Confident about Vista release dates? That's what Microsoft "Windows guru" Jim Allchin told Reuters in an interview today. He's the co-president of the company's Platforms & Services Division, and the one responsible for Vista, the upcoming operating system update. The market has been highly skeptical of Microsoft's ability to release the software on time; ever since Gartner released a report indicating Vista would hit the shelves months behind schedule.

Evidently, the market remains skeptical. MSFT was way up in the morning to a respectable $23.38, but plunged at the end of the day in a market-wide sell-off, ending down nine cents at $22.79. Evidently, Allchin's confidence didn't have much sway in the face of uncertainty over commodity prices and, perhaps, the continuing incredulity of MSFT investors.

Investors may finally have heard the credulity of people like me, Tim Beyers of Motley Fool, and any number of Microsoft employees. The stock traded up 27 cents, or 1.17%, to $23.44 on about-average volume. Of course, the stock still sits at its lowest price in the last four years, despite the fact that the company is both (a) profitable and (b) still dominating the world in its usual way.

Oddly, the price increase came on a day in which the Microsoft news was dominated by a rather negative spin; everyone is wondering why the company changed the name of MSN adCenter to Microsoft adCenter. Says Jennifer Slegg of Search Engine Watch, "I am not sure that rebranding from MSN to Microsoft is the best decision for adCenter, but it is certainly a decision that will get people talking." Evidently, talk is enough for a 1% runup. As Martha says, that's a good thing.

I'd like to know what all those sellers are thinking. Really! I mean, look at this chart. There we have it, down down and more down. MSFT is now at its 52-week low -- in fact, the stock hasn't been this low since October 4, 2002. I know! Today, the stock closed at $23.17, down 3.5%. It's now trading 15% below its high last week. Ouch. Guess everyone does believe Gartner's report about Vista delays.

Those who are selling right now? In my opinion, it's irrational depression. Why sell at the low? Panic, I suppose, but it seems highly, um, foolish. Tim Beyers, he who is Motley Foolish but not, you know, foolish, agrees. He argues that, even if you buy the idea that Microsoft might be taking second fiddle to Google (the Evil-Empire-come-lately), it's still a good company to own. After all, they are rife with cash-ola and they absolutely, totally dominate the average laptop. Come on now, look around you at the coffee shop. How many laptops don't have Windows-based software?

Unless you're tapping away at my favorite worker-owned coffee collective (where everyone either has an iBook or a built-from-scratch Linux geek-machine), the answer is: few. If I owned Mr. Softee right now, I'd be holding. And if I owned a pile full of cash right now, I'd be buying. There may be more down. But I'd bet at least some of my children's future on the long-term up.