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A summer of success at the box office?

I love summer, not only for the weather, but also for all the movies making their way to the multiplexes. According to this article at Marketwatch, for the first six weeks of the U.S. summer box-office season, the total gross for theatrical movies hit $1.46 billion, a statistic that represents about a 5% increase year-over-year in the comparable period. You can thank hits such as Marvel's (NYSE: MVL) Iron Man and Viacom's (NYSE: VIA) Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull for driving the nice results.

Now, I don't mean to rain on this parade, but I'm afraid I find myself in a similar frame of mind in terms of a piece I wrote back in March about the 2007 movie-business statistics. You see, I always like to look at number of tickets sold as a barometer for the true health of Hollywood. The number of tickets sold increased 1.6% to 206.2 million. The average price of a movie ticket rose 2.9% to $7.08. Now, while I am glad to see an increase this time around in terms of number of tickets sold, I don't find a 1.6% increase terribly exciting. It tells me that the theater industry still needs to convince people that it's fun to get out of the house, away from the giant televisions and the snazzy home-theater systems, and chomp on overpriced popcorn in a dark auditorium. Going to movie theaters is something that, in my opinion, can't truly be replicated in the home. A lot of people don't share that opinion, however.

The challenge for Disney (NYSE: DIS), Time Warner (NYSE: TWX), Sony (NYSE: SNE), and General Electric's (NYSE: GE) Universal is to make people feel that waiting for the DVD shouldn't be the norm. The shared experience of a movie screening is a unique part of culture, and studios need to communicate this fact through their marketing campaigns. I do think there is more work ahead for Hollywood. Focus on the number of tickets sold, that's the big metric.

Disclosure: I own Disney and GE; positions can change at any time.

Is the movie business really doing that well?

For those who love to follow the business of Hollywood -- count yours truly as one of the many -- the following Reuters article contains data of interest. It appears that 2007 was a banner year for Tinsel Town, according to numbers released by the Motion Picture Association of America. Revenues at multiplexes worldwide jumped 4.7% to $26.7 billion. In the United States, the growth was even better -- theaters at home took in $9.6 billion, good for an appreciation rate of over 5%.

But there's another side to the story. Ticket prices, you see, increased 5% in the U.S. This inflationary aspect is what essentially led to the domestic growth, for while approximately 1.4 billion tickets were sold, there was no rise in the number of tickets sold. That should be ultimately disappointing to studios at Disney (NYSE: DIS), News Corp. (NYSE: NWS), TWX (NYSE: TWX), Viacom (NYSE: VIA), Sony (NYSE: SNE), and General Electric's (NYSE: GE) NBC Universal. Oh, and here's another not-so-impressive item: the average cost to produce a film and then promote it came in at nearly $107 million. This statistic represented an increase of 6.3%.

Continue reading Is the movie business really doing that well?

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Last updated: November 14, 2009: 09:18 PM

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