Someone came up with the term "negative growth" because the word "shrinking" seemed too mundane. No matter. Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (NYSE:WMT) is very close to shrinking and negative growth here, in its home market. After saying it might grow 2% to 4%, then recently revising the figure down to 1.3%, Wal-Mart could only muster a 0.5% same-stores sales growth figure. For all we know, this could be revised downward later as Wal-Mart did in another recent month.

Despite revamped stores and discounting holiday goods, Wal-Mart may be reaching the end of its growth phase in the U.S.. It may simply have too many stores, too much market share, and too much competition from other large retailers like Target Corp. (NYSE:TGT). There are, of course, large online retailers like Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN), which did not even exist a decade ago.

According to the company's 10-Q, in its last full quarter Wal-Mart's international sales grew from $14.2 billion last year to $18.6 billion this year. That's 32% growth compared to 6% growth in the U.S.. While internationally, operating income grew from $799 million to $977 million, Wal-Mart's U.S. stores operating income was over $4 billion, so international has a ways to go to catch up. But, it will have to.

Since Wal-Mart has exited the South Korean and German markets, overseas growth may be a lot tougher.

Regardless, the "negative growth" may be starting for the huge retailer's US operations.

Douglas McIntyre is a partner at 24/7 Wall St.

Is Wal-Mart moving toward negative growth? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 30 Oct 2006 08:55:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.