JPMorgan Chase (JPM) has continued the earnings roll for U.S. banks. Friday morning, JPMorgan announced earnings of $3.28 billion -- thanks mainly to the company's investment banking and its trading business. Both of these segments benefited from the market's recent rally, helping the company make up for a continued weakness in the world of lending.

So, why was the stock lower in morning trading action? Total revenue checked in at $25.23 billion, which was an increase of 32%, but expectations were set at $26.81 billion. This revenue miss, along with the fact that JPMorgan did not hike its nickel-per-share quarterly dividend, served to push the stock lower.

Continue reading Can JPMorgan's Earnings Help It Fight Through Technical Resistance?

Can JPMorgan's Earnings Help It Fight Through Technical Resistance? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 15 Jan 2010 12:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Is it a rejuvenated Dow or 'dead cat bounce' Dow? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 29 Aug 2008 13:03:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

At its last earnings report in early August, the company warned that matching its earlier estimate for fiscal 2007 per-share earnings of 89 cents would be "very challenging." A quarterly showing of 21 cents would put full-year results at 87 cents, a 19% increase from the previous year.

Continue reading Earnings preview: Starbucks (SBUX)

Earnings preview: Starbucks (SBUX) originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 15 Nov 2007 10:49:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

There has been considerable debate about the role of momentum in sports. In a landmark study, Thomas Gilovich and several colleagues provided evidence that the "hot hand" in basketball was nothing more than a myth. Since then, there has been considerable research suggesting that many of the old saws about sports are untrue, and a movement toward more enlightened analysis has emerged, best exemplified in Michael Lewis' book Moneyball.

In this weekend's Wall Street Journal, Allen St. John wonders about the idea of "momentum" heading into baseball's post-season.

He writes that "while much is often made about late-season momentum as a harbinger of playoff success, in reality the relationship between the two is small... The playoffs are truly a second season. Only once since the advent of the wild card has the team with the best regular-season mark (the 1998 Yankees) won the World Series."

So if your favorite team has limped into the post-season, don't worry about it! Occasionally, there are legitimate reasons to fret over lost momentum. If a team has experienced a disastrous September because of injuries to its top starters, that will be a problem heading into the post-season -- not because of momentum, but because the pitchers are likely to remain unavailable!

I would argue that investors should look at the stock market the same way. Rather than buying into the idea of "momentum" in the stock market (I've seen no evidence that such a phenomenon really exists), think about factors that actually effect the business. Leave the cliches about "fighting the tape" and "moving averages" to the old wives.

Baseball playoffs: Does momentum exist? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sun, 30 Sep 2007 13:10:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

One of the BloggingStocks editors recently instant messaged me and said, "You know, I think technical analysis is bull." I've heard this opinion very frequently, and I've even held this opinion in the past. But from watching stocks for several years I've seen certain price moves that seem to occur again and again. Sure enough, these movements are some of the most fundamental elements of technical analysis; for example, support, resistance, uptrend, etc. I've seen many people who don't know any technical analysis but reference a stock's breakout on its "graph" -- just from watching stocks trade, they have realized this is often a sign of future profits to come.

As I began studying technical analysis more frequently, I learned more about the skill -- moving averages, indicators, oscillators, and so on. Many of these tools, in my opinion, do in fact have predictive value in the stock market. More importantly, these tools allow traders to more effectively and systematically (therefore, less emotionally) manage their money.

All this being said, I think the editor was right in one regard -- I have a lot of trouble believing in patterns (e.g., "Head and Shoulders") because I think that many of these are way too objective when it comes to trading. I also find that they are harder to explain than many other tenets of technical analysis, such as support and resistance.

I've been on all sides of the technical analysis argument -- extraordinarily against, emotionally for, and everything in between. As it stands now, I feel like it's just another tool in the toolbox for a trader and there's no reason not to consider it.

Continue reading 'You know, I think technical analysis is bull'

'You know, I think technical analysis is bull' originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sun, 05 Aug 2007 11:10:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.