The calendar quarter winds down this week and quarterly reports are due from Apollo Group (APOL), CarMax (KMX), Global Payments (GPN), Krispy Kreme (KKD), Lennar (LEN) and McCormick (MKC). But analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters have high hopes for results from fertilizer and animal feed maker Mosaic (MOS), apparel maker Phillips Van Heusen (PVH) and discount retailer Family Dollar (FDO). So here's a look at what they anticipate from these three companies.

Mosaic

During its fiscal second quarter, Cargill agreed to distribute its stake in Mosaic, and Mosaic also said it would redeem senior notes. Analysts anticipate that the Minnesota-based potash producer will report per-share earnings of $1.07, a jump of 53.3% from the same quarter of last year. Mosaic also is expected to post revenue of $2.4 billion for the three months that ended in February. That's a 35.9% rise from a year earlier.

CBOE Volatility Index-VIX closed down 19 cents to $17.81.

Financial Select Sector (XLF) overall volatility is at 22; the 26-week average is 24.

Mosaic (MOS) April 85 and 90 calls are active on option implied volatility of 39, below its 26-week average of 43, according to Track Data, suggesting traders are taking positions into expected Q3 results on March 31.

Options Update is by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

Analyst Upgrades

• Tyson Foods (TSN) to buy from hold at Deutsche Bank.
• Carmike Cinemas (CKEC) to buy from neutral at Merriman.
• Ambow Education (AMBO) to conviction buy from neutral at Goldman.
• Johnson Controls (JCI) to overweight from equal weight at Barclays.
• Dynex Capital (DX) to outperform from market perform at JMP Securities.
• Ensco (ESV) to outperform from neutral at Credit Suisse.
• York Water (YORW) to buy from hold at Brean Murray.
• Mid-America Apartment (MAA) to market perform from underperform at FBR Capital.
• Cheniere Energy Partners (CQP) to hold from sell at Citigroup.
• Forest Oil (FST) to positive from neutral at Susquehanna.
• Tractor Supply (TSCO) to outperform from neutral at RW Baird.

Although the U.S. economy has added jobs in recent months, the unemployment rate remains uncomfortably high at 9.8%. The rate for December is due out on Friday and is expected to drop to 9.7%. However, no one seems to expect significant improvement until well into the new year.

Other economic data on this week's schedule include:

• Monday: ISM Manufacturing Index, construction spending and auto sales data

The Russian drought has caused a spike in wheat prices. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecast lower yields for the current corn crop. Worldwide the rising demand for raw agricultural products is creating a need for more production. One way to increase production is to use more fertilizer.

Enter Mosaic (MOS), the world's largest combined producer of phosphate and potash. Mosaic is sitting on a virtual gold mine. It produces about 10 million tons of phosphate and the same for potash. Business is flourishing. Quoted in Investors.com, Chief Financial Officer Larry Stranghoener said: "The supply- demand factors are quite tight in our favor. We're scrambling to produce all we can to meet demand."

Analyst Upgrades

• Citigroup upgraded Mosaic (MOS) to buy from hold and raised its price target to $78 from $64 citing improving ag fundamentals and the potential for BHP (BHP) to issue a higher bid for Potash (POT), which Citi feels would bode well for Mosaic.
• Cowen upgraded VMware (VMW) to outperform from neutral, citing recent share weakness and the company's significant growth opportunity.
• Citigroup upgraded CareFusion (CFN) with a $29 price target, citing valuation and the potential for margin expansion.
• Pfizer (PFE) was upgraded to outperform from neutral at Cowen.
• Juniper (JNPR) was upgraded to outperform from perform at Oppenheimer.
• Stryker (SYK) was upgraded to buy from gradually accumulate at Soleil.

Mosaic (MOS), an expert in agricultural fertilizers that counts Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan, Inc. (POT) as a related stock, reported fiscal first-quarter numbers Monday after the bell, but the market wasn't too pleased by them. Although net profit increased, expectations were not met. We've seen this sort of situation before; it can be painful for shareholders, but that's just the way Wall Street operates.

Take a look at the press release. Earnings per share jumped from 23 cents in last year's Q1 to 67 cents this time around. In addition, operational cash flow increased more than three times to $556.2 million.

The Mosaic Company (MOS) is slated to take its turn on the earnings stage after Monday's closing bell, with the agricultural chemical concern set to unveil its fiscal first-quarter results.

Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters are anticipating a profit of 72 cents per share, substantially higher than the company's year-ago earnings of 23 cents per share. Mosaic has a dismal history in the earnings spotlight, having fallen short of Wall Street's consensus profit expectations in three of the past four quarters.

Alcoa (AA), Marriott (MAR) and Yum! Brands (YUM) kick off the new earnings season this week. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters are looking for moderate year-over-year earnings and revenue growth in the third quarter from each of these dividend payers.

Note that Marriott and Yum! Brands have exceeded consensus estimates in recent quarters and have First Call consensus buy recommendations as well. They are also trading near their 52-week highs, while Alcoa shares are closer to the 52-week low despite a 22% rise in the past three months.

Analyst Upgrades

• Piper Jaffray upgraded Edwards Lifesciences (EW) to overweight from neutral and raised its target price for shares to $77 from $53 after The New England Journal of Medicine reported the company's PARTNER Trial met primary endpoints.
• UBS upgraded Endo Pharmaceuticals (ENDP) to buy from neutral and raised its price target to $36 from $25. UBS is positive on Endo's creative strategic deals and believes the switch to Opana TRF from Opana ER will be easy. Additionally, the analyst believes pipeline expectations are very low.
• BMO Capital upgraded Nvidia (NVDA) to outperform from market perform based on expectations that share loss in the core GPU business will stop, Tegra momentum and valuation. The firm raised its price target to $16 from $9.
• FirstEnergy (FE) and Allegheny Energy (AYE) were upgraded to outperform from neutral at Credit Suisse.
• Mylan (MYL) was upgraded to conviction buy from buy at Goldman. Warner
• Chilcott (WCRX) was upgraded to overweight from equal weight at Morgan Stanley.

"The agriculture-related stocks continue to move into my top tier of highest scoring stocks; add to this, BHP Billiton's hostile take-over bid for Potash Corp. and it is easy to see how investor interest in this segment of the market appears to be heating up," says Mike Turner.

The editor of Mastering the Markets explains, "One favorite in the sector is Mosaic (MOS). With a market capitalization of $25.2 billion, produces potash, one of the primary ingredients in fertilizer.

Analyst Upgrades

• GC Financial upgraded Microsoft (MSFT) to buy from hold, citing expectations that the company will raise its quarterly dividend by 15%. The firm upped its target for shares to $30 from $29.
• JPMorgan upgraded Agrium (AGU) to overweight from neutral, citing valuation and strengthening agricultural fundamentals. The firm raised its target for shares to $75 from $70. Note JPMorgan downgraded Mosaic (MOS) this morning to neutral from overweight.
• Susquehanna upgraded Baker Hughes (BHI) to positive from neutral based on valuation. The firm has a $53 target on the stock.
• Target (TGT) was upgraded to buy from neutral at BofA/Merrill.
• CF Industries (CF) was upgraded to conviction buy from neutral at Goldman.
• Portugal Telecom (PT) was upgraded to buy from hold at Deutsche Bank.

Call volume ramped up on The Mosaic Company (MOS) Wednesday, with roughly 22,000 contracts crossing the tape. By contrast, MOS was only expected to see about 7,300 calls change hands. Meanwhile, fewer than 3,700 puts were exchanged during the course of Tuesday's trading, revealing a distinct bias toward bullishly oriented options.

Taking a closer look at the day's volume, one speculator has high hopes for MOS to rally during the latter half of 2010. The trader constructed a long call spread by buying to open 1,500 contracts of the equity's December 45 call, and simultaneously selling to open 1,500 contracts of the December 55 call. MOS was trading just north of $40 at the time of this transaction, placing both calls out of the money.

Today's Beige Book was effectively ignored because Ben Bernanke's testimony defended the low-rate or no-rate policies that left no concern of a Fed rate-hike rush any time soon. EIA weekly inventories showed a surprise for the bullish case based on draw downs and T. Boone Pickens called for $95 oil... And earnings are so far up in most of the DJIA components.

Here were the unofficial closing bell levels:

Dow 11,123.11 +103.69 (0.94%)
Nasdaq 2,504.86 +38.87 (1.58%)
S&P 500 1,210.65 +13.35 (1.12%)

Top Analyst Calls
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Analyst Upgrades

• Morgan Joseph upgraded Cree (CREE) to buy from hold ahead of Tuesday's Q3 report. The firm, which has a $100 price target on the stock, expects LED demand to drive revenue growth as both China and the U.S. are increasingly strong.
• Janney Montgomery upgraded Salesforce.com (CRM) to buy from neutral on expectations the company will benefit from the migration of software to SaaS deployments. The firm upped its target price for shares to $94 from $67.
• Barrington upgraded Henry Schein (HSIC) to outperform from market perform, citing an attractive valuation, increased confidence in the outcome of the Butler-Schein Animal Health integration and improving momentum in dental equipment. The firm has a $74 price target for shares.
• Advance Auto Parts (AAP) was upgraded to buy from hold at BB&T.
• Red Hat (RHT) was upgraded to outperform from perform at Oppenheimer.
• UBS (UBS) was upgraded to overweight from neutral at HSBC.