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Pepsi gets Naked

naked juicePepsiCo, Inc. (NYSE:PEP) and The Coca-Cola Company (NYSE:KO), always one-upping one another, right? Yes... but this one-upsmanship was a lot longer in coming. Back in 2001, Coke bought Odwalla Juice, immediately positioning it in the highest-price (and, yes, most authentically healthy) segment of the non-alcoholic beverage market.

This month, Pepsi has finally countered that by purchasing Naked Juice Co, a part of the company's overall shift towards healthier options and, certainly, a move to raise the average price of their products -- or, as John Faucher from JP Morgan Securities puts it, "adding high growth, non-carb brands." While terms of the deal weren't announced, analysts say it was likely around $450 million.

The way I see it, this acquisition helps move Pepsi into the coffee shop, alongside its recent acquisition of Izze sodas. While Pepsi's cola and other sugary, fizzy drinks aren't exactly a has-been, Americans are spending more of their casual dining dollar in coffee shops, and less in fast food restaurants (not to mention the considerable health benefits of juice over soda). Pepsi is wise to position its beverages so that coffee shop owners won't mind putting them alongside their Guatemalan coffees -- and Naked Juice and Izze sodas are naturals there.

Black & Decker follow-up -- a few more thoughts

Since posting Keep your eye on Black & Decker last week I have had some discussion among other investors and business associates on-line and off about Black & Decker (BDK). There seems to be a general consensus that it is a solid company with strong fundamentals that has cyclical tendencies. This will be weighing on future earnings and no doubt is reflected in the decline of the stock price and the recent earnings report.

I do not own the stock but have been watching it for several months. It came to my attention through reading various business publications and I thought there was some merit to the positive commentary so I put it on my watch-list $25 dollars ago.

On rare occasion I trade options, (puts or calls), and usually have at least one option outstanding. In my original post I had concluded that BDK may be very close to fair value from all the data I had examined. I was thinking out loud that I may want it $10 cheaper seeking a deep value perhaps around $60 per share so I reviewed CBOE cboe.com/delayedquote/QuoteTable.aspx to get a look at options opportunities.

Since I might be willing to buy shares at $60, could I get paid to do so by selling naked puts (TRADING NAKED PUTS CAN BE VERY HIGH RISK!!) at that strike price. Well two things I learned. First, even with the large 25% decline in stock price of the past few months there was not much money in these options. The second is that there is very little "open interest" at all in doing this trade. There was opportunity at $65, $70 and up, but almost none at $55 & $60. To me this indicates that consensus has developed in the options picture supporting my thesis that we may be at fair value for BDK in the $65 to $70 range in the current market... and that I should keep tracking it for that possible deep value.

BTW, Black & Decker is not a must own stock, nothing is. So I can wait forever, buy something of better value, or do nothing. Patience absolutely pays off.

"You do things when the opportunities come along. I've had periods in my life when I've had a bundle of ideas come along, and I've had long dry spells. If I get an idea next week, I'll do something. If not, I won't do a damn thing." -Warren Buffett

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the vice president for Design and Research of an Architecture & Planning firm.

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Last updated: November 11, 2009: 04:07 PM

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