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Chasing Value: Journey to 201%: APC, ISRG, WFC and more

Yesterday my 2009 portfolio closed up 201% for the year. It has been an interesting journey, and while it is rather self congratulatory to discuss it, there are lessons to be learned.

Before I review some of the reasons I was able to do this I want to make it clear that I do not think this can be easily repeated; I look at the portfolio every day thinking this is too good to be true, and we all know what that usually means.

Continue reading Chasing Value: Journey to 201%: APC, ISRG, WFC and more

Serious Money: UPS -- No sure things, but ...

Let's face it, all those things you heard about efficient markets over the years were hogwash. In the short term, markets are not efficient and as we have learned on too many occasions, not even rational. If everything was always priced just right you would not have winners and losers and everyone would live happily ever after. For some things the short term might be as long as five to ten years.

Three years ago I lost out on the purchase of a property close to my office when someone decided it was worth 40% more than I did. At the time I told the broker the buyer was nuts and would lose money, if not more. I remember the broker telling me that the property was worth what someone is willing to pay. That is not true, but far be it from me too convince a broker that just made a terrific deal for his client that people often pay more than something is worth. To make a long story short, the property is now in default and I am trying to buy the note from the bank that made a bad loan accepting a silly valuation.

Continue reading Serious Money: UPS -- No sure things, but ...

Chasing Value: Favorite trades -- Williams Companies

In April, I did a series of posts on Williams Companies (NYSE: WMB) starting with Chasing Value: Williams has the pipes and it's not blowing smoke.

I have also been writing about my investments in naked puts.

Now, I want to share one of the things I have done this year that has helped me obtain over a 100% return for 2009 at one point last month, which has since fallen back to 82%. This is not something I could have predicted, but I am not complaining.

Continue reading Chasing Value: Favorite trades -- Williams Companies

Chasing Value: Favorite trades -- BHP Billiton

This is a continuation of a theme I have been writing about this year involving stock options referred to as naked puts.

This allows investors to take a position in a stock, most often below its current price, but depending on market sentiment. That sentiment remains relatively negative so the spreads are attractive.

I have been following BHP Billiton Ltd ADR (NYSE: BHP) the largest mining company in the world, with headquarters in Australia, for a while but I do not own the stock today. I view all mining companies as an opportunity because I think the diversified raw materials they control are the best hedge against inflation. I do not think inflation is imminent, but with the extreme increases in money supply and debt being created I do not think it will be avoidable a few years out.

Continue reading Chasing Value: Favorite trades -- BHP Billiton

Chasing Value: Favorite trades -- UPS

For those of you who are able to trade options, I have been writing more and more about naked puts, "selling to open" stock options that I have been doing all year with great returns due to an overabundance of fear.

Yesterday I reviewed one example in Chasing Value: GE -- maybe not eating out of trash cans after all, and today I review some of my favorite ways to make money and improve my portfolio.

Let me start with United Parcel Service Inc. (NYSE: UPS), a company with a great balance sheet, strong management, and trading 29% off its 52-week high, about where I sold it last year. I bought it earlier this year at the bargain basement price of $44, and now wished I had bought more.

Continue reading Chasing Value: Favorite trades -- UPS

Chasing Value: GE -- maybe not eating out of trash cans after all

This week I closed out an option on General Electric (NYSE: GE) I had discussed four months ago regarding the absolute fear in the market place that I felt had driven investors off a cliff (see Chasing Value: Will we be eating out of trash cans?).

At the time I had noticed that GE naked puts, a "sell to open" put option, would pay me, on the spot, 52 cents a share if I would commit to buying the shares if they dropped below $2.50 by January 2011. This meant that my break-even position was $1.98 a share when GE was selling for five times that.

Continue reading Chasing Value: GE -- maybe not eating out of trash cans after all

Serious Money: Still running naked on Wall Street

Over the past few weeks the market has been playing a favorable tune but that does not mean that all bad news and negativity have been wrung out of it. There is plenty of fear and suspicion creating volatility.

In many cases this past quarter I have been doing naked puts, in stocks I would be happy to own anyway. I first mentioned this opportunity about seven week ago in Investor fear puts me 'naked' on Wall Street. The actual option position is a "sell to open" put where you get paid today, to pledge to buy something at a later date. These options are available at different strike prices and monthly intervals depending on the company stock.

Continue reading Serious Money: Still running naked on Wall Street

Chasing Value: Will we be eating out of trash cans?

There are people in the investing world right now that are so down on the market that they are hedging against an absolute market collapse.

As an example of this view I just sold naked puts in General Electric (NYSE: GE), the only original Dow Jones Industrial Average stock for January 2011 at a strike price of $2.50, and collected $0.52, per share. My break even therefore is $1.98, not counting the interest over what is almost a two-year term. Or looking at it another way, I got paid 20% on my money.


Continue reading Chasing Value: Will we be eating out of trash cans?

Chasing Value: Has BNI become 'Berkshire' Northern Santa Fe

In reading recent stories that Warren Buffett continues to increase his stake in Burlington Northern Santa Fe (NYSE: BNI) -- now standing at 22.4% -- I started to wonder if some day the name might be changed to "Berkshire" Northern Santa Fe RR?

'My pal Warren' is no doubt looking long term, and for most of the past two years has been up on Berkshire Hathaway's (NYSE: BRK.A) BNI investment. However that is not the case today as his most recent purchase at $75.00 per share (not bought in the open market) is under water; the shares closed at $66.04, down 12%. He is losing even more on his average purchase price.

Continue reading Chasing Value: Has BNI become 'Berkshire' Northern Santa Fe

Investor fear puts me 'naked' on Wall Street

Right or wrong, I have been buying stocks on dips for the last five months, and the past two weeks I started adding naked puts to the mix on down days.

In short (no pun intended), I am opening an option to sell a stock I do not own. These "naked puts" pay me cash on the first day to accept an obligation to buy a stock in the future at a predetermined price. If the stock is one cent or greater below the strike price, it gets "put to me" and I have to cover the position by buying the shares pledged.

Continue reading Investor fear puts me 'naked' on Wall Street

What are naked puts and why take the risk?

naked city, naked putsThe subject of "naked puts" has been mentioned in several of my posts (most recently Keep your eye on Black & Decker and Black & Decker follow-up -- a few more thoughts), and I have received some inquiries about this trading option. Again I emphasize that this is a very risky proposition. I have only made these trades five times in my decades of investing all in the last few years after gaining a lot of knowledge and experience, with mixed results. Here's a definition from the Investopedia:

  • Meaning: A put option whose writer does not have a short position in the stock on which he or she has written the put. Sometimes referred to as an "uncovered put."
  • Caution: Naked puts are very risky since the writer can lose big if the underlying asset moves opposite to the desired direction. But, profits are huge if the underlying asset moves in the right direction.
  • Still more discussion: TheStreet.com: Naked Puts Are a Dangerous Game

Why?: I have only one open option 'naked put' at this time and chose a very conservative position. About eight weeks ago I was looking at the Southern Company (SO) which I own in my Roth IRA for inclusion in our investment company portfolio. It was trading around $32. I was interested in getting a bargain and would have liked to buy it at $30. It has not traded at this price for quite some time and may not.

Continue reading What are naked puts and why take the risk?

Black & Decker follow-up -- a few more thoughts

Since posting Keep your eye on Black & Decker last week I have had some discussion among other investors and business associates on-line and off about Black & Decker (BDK). There seems to be a general consensus that it is a solid company with strong fundamentals that has cyclical tendencies. This will be weighing on future earnings and no doubt is reflected in the decline of the stock price and the recent earnings report.

I do not own the stock but have been watching it for several months. It came to my attention through reading various business publications and I thought there was some merit to the positive commentary so I put it on my watch-list $25 dollars ago.

On rare occasion I trade options, (puts or calls), and usually have at least one option outstanding. In my original post I had concluded that BDK may be very close to fair value from all the data I had examined. I was thinking out loud that I may want it $10 cheaper seeking a deep value perhaps around $60 per share so I reviewed CBOE cboe.com/delayedquote/QuoteTable.aspx to get a look at options opportunities.

Since I might be willing to buy shares at $60, could I get paid to do so by selling naked puts (TRADING NAKED PUTS CAN BE VERY HIGH RISK!!) at that strike price. Well two things I learned. First, even with the large 25% decline in stock price of the past few months there was not much money in these options. The second is that there is very little "open interest" at all in doing this trade. There was opportunity at $65, $70 and up, but almost none at $55 & $60. To me this indicates that consensus has developed in the options picture supporting my thesis that we may be at fair value for BDK in the $65 to $70 range in the current market... and that I should keep tracking it for that possible deep value.

BTW, Black & Decker is not a must own stock, nothing is. So I can wait forever, buy something of better value, or do nothing. Patience absolutely pays off.

"You do things when the opportunities come along. I've had periods in my life when I've had a bundle of ideas come along, and I've had long dry spells. If I get an idea next week, I'll do something. If not, I won't do a damn thing." -Warren Buffett

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the vice president for Design and Research of an Architecture & Planning firm.

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Last updated: November 25, 2009: 06:02 PM

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