TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says it's not a strong-dollar sell -- the story here is still too good.
Why did natural gas go down last week? What was that? Inventories were down. The commodity price was up. The fuel itself is green. It is better than ethanol and it is being used to fuel an increasing numbers of cars and trucks.
The whole move down had to have been triggered by something, right? Yeah, how about the fact that the stocks were up a lot and were due for some profit-taking.
Recall that the real "reason" they went down is that the dollar "got strong," and that was supposed to trigger commodity deflation; natural gas is a commodity and is therefore going to go down. (Barron's made this very case this weekend, oblivious to the facts, but loving the theory.)
This kind of thinking is just so stupid that it shows you can get chance after chance after chance to own the fuel that can take care of the nation if we just let it. Of course, the stocks began to come back later in the week as threats of supply cut-offs of crude -- they came true this weekend -- made natural gas declines virtually impossible, despite the "sense" that it peaked. So the money has came back and I believe will continue to come back.
Nabors Industries Ltd. (NYSE: NBR), an owner & operator of approximately 650 land drilling rigs, approximately 805 land workover/well-servicing rigs and 41 offshore platform rigs worldwide, closed at $27.92. WTI Crude oil up 0.64% to $91.75. NBR has a market cap of $7.9 billion. NBR option volume was heavy on November 13, with 39,294 call contracts trading compared to put volume of 5,408 contracts. NBR November 27.5 straddle is priced at $1.15. NBR December option implied volatility of 45 is above its 26-week average of 33 according to Track Data, suggesting larger fluctuations.
Daily options Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Suntech Power, First Solar, Banco Santander, Internap and NetGear were today's noteworthy initiations:
Merriman initiated shares of Suntech Power (NYSE: STP) with a Buy rating and believes the company is benefiting from strong worldwide demand for solar PV technology. The firm suggests a potential 12-month stock price range of $56-$64.
Merriman also started shares of First Solar (NASDAQ: FSLR) with a Sell rating, as they believe the company's market is limited to ground-based systems because of its cadmium-based technology, which they feel could lead to environment concerns over time.
Deutsche Bank resumed coverage of Banco Santander (NYSE: STD) with a Buy rating. The firm is positive on the bank's agreement with ABN Amro (NYSE: ABN) and feels the company has a lack of exposure to risky assets.
Jefferies believes Internap (NASDAQ: INAP) is well-positioned with its suite of services to address a rapidly growing market, starting shares off with a Buy rating and $20 target.
Nollenberger believes NetGear (NASDAQ: NTGR) provides a pure-play opportunity to capitalize on the global penetration of broadband connectivity. The firm resumed coverage with a Buy rating and $36 target.
OTHER INITIATIONS:
ThinkEquity initiated Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) with a Buy rating and $800 target and Yahoo! (NASDAQ: YHOO) with an Accumulate rating.
Worry about something else other than the chance that the Federal Reserve won't cut its short-term interest rate target. Worry about how little oil is out there to find, how we are running out of cheap natural gas and how China is the linchpin in oil usage, not us.
Those are some of the trepidations that I feel after reading the incredibly good speech by Schlumberger (NYSE: SLB) chief Andrew Gould earlier this month, available on the company's fantastic Web site.
Gould's dealing with the realities of why the Oil Service HOLDRs (AMEX: OIH) won't quit. Easy oil is indeed running out, despite what the bulls tell us. The new additions to old fields give out earlier. The kind of oil and natural gas that is still left to find in North America is low-quality and not deeply reserved. The places where oil can be found are all deepwater or remote.
Citigroup upgraded US Steel Corporation (NYSE: X) to Buy from Hold and raised their target to $118 to reflect operating catalysts and their expectations for domestic steel markets to improve in Q4 and 2008.
Cooper Companies Inc (NYSE: COO) was also upgraded to Buy from Hold at Citigroup despite the lowered guidance as they believe the company's products are improving and earnings upside is possible.
WestLB upgraded Continental AG (OTC: CTTAY) to Buy from Hold after the tire marker announced plans to reorganize its company structure into six divisions following the purchase of Siemens AG's (NYSE: SI) VDO automotive unit.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Today's more noteworthy upgrades include Verizon Communications Inc (VZ), Priceline.com Inc (PCLN) Intel Corp (INTC), NYSE Euronext (NYX) and Top Tankers Inc (TOPT):
Citigroup upgraded Verizon Commuications (NYSE: VZ) to Buy from Sell and raised their target to $48 from $33 as the firm believes earnings-per-share growth will override cap ex concern.
Citigroup also upgraded shares of Priceline.com (NASDAQ: PCLN) to Buy from Hold on valuation as the firm believes the company's growth prospects are underestimated in the stock following the recent sell-off.
Intel Corp (NASDAQ: INTC) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Merrill Lynch citing the company's robust product road map and its ability to compete against Advanced Micro Devices (AMD).
JP Morgan upgraded NYXE Euronext (NYSE: NYX) to Neutral from Underweight and believes the risks that attributed NYX's downgrade in February have played out and sees limited downside at these levels.
Cantor upgraded Top Tankers (NASDAQ: TOPT) to Hold from Sell following better-than-expected Q1 results...
Posted Apr 23rd 2007 1:37PM by Eric Buscemi Filed under: Oil
While notoriously cyclical, the supply and demand dynamics look so good for the drilling and rig businesses, even private equity firms might start looking at this sector.
As demand for high-quality offshore rigs have these stocks ascending to record highs, land-based drillers, and specifically Nabors Industries (NYSE: NBR), have sold off. Nabors stock has dropped from a high of $40 per share and is now selling for $31 per share.
The argument from the investment community is that Nabors' rigs are old and are targeted at areas where natural gas reserves are in steep decline -- meaning the day-rates for their rigs are in jeopardy of going down.
Nabors management is not very pleased with its recent stock price and has suggested at recent investor conferences that if it remains at such depressed levels it will look at options to get the price up. Look at Nabors stock to make some good money. A 30% pop or $40 stock price looks likely.
Note: The Daily Option Update is provided by Options Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.
Volatility Index S&P 500 Options-VIX down .22 to 10.09.
Cisco Systems Inc. (NASDAQ:CSCO) -- option volume heavy as February implied volatility bid up on hedges into EPS. Cisco, the largest vendor of data networking equipment and the leading global supplier of internet-working solutions is expected to report EPS on 2/6. Goldman Sachs says "we believe there is a high likelihood of Cisco beating our and the Street's estimates of $8.28 billion/$0.31. We expect management to reaffirm positive longer-term trends in emerging markets, new technologies, and the impact of video networks as key drivers of sustained double-digit top-line growth." Cisco call option volume of 73,135 contracts compares to put volume of 46,830 contracts. Cisco February option implied volatility of 42 is above its 26-week average of 28 according to Track Data, suggesting larger near term price risks.
Nabors Industries Ltd. (NYSE:NBR) -- option implied volatility and volume increases as NBR rallies. Nabors is an owner and operator of almost 600 land drilling, approximately 791 land workover/well-servicing rigs and 43 offshore platform rigs worldwide. Nabors will report EPS on 2/7. Nabors is recently up .80 to $31.02 on unconfirmed LBO chatter. Nabors call option volume of 26,680 contracts compares to put volume of 2,895 contracts. Nabors March option implied volatility is at 38. Nabors February option implied volatility of 53 is above a level of 43 from twenty-minutes ago and above its 26-week average of 33 according to Track Data, suggesting increasing price fluctuations.
Option volume leaders today were: Cisco (CSCO), Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG), Equity Office Properties (NYSE:EOP), NYSE Group Inc. (NYSE: NYX) and Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN).