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Freeport's copper operation is set to shine again

The U.S. stock market remains one characterized by considerable risk: It has shown some internal strength recently, but all its takes is one sub-expectations earnings report -- or one public policy error in Washington -- and the bears will be out in force again. Hence, discretion is the order of the day, with a premium placed on companies with demonstrated business models. With this in mind, Freeport-McMoRan is worth a review.

Freeport (NYSE: FCX) is a preferred miner due to its copper and molybdenum operations. Yes, the gold operation is sexy, but the copper operation is the backbone here, with the company boasting about 100 billion pounds of proven and probable copper reserves.

Continue reading Freeport's copper operation is set to shine again

Freeport suspends dividend, cuts production on lower demand, prices

Just call it another data point confirming the breadth and depth of the global economic slowdown. Freeport-McMoRan Wednesday suspended its dividend and cut production by 5% in 2009 and 11% in 2010, due to a sharp decline in prices, the company announced (pdf).

Freeport said it will reduce capital spending by $1.2 billion, a gargantuan 50% reduction from its previous estimate for 2009 capital spending. The company also suspended its $2 annual dividend.

Shares of Freeport (NYSE: FCX) Tuesday closed up 91 cents to $21.82 amid a broader market rally, but are declining $4.02, or over 18%, in premarket trading (8:27 am).

For the cutbacks, Freeport cited a large decrease in key commodity prices stemming from declining demand. Copper prices have declined to an average price of $1.69 per pound in November, compared to a nine-month average of $3.61 per pound as of September. Molybdenum prices have decline to $9 per pound as of December, compared to about $30 per pound in mid-October.

Continue reading Freeport suspends dividend, cuts production on lower demand, prices

Freeport is a top-tier miner

Readers of this space know that the investment bias is toward large-cap companies with demonstrated business models and a competitive advantage in established markets, preferably with a favorable global trend as a support. And with this in mind, Freeport-McMoran is worth a review.

Globally-oriented miner Freeport-McMoran (NYSE: FCX) is the world's second-largest copper producer and a major miner of gold and molybdenum. Further, FCX's purchase of Phelps Dodge in 2007 means that it has proven and probable reserves of: copper, 75 billion pounds; gold, 128 million ounces; and molybdenum, 1.9 billion pounds, net minority interests.

But perhaps most important, Freeport is one of only eight companies that have the economies of scale to compete in the global mining sector of the early 21st century. Look for continued merger/acquisition talk in the sector, but don't think of Freeport as an acquisition play: FCX has a large portion of the global copper market, geographical diversification, and enduring relationships with key customers, among other strengths, to continue to perform well in the years ahead. The Reuters F2008/F2009 EPS consensus estimates for FCX are $10.07/$11.07.

Further FCX's p/e of 12 is reasonable given its advantageous market position and prospects for growth. Don't expect Freeport's ascent to be perfect and calm, given its dependence on commodity prices, but that does not blot-out the secular trends that point to good things for FCX's in the years ahead.

The risks? Freeport's copper segment would be hurt by a global economic downturn.

The First Call mean rating for FCX is: Buy [19 firms]. Mean 2008 target: $117.00 [high: $135, low: $65.00].

Stock Analysis:
Freeport is a moderate-risk stock not suitable for low-risk investors. Investors should expect above-average volatility with FCX. Don't buy FCX if your portfolio already contains a mining/mineral component. Investors with an investment horizon longer than two years should be rewarded from FCX's shares. Sell / Stop Loss if you were to buy shares in this company: $68.

Disclosure: Lazzaro has no positions in stocks. In addition to private real estate holdings, he owns corporate and municipal bonds, and cash certificates of deposit.

Freeport: Global reach, now at a bargain price

The market's choppy/consolidating (or perhaps worse) period continues. No single market participant can change that reality, but you can make the best of it -- specifically by looking for bargains.

Miner Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE: FCX) is one such opportunity. Freeport is the world's second-largest copper producer and a major miner of gold and molybdenum. Further, FCX's purchase of Phelps Dodge in March 2007 means that the company now has proven and probable reserves of: copper, 75 billion pounds; gold, 128 million ounces; and molybdenum, 1.9 billion pounds, net minority interests.

But perhaps most important, Freeport is one of only eight companies that have the economies of scale to compete in the global mining sector of the early 21st century. Look for continued merger/acquisition talk in the sector, but don't think of Freeport as an acquisition play: FCX has a large portion of the global copper market, geographical diversification, and enduring relationships with key customers, among other strengths, to continue to perform well in the years ahead.

Continue reading Freeport: Global reach, now at a bargain price

Southern Peru (PCU) mines locally, but sells globally

During a period of persistent demand for minerals/commodities, considering a mining company or two makes a great deal of sense, and among these Southern Peru Copper (NYSE: PCU) is worth an evaluation.

Southern Peru is one of the largest copper mining companies in the world, and also is a large producer of molybdenum, silver and zinc. With operations in Mexico, Peru and Chile, PCU has seen steady demand for its mined products from burgeoning Asia, as well as from buyers in Europe and the Americas.

Further, although period labor strikes have lowered production in the past, PCU has been able to keep production at acceptable levels, and that fact, combined strong demand for copper, along with the company's 44.9 million proven copper reserves, make PCU an inviting play.

The risks? As one might realize, PCU sells a great deal of copper to China, and if China substantially lowers its copper purchases as it started to do so this summer, copper prices would begin to soften, hurting PCU's results. The Reuters F2007/F2008 EPS consensus estimates for PCU are $9.15/$10.24.

The First Call mean rating for PCU is: Hold. (8 firms.) Mean 2007 target: $109.50. (high: $135, low: $59.80.)

Stock Analysis: Southern Peru Copper is a moderate-risk stock not suitable for low-risk investors. Investors with an investment horizon longer than 2 years should be rewarded from PCU's shares. Sell / Stop Loss: $95.

Top 20 advisors: Tom Bishop mines for value in Taseko

Last December, Thomas Bishop, editor of BI Research, chose Taseko Mining Ltd. (ASE: TGB) as his favorite stock for 2007. It rose 44% as of 6/1/07. Please see Tom's original recommendation for Taseko and his current favorite stock for the second half of the year.

On TGB, he now says, "Strong prices for copper continue to help Taseko Mining. I should also note that molybdenum is now over $33 a pound. This is about as high as it has been in recent years.

"This 'small' byproduct of the Gibraltar mine, at this rate, could kick in $30 million of gravy. Once Taseko upgrades and expands its mill, considerable additional profitability should be unleashed, which we expect in 2008.

"I still like this little company a lot, particularly now that the stock has digested its earlier run. This consolidation was in part followed a less robust than expected first quarter, which I think only creates a buying opportunity because the growth story remains intact -- if not more so. I continue to rate the stock a 'strong buy' "

See all 20 stocks the advisors picked for the second half of 2007.

Top Picks 2007: Tom Bishop bets on copper gains for Taseko

Each year Steven Halpern, editor of TheStockAdvisors.com, surveys the leading financial newsletter advisors asking for their favorite stocks for the coming year. This article is part of his 24th annual Top Picks Report.

Taseko Mines Ltd. (ASE: TGB) is the favorite speculative play for 2007 from Tom Bishop, editor of BI Research. He notes, "After living hand to mouth for five or six years during lean copper and gold prices, Taseko bought the Gibraltar mine, which it picked up for a song when copper was down in the low $0.60/lb range.

"Today copper is around $3/lb, the mine is back into production and now its cash stash, including proceeds from a $30 million convertible, is steaming towards C$100 million. The company just added about 38% to its mineral reserves, which now stand at 256 million tons (equating to a 15-year mine life) grading 0.32% copper and 0.01% molybdenum.

Note the molybdenum alone adds over $20 million to revenues annually. The company is upgrading and expanding its Gibraltar mill/production facility, and will be moving to a higher grade softer ore part of the ore body in 2007. Therefore, with mill improvements I expect production to increase 20 to 30% this year and generate about $0.65 to $0.70 of cash flow, which is not bad for a company trading at $2.60.

Continue reading Top Picks 2007: Tom Bishop bets on copper gains for Taseko

Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA-4.9910,221.95
NASDAQ-7.822,146.24
S&P 500-3.061,090.02

Last updated: November 10, 2009: 12:14 PM

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