though it used to have a majority stake in AngloGold Ashanti, Anglo American has reduced its share to 17%. The company controls assets around the world.

Just a few metrics that may be of interest: AAUK is paying over a 5% yield, has a forward P/E ratio 3.2, and almost 30% profit margins. As the following 10-year chart indicates, the stock is almost down to where it was way back then.



Given that the world is printing money unabashedly, and that China and India are not going to stop growing, I think the current prices for coal, gas, diamonds, gold, silver, platinum and all else are destined to go up dramatically after we all take a deep breath. I have no idea what will happen in the short term, but in the long term I believe inflationary pressures will be significant.

Owning a company like Anglo American that is diversified around the world with significant exposure to both precious and semi-precious materials, as well as basic commodities, seems like a good place to invest, if you have the courage to buy it on sale as I believe it is now.

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. He writes the columns Chasing Value and Serious Money. Disclosure: I own shares of AAUK.

"Platinum is a picture-perfect image of a classic bull market that's getting more exciting by the day," says resource expert Eric Roseman.

In his Commodity Trend Alert the advisor explains, "Prices continue to explode higher amid the largest supply shortfall for any precious metal this decade. As such, I'm urging my readers to buy the new E-Tracs UBS Long Platinum ETN (NYSE: PTM)."

"Find me a commodity -- any commodity -- that's approaching or extending a net supply deficit situation and I'll compel you to buy that commodity ahead of a major rally; that's what's happening now to platinum. Indeed, no other precious metal is suffering more from growing supply shortages since last year -- and it's getting worse.

"Platinum production in South Africa, which accounts for about 80% of global output, declined 4.9% to 5.04 million ounces in 2007 as a result of smelter closures and a host of safety issues that interrupted mining operations.

"The agriculture, mining and oil and gas businesses are booming globally, and mining firms have been plagued by a lack of available earth-moving and subsurface mining equipment," notes Paul Tracy.

To benefit from this trend, the editor of The StreetAuthority Market Advisor recommends Ritchie Brothers Auctioneers (NYSE: RBA), the "largest auctioneer of used industrial and agricultural equipment in the world."

"The prices of wheat, soybeans, corn and other basic food commodities are surging to new multi-year highs. There are two main drivers of this trend: rising consumption of agricultural commodities in emerging markets and increased consumption of crops for biofuels production.

"The developing world is also driving demand for petroleum products and other raw materials. A building boom in China, for example, is driving demand for steel, copper and aluminum used in building construction.

"One problem holding back these industries in recent years is a shortage of equipment. Mining firms have been plagued by a lack of available earth-moving and subsurface mining equipment. And agricultural products producers need tractors, combines and other equipment that are in short supply globally to efficiently run their farms.

U.S. industrial production fell 0.2% in May, the U.S. Federal Reserve announced Tuesday, its third drop in the past four months.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had expected industrial production to rise 0.1% in May. Industrial production fell 0.7% in April.

Further, manufacturing output was unchanged in May, the Fed said, while utilities output declined 1.8%, and mine output increased 0.1%. The Fed added that factory output was boosted by a small pickup in the index for motor vehicles and parts; the end in late May of a strike at a parts producer had little effect on vehicle output for the month.

Also, capacity utilization declined to 79.4% in May from 79.6% in 79.7 in April. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had expected capacity utilization to total 79.7 in May. The May utilization rate is 1.6 percentage points below its average for 1972-2007 and is at its lowest level since November 2004. Capacity utilization totaled 80.3% in March and 80.9% one year ago, in May 2007.

U.S. economy operating well below capacity

Economist David H. Wang said U.S. industrial production continues to operate well below capacity. "We are continuing to see a downward path of industrial production and this is not a good sign. Industrial production has declined for about one year, and this will weigh on commercial activity. It's also a major job loss area," Wang said. "The U.S. economy is complex and multi-faceted but it's hard for GDP to grow without industrial production increasing."

Readers of this space know that the investment bias is toward large-cap companies with demonstrated business models which have a competitive advantage in established markets, preferably with a favorable global trend as a support. And with the above in mind, Agnico-Eagle Mines is worth a look.

Agnico-Eagle Mines (NYSE: AEM) is a Canada-based gold producer with mining operations located in northwestern Quebec, mine construction projects in northwestern Quebec and northern Finland, and exploration and development activities in Canada, Finland, northern Mexico and the western United States.

Analysts like the fact that Agnico produces about 270,000 ounces of gold annually, and has about five million ounces of gold in proved and provable reserves.

Readers of this space know that the investment bias is toward large-cap companies with demonstrated business models which have a competitive advantage in established markets, preferably with a favorable global trend as a support. And with the above in mind, Joy Global is worth a review.

Joy Global (NASDAQ: JOYG) makes heavy equipment for the mining industry through two subsidiaries, Joy Mining Machinery and P & H Mining Equipment.

JOYG is well-positioned to benefit from two global trends that show little sign of ending: infrastructure development (which requires copper, among other commodities) and energy usage (which requires increased use of coal for electric power generation.)

Analysts like JOYG's sector-leading high-teens margins, superior management team, and revenue mix that tilts toward its lucrative aftermarket parts and service business. In addition, it appears that 2007's supply chain issues have been addressed and resolved.

Readers of this space know that the investment bias is toward large-cap companies with demonstrated business models and who have a competitive advantage in established markets, preferably with a favorable global trend as a support. And with the above in mind, Bucyrus International is worth a review.

Bucyrus International, Inc. (Nasdaq: BUCY) manufactures and markets a variety of machines used in surface mining, and provides aftermarket parts and service for these machines. It has one of the largest installed bases of said machines in the world, as measured by replacement cost.

Demand for the BUCY's products is being driven by increased demand for surface mined commodities such as copper (in South America), oil sands (Canada), and coal (China, United States, India, Australia, South Africa and Russia). As one might sense, mining opportunities in China and India represent long-term business opportunities for the company.