There's nothing like a supply cut and geopolitical tension to put a floor under oil's price.

Oil popped above $50 a barrel Tuesday after Kuwait and Qatar indicated they will implement supply cuts announced last month, and Russia shutoff gas shipments to Europe stemming from its natural gas dispute with Ukraine.

Oil rose $1.66 to $50.47 per barrel. Natural gas rose 10 cents to $6.18 per million BTUs. The price of oil has risen about $12 in two weeks.

Economist Richard Felson said Tuesday geopolitical tension has re-entered the oil price equation. "Demand is so weak, prices should not be rising. And had they occurred alone, neither the Russian natural gas dispute nor Middle East tension would be enough to increase prices either," Felson said. "But the geopolitical tension combined with OPEC's production cut has been enough to attract oil buyers back to the market."

Over the past few months we have seen the price of gas fall from about $4.00 per gallon to under $2.00 per gallon in most locations.

The price of natural gas has also fallen 25% over the same period. Good news for homeowners, right? Wrong. Homeowners who heat with natural gas saw an increase of 5% in their heating bills. Customers are angry and rightly so. Complaints are pouring in to utility providers and regulators. Some homeowners have had to turn down their thermostats to save money.

Now, if you have electric heat, it's even worse. One third of the home owners in the Northeast use electricity to heat their homes. They have seen an increase of 5% blamed primarily on the cost of coal.

Heating oil prices have dropped by 13% but this affects only 7% of home owners.

By the time all these complaints are filed and investigated winter will be over. Meanwhile, a large population of homeowners will have been held hostage by the energy companies.

Piedmont Natural Gas Company, Inc. (NYSE: PNY) is one of the few corporations to report earnings this week -- and, judging by its results, that may be a good thing. PNY reported a widened fourth-quarter loss of $13.2 million, or 18 cents per share, while revenue improved by 12% to $311.8 million. Gross margin for the period contracted from 29.1% to 28.1%.

Ahead of the report, analysts were expecting a more modest quarterly loss of about 13 cents per share, according to Thomson Financial. Piedmont's forecast for the next fiscal year also fell short of Wall Street's expectations; the company backed its fiscal 2009 guidance for earnings of $1.55 to $1.65 per share, compared to analysts' consensus estimate for earnings of $1.66 per share.

This oil trade takes the cake.

At the zenith of the speculative bubble in the oil patch -- when crude hit $147 per barrel in July -- you had everyone from T. Boone Pickens to Prince Alaweed touting $200-per-barrel oil by the end of the year.

Crude is now trading around $40 -- down $107 per barrel in less than six months. Unbelievable!

And this latest drop comes after OPEC voted to cut daily production by an eye-popping 4.2 billion barrels per day.

Looks like the world is awash in crude oil.

Needless to say, those euphoric longs in the oil stocks got destroyed. Most energy stocks lost 50% to 70% of their value during the course of the sell-off in crude.

And remember those television commercials with T. Boone and Chesapeake Energy (NYSE: CHK) CEO Aubrey McClendon pushing for the expansion of natural gas?

Well, natural gas prices are down 60% from their mid-year highs.

If you put money into T. Boone's Clean Energy Fuels Corp. (NASDAQ: CLNE) as recently as September, when the stock was trading at $20, you now own Mr. Pickens' vision for $5.

In October Loews Corp. (NYSE: L) acquired $490 million on 21.2 million common shares of Boardwalk Pipeline Partners LP (NYSE: BWP), which plans to use the proceeds to expand its pipelines.

Loews, which owns stakes in insurance company CNA Financial Corp. as well as oil and gas companies and hotels, paid $23.13 per share, Friday's closing price, was $19.49 so your buying at a discount to the general partner.

Boardwalk said the cost to complete three pipeline projects is estimated at $3.9 billion. It has financed the projects to date with a combination of equity and debt issuance, cash from operations and by borrowing from the partnership's $1 billion revolving credit facility.

Lowes is the largest shareholder with a 70% equity interest. Boardwalk Pipeline Partners is in the business of interstate transportation, gathering, and storage of natural gas. The company operates through two subsidiaries -- Texas Gas Transmission and Gulf South Pipeline Company -- with a combined 13,550 miles of pipeline in 11 states.

Natural gas prices are down significantly, but I think most investors and users of natural gas alike think that is temporary and the price which is cyclical is near a low point and destined to go up. In the mean time BWP is off its 52 week high of $32.25, down in line with the overall market. The difference here is that BWP has almost a 10% yield while trading at a price to book value near 1.0. It seems to me that this stock will reward your patience while they expand the network and later when gas prices rise as expected.

Last weeks gas prices: At the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) The January 2009 contract settled at $5.686 per MMBtu.

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture and planning firm. He writes the columns Chasing Value and Serious Money. Disclosure: I do not own shares of BWP or L, but I am considering them.

It was July 1, 2008 when I first posted Serious Money: Five stable stocks for troubled times. The title speaks for itself. This update, after nine weeks and horrible market conditions, is through Friday October 3, 2008.

The index for comparison is the Standard & Poor's 500 Index, which closed on June 30, 2008 at 1,280.00. The S&P closed Friday at 1,099.23 , down 14.12%.

Each of my five picks is beating the market and three of the five are actually up despite crushing news in the financial sector, unemployment and housing. Congress did pass a Wall Street backstop/bailout bill that President Bush has signed, but only after adding another 450 pages and $130 billion to the amount. Although the five stocks have averaged a 0.75% loss, as intended, they easily beat the S&P by 13.37%.

Here are the five stocks that I still think are worth considering. For my original rationale see the linked story above.

1) Johnson and Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) -- when recommended, the stock closed at $64.34 and paid a 2.89% dividend yield. It closed Friday at $66.16 -- up 2.75%. JNJ was featured in Barron's this month as the most respected from the top 100 companies in the world.

2) Teva Pharmaceuticals ADR (NASDAQ: TEVA) -- when recommended, the stock closed at $45.80 and paid a 1% dividend yield. It closed October 3 at $46.08 -- up 0.06% 0.62% Teva (of Isreal) is the largest generic drug company in the world and just got bigger through the acquisition of Barr Pharmaceuticals last month.

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says there's a big disconnect between the trade, orchestrated by the funds, and the real-world demand.

How can anyone actually own oil or natural gas through this relentless assault on price? I know when it was going up, the talk was that all of these new funds were indexing trillions to commodities and it was just going to stay there, and that's why there was a new level of oil demand.

Can those same accounts come in every day and take this relentless pasting no matter what the news? And do they believe the news, that they are losing money today because some storm went to Daytona and not to New Orleans?

Yesterday, I had Jim Hackett, the CEO of Anadarko Pete (NYSE: APC) (Cramer's Take) on "Mad Money at the Half," and he was flabbergasted at the activity in the futures pit and how unrealistic it has become. He's focused on natural gas, where he says the demand at $8 by industry -- the glass makers and chemical companies and steel and aluminum users -- is voracious. But the futures themselves just keep going down, regardless of the demand.

It is reasonable to believe that as the cost of crude rises, demand will fall. It is in the Economics 101 textbooks. It has to to be true.

Not so, says The International Energy Agency. According to The New York Times, the think tank says "the small decline in oil demand in the industrialized countries will be more than offset by an estimated increase in demand of 3.7 percent a year from 2008 to 2013 in developing countries, particularly in Asia, the Middle East and Latin America."

The argument has the benefit of making sense. Asia, especially China, cannot keep up its GDP growth without gas to drive its transportation industry. It has cut the amount it provides to underwrite the price of diesel and gas, but it has not eliminated the practice. Driving a car or truck on the mainland is still cheap.

In the Middle East and Latin America, many of the countries are net exporters of crude. Brazil recently claimed that it found one of the largest oil deposits ever discovered. The field are just off its coast in the ocean. Many of the nations with excess oil will keep some of that at home to build their own infrastructures.

Oil prices are staying high whether the US can afford that or not.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says forget calling a financial bottom -- everything you need is right in front of you.

Do you think this week will finally end the oil inventory nonsense? Do you think this week could be the breakout where oil doesn't trade on the slight build or the "heavier than expected" chatter?

I sure hope so.

Yesterday was a horrible market, but midday, when the market was really beginning to roll over, the whole complex turned. This was quite an achievement given the overwhelming collapse of the futures and the propensity of the bears to push things down.

Today with the futures breaching $140 -- remember, I think they're on the way to $150 -- we can see the error of relying on these numbers, which I have said for years now are meaningless. Witness how many times the inventories have been more full than expected and yet oil has doubled.

I want to go back to the cheaper-than-oil stocks, though. Natural gas. Oil has to go down $65 to get to where natural gas is right now. Meaning that historically oil trades at six times the price of natural gas. So natural gas -- forget the season, which is supposed to be bad for nat gas -- needs to come higher.

Much higher.

"Shipping stocks can be a good port in a financial storm," says Ivan Martchev in Leeb's Income Performance Letter. Here, the advisor looks at Teekay LNG Partners (NYSE: TGP).

"Some shippers take their chances in the spot market; these should be avoided. Teekay, however, offers a high yield and lower earnings volatility due to its lower-than-average exposure to the spot market.

"Teekay is well exposed to the growing market for liquidified natural gas (LNG). The growth profile of the LNG market is compelling. The vast majority of the world's natural gas reserves are stranded in Eurasia and the Middle East, while consumption is greatest in the U.S., Far East and Europe.

"Imports of LNG to the U.S., for example, are expected to increase by more than 400%, by some estimates, between now and 2012. Clearly, there is wide-eyed potential growth in the LNG market.

"There are also high barriers to entry in its transportation since it requires huge investments in loading and reliquification terminals for highly specialized ships. Given the support of its parent company -- Teekay Corp. -- Teekay LNG Partners is a force far larger than its relatively small size would have your believe at first blush.

"The company's growth is virtually assured for years to come due to the imbalance in the geographic distribution of reserves and consumers of natural gas. Teekay LNG Partners, yielding 7.7%, is a publicly-traded master limited partnership, which means you should look into the peculiarities of tax treatment of distributions."

Each day, Steven Halpern's TheStockAdvisors.com offers the latest market commentary and favorite investment ideas from the nation's leading financial newsletter advisors.

It was only a few weeks ago I was thinking, how much higher can this one go but sure enough, Precision Drilling Services TR (NYSE: PDS), the Canadian Trust went higher. In my last report, PDS announced its monthly dividend distribution. The current yield is 5.6% down from the 10% range it was paying when I first recommended it, but still a good return.

Today PDS closed at $28.04, a new 52-week high, now 81.24% above the $15.47 it was five months ago. During the trading day it touched on $28.12.

Last month Precision reported a 33% loss and still the share price is moving up. This supports all the reports that keep popping up regarding the price differential between natural gas and oil suggesting the the NG prices are going up and that drilling companies like PDS will be swamped. Although PDS has had a rough trailing 12 months, creating the buying opportunity, the stock price is clearly being lifted by anticipation of a bright future.

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. He writes the columns Chasing Value and Serious Money. Disclosure: I own shares of PDS.

Last Friday, April 18, Precision Drilling Services TR (NYSE: PDS), the Canadian Trust, announced that the Board of Trustees has approved a cash distribution for the month of April 2008 of $0.13 per trust unit of Precision. The distribution will be payable on May 15, 2008 to unit holders of record on April 30, 2008.

The current dividend yield of 5.8% remains very generous and far above most other stocks in the sector. After some of my high dividend stock recommendations either under performed or simply cut their distribution, it is reassuring to see that PDS not only is maintaining its dividend, but in this particular case continues to pay out monthly, allowing for better compounding of the yield.

The stock closed today at $27.15, up 75.5% from $15.47 when I recommended the stock three months ago. If you got into the stock back then you would still be receiving over a 10% yield. Last year I had several high flyers but not all of them stayed up so I am watching Precision closely for signs of weakness or changes in the business.

Imagine a large recession in which one of the key energy components almost doubles in price. The tab for natural gas is up by almost double since last summer. That is the same natural gas which most people use to heat their homes. Being cold is not a lot of fun.

According to The Wall Street Journal, "Prices in the U.S. have risen 93% since late August as power-hungry nations like South Korea and Japan compete in a global natural-gas market."

Who says inflation is not a major threat to the US economy? Add to the natural gas spike the rising cost of oil which has pushed gasoline to all-time highs. Add to that increasing food prices due to the bump up in the price of grains such as wheat and corn. Those commodities are being used to product the alternate energy source ethanol.

The picture complicates the job that the Fed and Treasury have to do. Lowering interest rates often increases the ability of businesses and consumers to spend. That, in turn, pushes inflation higher. Not lowering rates could exacerbate the credit crisis and lead to more home and credit card defaults.

There is one silver lining to the cloud. Banks are not passing lower rates on to customers. They are hording the cash that they get from the Fed. It is an ugly reality, but consumers and small businesses do not have access to the capital which they would need to start spending money again.

None of that solves the natural gas problem per se, but it could mean that people will cut back a bit on how warm they keep their homes. That, at least, would be a start.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

Devon Energy (NYSE: DVN) is an oil/natural gas exploration company, with operations in the U.S., Canada, and abroad.

Readers of this space know that one argument forwarded here is that in the era of elevated energy prices, oil/natural gas companies are likely to remain promising plays for the foreseeable future, baring the discovery of a cheap, widely-available, alternative energy. And among oil/natural gas companies, Devon Energy is worth an evaluation.

Analysts like DVN's sizable proved oil/gas reserves of 2.34 billion barrels of oil equivalent. Production volume should increase 4-5% in 2007 and 7-11% in 2008. Analysts also like Devon's strategy decision to sell international assets with lower growth prospects. Meanwhile, the company's overall costs remain reasonable.

Oil plummeted $2.38 to $89.52 in early trading Wednesday after the U.S. Energy Information Agency announced that weekly crude oil inventories rose 4.3 million barrels to 287.1 million barrels, well above the 1.25 million barrel increase consensus estimate.

Heating oil fell 4 cents to $2.49, unleaded gasoline fell about 5 cents to $2.26, and natural gas fell about 4 cents to $8.15 per million BTUs.

However, despite the prospect of a U.S. recession that could lower oil demand, the International Energy Agency maintained its 2008 global oil demand forecast at 87.8 million barrels per day, a 2.3% increase from 2007, the organization announced Wednesday in a statement.

Still, the IEA qualified its 2008 oil demand projection by saying the estimate would be adjusted downward if evidence indicated the U.S. economy continues to slow.