Continue reading When Will NBER Officially Declare End to U.S. Recession?

When Will NBER Officially Declare End to U.S. Recession? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 06 Apr 2010 18:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Dec. 1: Dow 8,149 (down 679 points); trading range, 703 points

Start spreadin' the news -- the U.S. economy entered a recession 12 months ago.

But this headline from the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) combined with other weak economic data and more troubles in financials to drag down the Dow by nearly 700 points.

In fact, 498 of the S&P 500 stocks posted a decline during the session.

Every sector showed weakness, as a disappointing manufacturing survey sank to the worst level since 1982, and weighed on trading.

Financials took another severe beating as Oppenheimer uber-analyst Meredith Whitney opined that the credit card industry may cut credit lines by more than $2 trillion during the next 18 months.

Meanwhile, Fed Chief Ben Bernanke laid out additional policy actions that may be taken to boost the economy.

Greg Tucker is the executive editor of OptionsZone.com.

10 craziest days on Wall Street in 2008: #5 It's official: U.S. economy enters recession ... in 2007 originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sun, 04 Jan 2009 10:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

All year long there has been one big question looming over America: is the country in recession, and if not, can a full blown recession be avoided? Well, according to The National Bureau of Economic Research, the country most certainly is in the midst of a recession, and has been since December of last year.

There has been a lot of debate as early as the start of the year over whether or not the country had already fallen into a recession. While we had not seen the official definition of a recession confirmed, several respected analysts had claimed the recession was under way months ago.

The officual definition of a recession is when economic growth slows for consecutive quarters. Despite this not having occurred earlier this year, billionaire investor Warren Buffet came out publicly as early as March 3 of this year claiming that America had already dipped into recessionary times.

Continue reading America officially in a recession

America officially in a recession originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 01 Dec 2008 14:20:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

New York Yankee Hall of Fame catcher Yogi Berra, noted for his incisive malapropisms, once remarked about his ballclub's prospects, "The future, it ain't what it used to be."

Well, to quote Yogi, the U.S.'s economic future ain't what it used to be, but as my BloggingStocks colleague Peter Cohan observed, it may not be what some economists currently make it out to be, either.

Cohan asked "Is the 'recession' real?" and argued that one could make a case that not enough evidence exists to suggest the U.S. is in recession -- two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth has not been measure yet. Further, some sectors of the economy, including oil, oil services, energy, alternative energy, and farming, among others, are doing well.

Still, housing is in its worst slump in more than 20 years, consumer spending growth is modest at best, consumer confidence is low, and one need not list the litany of concerns regarding mortgage lenders and related asset-back securities and banks.

What's going on here?

Continue reading U.S. may enter 'growth recession' in 2008

U.S. may enter 'growth recession' in 2008 originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 30 Jan 2008 14:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Ted Allrich is the founder of The Online Investor and author of the just released book: Comfort Zone Investing: Build Wealth And Sleep Well At Night. In this weekly column, he'll offer advice to investors who are just getting started.

The R word is picking up steam, much like the Wave at football games. It stands for recession. The old joke goes that a recession is when your neighbors lose their jobs. A depression is when you lose yours. That's not too bad a gauge, but it doesn't help much. Neither do the official definitions.

The most widely accepted definition is: A recession is a decline in the Gross Domestic Product for two or more consecutive quarters. Most economists don't like this one. It doesn't consider enough variables such as the unemployment rate or consumer confidence. The second inconvenience is that it uses quarterly data, thereby making it difficult to track when a recession begins or ends.

Continue reading Comfort Zone Investing: The R word is scary, but not as much as the U word

Comfort Zone Investing: The R word is scary, but not as much as the U word originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sat, 26 Jan 2008 10:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.