Investment-grade commercial real estate prices gained 4.4% in the third quarter of this year. But, it's hard to tell if -- like brief blips of hope we've seen in consumer spending, unemployment and even luxury meals in London -- this is a change in the market or just a tease.

This increase in the MIT Center for Real Estate's transaction-based index (TBI) is the first up-tick in more than a year and the biggest gain since the middle of 2007. One quarter doesn't make a trend, cautions David Geltner, director of research at the MIT Center for Real Estate, but he says, "this is the strongest sign of a bottom that we've had in two years." The TBI reached 36.5% below its 2007 peak last quarter, up from 39% from the high-water mark in mid-2007.

If you've become comfortable with the current state of the housing market ... don't. Economists at Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) and Bank of America's Merrill Lynch (NYSE: BAC) say there's still plenty of risk in the housing market.

Alec Phillips, the head of Goldman's Washington office, said, "The risk of renewed home price declines remains significant." His "working assumption" is a drop of between 5% and 10% by the middle of next year.

Some of the jobs that have disappeared through this recession are gone forever, it seems. Even when the market turns, and even gains momentum, we could be stuck with a fairly weak employment market for a while. The recovery will take longer than we'd like, putting more distance between now and the top of the next market run. We've lost 7.2 million jobs since December 2007, and the predictions of some economists that we'll get them back by 2014 may actually seem optimistic.

Unemployment is at 9.8%, and it's expected to clear 10% early next year. Then, we have the specter of a jobless recovery with which to contend. "Full employment" is often considered to be an unemployment rate of 4% to 5%, but it could be a while before we get there. The last downturn, following the dotcom bust, resulted in a peak unemployment rate of 6.3% in 2003 ... and we're already well past that.

Why is the recovery going to be such a grind? Check out the four major reasons after the jump.

In another sign that the housing market may be emerging from its slump, applications for mortgages rose last week by a nice 12.8 percent.

The news comes from the Mortgage Bankers Association which stated that its seasonally adjusted index of mortgage applications rose to 668.5, which is the highest that the index has read since back on May 22.

There may be a new rule coming from the Fed that will make banks stronger but will hurt investors. There's a good possibility that banks will have to raise their "well-capitalized" capital requirement from 7% to 8%. The current definition of "well-capitalized" is 6% but the unofficial rate that regulators like to see is 7%. That means for every asset on the books of $100, there is now $7 of capital to back it up. With the new rule, that capital cushion would go to $8. That means the FDIC would have more protection against losses ($8 of protection is better than $7). But the question is: where do banks find the extra $1?

They can come up with it several different ways, none of which help current investors. The first, and easiest way, is to simply sell assets and lower the total size of the bank. If a bank of $1 billion has capital of $70 million, it could sell enough assets to shrink to $875 million. Then the capital base stays the same at $70 million (assuming no gain or loss on the sale of the assets) but the percentage of capital is now 8% rather than 7%.

Are things getting better on the mortgage front? From some of the recent data just published the answer is no.

In July, foreclosure filings, defined as a default notice, bank repossession, or auction sale, were up 7%. and 32% over a year earlier. This is according to Realty Trac's U.S. Foreclosure Market Report. One in every 355 homeowners had received a foreclosure filing.

It looks like the housing market is coming back, but there's still reason to be careful. In July, home resales had their highest monthly increase in at least a decade. The rush is driven in part by a tax credit that expires on November 30, 2009. The rate of sale grew 7.2%, ahead of expectations.

Last month, sales hit a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.24 million in July -- up from a 4.89 million in June. This is the fourth month in a row in which seasonally adjusted sales increased, and it was the strongest growth rate since August 2007. A Thomson Reuters survey had forecast 5 million, but the reality exceeded that.

The Street.com's Jim Cramer says that now it is all about who is going to take advantage of the opportunities.

Did anyone listen to Bill Isaac yesterday? Did anyone listen to the man that was instrumental in solving the banking crisis of 1987-1991 when he was on "Squawk Box?"

I don't think they did. If they did, they wouldn't be nearly as fretful about housing or the bank stocks or the mortgage problem or the toxic bonds as they seem to be, because Isaac talked about 1,600 banks that had to be closed and about how there simply was no place to put the bad assets at all. He talked about major banks collapsing day after day after day, the largest banks in the most important regions in the country. He talked about how hardly a day went by when a bank that they were not prepared to deal with went under because of mortgage loans.

There is "talk" that the economy is turning the corner, that the recession is history. But some of the numbers on the housing front are frankly frightening. The housing market is in quicksand and still sinking. The newest July numbers are gloomy at best. Let's take a look at them:

• Foreclosure activity jumped 7% in July from June and 32% from a year earlier.
• James J. Saccaccio of Realty Trac said: "July marks the third time in the past five months where we've seen a record set for foreclosure activity."

The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that its index of mortgage applications dropped 3.5% to 499 in the week ending August 7.

Celia Chen of Moody's Economy.com said that higher rates were responsible for the drop off in applications. A 30-year fixed mortgage, excluding fees, stood at 5.38% up .21 from the previous week. Interest rates last year were 6.57%.

Chen went on to say: "The bigger obstacle to home buying is job losses and tight qualifying conditions for borrowing."

Home prices are still under pressure due to growing foreclosures. Moody's Economy.com is expecting 3.85 million defaults this year compared with 2.7 million last year.

Deutsche Bank (NYSE: DB) expects almost half of all U.S. homeowners to be underwater -- figuratively, of course -- by 2011.

Declines in home prices and the fact that some of those difficult mortgages just aren't going away put 26% of homeowners in this situation by the end of last March, and it seems the situation is only going to get worse. Unlike the early stages of the credit crisis, which were driven by subprime mortgages, the next iteration will have a greater effect on prime mortgage borrowers, which comprise two-thirds of the loans outstanding.

There's perhaps no more accurate indicator of the state of bank lending than the stance of banks in the Northeast U.S., a region replete with high median incomes and a disproportionate share of the nation's wealth.

Three years ago, in July 2006, banks were willing to make the following deals:

• $2.5 million variable-rate loan, with up to 100% financing for 3 investment partners, for a 10-unit speculative condominium complex in Fairfield County, Connecticut.

For the time-pressed, there's no better snapshot of the housing market today, compared to three years ago, arguably, than the following:

Condo mania

In late 2006, two colleagues who own real estate holdings were considering a new venture. A bank wanted to lend them about $2.5 million to buy 10 investment condominiums in a recently-built complex. At that time, the U.S. economy was growing, the housing market was booming -- with home prices increasing by more than 15-20% per year -- and credit was widely available.

According to a report released yesterday, U.S. mortgage fraud reports increased 36% last year. According to the FBI, suspicious activity reports increased to 63,713 during fiscal 2008 from 46,717 a year ago.

California and Florida had the highest number of suspicious reports, which some attribute to the fact that the housing market has dropped and credit has dried up in those regions.

According to the agency, reports filed through March put fraud reports on track to top 70,000 during the current fiscal year ... not a good sign.

On Wednesday, federal investigators filed mortgage and accounting fraud charges against Beazer Homes USA (NYSE: BZH). The homebuilder will be able to escape prosecution because it agreed to pay $50 million to victims and to accept responsibility for its improper actions.

Beazer found itself charged thanks to its participation in a scheme designed to fraudulently increase its profits and sell homes. Reportedly, the company also participated in an accounting scheme that was designed to "smooth earnings." Thanks to these schemes, homebuyers defaulted on their loans and some neighborhoods saw home values plummet thanks to loan defaults. State and federal investigators have scrutinized Beazer since March 2007, finding that the company's "aggressive sales tactics" contributed to an "unusually high foreclosure rate in many of its local starter-home communities."