Stocks whipped around today on mixed earnings reports and on mixed economic data from inflation to $1.294 trillion of Treasury deficit. There is still a lot of confusion and anger when it comes to the latest round of foreclosure halts and what the implications on all sides are.

Here were today's unofficial closing bell levels:

Dow Jones 11,062.48 -32.09 (-0.29%)
S&P 500 1,176.00 +2.19 (0.19%)
Nasdaq 2,467.32 +31.94 (1.31%)

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By Hilary Kramer

When you think about the root cause of the financial debacle of the last years, one word jumps out: mortgages. Depending who you listen too, there were too many loans, too little collateral, overaggressive lending all playing a part.

However, with the economy now improving, the U.S. housing markets are beginning to gain a firmer footing. Those companies offering protection to the participants in this market, and that had gotten hammered over the last few years, are now in a position to rise from their lows.

One such firm is The PMI Group (PMI).

Market absolutists' complaints notwithstanding, the U.S. Treasury's plan to shore-up Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) and Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE) will stabilize the bond and credit markets, but it's unlikely to sidetrack a mortgage system revision by the U.S. Congress, in one economist's interpretation.

"[U.S. Treasury Secretary Paulson has acted, now is the time for [U.S. Rep.] Barney Frank to react," economist David H. Wang told BloggingStocks Monday.

At issue: who pays for mortgage risk?

At issue is what constitutes acceptable mortgage risk by banks and mortgage lenders whose loans or asset-backed securities are insured by the U.S. Government or government service enterprises, Wang said.

"The way the system was configured, if banks and mortgage lenders made high-risk loans and won, they collected huge profits. If they made high-risk loans and lost, the government, or the taxpayer, bore the cost," Wang said. "This system is untenable."

What's one likely revision? Wang said he believes a "two-tier mortgage system will emerge." The first group will include loans/mortgages offered by banks "for specialized clients/situations." This batch of mortgages and assets tied to them would not be backed by the government or by GSE insurance, he said.

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says Fannie and Freddie aren't the true culprits here.

The blowhards and bluff artists and the Gang of Four -- Ambac (NYSE: ABK) (Cramer's Take), MBIA (NYSE: MBI) (Cramer's Take), MGIC (NYSE: MTG) (Cramer's Take) and PMI (NYSE: PMI) (Cramer's Take) -- truly have blood on their hands for this moment. So do the ratings agencies, the mortgage insurers and the salespeople who packaged undocumented loans and pushed buying homes with no money down.

The whole apparatus stinks and we are now seeing the unwinding, but I think that the false assurances created by the Gang of Four and their insistence to not worry made everyone way too complacent. Their glib promises as well as the incredibly lax work of the ratings agencies, S&P and Moody's, enabled the whole edifice to be propped up.

And once it was clear to them that they needed more capital, they chose to forgo the window and attack the shorts. Had they raised the capital they needed and had the ratings agencies said they can't bless any more of this junk, we might have never been in this spot.

My Ph.D. adviser David E. RePass, professor emeritus at the University of Connecticut, used to frequently recite an axiom about the U.S. Congress that rings true, regardless of era, or circumstance.

"Congress does not react, unless not reacting will result in the wrath of the American voter."

Well, concerning housing, it looks like Congress sees the wrath of the American voter ahead because the legislative body is starting to react.

Two measures working their way through Congress may ease the housing crisis. The first, a bipartisan Senate measure, is a modest step to address the rise in home foreclosures, The New York Times reported Friday.

Groucho Marx once remarked that whenever things start to look really dark, remain calm, don't panic, and above all, turn on a light.

Given the barrage of financial stresses battering the credit and equity markets these days, consumers, economists and investors alike could use some of Groucho's levity, and some light. In this case the light may appear in the form of the Federal Housing Administration.

What's old is suddenly new

The Federal Housing Administration, the once-viewed-as-antiquated, irrelevant Great Depression-era government agency, is suddenly emerging as the centerpiece of government efforts to bolster the U.S. housing market, reported The Wall Street Journal (subscription required.)

The FHA has become the cheapest, and in many cases, the only alternative for borrowers who can make only a small down payment, and the agency is rapidly gaining market share.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson is on the wires again, this time predicting that the number of potential home-loan defaults "will be significantly bigger" in 2008 than in 2007.

In an interview with The Wall Street Journal (subscription required), Paulson said, "The nature of the problem will be significantly bigger next year because 2006 (mortgages) had lower underwriting standards, no amortization, and no down payments. He added that "We'll watch carefully mortgages that will be reset."

Home prices fall

Paulson's comments came before the National Association of Realtors announced that home prices had fallen in 51 of 150 U.S. metropolitan areas in Q3, with the median sales price falling to $220,800 in Q3 2007, compared to $225,300 in Q3 2006. The NAR also announced that home sales fell to an annualized rate of 5.42 million units, including single-family homes and condominiums, compared to a 6.29-million-unit annualized rate a year ago.

Last March, I wrote a post which suggested that the mortgage insurance industry would take a hit as a result of the subprime mortgage meltdown. Today's New York Times [registration required] suggests that prediction was correct -- two leading mortgage insurers are writing down the value of their subprime mortgage subsidiary.

Specifically, the Mortgage Guaranty Insurance Corporation (NYSE: MGIC) said last night that it would write down its $516 million investment in Credit-Based Asset Servicing and Securitization (C-Bass) -- possibly to zero. Radian Group Inc. (NYSE: RDN) which has a $518 million stake in C-Bass, also said it might have to write off its investment completely.

Meanwhile, NovaStar Financial Group (NYSE: NFI) whose subprime mortgages MGIC insures, has fallen 91% to $10.83 from the split-adjusted $116 at which it traded in December when I suggested shorting it.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Chico's FAS, Inc (CHS), Live Nation (LYV) and Clear Channel Communications, Inc (CCU) were some of today's notable upgrades:

• Friedman, Billings, Ramsey upgraded shares of Chico's FAS Inc (NYSE: CHS) to Market Perform from Underperform and raised their target to $25 from $17 on valuation.

• Matrix USA upgraded Live Nation (NYSE: LYV) to Hold from Sell on valuation.

• Sanders Morris upgraded Clear Channel Communications (NYSE: CCU) to Hold from Sell, as the firm believes the disapproval by holders to sell the company will result in shares trading in the $34-$37 range.

OTHER UPGRADES:

• Lehman upgraded PPL Corp (NYSE: PPL) to Overweight from Equal-Weight.

• Friedman, Billings, Ramsey continued to recommend shares of Urban Outfitters, Inc (NASDAQ: URBN) with an Outperform rating as the firm has seen consistent progress at both the company's divisions throughout March. Friedman added Urban Outfitters to its Top Picks list.

• JP Morgan raised Sonic Corp (NASDAQ: SONC) to an Overweight rating from Neutral, and believes shares have priced in softer Q2 sales that were pre-announced late-February.

• Martha Stewart Living Omnimedia, Inc (NYSE: MSO) was upgraded at Bear Stearns to Peer Perform from Underperform.

• Morgan Stanley upgraded Mylan Laboratories (NYSE: MYL) to Neutral from Sell.

• Goldman Sachs upgraded the Mortgage Insurance sector to Neutral from Cautious.

Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

Analysis provided by Paul Foster of Theflyonthewall.com:

U.S. stocks are mixed in lower into tomorrow's November employment report. The Dow was down 0.24%, NASDAQ 100 down 0.55%, S&P 500 down 0.33%, and the 10 year bond rates rose to 4.485%. The CBOE VIX was up 0.89 to 12.22.

The PMI Group, Inc. (NYSE: PMI), a provider of credit enhancement products that promotes home ownership, is recently up .97 to $45.40. PMI owns 50% of CMG Mortgage Insurance Company, which offers mortgage insurance for loans. FBRC says Washington "lawmakers appear close to passing the tax extenders bill that includes MI tax deductibility. If passed, MI tax deductibility will be a positive development for the mortgage insurance space as it would remove a competitive advantage enjoyed by 80-10-10 loans, which are the MI's primary competition." The vote is expected on 12/8/06. PMI call option volume of 6,141 contracts compares to put volume of 6,758 contracts according to Track Data. PMI over all option implied volatility of 21 is near its 26-week average, suggesting non-directional price risks.

Harley-Davidson, Inc. (NYSE:HOG) January implied volatility was elevated at 32, indicating movement. HOG was recently trading at $71.89. GSCO said "we think concerns over rising inventories and discounts on 2006 models could put downward pressure on the shares creating a trading opportunity over the near term. We would use any weakness in share performance to the high $60/low $70 range as a solid entry point." HOG January option implied volatility of 32 was above its 26-week average of 26 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price fluctuations.

Radian Group Inc. (NYSE:RDN), a provider of mortgage insurance products and services, is up $0.92 to $54.95. FBRC says Washington "lawmakers appear close to passing the tax extenders bill that includes MI tax deductibility." The vote is expected on 12/8/06. RDN call option volume of 5,086 contracts compares to put volume of 4,284 contracts according to Track Data. RDN December option implied volatility of 32 is above its 26-week average of 26, suggesting larger price risks.

Option volume leaders today were Ford Motor Company (NYSE:F), Boston Scientific Corp. (NYSE:BSX) , Oracle Corporation (NASDAQ:ORCL), QUALCOMM, Inc. (NASDAQ:QCOM) and Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN).