Two leading advisors with noted expertise in the biotech sector have both been long-term fans of Celgene (NASDAQ: CELG), both holding the stock in their respective model portfolios.
Nate Pile explains, "Now that the Pharmion merger is behind us, it appears that investors are once again recognizing Celgene for what it is – namely, one of the premier stories in the biopharmaceutical space.
"As I have said a number of times before, if I could only own one biotech stock for the next ten years, Celgene would be it... and I encourage you to make it a 'first choice' for your portfolio as well!
"The stock is likely to exhibit its usual volatility around the company's upcoming earnings report, but I encourage you to take advantage of any sell-off that may occur to aggressively add to your position in this market leader. CELG is now considered a strong buy under $60 and a buy under $68."
John McCamant states, "Celgene had some good news of late on the thalidomide front. The company has received approval of the application to expand the drug's label to treat newly diagnosed multiple myeloma (MM) patients in Australia.
"The current environment is one of the most challenging I have seen in the twenty years I have been following the market," says Nate Pile, who has added some ETF hedges to his Nate's Notes portfolio.
"I am also introducing two ETFs this month that can be thought of as 'indirect hedges.' Rather than being a 'short' fund, we are choosing funds that track commodity prices, which in turn, will provide a hedge against any market declines that may result from investor concern about rising inflation.
"In addition, these two new ETFs is may appreciate in value even if the market does rally from here. I actually think there is a very good chance we will make money on these 'commodity ETFs' regardless of what the stock market does next. Anyhow, without further ado, I present to you the following two ETFs:
"The PowerShares Deutsche Bank Commodity Index Tracking Fund (ASE: DBC) is designed to reflect the performance of the Deutsche Bank Liquid Commodity Index, an index that tracks six important commodities (current index weightings approximated in parentheses): light crude (33%), heating oil (19%), wheat (14%), corn (12%), aluminum (12%), and gold (10%).
For those who wish to hedge a portfolio against downside risk, Nate Pile suggests a pair of ETFs that benefit from a market decline. Here is the latest from his Nate's Notes.
"Although I would argue that much of the potential bad news has already been factored into stock prices, one of the mantras I have come to respect over the years is 'don't find the trend'... and the trend is currently down.
"Thus, I believe it would be foolish to not take at least a few cautionary steps with regards to protecting our portfolios until it becomes more clear just how bad things are going to get.
"As a result, I am recommending two 'short fund' ETFs as short-term investments -- ProShares UltraShort Dow 30 (AMEX: DXD) and the ProShares UltraShort QQQ (AMEX: QID). Both are designed to provide results, before fees and expenses, which correspond to the inverse of the performance of their respective indexes.
For 25 years, Steven Halpern, editor of TheStockAdvisors.com, has surveyed the leading financial newsletter advisors asking for their favorite stocks for the coming year. This article is one of 100+ ideas in the Best Stocks for 2008 report.
"Our more speculative favorite -- a 'swing for the fences' pick for 2008 -- is a tiny company called Wizzard Software (NASDAQ: WIZD)," says Nate Pile, editor of Nate's Notes.
"The company has been around for a number of years doing work in various speech-to-text and text-to-speech industries, though it has also spent much of the last two years building a presence in the podcasting arena.
"In fact, with the acquisition of Liberated Syndication (or Libsyn, as the cool kids call it) earlier this year, the company managed to take over the top spot as the largest podcasting network in the world.
"And, while it remains to be seen exactly when and how Wizzard might be able to monetize that 'top dog' position, what is already known is that 'the big boys' of the digital marketplace (Google, Yahoo!, Microsoft, etc.) have not been too stingy in the past when they have made offers to buy their way into various niches of the 'digital lifestyle' space.
For 25 years, Steven Halpern, editor of TheStockAdvisors.com, has surveyed the leading financial newsletter advisors asking for their favorite stocks for the coming year. This article is one of 100+ ideas in the Best Stocks for 2008 report.
"My top conservative stock idea for 2008 is Apple Inc (NASDAQ: AAPL)," says Nate Pile, editor of Nate's Notes. "Though the stock is likely to remain exceptionally volatile in the months ahead, we believe that shares of Apple will be trading significantly higher than they are today by the end of 2008.
"And, while most analysts and investors are continuing to focus on sales of iPods and iPhones as the primary catalysts for growth, we remain convinced that it will actually be the company's computer division that provides the biggest upside surprises for investors over the next several quarters.
"After turning Apple's fortunes around via the introduction of the iPod several years ago (and wooing a whole new generation of young computer users over to the Mac platform via the "coolness factor" associated with the iPod in the process), it appears that Steve Jobs is on the verge of duplicating the feat again.
"Only this time, he is doing it with an even more important group of potential customers -- namely, corporate executives who, by all accounts, are loving their new iPhones just as much as college kids (and adults!) love their iPods.
Although he is currently taking a cautious view on the overall market, Nate Pile, the editor of Nate's Notes, believes that eBay (NASDAQ: EBAY) and Walt Disney (NYSE: DIS) warrant accumulation for those with a long-term investment view.
As to the stock market and economy, he notes, "I'm concerned that the Fed really is stuck between a rock and a hard place. Yes, the market has responded favorably since the Fed's decision to cut the discount rate. But I believe we ought to be more concerned than excited by the Fed's action." Why? He notes, "Whenever the Fed does something 'clever or unexpected,' it is rarely because they think everything is going according to plan."
Meanwhile, the advisor says, "We have looked at our recommended stocks to focus on those that have shown strong relative strength despite market turmoil. We believe this is one of the best indicators for evaluating appreciation potential for once overall market conditions have turned more favorable."
Was yesterday's action the beginning of a major sell-off," asks analyst Nate Pile? Or was it simply a "one-day overreaction on the part of investors who have been waiting for months for an excuse" to take some profits?
The editor of Nate's Notes admits, "I do not claim to know what the market is going to do on a given day or week." But, he says, "I do know that the most important thing to do in situations like the one we were confronted with today is remain calm and avoid making any spur of the moment investment decisions."
He explains, "On the pessimistic side of the coin, there was clearly a hint of bearish sentiment in the market today, and a great many stock charts that previously had been classified as 'healthy looking' are now 'not-so-healthy looking.'"
However, he notes, "If they can hold at or above today's lows, history suggests most will rebound over the next couple of weeks and actually end up with chart patterns that are even more bullish than they were three weeks ago. On the other hand, if today's lows are violated tomorrow (or anytime in the next couple of weeks, for that matter), it will be a very bearish sign indeed."
While many advisors and investors focus on the iPod and the iPhone when assessing the outlook for Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL), Nate Pile has a different take.
The editor of Nate's Notes explains, "As often happens following the release of widely anticipated news, Apple has drifted lower over the past few week -- and it would not surprise me at all to see this downtrend continue for another several weeks while analysts and investors alike fret over 'slowing iPod sales' and debate over the merits and the potential of the iPhone."
And while he expects that the iPod and iPhone will remain in the spotlight for the next several quarters, he adds, "These products are not our primary reason for being in the stock. That honor goes to the company's iMac line."
Indeed, based on the expanding markets for the PC/digital world, he believes we will see an "unexpected surge" in iMac sales.