Analyst Upgrades

• Molycorp (MCP) to overweight from neutral at JPMorgan.
• Humana (HUM), HealthSpring (HS) and UnitedHealth (UNH) to buy from neutral at UBS.
• Williams Cos. (WMB) to conviction buy from neutral and UBS (UBS) to buy from neutral at Goldman.
• China Kanghui (KH) to overweight from neutral at Piper Jaffray.
• Arthur J. Gallagher (AJG) to buy from hold at Citigroup.
• Armstrong World (AWI) to buy from hold at BB&T.
• Time Warner (TWX) to buy from hold at Benchmark Co.
• Calpine (CPN) to overweight from equal weight at Barclays.
• 3M Company (MMM) to neutral from underperform and Kirby (KEX) to buy from underperform at BofA/Merrill.

Analyst Upgrades

• Exxon Mobil (XOM) and BB&T (BBT) to outperform from perform at Oppenheimer.
• D.R. Horton (DHI) upgraded to outperform from market perform at Wells Fargo.
• Meritage Homes (MTH), Old Dominion Freight (ODFL) and Heartland Payment (HPY) to outperform from market perform at Wells Fargo.
• Toll Brothers (TOL) to overweight from equal weight at Barclays.
• Hershey (HSY) to buy from neutral at Janney Capital.
• UnitedHealth (UNH), Cigna (CI) and Allscripts (MDRX) to buy from hold at Deutsche Bank.
• Nationwide Health (NHP) to outperform from market perform at JMP Securities.
• Reynolds American (RAI) to buy from neutral at UBS.
• Adtran (ADTN), PG&E (PCG) and Wisconsin Energy (WEC) to overweight from equal weight at Morgan Stanley.

Today was one of those perfect storms where nothing went right for the bulls. China's oil demand was brought down unofficially, existing home sales was the worst in years, Richmond Fed index data did not have any oomph, and Europe is acting like the problems of May and June are starting back up. The DJIA even momentarily went back under 10,000. Yet the market actually held up considering the run of bad news.

Here were today's unofficial closing levels:

Dow Jones 10,040.45 -133.96 (-1.32%)
S&P 500 1,051.88 -15.48 (-1.45%)
Nasdaq 2,123.76 -35.87 (-1.66%)

Top Analyst Calls

Everybody has been wondering what was going to happen to homebuilders once the Federal government's tax credit expired at the end of April. Well, we're starting to find out, and the picture doesn't look good.

Goldman Sachs has downgraded the entire Homebuilders industry from Attractive to Neutral, dropped MDC Holdings Inc. (MDC) from its Conviction Buy List and dropped its price targets on 10 stocks in the industry.

And really, who can blame them?

We've seen new home sales plunge from 504K in April -- right before the tax credit expired -- to 300K in May. We've also watched housing starts and applications for new building permits dry up. Plus, it is getting harder and harder for individuals to qualify for a loan.

Analyst Upgrades

• Wells Fargo upgraded MasterCard (MA) to outperform from market perform on valuation as it views the sell-off in shares following the company's Q4 results as unwarranted.
• Janney Montgomery upgraded Best Buy (BBY) to buy from neutral on valuation as it believes sentiment has gotten overly negative on the stock. The firm raised its target on shares to $44 from $42.
• Citigroup upgraded Gap (GPS) to buy from hold on valuation following the recent pullback in shares and the company's sales results. The firm raised its price target for the stock to $24 from $23.
• Starwood Hotels (HOT) was upgraded to neutral from underperform at Baird.
• Murphy Oil (MUR) was upgraded to hold from sell at Collins Stewart.
• Motorola (MOT) was upgraded to overweight from equal weight at Barclays.

Lehman Brothers reiterated its "underweight" rating on Circuit City (NYSE:CC) ahead of the company's annual meeting, according to the AP.

Credit Suisse started Hovnanian (NYSE:HOV) and Meritage Homes (NYSE:MTH) as "underperform," according to Briefing.com.

Thomas Weisel downgraded Yahoo! (NASDAQ:YHOO) to "underweight" from "market weight," according to Briefing.com. The news service also reports that UBS upped its price target on Potash (NYSE:POT) from $250 to $285.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Lukoil, ENI SpA and Meritage were today's noteworthy upgrades:

• Citigroup upgraded shares of Lukoil (OTC: LUKOY) to Buy from Hold on valuation, as they believe the company's oil production, refineries and gas stations outside of Russia are not priced into shares.
  
• ABN Amro raised ENI SpA (NYSE: E) to Hold from Sell after a meeting with management.
  
• Meritage (NYSE: MTH) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS on strong results.

OTHER UPGRADES:

• Morgan Stanley upgraded Corporate Executive (NASDAQ: EXBD) to Equal Weight from Underweight.
  
• Trico Marine Services (NASDAQ: TRMA) was upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Lehman.
  
• Holly Corp. (NYSE: HOC) was raised to Outperform from Market Perform at BMO Capital.

Moody's is giving the rating of several home builders another haircut. The current downgrades include Hovnanian (NYSE: HOV), M/I Homes (NYSE: MHO), and Meritage Homes (NYSE: MTH).

Aside from what the ratings change will do to the shares of the companies, this raises, once again, the question of whether a large home builder could go into Chapter 11. Increasingly, the answer to that question looks like it may be "yes."

According to CNN Money, "Homebuilders keep lowering prices to meet flagging demand, crimping profit margins at a time when overall sales continue to deteriorate." At some point soon, many of these companies will need to raise money. It is not clear that they will be able to in the current credit market.

Shares in Meritage certainly trade as if investors believe that the company may have to restructure and that investors may get the short end of the stick. At the current share price of $8.41, the stock is down from a 52-week high of over $47.

Investors may be better off getting out of these stocks with losses. Otherwise they may ride the train to "zero."

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Genesit Energy LP (GEL), EnerNoc (ENOC) and Comcast (CMCSA) were today's noteworthy initiations:

• Genesis Energy (AMEX: GEL) was initiated with a Buy rating and $40 target at Stanford, as the firm believes the company's affiliation with Denbury Resources and pending acquisition of petroleum products, terminals, and transportation businesses from the Davison family will drive rapid growth.

• EnerNoc Inc (NASDAQ: ENOC) was initiated with a Hold rating and $42 target at Jefferies, due to valuation. EnerNoc was also initiated at Morgan Stanley with an Equal Weight rating and $40 target.

• Stifel expects Comcast (OTC: CMCSA) to benefit from higher penetration levels of DVR and HDTV set-top boxes over the next several years and initiated shares with a Buy rating and $34 target.

OTHER INITIATIONS:

• Select asset managers were initiated at Credit Suisse:

• AllianceBernstein (NYSE: AB), Affiliated Managers (NYSE: AMG), Fortress Investment (NYSE: FIG), Invesco (NYSE: IVZ), Franklin Resources (NYSE: BEN) and T Rowe Price (NASDAQ: TROW) were initiated with Outperform ratings.

• Blackrock (NYSE: BLK), Calamos Asset Mgmt (NADAQ: CLMS), Eaton Vance Corp (NYSE: EV), Federated Investors (NYSE: FII), Janus Capital (NYSE: JNS), Legg Mason Inc (NYSE: LM) and Waddell & Reed (NYSE: WDR) were initiated with Neutral ratings.

• Deutsche Bank initiated Ryland Group (NYSE: RYL) with a Buy rating and $52 target, as well as Pulte Homes (NYSE: PHM) and Meritage Homes Corp (NYSE: MTH) with Hold ratings and a $23 target and $29 target, respectively.

Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).