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New home sales unexpectedly rise for first time in 6 months

U.S. new home sales unexpectedly rose 3.2% (PDF) to a seasonally adjusted, annualized pace of 526,000 in April 2008 -- the first rise in new home sales in six months, the U.S. Commerce Department announced Tuesday.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had expected April 2008 new home sales to register a 522,000 annualized rate.

Nevertheless, sales are still down about 42% in the last 12 months.

Meanwhile, inventories dipped to a 10.6-month supply in April 2008 at the current sales pace, compared to an 11-month supply in March 2008 and a 9.8-month supply in February 2008.

Also, the median sales price increased 9.1% in April 2008 to $246,100.

Sales rose in three regions: Northeast, up 42%; West, up 8.3%; and the Midwest, up 5.8%. Sales fell 2.4% in the South.

Economic Analysis: Sales did nudge-up slightly in April 2008, but the key stats remains the large, 10.6-month supply of unsold new homes and the 42% decline in new home sales compared to a year ago. A normal, healthy market has a 3-4 month supply of new homes for sale, and that fact, combined with the large decline in year-over-year sales, suggests a market with scant demand. Investors / traders should also ignore the one-month rise in the median sales price: a trend takes at least 3-4 months to form, and the higher one-month median price jump could simply reflect a large number of lower-priced homes taken off the market, or not sold.

March U.S. new home sales plunge 8.5% to 17-year low

U.S. new home sales fell to a seasonally-adjusted, annualized pace of 526,000 in March 2008 - - a 17-year low, the U.S. Commerce Department announced Thursday. (pdf)

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had expected March 2008 new home sales to register a 580,000 annualized rate.

Sales have now declined for five consecutive months, and are down 36.6% in the last 12 months.

Meanwhile, inventories surged to an 11-month supply at the March 2008 sales rate, up from a 9.8-month supply in February. Inventories are at their highest level since 1981. A healthy housing market typically has a 3-4 month supply.

Also, February 2008 sales were revised down slightly, to 575,000 from the earlier released 590,000.

In addition, the median sales price of new houses sold in March 2008 was $227,600; the average sales price was $292,200. The median sales price has now decreased 13.3% in the past 12 months.

Sales fell in every U.S. region: declining 19.4% in the Northeast, 12.9% in the West, 12.5% in the Midwest, and 4.6% in the South.


Continue reading March U.S. new home sales plunge 8.5% to 17-year low

January new home sales fall 2.8% to 588k annual rate, below estimate

Sales of new homes fell 2.8% to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 588,000 in January 2008, the U.S. Commerce Department announced Wednesday (pdf). Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had expected a seasonally adjusted rate of 600,000.

Meanwhile, the December 2007 seasonally-adjusted total was revised to 605,000.

The median sales price of new houses sold in January 2008 fell 4.3% to $216,000; the average sales price rose 0.7% to $276,600.

In addition, the seasonally-adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of January 2008 was 482,000 -- representing a 9.9-month supply at current the current sales rate.

Economist Steve Affinito told BloggingStocks Wednesday the January 2008 new home sales data is in-line with earlier data on existing home sales, indicating that the housing slump is far from over.

Continue reading January new home sales fall 2.8% to 588k annual rate, below estimate

New home sales fall 4.7% in December to a 12-year low

Purchases of new homes fell 4.7% in December 2007 to a 12-year low, the U.S. Commerce Department reported Monday, in a statement (pdf).

Sales fell to an annual rate of 604,000 homes -- the fewest since February 1995. Economists had expected a 645,000 annual rate.

Difficult 'comps'

In 2007, sales dropped 26% to 774,000, compared to 1.05 million in 2006. However, economists cautioned that the 2007 new home sale drop should be evaluated with a qualification in mind: the new home market registered 4 consecutive years of above-trend growth, which creates "difficult camparisons" -- hard statistics to beat, year-over-year.

In addition, the seasonally adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of December was 495,000. The statistic represents a supply of 9.6 months at the current sales rate.

Continue reading New home sales fall 4.7% in December to a 12-year low

The economy and the Fed: When good news is bad!

Several major pieces of economic news were released this morning, and all were good. Personal Spending rose more than expected, the fastest growth in two years. The Chicago PMI report rose more than expected as well. The Michigan Consumer Sentiment report seemed to hold its own. In addition, the core inflation number came in within the Fed's target range.

This is a major contrast to the numbers earlier in the week. Durable Goods and Consumer Confidence reports were terrible, and both Existing and New Home Sales indicated that there appears to be no end in sight for the housing slump. The only good number was Second-Quarter GDP. However, this was prior to the turmoil created in the markets by the credit crisis.

Then, why did the stock market rally on the bad news and is going down today on these positive economic reports? It's the liquidity. The stock market is driven by money and credit. As there is greater availability and lower cost, the market performs better. Who is the ultimate gatekeeper for this? You guessed it: the Federal Reserve.

Continue reading The economy and the Fed: When good news is bad!

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